Perishabull

Andrew Maguire is on Max Keiser's show on RT in a few minutes, just a heads up in anyone wants to catch it.

I'm looking for gold to clear and confidently close well above $1430.

Don't know if you saw this Roman;

Chart from Zero Hedge today; "Gold had its best day in 3 weeks ending back above $1425 and its best 5-day run in 18 months..." So far so good...................................................

Here it is. Well, it actually seems to fit better. All the way back to 2009.

It rather looks as if GLD is experiencing a parabolic blow off top.......... ............when measured in GDX This chart is GLD / GDX. The point at which the price trajectory is heading 0° is 27th April and since price trajectory cannot go <0° this suggests to me gold miners will bottom within the next 5 trading days (if they haven't already)

From a few days ago.

Goldman (gods work) Sachs advised to stay short and move stops to $1400. BANG and the stops are gone. Who would be dumb enough to listen to that, clearly some people were.

Jeremy Paxman wasn't too keen on gold was he. I don't remember debates on prime time TV when gold was topping...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq0m6MM1I8Y

From Streettalk live; From Gold's peak at $1923 to it's low so far of $1321 is a 31.3% move lower, it took 1 year 7 months from high to low. From Silver's peak in April 2011 at $49.82 to it's immediate low 12 days later at $33.03 was a 33.7% move.

Very interesting interview with Andrew Maguire on Kingworldnews.com where he's suggesting the London Bullion Market Association were on the cusp of a default; Maguire: “Gold and silver only have this type of selling when there are extreme shortages of the physical metal. I am totally aware that before this takedown occurred there was an imminent LBMA default. We had already seen COMEX inventories plunging. In 90 days COMEX inventories saw an incredible decline. So immediately available physical gold was disappearing. People around the world don’t understand what has been happening since Cyprus...." “Entities went to the LBMA and said, ‘We don’t trust anybody anymore. We want our physical metal.’ They were told they would be cash settled instead by a bullion bank. The Western governments have been trying to plug holes, and the reason for it has to do with the default that was taking place at the LBMA. This is why this smash has been orchestrated because of the run that has been taking place on physical metal. So Western governments had to do this because of an imminent run on the unallocated LBMA system. The LBMA bullion banks had become so mismatched at one point on their trading positions vs real world demand that they had to orchestrate this smash. This orchestrated smash in gold and silver was nothing short of a bailout for the bullion banks. So there is a run on physical gold that is taking place and the Ponzi scheme the West is running is being threatened because of it.” Maguire also added: “We are nearing the end of this decline. Physical demand is already beginning to catch up with leveraged paper. If gold were to trade into the low $1,300s it would be unsustainable for very long.” This guy's very experienced in the precious metals sector and he's suggesting low $1,300s is the low.

This is from Bespoke Investment Group; I think Bubb alluded to this on his diary. http://www.bespokein...-on-record.html "The price of gold is currently trading more than 4.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, which clocks in at the most oversold reading since at least 1975. The chart below shows the daily overbought/oversold reading for gold based on the number of standard deviations it traded above or below its 50-day moving average. As shown, there have not been very many occurrences where the commodity traded more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average. In fact, there have only been ten."

Happy, it will be very interesting to see the public opinion chart on gold, when its updated...

Well for me these prices represent great value so earlier this morning I've bought gold at $1365. Gold was as low as $1321 overnight and at that point was $240 down since 12th April. That's an unprecedented move and it came with unprecedented volume. This from Bubb's diary; When silver was at it's peak I believe it was trading at over 4 standard deviations from the mean over a 7 year duration, see chart below from the 50ish peak in Silver thread; Also a big trade of late has been long gold and short silver, this has been a big winner for many. This next chart shows the ratio of Gold to Silver, so as gold has outperformed silver the ratio has climbed steadily higher but look now, it may have peaked and formed a lower high. Gold Silver ratio from 1st February to present The volume at the bottom of the chart is Gold futures (June contract) This next chart shows the ratio from 20th March to present and shows it more clearly; All these aspects together suggest to me this is an appropriate point to be buying.

