marmite

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing/art...id=166&ct=5 Tumbling pound cheers UK gold investors 29 November 2008 The tumbling pound is good news for UK gold investors who have seen its sterling value hit new heights despite the metal's dollar price falling since the start of the year. A rally in the price of gold over the past month has seen it rise from about $740 per ounce, at the start of November, to $814 this week. And while its value remains under the $840 seen at the beginning of 2008, and considerably below its peak of more than $1,000 in July, the falling pound has meant that the dollar-priced precious metal has achieved new heights in sterling terms. On New Year's Day, £1 was worth $1.99, and an ounce of gold would have cost a UK investor £422, but yesterday £1 was worth $1.53 and, despite its fall in dollar terms since January, that ounce of gold was worth £532 – or 21% more. The pound was still hovering around the $2 mark when gold hit its $1,011 high in July, translating to about £500. Investors in the safe haven have seen the gold price yo-yo this year, rising from $840 per ounce at the start of January, to a peak of more than $1,000 in summer, before falling back to below $750 in October. This fall followed a similar decline at the end of the summer, which had been halted by the acceleration of the global banking crisis after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, in September. The volatility in the dollar price of gold has not dampened the appetite for the metal dubbed 'the ultimate safe haven'. UK dealers in physical gold, who sell coins and bullion, have seen queues of investors outside. However, UK investors have been warned not to rely on the pound weakening further and bolstering their gold investment. Thomas Becket, head of global investment strategy at PSigma Investment Management and manager of its Balanced Managed Fund of Funds says he is a firm believer in gold in its own right, with $1,000 as a realistic target. He says: 'I remain very bearish of the pound medium term, but in the short term it is probably oversold, so the positive currency translation might have run its course for now. 'Looking further forward the pound is now seen as a risk asset. With UK rates going down towards 0%, gold's relative attraction is greatly enhanced for UK investors. 'Gold is the ultimate safe haven asset and a proper store of value in difficult times.' Experts predict that the price of gold should remain firm despite the slowing global economy and the disappearance of fears over inflation, which normally boost its price. Meanwhile, the pound is predicted to continue to struggle as the Bank of England cuts rates to try and ease the pain of recession and UK borrowing soars to pay for tax cuts and higher Government borrowing. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, says: 'The pound could obviously go much lower still although we are not convinced that it will given the pretty dismal outlook for the US and the Eurozone as well. However, even if the pound does not fall much further, it seems highly likely to stay at a very low level for an extended period.'

Try ATS and Chards

Very interesting comments bigtbigt.......... It is all about timing I believe a deflation scare will be followed by inflation. Hey gold dropped since I posted this, lets see what non-farm brings tomorrow

I am trying to get my head around this. Interest rates are cut by 1.5%, with more cuts on the table, deflation scare is citied as the reason, yadda yadda But we all know that inflation is on the cards. Should I be adding to the gold stack today or waiting. Surely gold paper price has to be seen to be deflating to keep up the show ?????? Maybe now is the time to hold cash for 3 - 4 months and await early 2009 purchases ?? What do you all think ????? ( As already stated, I am only adding to stack, insurance and 10% net wealth stuff already covered )

