Perishabull

Gold sentiment;

Silver sentiment

3 years after the top... 2003 - present; And in log for the purists; ]

Gold 2003 onwards And in log for the purists;

It looks like we are at an interesting point in the gold market, technically speaking. This chart is Gold continuous futures, March 2001 to present;in LOG The key long term trend is still in play. And the sentiment picture looks interesting too;

Excerpt from ZEAL LLC; https://connectpro58377496.adobeconnect.com/_a816688188/p2kjpz6nwwz/?launcher=false&fcsContent=true&pbMode=normal "Silver Stocks 5 Scott Wright December 27, 2013 2154 Words 2013 has been a brutal year for silver. And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn’t bode well for its mining stocks. Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the pariahs of the markets. But if silver’s fortunes change in 2014, as they ought to, then right now could be one of the best buying opportunities of this entire secular bull market. Unfortunately silver is currently in a sentiment wasteland. Even contemplating a foray into this metal, let alone its stocks, is a fool’s errand to the majority of mainstream investors. Their mindset is why bother wasting even a cent of precious capital investing in a sector led by an asset that’s down 36% on the year. It’s much more prudent to throw money at the ever-rising stock markets, right? Indeed the bloated general stock markets have sucked in a lot of silver’s capital. With the headline indices all soaring to record heights, more and more investors have joined the herd to chase the gains. This has left little room for alternative investments like silver, fundamentals be damned. And as a result, this metal and its associated stocks have greatly suffered. The artificially-levitating stock markets aren’t silver’s only problem though. And certainly the biggest one by far is its association with gold. Sadly gold has endured a panic-stricken year that has devastated the entire precious-metals realm. The mass exodus from bullion-backed ETFs and an anomalous futures-shorting bonanzahave left mass quantities of blood on gold’s streets. And silver has been unable to avoid the splash damage. It’s no secret that silver’s performance is slave to gold’s. It essentially mirrors the directionality of its big brother, with much more volatility on both the upside and downside given its smaller market. As goes gold, so goes silver. So until gold turns, silver will almost certainly remain stuck in its rut. Fortunately gold is overdue for a massive recovery rally. Even with the rampant ETF selling, it still has incredibly strong structural fundamentals. It should soar on its own merits, but an overdue stock-market correction is sure to accelerate investors’ desire to put capital back to work in this sector. For a myriad of reasons I suspect gold will be the story of 2014. When gold comes back, so will silver. And silver’s gains ought to dramatically outpace gold’s, like they usually do. Speculators are naturally drawn to silver in precious-metals uplegs, they crave upside leverage. And this metal still has its own strong fundamentals to attract in a more diverse crowd (indispensable industrial usage and essentially the same investment allure as gold). Silver even has a leg up on gold considering the stability of its premier bullion-backed ETF. While gold’s flagship GLD ETF has seen its holdings fall by a staggering 40% in 2013, silver’s flagship SLV ETF has seen its holdings remain stable. This is an incredible show of relative strength. SLV’s physical inventory happens to be at the same level today as it was at the beginning of the year (324m ounces). This certainly demonstrates strong hands amidst silver’s slump! And it points to what should be amajor boost to this ETF’s holdings once investors actually shift capital back to silver. Finally once silver again starts to shine, investors will naturally return to the mining stocks. And they’ll return in droves to chase after gains that normally positively leverage a rising silver price. And the return to silver stocks won’t come a minute too soon considering their dilapidated state. With leverage being a two-way street, the silver miners have been crushed amidst silver’s decline. This three-year chart of silver and Global X’s Silver Miners ETF (SIL) shows just how bad things have been for the silver stocks.

Excerpt from Silver Phoenix 500; "Silver Price To Head Higher As Cost of Production Forms A Base Many precious metal investors today are troubled by the current weakness in the price of silver and are concerned that prices could fall much lower. While the price of silver could continue to fall a bit from here, it’s more likely we will see a higher, rather than a lower trend in 2014. If we look at the table below, we can see the total three-quarters of financial metrics from my top 12 primary silver miners. By adding up all the figures, we can see some interesting data points. For example, the top 12 primary silver miners recorded a combined $2.36 billion in total revenue for Q1-Q3, while their adjusted income amounted to only $1.4 million. Thus, the average realized price received by the top 12 silver miners for the first nine months of 2013, was $24.58. Their estimated silver break-even turns out to be one cent less at $24.57. Even though this is the average for the first three-quarters of the year, the group was able to lower their break-even to $21.39 in Q3. I don’t believe the break-even will be much less (and probably higher) due to the fact that the group sold 1.4 million more silver in Q3 than they produced. Furthermore, the group produced 68.8 million oz of silver for the first nine months of 2013 while they sold 69.7 million oz. I highly doubt they will continue to sell more silver than they are producing for the next several quarters. It is quite amazing to see that these 12 primary silver miners had $2.36 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2013 while only showing $1.4 million of adjusted income. The power of the FED is mighty indeed. The net income of a negative $554 million for the Q1-Q3 was due to the huge write-downs during the second quarter. The Price Of Silver Is Below The Group Average Cost of Production The current price of silver is $19.40, while the estimated break-even for the top 12 primary silver miners in Q3 was $21.39. According to Kitco, the average price of silver so far in Q4 is $20.76 or 63 cents less than the prior quarter. I imagine we may see continued losses from the group in the last quarter as the miners receive a lower price for their silver and as stockpiled silver sales are reduced. However, there is a chance that we may indeed see a small gain for the group in Q4 if the by-product revenues increase due to stronger prices for copper, zinc and lead (Q over Q) and costs continue to decline."

Sentiment December 18th

Sentiment at end November;

Money Flow Index is an indicator that has worked well many times in the past for silver; It's just passed it's lowest point within the last 5 years

Those all in on gold must be doubting themselves now.