huntergatherer

Yes, me too-holding Au and thus exposure to US dollar by proxy. Also 'quietly' holding some US dollars (an Au short/hedge/fund) bought some time ago. Now working!

Ag below £10 oz @ £9.97 just now. Noticed low point of $15.99 reached! Has not been that low for a little while.

Dependent on enthusiasm.

Silvery shiny stuff: Charmed by a Medusa - deadly in its volatility.

Don't know if this has been posted: Why George Soros is after IMF gold http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Why-Ge...-23792-3-1.html

Did you not stock up during the recent 18 month correction/consolidation in Au just prior to the recent breakout above $1000?

Beware the gold in those hills The word out on the street. Bubble territory. One of the toughest decisions for investors is to stay on the sidelines when asset prices are heading upwards. This was true of the tech boom at the start of this decade and the credit bubble behind the great panic of last year. But there are usually clues as to when markets have moved into the realm of fantasy. Take the current boom in gold which saw the bullion price hit a record of $1,140 an ounce in London, helping to spark a rally in mining stocks. Accompanying the upsurge in demand for the yellow metal there are uncomfortable signs of a bubble mentality developing. India led the way by buying up to 22 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund. So why the current hunger for the yellow stuff? As a reserve currency the dollar is not that attractive at present because interest rate returns are so mean as the US seeks to repair its economy. However, one only has to look at the speed of the payback to the US Treasury by the banks and now General Motors to recognise some mending is taking place. The second fear is a recurrence of inflation as the consequences of low interest rates, quantitative easing and big fiscal deficits unwind. That is a real concern. But if the authorities get their timing right, and withdraw the stimulus in time, the gold price could backtrack as fast as it climbed. Bubbles have a nasty habit of bursting. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1...gold-hills.html

Gold Breakout Targets $1500 By Jason Hamlin, on November 10th, 2009 You will notice the 2007 consolidation period was the longest and the subsequent breakout was the most powerful to date at about 54%. If this trend continues, the current upleg has the potential to outpace the previous gain as it is coming off the heels of the longest correction/consolidation phase to date. Thus far gold has gained 10% from the $1,000 mark or about 15% from the right shoulder line at $950. If the upleg continues and mirrors the magnitude of the previous breakout, we should easily reach the price target somewhere in the $1450 to $1,550 range. This target also matches the $1,500 gold prediction made by Merrill Lynch at the start of the year. http://www.goldstockbull.com/articles/gold...t-targets-1500/ Breakout.doc

Gold “Undergoing Correction”, Signals “Forex Crisis Fears” By resourceINTEL · November 13, 2009 · 10:40 am “Gold is undergoing a slight correction, as the market is very long and the rise has been quite fast over the last few days,” says a note from MKS Finance in Geneva. “Gold’s surge may indicate that investors fear the next stage of the crisis will occur in the foreign-exchange markets,” says Philip Coggan in his Buttonwood column for this week’s Economist. “Developed-country governments have attempted to control bond yields through quantitative easing and to support stock markets through ultra-low interest rates. But they cannot support their currencies as well without risking problems in the bond and equity markets.” New data today showed US import prices falling faster than analysts forecast in October, while the monthly trade deficit widened by nearly a fifth to $36.5 billion. The 16-nation Eurozone reported an end to its 15-month recession, but with weaker-than-expected GDP growth of 0.4% in the third quarter. Thursday saw the US Treasury report a record October deficit, the 13th monthly shortfall in a row. The Federal Reserve last week vowed to hold its key interest at next-to-zero for an “extended period”. The Bank of England here in London has now created £200 billion of new money since March, using it primarily to buy government bonds as Whitehall’s deficit hits a peace-time record equal above 14% of GDP. China’s central bank reported record gold reserves this spring of 1054 tonnes. The Reserve Bank of India bought 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund at the start of November. Russia’s gold reserves have risen by more than 71 tonnes since January. “[Thursday's] price action shows as a large outside day,” says Scotia Mocatta’s technical analysis today, “typically good reversal warnings.” A lower close would be needed on Friday for technical analysis to “confirm” a change in short-term direction. The gold price in Dollars has risen 6.0% since the start of November. However a higher close for the week did not confirm a change in short-term direction. http://www.resourceintelligence.net/gold-u...isis-fears/3897

Taken from Ker's thread: (relevant here for daily news, comment and analysis) Gold price will plunge to $800: Marc Faber 2009-11-12 18:15:00 Several bullion analysts like Jim Rogers and Jim Sinclair have predicted that gold price would continue to boom. While Jim Rogers says gold price will zoom to $2000, Jim Sinclair has been arguing that the next stop for the yellow metal price is $1650 per ounce. But not every bullion analyst is bullish on gold, the hottest commodity traded in the world. Legendary investing guru Marc Faber says gold price is rising without any fundamental factors and thus the price of the yellow metal will plunge to $900-$800 levels. http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-p...-22853-3-1.html Gold Price Won’t Drop Below $1,000 an Ounce Again, Faber Says Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Gold won’t fall below $1,000 an ounce again after rising 27 percent this year to a record as central banks print money to help fund budget deficits, said Marc Faber, “We will not see less than the $1,000 level again,” Faber said at a conference today in London. “Central banks are all the same. They are printers. Gold is maybe cheaper today than in 2001, given the interest rates. You have to own physical gold.” So which one is it? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=az6qQ8ZuXg9M Marc Faber Is Conflicted About the Price of Gold Depending upon where you get your news, Gloom, Boom, and Doomer Marc Faber thinks that, after the recent run-up, the price of gold will either: Dip to as low as $800 an ounce, or Never sink below $1,000 again http://seekingalpha.com/article/173062-mar...e-price-of-gold