This is a excellent post and very thought provoking on axes thread. It was posted by hotrod and is from goldrunner ( not seen his stuff before ). Hope I have covered all the copyright stuff http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread....66&page=527 Goldrunner It is rumored that a great trader once said, "If I could only see past the tip of my nose.....with both hands." The question, here, is whether we are in a true deflationary environment or whether we are in a market panic created by fear of the deflation in the financial sector. The real answer at this point is hard to know for sure since both situations look the same in terms of market selling, though we are getting close to the time when the answer will be obvious. Back in 05 and 06 when I worked on the LT fractal expectations into the 4th quarter of 2008, that work was based on this being a "panic", but I still had my targets in the Dow down to below 7000 for a new low since 2000.......with a sharp drop for Gold and the PM stocks into this deflation scare bottom. I was using the Gold chart from the 70's to work off of, and in the 70's at this point Gold dropped down to re-test the "historic highs" so 740 would fit pretty nicely. I was also working off the Dow chart of the 70's for the expected low below 7,000. A "deflationary environment" and a "deflationary panic" are similar in that the market will drop with investors tossing everything out the window. This is because in both cases the "investor psychology" is exactly the same. The two are different in that in a "deflationary environment" we have an environment that will not change for a long time, like many years to a decade. In a "deflationary panic" we have investors who are not processing true reality of the situtation short-term so they are throwing everything out in a shorter-term cycle at odds with the real fundamentals of the market. Now, I know that the many will read this to this point and say, "Aha! GR, we are in a real deflationary environment because look at all the bad debt out there- look at the derivative problems- look at the funny nose on Bennie's face." Well, when we are talking about a long-term "environment"- we are talking abot the rocks and trees and air around you- not something that can change rapidly in the short run, then change back. If you look at any true deflationary environment, you are talking about currency deflation. The environment might start with massive debt, but the currency is strong and at new highs from the get-go and as the market starts to sharply tank the currency just keeps going higher....and as the market continues to tank, the currency just keeps on going higher and higher.......as everybody sells everything to get their hands on dollars to pay their bills, etc. That is NOT what we have here. The "true market top" in the Dow was in 2000. Shortly thereafter, the Dollar started to plunge, falling from around 120 down to around 72. The new high in the Dow was a "false high", not coming from increased buying power of the Dow, but of a lower buying power based on a devalued currency. (See the chart of the Dow in the 1970's for the same situation.) Thus, the chart of the Dow:Gold shows no new top after 2000, but a continually falling chart graph. The recent run higher in the US Dollar is but a blip for about 10 points from about 72 to about 82 (as also seen in the 70's scenario.) In fact, even most of the Dollar blip upward came BEFORE the real panic in selling in the markets- not simultaneous with the selling panic. There was a reported CB intervention in the Dollar that created the bulk of it. If we had a true deflationary environment unfolding, I'd expect the Dollar to be rocketing back toward new highs, but no, the Dollar is in a gazillion year downtrend at this time........only a short-term chart distortion caused by an intervention to create doubt and slow things down. The Fed has already announced the Dollar inflation to come in massive terms, including changing laws to make it happen. With a "panic" markets will usually not complete until the "cyles" are complete as so many traders look to the cycles to trade, and as so many traders have investors on the run in a blind momentum panic move. It seems to me that the momentum bottom for the historic down cycles in the markets comes in the 3rd week of October- usually between the 18th and 25th...on a Monday into a Tuesday. The truth is that investors once in a panic just get scared and start selling as the whole thing steam rolls downward, creating margin calls for many others. The pressure from the margin calls prevents those who might be looking at the real fundamentals at hand from holding investments they think will do well into the future, as they are forced to sell what they can sell to stay solvent. Such is the investing life of today with margin. In the background of this deflation scare, the Fed has announced the largest Dollar inflation in the history of the galaxy. In the background of this deflation scare, the Fed and Treasury has gotten a Bill passed that guarantees they can create the largest Dollar inflation ever in the Galaxy. In that same background the Treasury has take massive debt that was marking the insolvency of financial institutions onto its books. This WAS an issue of insolvency versus the idea of lack of liquidity, but that is changing rapidly as the Govy takes the bad assets on its books and as the Govy takes partial ownership in the offending financial sector. Once it has done that, then you must realize that the govy is backed by the full printing ability of the Federal Reserve. A Central Bank can print all it wants so it cannot go bankrupt. Since the Central Bank will print whatever it needs to to back the govy.........do you really want to invest in the US Dollar under this scenario? The Fed and Treasury want the Dollar lower, and they will get it in the long run. They now have complete power to print and to monetize anything they want. Back around USD 73 or 74 when some of us would note that the Dollar rise is just going to be a blip, some short-term traders got all excited when the dollar started to break above that level. Our answer was "So what?" It is only a "Blip." It is still only a blip becausw we were citing LT charts for the Dollar- something many short-term traders cannot fathom- anything over X number of months. Yet, the USD still sits on a cliff. During a panic anyone but a short-term trader must step back and take a look at what the real environment is for the next few years. Is that environment likely to be one of Dollar inflatioin or one of Dollar deflation? The Dollar trend LT and IT is down. The charts of the Fed's balance sheet has exploded upward as the Fed has recently gotten approval to print to the Heavens. That is the basics of the fundamentals for the Dollar going forward. I don't know about you, but with the Fed and Treasury doing what they are doing, my expectations are that this will end up being the "deflation scare" I'd suggested a couple of years, ago, into this time frame. If that it true do the "Dollar Inflation" being the correct expectation, then I also expect Gold, Silver, and the PM stocks to continue to track the movements of the stagflationary 70's.......including the Dow, BTW. Thus, over the next 4 to 6 years, I'd expect Gold to run up to 3,000 or 5,000, or 8,000 or even 50,000- depending on the Dollar inflation that is starting anew after a short break. In the 70's the one PM stock index I recently found with data from the 70's showed this same sharp retracement in that PM stock index at this juncture, but after it was over that PM stock index moved up to around 17 times the previous high when the PM parabola took effect. (These are historical facts.) After this little blipin the Dollar in the 70's chart, the Dollar completely fell off the cliff. Gold ran back to new highs- probably to 1250 to around 1500. After the Dow plunged, then global competitive currency devaluations took over giving some support to the USD on the chart. Somewhere there after, Gold continued up into the parabola. So, you tell me- What is the Fed going to do in terms of the Dollar? If they are going to ramp up the printing, then I want to be long the PM complex across the board. If they are not going to ramp up Dollar printing, then I want to be in Gold, Dollars, and Bonds. Personally, I think that second option is completely laughable so I was buying PM stocks today.....looking for great bargains into next week......then possibly into the retest of final bottom in about 30 days. Personally, I think it will fall under the guise of a re-test. Take care