People selling less than spot! They must be desperate. Peter Cambell of M3 Financial Sense thinks the Japanese have been selling gold.... "Everyone wants to know what started the GOLD crash... A new high in Gold prices in YEN combined with an implied default in JGB’s (on April 5th) in an environment of high distrust of BOJ and other central banks and a great need for cash to settle debts in an insolvent Japan would sound like the perfect trigger to me. Wait till you see how the markets behave when JGBs follow the same path - and they will…the GOLD implosion will likely look small in comparison. The funny thing is the types of liquidations we are seeing are not just liquidations, they are destruction of capital, which may in the end cause a muted US and German bond rally followed by margin call selling even overwhelming the best government bond markets. If there is no place to hide…then we get a freefall.

If selling the Cyprus gold is part of the resolution for that situation then what about Portugal, Spain, Italy etc etc? They have a lot more gold.

Possibly the Cyprus gold being dumped on the market. http://blogs.telegra...-gold-reserves/AEP's Telegraph article; Excerpt; "EMU plot curdles as creditors seize Cyprus gold reserves First they purloin the savings and bank deposits in Laiki and the Bank of Cyprus, including the working funds of the University of Cyprus, and thousands of small firms hanging on by their fingertips. Then they seize three quarters of the country’s gold reserves, making it ever harder for Cyprus to extricate itself from EMU at a later date. The people of Cyprus first learned about this from a Reuters leak of the working documents for the Eurogroup meeting on Friday. It is tucked away in clause 29. "Sale of excess gold reserves: The Cypriot authorities have committed to sell the excess amount of gold reserves owned by the Republic. This is estimated to generate one-off revenues to the state of €400m via an extraordinary payout of central bank profits." This seemed to catch the central bank by surprise. Officials said they knew nothing about it. So who in fact made this decision? Cypriots are learning what it means to be a member of monetary union when things go badly wrong. The crisis costs have suddenly jumped from €17bn to €23bn, and the burden of finding an extra €6bn will fall on Cyprus alone. The government expects the economy to contract 13pc this year as full austerity bites. Megan Greene from Maverick Intelligence fears it could be a lot worse. She says the crisis has reached the point where it would be “less painful” for Cyprus to seek an “amicable divorce” from the eurozone and break free. Quite so, and while we’re at it, lets seek an amicable divorce for everybody, for Portugal, for Ireland, for Spain, for Italy, and above all for Germany, since they are all being damaged in different ways by the infernal Project. All are victims of their elites." The last sentence is chilling. Remember Gordon Brown's atrocious telegraphing to the market of the impending sale of UK's gold? Perhaps this is either a mass exodus before Cyprus gold is sold (I hope not) or it has perhaps just been unceremoniously dumped on the market like an unwanted rag. If that's what's happened it's a very unsophisticated way to sell into the market. It that's what they've done then they clearly are very desperate, and that it's quite concerning because perhaps there is something very serious going on behind the scenes right now.

Well it's now $205 down from the open on friday to the lowest point so far today. Monster volume so far 512,000 GCM3 (June) contracts traded. This is the highest volume of trade in one day in the history of the gold futures market and we are only part of the way through the day..... I think when all is said and done we may hear news about the wipe out of a hedge fund or two.

Gold futures; Looking at this my first though was, "Paulson's dead" So far this move - the drop on friday and the drop today... ...is very similar to the move that also happened across a weekend, back on 23 - 26th September 2011. On friday 23rd September 2011 Gold opened at 1739, sold off heavily, then sold off even more heavily on monday 26th September, trading as low as 1535 before rebounding sharply higher. That was a two day drop of $204 whereas across the 2 days this time it's been as much as $175. Very strong volume coming in now for gold; Intraday showing what looks like a V bottom;

$23 I didn't expect to see this

Thank the lord I only nibbled. Silver down 10% to $23.70

Looks like I was wrong about the $1430 level being significant.

Gold Futures (June) Gold sold off further early this morning, with a very brief dip down to $1422 for a 5 min period. I've highlighted the $1432 level. So far volume by 9am today has been equal to an average days trade in the gold futures market. I would really have wanted to see much higher volume on that second move down to $1432.... Referencing the above gold spiked through the lower 3 standard deviations line during it's move down to $1422. Measured this way we have seen an extreme in price.

I see Cyprus as a signal of a general trend where property rights and the rule of law are gradually being eroded. Cyprus is good example but if things get really bad capital controls could come into play in other countries. That would have been unthinkable many years ago, so who knows, down the line governments could raid other types of private property/assets, pension holdings, brokerage accounts. Some of those types of assets where there are plenty of records showing who holds what etc. Do you think buying gold is pissing into the wind? Do you think it's finished now?