huntergatherer

Silver – Is the Party Over? Mar 01, 2012 - 06:03 AM A couple of weeks ago, we compared the Bull market of Silver to the Nasdaq Bubble… We wrote that Silver could go as high as $38, but that that might be an inflection point. Silver reached a high of $37.22 last night and $37.62 today, and has thus reached its goal. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33377.html

FYI. Bought Ag at $8.81. Hedged profits by swapping at $49. Original Au core position at $600 (house deposit) now $1773. Bought and continued to buy when others were selling at less than $18 prior to the run up to $49. (Did not listen to the silver bears at time.) Also bought Ag in 2008 prior to low at $16 and sold for profit on rebound with strong dollar/weak pound with core position doubled up at $900 now $1773. There are always bearish/bullish views in any given market at any point in time and we are all entitled to seek out those views should any one wish to do so.

No-shortages of silver. Article is six days old and price moved beyond $33.50 ($34.26 at present) Just a healthy challenge to the silver longs.

Rounding Top Pattern In Silver. Reversal Or Continuation? The current pattern in silver is a rounding top and it is often labeled a reversal formation. http://www.istockanalyst.com/finance/story/5673540/rounding-top-pattern-in-silver-reversal-or-continuation

Of course if it did reach that level you probably wished you took profits or swapped for Au around $49

Silver bear market to $16 it could be then.

Gold not a reliable inflation hedge - study LONDON | Wed Feb 8, 2012 11:56am GMT (Reuters) - Gold prices have been too volatile to play a reliable role as a hedge against inflation, a study of financial assets over the past 112 years showed on Tuesday. While inflation does not reduce gold's real value, it has no yield or income flow and the precious metal has given a far lower long-term return than equities. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/uk-gold-hedging-idUKLNE81702120120208

Stored for Decades, Hitler’s Silver Is to Go on Display January 25, 2012, 6:59 pm For 66 years, they lay unseen, first in a vault on the Upper West Side, more recently in a special cabinet. Now the New-York Historical Society plans to put them on public display alongside a silver cigar box, a silver ice cream dish and the silver controller handle that Mayor George B. McClellan Jr. used when he drove the first subway train, in 1904: A knife and fork with the initials A and H, for Adolf Hitler. The historical society is including the Hitler flatware, part of a dinner service made in celebration of his 50th birthday in 1939, in an exhibition of 150 of the “most aesthetically and historically compelling pieces” in its collection, according to a description on the society’s Web site. The society says it received the Hitler silverware in 1946 as a gift from Carl M. Loeb, the financier and philanthropist who underwrote the boathouse in Central Park. Ms. Hofer said Loeb, who died in 1955, received it from an American soldier who apparently took it from Hitler’s vacation house in the Bavarian Alps as World War II was ending. The house had been bombed in April 1945. The society says it has no information about the soldier’s identity or why he might have given Loeb, a German Jewish immigrant who had made a fortune in metals before turning to Wall Street, a knife and fork from Hitler. They were the only items Loeb gave the society, and Ms. Hofer said they had never been displayed because “we never had an appropriate context in which to do it.” She said she felt the theme of the new exhibition and its more expansive sweep across time provided that context. “I myself am a descendant of German Jews who were chased out of Germany to New York by the Nazis,” Ms. Hofer said. “I find it a fascinating story.” Ms. Hofer said the Hitler silverware was like a train wreck — one could not help but look. “I think there’s a certain magnetism,” she said, “because you’re so repulsed by the thought of them being used by Hitler.” http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/25/stored-for-decades-hitlers-silver-will-go-on-display/

Governments and more tax: Gold, silver to cost more; govt changes duties to net Rs 600 crore NEW DELHI: Gold and silver will become costlier with the government on Tuesday tweaking the customs and excise duty structure on precious metals, a step which will make government richer by Rs 600 crore in the next two-and-half months itself. As per the changes, customs and excise duty will now be levied on the value of the precious metals instead of a fixed amount, meaning that the incidence of duty will move up with the rise in prices of the goods. Ouch! http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Gold-silver-to-cost-more-govt-changes-duties-to-net-Rs-600-crore/articleshow/11527332.cms Polish govt approves controversial mining tax Proposals for the tax put forward by Prime Minister Donald Tusk in November chopped about one-third off the market value of state-controlled KGHM, which is expected to report record earnings for 2011 thanks to high copper prices. Big Ouch! The levy on copper and silver production will come into force in March if parliament gives final clearance. http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6E8CH23K20120117

Gold, Silver may trade lower today: Angel Commodities Published on Wed, Jan 25, 2012 at 19:15 Angel Commodities has come out with its report on international commodities. According to the research firm Gold and Silver are expected to trade lower today on account of a stronger dollar. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-recos-commodities/gold-silver-may-trade-lower-today-angel-commodities_657128.html

Eastman Kodak says it bought $300 million of silver in 2011 The $300 million equals 8.49 million ounces of the metal at last year’s average price of $35.32 an ounce. http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20120119/business/701199886/

Winners "V" Losers of 2011 (W) - Physical Metals vs (L) Mining Shares Silver down 10% is not a winner It is compared to the XGD or most Gold/Silver mining stocks Winners - Those that know when to get in when to get out. Losers - The rest of us. Same as every other year. http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-271109.html#p271109

The Dangers Of Leveraged ETFs For every dip, you need a greater rise to break even. The disparity is amplified by leveraging. If you work out the math, for 3X leverage, the rise has to be just greater than d/(1-3*d). So for a 10% dip in the non-leveraged ETF, it needs to recover by 14.28% in order for the leveraged ETF to break even! http://seekingalpha.com/article/309261-the-dangers-of-leveraged-etfs Leveraged Silver ETF Plunges Nearly 40% from Peak http://www.etftrends.com/2011/05/leveraged-silver-etf-plunges-nearly-40-from-peak/