Browns Broadcasting company progaganda video lunch time today. Devali gold jeweller, business in down by 40% on this time last year. It wasnt just any retailer but a gold retailer. Starts at 11:45 minutes if you cant stand watching declan plug another internet company http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00dz...Lunch_13102008/ mmmmm, thats why every bullion dealer in london is out of stock coininvestdirects only 1oz coins in stock are 1996 lunars @ £100 over spot apmex have been out of stock for days, they now have some 1oz eagles in @ $100 overspot ( usually $25 ) The us mint cant keep up with demand The austrian mint cant keep up with demand The goverments all speak and eveything is now fixed. Stock markets are up 7%, gold is down 2% and oil is on sale at $80 a barrel. Me thinks cgnao called it correct yesterday " Suckers Rally ". I bet the markets are a different story by the end of the week

Unfortunately you cant avoid the 17.5% vat on Silver. Coininvest is the cheapest on the web for silver. The Silver Philharmonic 1oz. 2008 look to be a good buy, they where about £10.82 earlier this evening. They sell on ebay at £14+ all day long. Just remember that the gold and silver market is very volitial. The market can go up as well as down and if you are buying now, its when the market is at front and centre of a lot of peoples minds. Its not a get rich quick scheme. Saying this you are buying the ulitimate insurance policy, the one and only policy that has a 4000 year track record. Make sure you do all your own research and make your own decissions. Only spend money that you feel comfortable with. You can always spend more later on. Good Luck

