Perishabull

This is from The Coins of Colonial America:

Here's something similar-ish on ebay, this is a Peruvian coin 27 grams. It's on for £3250.

I'm looking for help identifying a coin which may or may not be gold. I don't know anything about gold coins or otherwise so maybe someone out there can help. My wife acquired it as part of bargaining for a frame in a shop, there was a box of old coins that the shop owner advised she could take one as part of the purchase of the frame. This is it; Now I found the following in baldwin auctioneers catalogue; Now clearly the quality of the coins are miles apart however the patterning and era of the coins are similar, the number on my wife's coin is 736. Looking closer at my wife's coin I'm wondering whether it could be an old fake coin? It's a mystery so far. Our coin says PVA 736 whereas the outstanding auctioneer's example says PVA 699.

You beat me to my original purchase by 2 and a half years! Nice one.

The value of truth in that statement has now been defined.

Can you spot the difference?

Actually, you may well find that the points where you are tempted to sell are the wrong points, it's at the point where you absolutely do not want to part with the position that you need to start thinking about unloading. Here's a quote of mine back when silver peaked in April 2011; I'm not posting this to "big myself up", I'm posting it to point out to you how very difficult it is to unload at precisely the right time since the bullish fervour was unrelenting, people were talking about the move continuing up to $75 and $100 and there were a lot of expectations in the market that this would happen, (together with some absurd predictions of $6,000 etc). I am always very wary indeed when I hear people in the financial markets (escpecially prominent voices) talk in absolute terms. eg That was right before the top and he got it 180° wrong, in fact he couldn't have got it more wrong. It's worth bearing these things in mind Romans.

"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon." Jesse Livermore If I'm right about gold (that it's currently on a run that will take it past $2,000) then....well....you have to think what would happen in that scenario...

This may be a good example of a reflexive statement.

NOW looks like a good time to buy gold.

SIlver futures; Strong resistance at $26 and the downward sloping trendline should see a resolution this year.

There's usually not such a large gap between posts on this thread. Maybe it's time for some upside action for Gold. From Zerohedge; "Oil And Gold Seasonals Suggest BTFD The long-term seasonal data for gold and oil has not just remained relatively highly correlated over time but, as Barclays points out today, has very clear periods of bearishness, consolidation, and bullishness. While Gold may have another month of treading water, the period from September to mid-October is empirically bullish while Brent's August to mid-October period is the most bullish segment of the year. Given gold's stability in the past month or so since the EU Summit, and oil's surge (and modest pull-back very recently), seasonals certainly provide some technical support for BTFD here in these QE-sensitive, real assets. Brent Crude's two major bullish seasonals... and Gold's three periods of bullish seasonality... "

Triple post...

Double post

Not heard from David Morgan for a while... Need to forward to 40 secs in

I got into PSLV 4 days after the debut (low premium) and sold it (too early) for about a $2k profit. You know although I sold that too early I sold half my physical silver at the top and bought puts and rode them down to $35/$33.75 (covering way more than the remaining physical) and yet although I've done amazingly well with silver I still wish I bought more puts. It was the perfect trade, it would have been even more perfect if I'd bought more puts though...(that's hindsight of course)

I don't class this as work! I love markets, trading and analysis. Yeah so you can visualise the 1st standard deviation line on the last chart as essentially being right in the middle of the two upper lines. Some traders are chatting on TD Ameritrade live chat and seem pretty bearish, one talking of buying loads of SLV puts, another saying he is long gold and short silver right now. The SLV put buyer; "If we break $26 I make a bunch of money" Makes me laugh, he's only $22 too late, lol The guys a maniac, he's bought loads of SLV puts with a $20 strike price. That's just ridiculous.

The previous chart displays the price on 23rd August 2011 touching 1 standard deviation above mean line using data for 3 years up to when the chart was posted, therefore it does include data after 23rd August 2011. Silver touched $44.275 on 23rd August 2011. Using a different system I've charted Linear Regression from 3 years up to 23rd August 2011 (note this is on SLV as I can't get futures on this other system); It's important to note that the upper/lower mid lines (light green) on this chart are not 1 standard deviation (not sure how to do that with this other chart system). These are 50% from mean. 1 standard deviation at that time would have been at around $45 on this chart of SLV (probably about $46 for silver futures). The regression lines are calculated and drawn automatically by the system.

That made me think of Ker Nulov; This next piece is from his blog on Seekingalpha.com; "Gold for Bears: Weekly trading ranges Bear case and Bull case It is a tricky situation, it may be bullish or bearish, you don't know until it breaks in either direction. Since the monthly trend is down, downside is more probable. My target for the down move this month is 1180 because it stands in the middle of the range. Will allow gold to retrace to 1300 before selling more Note: I use closing price for all lines except the highest one, median lines (dashed) are allowed to traspass closing price"

Silver futures with volume profile - 1 year; The value area (where 68% of volume transacted) across the last year is between $26.7 and $35, with most of the last 12 months' trade occurring at $31.7. Silver futures with Linear Regression - 3 years; On this metric silver is nearly one standard deviation below mean, when it reached 1 standard deviation above in August 2011 strong resistance was seen at that level. 1 standard deviation below is currently around $25. It'll be interesting to see if it ever makes it back down that far...

I wasn't sure what you were asking, can you elaborate?

Well what I'm saying is that it just seems obvious (from a trader's perspective) that because it has held that level there are likely to be a large cluster of stops beneath that level. Of course we may never find out for sure if it doesn't go through $26 but if it does it might look something like this; Stops triggered on gold from a Zerohedge piece back in Feb; A very sudden unbroken move (ie a chain of orders being set off, setting off further orders etc etc)