Perishabull

There appear to be many interpretations here, eg one) being we're at a trend line and should expect a bounce or two) being the current downdraft is less than that of the prior two therefore expect it to go lower three) being the recent high only reached the mid-trendline therefore indicating bearish price action for gold I'd be interested to hear other alternatives. There are many ways to read a chart (which is perhaps why no commentary was included). There appears to be bearish implications for the trend but not immediately the price What's yours?

Ok ok ok, it's not youtube but hey. This is one of the best videos I've seen in a long time. Everyone should see this at least one time in their life. The majesty of Mandelbrot and classical music combined. Best viewed on Safari if using an Apple and with scaling off on fullscreen as it seems more smooth. Enjoy http://www.vimeo.com/9505449

I've just taken new long term positions in GDX and also GDXJ (I appreciate the timing might not be the best but wanted to fill a gap and this will be a position for years rather than months). I've been following Elliott Wave international for a while and although I think there is merit to it I am starting to think that Prechter's ultra bearish calls are simply a great form of advertising for EWI, it gets him a lot more marketing leverage (airtime on the networks) than it would if he were to call for a 15% correction for example. They are constantly pushing EWI and it's services regularly, this leads me to think there is a high turnover rate for subscribers. This year he published a chart showing how gold is a poor long-term investment, when measured against it's 80's high. That's like saying sugar has been a poor investment compared to it's previous long-term high of 66c or whatever. It smacks of denial frankly, if anyone were to tell you sugar is a bad investment because it hasn't reached it's long-term high of many years ago it would look ridiculous since you could have capitalised on the move from 9c - 30c via futures over the last 2 years. In my view Elliott waves really are only useful in conjunction with a series of other fundamental and technical analysis techniques. On it's own with sentiment metrics etc it is too narrow in assessing a market. People may want to check out the following sites that I like, I'm not sure if they have been posted here before. http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/ http://expectedreturns.blogspot.com/

Fun with fractals - looks like the rocket is off Chart from Gold versus Paper

Does anyone know where I could get a long term (ie from 1985 - present) chart of Silver priced in Yen?

US to build two new power stations This will bring a lot of retail investors into Uranium, other countries likely to play follow the leader Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) looks like a good option for a wide ranging Nuclear play. Any views on this ETF?

This is a good example of what can happen if you only get 4 hours sleep. Apologies. That said it is rather striking how solid the correlation between gold and equities is this year, it looks as though they got married at the turn of the year. Just need to figure out when the divorce is...

I picked this comment up from the bottom of an article on the telegraph, apparantly it's from the Gartman Letter; "Last Thursday, Mr. Terry Smeeton, former head of foreign exchange and gold at the Bank of England, who retired only last year, made the following statement: “[The gold sale] is not a policy I would have advocated when I was at the bank. I am sad this action has been taken…It’s clearly a Treasury decision in which the Bank has had to acquiesce.” There is a remarkable degree of controversy and fevered speculation in the wake of the recent decision to sell half the UK’s gold reserves. Most extreme has been the following rumor repeated Friday by the widely read Gartman letter: “There is a rumor sweeping through the markets concerning Mr. Gavyn Davies, one of Goldman Sachs European economists[Ed. Note: at this point, for the sake of transparency, we must note that Goldman Sachs is a long standing and revered client of The Gartman Letter in New York, London, Hong Kong, and Tokyo, on the international equities, metals and foreign exchange desks; thus reporting a rumor concerning Goldman is a bit more difficult than would be the norm, in all honesty. None the less, the rumor is being given such wide dissemination that we’ve no choice but to report it here] and a close friend and economic advisor of Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. The rumor suggests that it was Mr. Davies who urged Mr. Blair and Mr. Brown to prevail upon the Bank of England to reduce its gold reserves. The rumor further posits that Goldman Sachs is short 1000 tonnes of gold for future delivery. We are, of course, not privy to Goldman’s gold trading position…The rumor, true or not…is becoming more and more widely debated by gold market participants.” Goldman Sachs short 1000 tonnes, that's a serious position equivalent to 35,273,962 ounces ($38 billion), or 352,739 futures contracts. Adding all the open interest across all of the Gold futures contract months you arrive at something north of 460,000 so this rumour is effectively stating the squid controls 3/4 of the Comex. Is this likely or even possible? Furthermore, with this sort of controlling share they could effectively move the market in whatever particular direction required to push some people into/out of the dollar and equities. If people see gold heading down they are going to be buying dollars. Interestingly Gold does appear to have quite an increasingly strong correlation to the S&P500. I've included the correlation co-efficient in this chart (the red line), notice how this year it has stayed north of 90% rather than move up and down in a cyclical fashion like last year. The particular feature to note is that despite the undulations in the S&P500 the correlation between it and Gold have stayed solid, unlike last year when corrections in the S&P500 or Gold occurred the correlation broke down temporarily. This appears to be consistent with the above rumour in my view.