1.6893 now

I'll do my bit to add the 3 pages a day Pinch Punch First day of the month And on a more serious note http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bf8246aa-8f13-11...?nclick_check=1 Wealthy investors hoard bullion By Javier Blas in Kyoto Published: September 30 2008 19:00 | Last updated: September 30 2008 19:00 Investors in gold are demanding “unprecedented” amounts of bullion bars and coins and moving them into their own vaults as fears about the health of the global financial system deepen. Industry executives and bankers at the London Bullion Market Association annual meeting said the extent of the move into physical gold was unseen and driven by the very rich. EDITOR’S CHOICE Full coverage: Global financial crisis - Sep-30Banking’s crisis of confidence deepens - Sep-30Martin Wolf: Risking another depression - Sep-30Editorial Comment: Failure and blame game - Sep-30Full coverage: US elections 2008 - Sep-30Comment: Banking rules - tread carefully - Sep-30“There is an enormous pick-up in investment demand. I have never seen a market like this in my 33-year career,” said Jeremy Charles, chairman of the LBMA. “The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars.” The move comes as fears grow among investors over the losses at investment vehicles previously considered almost risk-free, such as money funds. Philip Clewes-Garner, associate director of precious metals at HSBC, added that investors were not flying into gold simply because they saw it as a haven amid Wall Street’s woes. “It is a flight into gold because it is a physical asset,” he said. “Vault staff are also doing overtime,” another banker at the LBMA meeting said, adding that investors in some countries were paying premiums of up to $25 an ounce above the London spot price to secure scarce gold bars. Spot gold prices in London on Tuesday traded at about $900 an ounce, more than 25 per cent above the level before Lehman Brothers’ collapse. Although some traders said the rush into physical gold could boost prices, others cautioned that prices were depressing jewellery demand, capping any price gain. Industry executives said gold refineries and government mints were working at full throttle to keep up with investor demand, but acknowledged they were suffering from shortages, particularly on coins. Johan Botha, a spokesman for the Rand Refinery in South Africa, which manufactures the Krugerrand, the world’s most popular gold coin, said the plant was now running at full capacity seven days a week. “Even so, now and then we have shortages,” he said. The Austrian mint, which manufactures the Vienna Philharmonic, a popular gold coin in Europe, said it had extended work to the weekends to accommodate soaring demand. Last week, the US mint suspended the sale of its American Buffalo coin after it ran out of stocks.

Ker, can you see us testing 824 this week Man, if that happens good luck trying to get hold of any physical, the shops are pretty much stripped bare at the moment

Good spot What is the all time high for 1oz of bullion gold bought from a dealer ??? i.e. a scratch up kruggerand, no wise cracks on numis

Yes a scrap dealer would take them at spot minus whatever the market spread was at the time. Bullion dealers will also take them. ( this is only for 1 kilo plus tho, not just a handfull of coins ), also you have ebay and craigslist market places for smaller amounts. Siver is Silver Gold is Gold The Buy / Sell spread will move with the supply and demands in the market. Look at today, you will get spot + from a lot of dealers for selling gold because of the uncertainty in the market no one is selling and everyone is buying. But when everyone wants to sell they will only give you spot minus.

If your not in the market I really wouldn't bother to much about the $50 saving you might make if the price drops to $800 or $750 at this stage. This bull is angry and wants to charge Buy your insurance while you still can. Insurance always costs a lot of money and you should always hope that this money is wasted, but you will be damm glad if you ever need to use it

If naked shorting is the reason ( its only my guesse ), then its because of paper gold ETFs and miner stocks.

Maybe in the small print it says except gold stocks

Good for gold stocks ???? http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-204.htm FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 2008-204 Washington, D.C., Sept. 17, 2008 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today took several coordinated actions to strengthen investor protections against “naked” short selling. The Commission’s actions will apply to the securities of all public companies, including all companies in the financial sector. The actions are effective at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008. “These several actions today make it crystal clear that the SEC has zero tolerance for abusive naked short selling,” said SEC Chairman Christopher Cox. “The Enforcement Division, the Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations, and the Division of Trading and Markets will now have these weapons in their arsenal in their continuing battle to stop unlawful manipulation.” In an ordinary short sale, the short seller borrows a stock and sells it, with the understanding that the loan must be repaid by buying the stock in the market (hopefully at a lower price). But in an abusive naked short transaction, the seller doesn't actually borrow the stock, and fails to deliver it to the buyer. For this reason, naked shorting can allow manipulators to force prices down far lower than would be possible in legitimate short-selling conditions. Today’s Commission actions, which are the result of formal rulemaking under the Administrative Procedure Act, go beyond its previously issued emergency order, which was limited to the securities of financial firms with access to the Federal Reserve’s Primary Dealer Credit Facility. Because the agency's exercise of its emergency authority is limited to 30 days, the previous order under Section 12(k)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 expired on Aug. 12, 2008. The Commission’s actions were as follows: Hard T+3 Close-Out Requirement; Penalties for Violation Include Prohibition of Further Short Sales, Mandatory Pre-Borrow The Commission adopted, on an interim final basis, a new rule requiring that short sellers and their broker-dealers deliver securities by the close of business on the settlement date (three days after the sale transaction date, or T+3) and imposing penalties for failure to do so. If a short sale violates this close out requirement, then any broker-dealer acting on the short seller’s behalf will be prohibited from further short sales in the same security unless the shares are not only located but also pre-borrowed. The prohibition on the broker-dealer’s activity applies not only to short sales for the particular naked short seller, but to all short sales for any customer. Although the rule will be effective immediately, the Commission is seeking comment during a period of 30 days on all aspects of the rule. The Commission expects to follow further rulemaking procedures at the expiration of the comment period. Exception for Market Makers from Short Selling Close-Out Provisions in Reg SHO Repealed The Commission approved a final rule to eliminate the options market maker exception from the close-out requirement of Rule 203((3) in Regulation SHO. This rule change also becomes effective five days after publication in the Federal Register. As a result, options market makers will be treated in the same way as all other market participants, and required to abide by the hard T+3 closeout requirements that effectively ban naked short selling. Rule 10b-21 Short Selling Anti-Fraud Rule The Commission adopted Rule 10b-21, which expressly targets fraudulent short selling transactions. The new rule covers short sellers who deceive broker-dealers or any other market participants. Specifically, the new rule makes clear that those who lie about their intention or ability to deliver securities in time for settlement are violating the law when they fail to deliver. This new rule is effective immediately.

