jerpy
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On 4/11/2019 at 7:22 AM, jerpy said:
Me too. Still got a stake in case of any explosive upside but loaded some more profit to GCM, AAZ and had some ROXG.
Hmm, not so smart! Should have, would have, could have ...........a lot more left in for upside. Was a struggle adding to my smaller holding at anything around 43c. Big news today, good spike on good news.
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AAZ overdue an update.
Shares have largely been treading water this year, why I'm unsure but maybe it's a bit of impatience from "want it now" traders or possibility that the long overdue Geotech helicopter survey has not yet been delivered. However, for the latter the market was informed the sheer scale of data has caused the delay, which personally I take as encouraging.
Bill Morgan though by his consrvative standards, is sounding excited (see below).
Recently Gadir Jorc was updated, Ordubad initial exploration potential starting to be mapped out and Q1 came in far better than previous years with the benefit of the Flotation plant and SART processing this winter; even a temporary delay with the off taker holding back copper sales(now resolved) couldn't put that much of a dampener on ever growing excellent financial health.
So it's all lining up this month. More exploration commentary due for Gedabek, results and dividend news (which sounds like a small uside surprise coming) and the Heli news all looking set to light the fuse again. Shares currently 81.5p.....doubt for long!
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9 hours ago, drbubb said:
SWITCHING Strategy
WM > GCM > WM > GCM ...
The latest switch... would have been selling WM to buy GCM @12.5%. I do sell some WM recently, and Bought GCM.wt.B at lower levels
(I find it amazing how well some of these Ratios look on charts.)
For someone who managed it purely on instinct(call it luck if you wish), it’s definitely amazing, as it’s not a strategy, more just happened.
Very revealing Dr B.
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6 hours ago, drbubb said:
SOLD SOME (alot!) at higher levels, including 42 cents and 44 cents
WM.t ... update
I think I might get a chance to reload at maybe 33-34 cents
Me too. Still got a stake in case of any explosive upside but loaded some more profit to GCM, AAZ and had some ROXG.
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Nice presentation and I suppose I’ve reflected on yours and others comments this week, so been adding more back with WM.t profits.
Seem to have a nice flip flop between the pair in weighting’s, more luck than anything but they seemed to have risen and fallen conveniently for me to do so.
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Bought a little stake start of week in Roxg, will make my mind up about more later on.
Toe in water for me.
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On 3/29/2019 at 2:41 AM, drbubb said:
I let a few more shares go at 34 cents yesterday.
May buy back, if gold shares & WM correct
Wow nice spike up to 39.5c
I’ve let go quite a lot last 2 sessions only have 1/3 of my core holding now. Flipped a fair few into GCM previous 2 sessions.
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21 hours ago, hector said:
No reason for good to always triumph. No one cares about this issue anymore just flip a coin ffs.
True it’s very boring hearing it every day but then general politics and most politicians bore me easily.
However, I voted leave and I don’t see how in a so called democracy, incompetence from politicians should deny a decision in a referendum. End of.
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On 3/30/2019 at 12:10 AM, drbubb said:
'NIGEL, NIGEL!' Moment crowd ERUPTS as Nigel Farage delivers POWERFUL Brexit speech
THIS is the moment a crowd of Brexiteer protestors burst into joyful chanting as Nigel Farage delivered a passionate Brexit speech.
How I wish this guy was a leader of a more popular party. He’s stood up to the Brussels “cartel” for years and still not got his reward.
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On 3/27/2019 at 10:27 PM, drbubb said:
Wallbridge had a super day, and ROXG was up on a good earnings report
Poor relative performance for MUX continues - not a good day
WM.t $0.335 +0.04, +13.6%
MUX : $ 1.64 -0.09, -5.20%
Gdxj : $32.88 -0.59, -1.76%
GLD : 123.65 -0.65, -0.52%
Gcm.t $ 3.83 -0.03, -0.78%
Roxg.t $ 0.93 +0.03, +3.33%I can almost hear MUX barking like a dog, while WM sings, "we are the champions"
Ha, ha. Suppose I should feel slightly smug ditching MUX, cashing in half my GCM.t and going more overweight in WM.t but I just don’t get why MUX is such a dog other than the short position increased over time.
