G0ldfinger

There was an even bigger shortage of Marks in 1923. And, they were just as worthless. In 1920 the value was less than 10% than that in 1914, and so in 1923. Someone who lost 90% or 99%, will he care so much about the difference? Will you care so much wether your Yens will have lost 90%, 95% or 99% of their value? No, you are confused. It was already worthless. But there was still a difference, which is the one below. That is essentially what I said and I gave reasons for it (and except for the fact that "not a good store of value" is a gross understatement). But many were wiped out already in 1920 anyway. The acceleration of the decay was important.

Even in the end it was not worthless, but worth 4.2 trillion Marks a US-Dollar. Apparently you did not get my point. The Mark was almost as worthless in 1920 as it was in 1923 - namely pretty much zero. The actual catastrophe lies in the speed of depreciation which very much accelerates towards the end. This hyper-acceleration is what really lets the economy not function anymore. The currency/bonds/insurance/fixed income holders had been wiped out years before. That's why it is so dangerous to ignore the possibility of HI. You may get wiped out long before things go super-critical. Just look at real interest rates right now.

Watch those with the large savings: China, Japan, Pimco. A trigger might come from that corner, and then the other bond and money holders could panic too. But it might be slow process, it doesn't have to come overnight IMO. We're on the path, just look at gold.

The funny thing is that the currency was ALREADY worthless (i.e. it didn't finally lose it, although total money supply became worth less and less IIRC). So, it is not about the level of worthlessness, but about the acceleration of it that makes the ultimate economic catastrophe. So, to shape this into a preciser thought, if HI is slow enough(?) such that at least the economically most active people can stay afloat (like in Weimar for a time since the unions were strong), there won't be a total economic collapse. However, a large part of the population (savers, pensioners, the insured) can be (were!) completely wiped out already. This is a major catastrophe and impoverishes many, but it is not yet total collapse. Total collapse comes when no one is able to keep up anymore and paper money simply makes no sense at all anymore.

The Fed/Pimco has the money. The money then goes to those who have the commodities (farmers, miners, ...). Someone always has the money. And that someone will get rid of it if too much of it is sloshing around.

No, I think the x17 part took from 1914 to 1920, or so.

See signature.

Also something to keep in mind, the final Weimar collapse came AFTER prices had already gone x17. I.e. at that time, many (pensioners, bond/insurance holders) were already ruined. So, there really was already a hyperinflation BEFORE what many see as THE hyperinflation.

I fear that the Yen is one of the bigger turds out there. I also see no reason whatsoever why the Yen should have any chance of outperforming Gold. Gold in Yen is a very strong buy. Still far off the all-time highs. http://gold.approximity.com/since1971/Gold_JPY.html

But the next leg down is approaching rapidly.

Great comment on the Edinburgh bubble. http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/iain...erest-1.1046011

They should do that in the UK too. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-04/c...ome-prices.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambro...operty-bubbles/

Maybe time to buy EUR-Gold. After all, gold has seen one of the biggest sell-offs in over 10 years. http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold_EUR_LOG.html

http://jsmineset.com/2010/08/03/the-lowdow...-to-the-dollar/

Ja, something seems to go on: http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/USDEUR.html

Besides Eire, Cornwall and the Highlands look pretty solid.

http://gold.approximity.com/since2010/Gold_GBP.html

Great charts. Thanks.

I think the corporate sector has to delever just as much as the private sector. Think of all the pirate equity.

In Japan there was some shrinking in total debt over the past decade, according to the chart below. It wasn't all that much, and can possibly mostly be attributed to the popping of the property bubble. Japanese CPI rate stayed mostly positive, as we know. All this as one of the most sucessful exporters. IMO, it won't look any like this for the US or the UK. Where is the booming export industry? Tax revenue, etc.?

What debt exactly will deflate? And how will this make situations similar?

Maybe he would have been more succesful in promising "and End to High Tide and Low Tide".

So, everyone is going to be a huge a exporter with a huge surplus? Hmmm, I guess we could all export to Mars, or wherever the ETs live, that are discussed on other threads. Surplus planet Earth - I love it! Maybe we can all buy Martian debt then, and be rich!

"Austerity" - even if it is not real, it might be enough to pop that bubble.