Perishabull

A fat finger? Someone's buying immediately corrected by the market.

It may refer to forced liquidation from leveraged traders. Since silver has come down to $26 a couple of times (and more recently quite close to it), there are likely to be a large number of stop orders clustered beneath $26. If those are set off during another downswing it could tigger a mini-cascade lower but I would be surprised if it went down as far as $18 in the short term, maybe $22. Although I don't own any (and haven't for a while) I would prefer to see it hold at $26 since breaking that level wouldn't augur well for the precious metals complex, and I own gold instead of silver these days.

With all due respect RH, I feel that silver is now a "constant busting flush", that is, when it raises it's head, it's gets flushed by the hedge funds. It's no longer below the radar.

What's your position on silver Bubb?

Sometimes it can be useful to remove the fluctuations in the value of the dollar from an underlying, to get a different view of things. Gold divided by the Dollar Index; Compare to a standard gold chart; On the standard chart, gold hasn't conclusively broken through the previous low whereas with the dollar stripped out, it has. So gold is supported despite the stronger dollar. $1500 has to be a very important number, psychologically for gold, if that goes there could be a strong wave of selling, along with sharply lower valuations for the mining equities.

Yeah I post it when there have been a few days of non posting, last time it was 10 days before the low. Then for gold; The tumbleweed indicator.

excerpt from ft.com; "Japanese pension fund switches to gold Okayama Metal & Machinery has become the first Japanese pension fund to make public purchases of gold, in a sign of dwindling faith in paper currencies. Initially, the fund aims to keep about 1.5 per cent of its total assets of Y40bn ($500m) in bullion-backed exchange traded funds, according to chief investment officer Yoshisuke Kiguchi, who said he was diversifying into gold to "escape sovereign risk". The move into a non-yielding asset comes as funds in the world's second-biggest pension market are under increasing pressure to meet promised payments, as domestic interest rates remain rooted near zero. This year, the first of Japan's baby boomers turn 65, becoming eligible for payouts. Mr Kiguchi said the lack of yield was a concern for the fund's investment committee, but he persuaded them that "from a very long-term point of view, gold may be one of the safe currencies". He added that he had sold Australian dollars this month to meet his initial target allocation for gold for the fund, which has 20,000 members. Mizuho Trust & Banking, a unit of Mizuho Financial Group, has begun to offer investment schemes allowing smaller pension funds to invest in gold. While few fund managers are counting on a crash in core assets such as Japanese government bonds, said Takahiro Morita, head of the Tokyo arm of the World Gold Council, a producers' association, they were increasingly receptive to the idea that gold could act as a buffer against shocks. "Last year's tsunami and the eurozone debt crisis shows that it was wise to expect the unexpected," he said. Historically, institutions in the $3.4tn Japanese pension market have clung to traditional assets. Bonds accounted for 59 per cent of industry assets in 2011, the highest share in the world, according to Towers Watson, a consultant. Just 6 per cent – the lowest share – was invested in alternatives such as property, private equity and hedge funds. Within Japan the image of gold has struggled to recover the lustre lost after a scandal in the mid-1980s involving Toyota Shoji, which duped thousands of elderly investors by promising gold bars that were never delivered. Now, though, households are showing more interest."

Gold sentiment is plumbing those depths again (similar story for silver); Chart from www.sentimentrader.com Gold COT chart (two year); Chart from www.timingcharts.com Commercials reducing short positions, large traders reducing longs.

Posted when silver was at $36.4 I'm not talked about this view much, since it doesn't sit too easily in my mind and it's not that easy to reconcile with my position that Gold remains in a bull market (although arguably that may be about to be tested). However, we have seen numerous examples over the last year of just how easy it is for silver to get cut down. Compared to other metals priced by ounce it is very cheap and there are regularly large amounts of silver derivatives traded (futures, options, ETFs etc), although the market is much smaller than gold. So yes it is a relatively cheap relative of gold and that makes it attractive and the silver market is relatively small, however although the size of the silver market is an attractive reason to believe that investing in silver longer term could be a sound investment the paradox here may be that this makes it silver's biggest weakness, it's easily manipulated. This may prevent the very substantial potential gains of the type you often hear trumpeted by those who don't have a deep knowledge of markets (and certainly I'm no expert). It's plain to see what has happened to the silver price when large numbers of sell orders hit the market, it has been summarily crushed on several occasions, whereas with gold although it has also taken a hit, the underlying strength is clear from the longer term charts. Pull up a silver chart and it looks like a Samurai warrior has been using it for target practice; Samurai Spirit 7 by Artgerm

Based on the SLV : GLD ratio the trajectory is down, so whilst they're both going down, silver is going down faster than gold. Since the silver top in April 2011 Gold has outperformed Silver. SLV/GLD 2 year The correlation between SLV and FXE (The Euro ETF), with GLD also shown; The Euro is very strongly correlated to Silver at the moment, what are your thoughts on the Euro Peppa?

"Roger that, clear for take off" - Tsshhsst

Halight you can embed youtube videos... Eg URL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKLB8KhtRg8 You would type youtube URLHERE /youtube to see this; but you need to use square brackets round the youtube and the /youtube eg [ ]

I think you've exhausted any humour that was left in that mate.

Based on this 3 year log chart of gold it would not be unrealistic to be looking for $2000 by September... The linear regression trendlines allow you to see some context and within the context of the last three years the correction relative to the mean has been deeper. Of course there's no guarantee the corrective phase is over. Maybe a sign of that would be a rally in gold miners...? Looking back further we can see it relative to the 2008 correction;

All you need to do now is start a blog, charge for membership and bingo, you're in business.

from www.investopedia.com

How do you think the Euro is likely to do? Since the start of 2011 Silver has been becoming more closely correlated to the Euro; SLV and FXE The Swiss pegged their Franc to the Euro on 6th September 2011 and if you look from then on the correlation has tightened. Here's another chart showing SLV in black with it's correlation to FXE in the box below. The correlation between the two is currently at 88%.

Peppa, you're not in any way related to Percy are you?

Have we seen the low?

Here's a chart from http://proprateanalyst.wordpress.com/showing how sales to inventory leads house price growth; and also how new buyer enquiries lead mortgage approvals;

Google search activity over the last few years for "Gold bullion";

PUBLIC OPINION - GOLD from www.sentimentrader.com

Blythe Masters with a myth to dispel....; "JPMorgan Not Speculating on Commodities: Blythe Masters JP Morgan Chase is not in the commodities speculation business, Blythe Masters, head of global commodities for the bank, told CNBC Thursday. "It's not part of our business model. It would be wrong and we don't do it," she said.The misperception, rampant in the blogosphere, comes from what JPMorgan does for clients, Masters said. "We store significant amounts of commodities, for instance silver, on behalf of customers. We operate vaults in New York City, in Singapore and in London. Often when customers have that metal stored in our facilities they hedge it on a forward basis through JPMorgan, which in turn hedges in the commodities market," she said. "If you see only the hedges and our activity in the futures market but you aren't aware of the underlying client position that we're hedging, then it would suggest inaccurately that we're running a large directional position," she added. "In fact that's not the case at all. We have offsetting positions. We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline."" Video at link

GDX looks somewhat ominous...