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kernull

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Everything posted by kernull

  1. monday we will have a pullback you can try either at 823 with stop at 818 or 793 with stop of 788 p.s. as always DYODD
  2. no, but the top now is confirmed, you may try short the TBOND if it gets to 120 area for retest
  3. Cuthbert, i remember your call on coffee, guess what, we began a bullish trend in coffee today. I don't know how far we going yet, but I saw a good trading session today.
  4. more bashing tomorrow. i have no target for the low, but 780 is still bullish. imho, this week marks the trend reversal week. in bullish trends, we should have rallies monday & tuesday, following the selloffs on tursday and friday, this week is still in bearish-mode, so if next monday-tuesday we don't selloff, the correction is over, and its time for long term positions with target of around 5,000
  5. the top in the dollar becomes official: "Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury said it will sell bills to allow the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, a day after the government agreed to take over American International Group Inc. ``The Treasury Department announced today the initiation of a temporary Supplementary Financing Program at the request of the Federal Reserve,'' the department said in a statement today. ``The program will consist of a series of Treasury bills, apart from Treasury's current borrowing program.''
  6. gold has a triangle with possible strong uptrend, silver survived 10.40, so, bear count on hold. watching ... there is still a posibility of 12.50 , all depends on eur & oil
  7. these guys are pretty good, they figured out dow is testing 11200 and sold off today, now they will go up again when dow shows first signs of failure, in the mean time, test the support.
  8. silver weak trading activity today indicates we are going lower, breaking 10.00 support. (just when i bought physical, damn)
  9. well, interest rates kept, looks like the dollar rally continues. gold & silver do not look very optimistic
  10. same question here. i would be comfortable shorting if we top in the dollar or bottom in the stock market and none of this is yet confirmed
  11. i am still waiting for the USD to pull up to 80 area once again. and gold make a higher low on this move confirming uptrend. the screaming buy imho, is oil right now. this drop on no volume on sunday (special huricane trading window) should not last much with all the commodities up.
  12. it is politely called 'bad tick' , but in reality it is a manipulation at NY exchange and it is used to take bullish positions off on stop or margin calls. usually happens before a bullish wave. later this bad ticks are removed like nothing happened.
  13. if you mean by long term, a run to +1000 , then it is not the bottom, the bottom for that run will likely to be after elections. right now you can try to run it from tuesday, if (and only if) it confirms the recent bottom , to around 850 , after that i expect it to be bashed/manipulated/deflated/whatever to drop again to 7XX and paint a triangle reversal. and then the huge, long term, non-stop run. if nothing unexpected happens with Lehman stuff on weekend, they probably will start dumping gold ahead of fed's meeting, so tuesday i think will be the retest of the 737, if it breaks 752 again, then you probably can buy it. p.s. i recommend to buy a small position so you could support a drop to 300 gold, then you can buy any low you want and make some money on coming consolidation / sideways movement, check out the waves from april to june 2008, this is very probable thing to happen again imho
  14. gold broke out of its 4 day down trend started from 820 area. high probability of a bottom in place. now waiting for oil to close above 102.50
  15. good. I think 1 more thing is needed: a turning point event which has not yet happened Fannie & Freddie takeover wasn't it, so there must be some another one, and that may be: - Lehman collapse (and the turnaround may happen just the way like the monday Bear Sterns collapsed, a big short covering) - FEDs meeting - Another bank collapse
  16. well, i took my silver today morning, as planned, even with gold going to 710 I don't think silver will be breaking 10.00 , specially with dollar at the 80 resitance & ahead of FEDs meeting, looks to me its a good risk/reward ratio, target : 14.80 (yeah, i think it will be breaking 12.50 channel line)
  17. hey guys, there is a possible take over LEH & WM by FED on this weekend, so , the $USD rally may be ending with a gold spike on sunday market open. (take your own risks for course)
  18. i mean, the charts must be done, either gold is going up or down
  19. sorry guys. the job must be done, either you like it or not.
  20. no, these lines have years of trading, they are not arbitrary at all. 700 is previous resistance of 2006 year, which now will be tested as a strong support. anything in between would not hold strong imho. it means that if 710 does not hold, we are going lower to 650 conclusion: not yet a buy time (from my point of view)
  21. yes, silver to $6 is possible under this conditions: USD to 86 gold/silver ratio to 100 (currently 70, and increasing fast) gold to 600 i don't think this would happen next week, i guess it is possible on a spike right before the elections.
  22. after breaking 775 gold entered C wave of an ABC from 980 , next support is 700, more likely 710 than so widely circulated number 730. i expect tuesday this correction will be over
  23. silver is approaching my buy area, 10.50 , hope Asia can do the job on opening
  24. here is my outlook for this week-next tuesday: silver beaten more, more volume on the downside, looking for 10.50 as the lowest price until 16 sep (will be buying if i get it) eur/usd is going to 1.3300 , but it is likely to get some rest at 1.3800 oil: I almost believe it bottomed at 105, but wont be buying until eur hits the desired targets gold: will be looking for confirmation of double bottom at 780 area, confirming the low of 15 aug basicaly, preparing for a rally next week, as I believe after FEDs meeting dollar will be sold out no matter whatever decision they will take. not yet for reversal , though, only a retracement for about 2 weeks period, the reversal i think will be after elections.
  25. we have tv ads all over the place, to make silver coin standard money conducted on its own TV channel by the private company Grupo Salinas ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grupo_Salinas ) , but this is not going to happen. The government will not do a harakiri.
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