Starting to take an interest in ROXG
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5 hours ago, drbubb said:
WM up 3.5 cents on heavy volume
Nice job getting back in
I’m pretty happy on switching more from GCM to WM too, worked out well after GCM slightly disappointed me.
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4 hours ago, drbubb said:
"ARBITRAGE" - seems like some GCM posters have never heard (or properly understood) this word.
The warrants were too cheap, so people were buying the warrants and selling the shares.
And some people got SHORT by doing that aggressively. Some posters on the Bullboard seemed confused - like these guys:
RE:GCM and short interest outstanding : 28th of FEB
Latest short report indicates a reduction of 105,253 shares, leaving the outstanding short position (as of March 15) at 1,062,195 shares.Over a million shares remaining short is one heck of a LOT of shares to cover on as low a volume as this is prone to trade at. And, it doesn't make much of any sense to me that warrant holders would be holding it short either. The only convertible debt (this new issue) is too far out of the money to make any sense, nor does it seem to make sense why the 2024 warrant holders (that have deep in the money for some time now) would bother shorting it just to continue holding the warrant that long ... unless they thought price was going lower and they would close the short.
What am I missing? Anyone care to speculate?
/ 2 /
Given the time frame of when the short position grew to that size... I'm rather inclined to suspect there may have been a fair bit of shorting going on in front of an anticipated (lower priced) equity offering. But, that deal was very abruptly canceled (March 1.) And, considering how few shares the short position has been reduced the first half of March, I'm also inclined to think there will continue to be some serious upward presure on the stock price for some time yet... much more so if gold continues its march back towards 1350. And, if/when by change the price rises (or is pushed) back over 4, there just might be a bit of a rush to get short positions closed...
but, what do I know, eh?
Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#WWukyjpffZY7b40E.99In my case: Because the wts. were relatively cheaper,
I downsized my GCM share position as I bought warrants - But I never got to the point where I had enough cheap wts, that I was shorting shares
Now the arbitrage opportunity is smaller, so it makes sense to hold both positions (each well in excess of 10K shs & 10K wts), as I await higher prices.
Then I will SELL first whichever side is most highly valued (relatively over-valued)
GCM.wt.b vs GCM ... 2-yrs : fr. 4/24/17 : 9/15/18 : C$2.21 Strike price, April 30, 2024 expiry, 12.1m wtB outstanding
DATE=C$: GCM.t Wt.B-, vol.-- : Ratio: ITM-$: TimeV: 50%i: AdjTV, as%G :
09/06/18: $2.16: 0.710, 00.0k : 32.9%: 0.000: 0.710 : 0.000 : 0.710 : 32.9% :
09/28/18: $2.25: 0.970, 00.0k : 43.1%: 0.040: 0.930 : 0.020 : 0.950 : 42.2% :
10/31/18: $2.32: 0.910, 66.8k : 39.2%: 0.110: 0.820 : 0.055 : 0.875 : 37.7% :
11/30/18: $2.53: 1.280, 22.1k : 50.6%: 0.320: 0.960 : 0.160 : 1.120 : 44.3% :
12/12/18: $2.90: 1.400, 29.7k : 48.3%: 0.690: 0.710 : 0.345 : 1.055 : 36.4% :
12/31/18: $2.82: 1.400, 00.8k : 49.6%: 0.610: 0.790 : 0.305 : 1.095 : 38.8% :
01/03/19: $3.18: 1.590, 54.5k : 50.0%: 0.970: 0.620 : 0.485 : 1.105 : 34.7% :
01/28/19: $3.36: 1.630, 26.7k : 48.5% : 1.150: 0.480 : 0.575 : 1.055 : 31.4% :02/28/19: $4.37: $2.48, 15.9k : 56.8% : 2.160: 0.320 : 1.080 : 1.400 : wt.High Close !