I would add Prechter to this list. I subscribe to some of his services and what I find quite striking is that the majority of his work is highly impressive, I've been short SPY from his call in January. He certainly seems to have an issue regarding gold and it would not surprise me in the least if in this respect he had another agenda... Anyway gold and silver should be up once the markets open following Iran's notification that they are going to enrich Uranium to 20%, should be a renewed uptrend. I put in an order for calls on SLV but they didn't get filled before the close on friday, I'll be looking to buy tomorrow. I wanted to pose a question to all on this thread regarding the impact of what I call "Jubilee creep". It is highly unlikely we will have a debt jubilee but I see a developing trend over the coming years whereby debts are modified or written off to try and further protect the banks. Mortgages are already being modified in the US, either on new terms or partial write off, albeit on a limited scale at the moment. News item on the bbc today; Challenge to forced sale of homes for debts http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8500379.stm These are only examples but if, as I think, this trend becomes more magnified what impact will it have on the the gold and silver markets? Effectively if something like this is done on a grander scale would it not reduce systemic risk and therefore some of the insurance premium for gold and silver?

This is a stunning chart, thanks for posting it, do you have one for silver as well or does it not follow the same type of curve?

I wonder how much money Jim Sinclair made today shorting gold

Now that's what I call a head and shoulders... That's it below now (currently 16.55)...if it closes under there today it could be a long way down

LOL...I almost bought a bar of physical also, not sure why I didn't go ahead now... I was going to buy some silver as at the moment I prefer that to gold (I assumed they would be doing that also - I assumed wrong)

Perishabull in Harrods It's three gold bars for the price of two at the moment...

Surely the dollar would need to lose reserve status before people accepted the true price of gold being the one valued in another currency...? Goldfinger what's your take on the margin requirement situation? I haven't noticed Jim Sinclair mentioning this.

COMEX Raises Gold and Silver Margin Requirements, Validates Bull Market Strength I've posted several times before that the CFTC can order increased margin requirements to cap the level of gold and silver (on behalf of US Government and the bankers). This will continue to happen if the price gets lofty again.

Some context with linear regression trendlines Estimate of 5 Jan price I don't see much significant action to the upside near term, the risk is to the downside in the short term, could well spike down to below my estimate before climbing back up. Higher than where we are now seems unrealistic, many traders/hedge funds will be away prior to Christmas and will only have had time to get their legs back under the desk by 5th Jan. I don't hold any at present so it may be that what others view as my conservative figure is a reflection of that Very near the top I posted a suggestion that it could get to $1500 by end of first quarter, I got swept up into the euphoria despite note holding any... It's another possibility but perhaps doesn't look so sure now.

Yes I think the same about the US. To have both dollars and gold is probably a smart way to play it.

Japan is an interesting example, do you think the US could go Japanese?

That got me thinking, in all probability foreign sovereign defaults should cause at least temporary rallies in the dollar, and dips in gold, clearly the default to watch for is the US. That would send gold to the stratosphere. Paradoxically though is it not possible that US default will be significantly delayed as a result of capital fleeing relatively weaker sovereign nations following their defaults? Foreign capital fleeing into the dollar and US treasuries, sustaining the US far longer than anyone expects?

The silence is deafening

Does anyone have a comment to make on this, my post was ignored earlier (it was amongst a debate, I think that's why) Aren't people holding gold on concerns of a Sovereign default? Yet when these concerns surface the dollar catches a bid and gold goes down. Perhaps hedge funds would prefer to own treasuries rather than gold if such a scenario develops further? 2, 5, 10 and 30 yr treasuries all up over the last couple of days

Linear regression trendlines appear to be a very useful tool; Exhibit A Gold futures Down to $1090 then a bounce there, earlier if China/India intervene Exhibit B GDX also my original post from the "it's all about the dollar thread"

Surely gold should be up today what with the perceived risk of sovereign default increasing; From Marketwatch;

I posted some charts a few days ago here that suggested $1500 gold by the end of the first quarter next year. I posted it as I couldn't quite believe it myself and wanted to gauge the reaction. I had thought it looked too optimistic... I posted some dollar charts on the GEI Trading academy thread that suggest that the dollar could be at a very important juncture.