Gold, Silver Gain After Reports That Iran Made First Nuclear Rod January 02, 2012, 1:01 PM EST Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver gained after reports that Iran produced its first nuclear fuel rod, spurring investors to buy the precious metal as a haven. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-02/gold-silver-gain-after-reports-that-iran-made-first-nuclear-rod.html

Silver falls 9.5 pct in 2011, first loss in 3 years 31 Dec, 2011, 01.52AM IST, NEW YORK: Silver logged its first annual loss in three years on Friday, backtracking from a near-doubling in price during 2010, as worries about the global economy and a recent slide in gold hurt demand. US March silver futures on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up 2.2 percent from the previous day at $27.915, ending the year on a positive note as the metal followed gold's rally. But the silver price was down 9.5 percent from the end of 2010, when it closed at $30.86 an ounce. Silver prices plummeted shortly after they rallied to a record high of near $50 an ounce in early May, sparking the so-called commodities flash crash. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/silver-falls-9-5-pct-in-2011-first-loss-in-3-years/articleshow/11309902.cms

Awaiting Pivot Low in Silver Since its Sept-Oct recovery rally peak at $35.71, spot silver prices have stair-stepped to the downside towards a retest of the Sep 26 spike low at $26.02. If violated and sustained, this should trigger a final bout of long liquidation that presses silver into a minimum target zone in the vicinity of $25.00, but possibly into the $22.00-$20.00 target support zone, where I will be expect price stability ahead of the emergence of a sharp recovery rally period. http://www.advicetrade.com/middayminute/Awaiting-Pivot-Low-in-Silver-201112281890.html

Ghost of Christmas past more like.

Paulson Gold Fund Said to Lose 10.5% in 2011 Even as Metal Heads for Gain John Paulson, the billionaire money manager mired in the worst slump of his career, lost 10.5 percent in his Gold Fund this year even as the metal heads for its 11th straight annual gain, according to people familiar with the fund’s performance. Paulson & Co., based in New York, has lost money this year on investments including Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Sino-Forest Corp., the Chinese forestry company accused by short-seller Carson Block of overstating timberland holdings. Paulson, 56, cut the so-called net exposure in his main hedge funds to 30 percent last month and reduced bullish bets across all his funds. Net exposure is calculated by subtracting the percentage of a hedge fund’s short positions, or bets on falling securities, from its longs, or wagers on rising stocks and bonds. Gold BUGS Index Gold has climbed 13 percent this year, holding onto gains after peaking at $1,891 an ounce on Aug. 22. The 17-company NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index fell 11 percent as investors fled equities amid the turmoil caused by the European sovereign-debt crisis. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-23/paulson-gold-fund-said-to-lose-10-5-in-2011-even-as-metal-heads-for-gain.html

Gold to drop in Q1, far from retesting record high: Reuters poll (Reuters) - Gold prices will fall below $1,500 an ounce over the next three months and are unlikely to retest September's all-time highs until later 2012 at the earliest, according to a Reuters poll of 20 hedge fund managers, economists and traders. The bleak forecast, coming after gold has lost 11 percent of its value so far this month, is likely to fuel fears that bullion is close to ending its more than decade long bull run and entering a bear market. Almost half of respondents predicted bullion will fall to 1,450 an ounce in the first quarter next year, with three seeing prices as low as $1,400 an ounce. "What is surprising is that in an environment where headline risk news is bigger than ever, gold has actually fallen from its highs," said Christoph Eibl, CEO and founding partner of the Swiss commodity hedge fund Tiberius. "We believe that, in 2012, of all metals gold will be the worst performing," Eibl said. Four said they don't expect a new record until at least 2014. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/18/us-gold-poll-idUSTRE7BH09L20111218

2012 Gold Averages: Goldman $1,810/oz, Barclays $2,000/oz and UBS $2,050/oz Bullion banks remain positive on gold for 2012 with major banks predicting an average gold price of between 13% and 28% above today’s spot at $1,595/oz. It will be interesting to see if these forecasts get as much international media coverage as the poll of 20 hedge fund managers has. UBS have reiterated their bullish outlook for gold and believe gold will average $2,050/oz in 2012. This is 28% above today’s spot price of $1595/oz. Goldman Sachs said overnight that gold will average $1,810/oz in 2012 – which is 13% above today’s spot price. Barclays Capital have said this morning that gold will average $2,000/oz in 2012 – which is 25% above today’s spot price. Gold will move higher due to “structural pillars of support” in an environment of negative real interest rates and rising inflationary pressures, as well as continued central bank buying. Given the risks posed to the Eurozone and indeed the UK, gold priced in sterling and euros should experience similar gains - if not more. The ECB’s Draghi’s warning regarding a Eurozone break up, currency devaluations and the risk of a “big inflation” is a reminder that the price of gold should be considered not solely in dollar terms but also in other currencies –especially were the European single currency to become less single. http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/2012-gold-averages-goldman-1810oz-barclays-2000oz-and-ubs-2050oz

'Your worst enemy is yourself' (Chinese proverb) A very scary chart - Silver at $20 by Jan 1st? http://forum.treasurenet.com/index.php?topic=426212.0

Champion Takes Down Bank Vault In 5 Minutes 19 Seconds http://technofart.com/index.php/2007/01/20/world-safecracking-champion-takes-down-bank-vault-in-5-minutes-19-seconds-video/

Major Silver Discovery major silver discovery of a substantial amount of silver http://www.irw-press.com/en/news_14455.html

Will your shipment to das safe be chartered by das boot?

Gold, silver fizzle out on global meltdown MUMBAI, December 16, 2011 http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article2718245.ece