02/28/19: $4.40: $2.41, 15.9k : 54.7% : 2.200: 0.210 : 1.100 : 1.310 :
03/21/19: $3.80: $1.90, 33.9k : 50.0% : 1.590: 0.310 : 0.795 : 0.795 :
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Average: $2.43: 1.054 : 43.4%: 0.220: 0.834 : 0.110 : 0.944: 38.8% :Default now seems to be: Wt.B trades at 50% of GCM.
At higher prices, the Pct, should rise, since if wts are 50% of GCM at $4.42, there will be zero TV.
Yeah I got what you were saying and has I’d seen the disconnect too; don’t know why in truth, I just don’t do the warrants.
Totally get your position though.
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I’ve took more of my money off last week, shame I didn’t cash more above $4 like yourself Dr B.
However, I’ve averaged around 40% return without doing an exact calculation, so I can’t be too unhappy, yet somehow feel opportunity missed.
Will see how my fingers itch with remaining 50% left as still well in profit, just prefer to add to Wallbridge position amongst others.
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Wow!!!
Can remember talking to Frizzers about these what seems like yesterday and the dividends; these were one of my favourite goldies, for that reason. Sold when they were sliding and can’t believe having ditched them off my watchlist, how they have fallen so much!
What the heck happened here?
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You’re not the only one that took profits on the spike, have to say I’m buying again today and will add vigorously at this level.
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6 minutes ago, drbubb said:
MUX is not getting the Good News it needs, and the stock is back to $1,65
Bad News instead...
McEwen Mining Suspends Quarterly Dividend; Operating Issues Result in Lower Revenue
Wished I’d stayed out! Anyhow in the words of a dragon, I’m out......(and staying out for the foreseeable).
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Yes I’ll give them credit for seeing the error.
I’ve not sold any today, if anything was tempted to buy and had I sold half as you had done, probably would have bought half of those sold back. Just going to sit out the ones I cashed in as close to $4 again anyway, see where it settles and if much comes out of the PDAC where I’m sure it will given their presence.
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1 hour ago, drbubb said:
Gran Colombia Gold Announces C$20,000,000 Convertible Debenture Bought Deal
- and Termination of Previously Announced Equity Offering
... Gran Colombia also announced the termination of its C$25,000,000 best efforts offering of units, previously announced on March 1, 2019...
In other words, their dumb decision and market reaction caused a rethink.
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Bit gutted I only took a little profit at $4.34. That drop felt a a real kick but I’m staying sanguine about them and hoping for more clarity next week.
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Keep an eye on LAC for next year.
http://www.lithiumamericas.com/
Used to trade them under Western Lithium days but missed the spike 12 months or so back as had given up on lithium plays. The near term projects are interesting for me.
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Next week could be interesting for AAZ.
Two investors presentations in town. One of which is for Hardman, who have published their research note. Never one to get over enthused by them but shows the dispabetween a failing house broker and their own forecast. Make of it as you find Https://www.hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Anglos-Asian-Mining-Hardman-Co-Investor-Forum-February-2019-WEB.pdf
Could we get jorc news too? Fair bit of news flow coming next couple of months for sure.
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On 2/14/2019 at 1:40 PM, hector said:
Really surprised if this won't bust 1.82 resistance today given the robust gold price.
Maybe as Dr Bubb says, it just needed that little bit of help with the gold price. I’m back in today, nothing major but dipped a toe.
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phew, glad I wasn’t greedy with MDR.
Was the drop an over reaction, it’s going to have a very low p.e number again. Not tempted back in but see it bouncing today.
ARIS (ex.GCM) 200k > 350k+ oz/yr Gold miner
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
Hope there is a spike within those channels, I’m back to around half my highest position now, the lows of last 3 sessions tempted me to add back more.