This might be due to the SEC announcement on naked short selling. I dont know the details tho but it could allow the gold shares to rocket

Look at pre 1947 50% silver and pre 1920 90% silver uk coinage. Sixpences, florins, shillings etc These can be bought from ebay and I think Chards might sell them. You wont find them at spot tho, but saying that insurance always costs something Guarenteed silver content

ETFS’ physically-backed firms Metal Securities and Gold Bullion Securities, and Shell-backed Oil Securities, are unaffected by AIG’s problems, with ETFS reporting active markets in all of them. Paper Promises Take your chances

Funny regarding the " Gold Purists " quote Scary as sh*t regarding AIG

I would give ATS or Chards a bell, but I expect the prices to be high over spot

Anyone going to the bullion dealers today ???? ATS, Goldline, Chards, Apmex ???? Please post a insight as to how busy they are. Are the queues building up

Anyone buying in sterling will notice that 1oz coins are still damm expensive. Only just hitting £450 now, thats only the second time since January, the first being last month before £ fell off a cliff

Have you seen the new message on www.goldline.co.uk Update: There is a 3 week delivery time for our silver bars although they can still be ordered at the current price. Kilo bars are ready for immediate delivery I have not seen this before. Must be a lot of demand out there. Lots of talk on goldismoney regarding silver shortages. Edit : also gold bars....... 10 grams - Out of stock - 3 wks for delivery £ 162.75 Out 20 grams - Out of stock - 3 wks for delivery £ 314.00 Out Silver bars.................. 100 grams - 3 weeks delivery time £ 42.00 Out 250 grams - 3 weeks delivery time £ 101.75 Out 500 grams - 3 weeks delivery time £ 179.75 Out

Silver Sammy aint none too happy The DEATH of Silver Sammy... ...killed by the NEVER ENDING manipulation of prices by the "Corporate Mega-Bank Devils" in association w/ COMEX & the so-called "US Govt Regulators." Jesus f*ckin Christ people, take a good hard look around...EVERYTHING that was supposed to make the metals soar ( War in Middle East? Check. $4 Gas? Check. Massive Bank Failures? Check. ) has resulted in a HIGHER dollar & metals dropping like a Led Zeppelin. ...WHY? Because its ALL A SCAM...and no matter how many ASEs we got...IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE! ...but they weren't all bad times. The Silver Sammy Index was fun ( heres the secret of the SSI, I post whatever pops into my head & the price rises almost by accident! ) the mocking of Ted Butler & Izzy, $20 silver, ahhh, good times. ...but its a whole new ball game now...if oil slips below $100, ITS ALL OVER! Sell it all & buy in again at $4...thats right, $4. ...Im SELLING IT ALL this winter...hopefully we should get SOME type of price increase, but it doesn't matter either way, Im gone. I bought my first Engelhard 100oz at $561 ( incl postage ) so I should probably break even at worst. This is a new situation were dealing with. You guys know me, type 2 lines of whatever crazy sh*t pops into my head & vanish for 3 months...this is for real this time, start making your exit plans & soon. Meet the G that Killed Me. COMEX. http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=299181