The Day the Bears lost Control of Gold By Bill Downey Nov 9 2009 2:24PM In was another incredible month as gold continued to outshine all other major investment themes by being the only investment that has broken out to new highs since the global meltdown of 2008. The magnitude of this event is one where gold spent 19 months hovering below the 1000 level and finally broke out to the upside. Since the beginning of September the gold price is up from 940 to 1100 in less than seventy days. What happened in late August? Technically speaking, it’s where the Bears lost control of the market. Look at how many times the bears tried to collapse this uptrend. On nine separate occasions the bears shorted this market and every spike down was GREETED WITH FRESH BUYING. It is a great display of a market turning point. There was one final element necessary to complete the process and that was the point of recognition and that was where the shorts began to cover and NEW market participants entered at the same time. The resultant explosion in price is sometimes called the "point of recognition" where the last three highs on the charts were taken out in FIVE HOURS. That point was a MAJOR reversal of trend and therefore where the bulls retook took control of the gold market. I took a leap of faith and doubled up my core position by adding at around $900/oz; now up over $200/oz (22%+) Original core position (FTB deposit equivalent) established around $600/oz. Up $500/oz. (83% up in dollars, 114% up in GBP) Property down 15-20% from 2007 peak. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Downey/nov092009.html

Indian investors dump gold for silver 2009-11-06 17:45:00 RAJKOT, India (Commodity Online): India's smart investors in the state of Gujarat have now realized the importance of silver following the huge rise in prices of gold. So, many of them have shifted to silver to make a killing. http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Indian...-22711-3-1.html

Gold Is Going To Suffer A Serious Correction In Dollar Terms By Derek Blain on November 5, 2009 Gold is going to suffer a serious correction in dollar terms. Greater than the one that occurred last fall, as this positive sentiment must be wound out. Dare I call these new highs in gold “malinvestment” as I would real estate? I certainly will, though even I cringe as I type the word. Malinvestment has to do with expectation and intent - those buying gold now have the same expectations of gold they did of real estate in 2006, that it will continue to go up. But we will be watching our dear metals. I am no gold-bull, but a gold-bug. And when gold really IS the best store of value you can bet the farm that I will be a buyer. Today, though, it is not - too many speculators have sucked the value out of it. Once they are gone my bull-flag will be back up, and up long-term. Until then, stay the course and protect your hard-earned savings, dear readers. The time to be bullish on the metals is not far at hand. It is just not today. http://www.dailymarkets.com/contributor/20...n-dollar-terms/

Are there any gold bugs on here? Today’s the Day for Gold Bugs November 6, 2009 http://blogs.wikinvest.com/dailyangle/2009...-for-gold-bugs/

Sell gold or hold till February Either way investors in an enviable position What to do Investors holding gold bullion are in an enviable position. Should they take profits during the current period of seasonal strength that started in July or should they wait until the end of the next period of seasonal strength from the end of November to the beginning of February? Holding between now and the end of November implies downside risk of about 10%. On the other hand, holding until next February offers intriguing upside potential. Investors will make the decision this week based on their personal investment circumstances and ability to take risk. http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=2139502

Agreed. I loaded up by adding to my core position around $900. Boat full to the brim with Au, however, some room for Ag. Must be careful I don't sink.

No, I don't think so. . I mean NO. Au is the strongest currency. My 'overweight' doubled up core position is a hold. My 'rock and a hard place' is Au. However..the Lord is my shepherd and I shall not want. I would not advise anyone to trade Au. My profits of currency trades and speculative positions of Ag have been put into Au. I do not want to give the impression it is a good thing to trade Au. My Au hedges my GBP by exposure to Au as currency in itself and to USD (reserve currency) by proxy. Thanks GF.

I doubled up on my core position of Au a few months back. (Ag sold last February) Core position at $605 additional around $900. Really caught in 'Indecision Dave' territory. (Caught between a rock and a hard place) Almost sold half on Monday before (!) recent new highs but still holding on. GBP not looking good. USD 'stronger'. May hold longer term.. however.. Looking to load up Ag.. but perhaps.. not yet.

I bought in with a much weaker dollar (£1=$2) averaging in during this time and bought near the low of $8.40 @$8.81 (able to buy 50% more metal at this price) I was able to buy a large quantity of Ag at low prices. I also sold during this time near the high within the last four days of February when there was a much stronger dollar. (watching out for heavy volume selling) My gains being around 15% higher than those achievable now despite the recent highs. I bought Au in 2006 (equivalent deposit on house) at $605 (£315) and bought with the proceeds from my Ag sell more Au near $900 with a stronger £ relative to dollar. Buy Low - Sell High

Seems like alot of talk about prices going higher - could be an indicator that prices have already topped for now. Is Ag ready to overshoot on a short term correction anytime soon? (watching out for heavy volume selling) Buying opportunity awaits?

Could this really be possible ? : $650 Au before $1007 Au (so close and yet so far) We may have seen a blow off high for the 30 year T-bond when the price moved up and out of the channel that has been in effect since 1987. This channel was in place for 22 years without being violated in either direction. A blow-off high may indicate that a breach of the lower channel line will occur. A close below the lower channel line will indicate rising interest rates. That would be bullish for the U. S. Dollar and bearish for gold Vis a Vis the U. S. Dollar. A final blow-off move is often indicative of a reversal of trend about to occur. A blow-off move out of a 22 year old channel may be a warning of major changes taking place. A change of the long term trend for the 30 year T-Bond means higher interest rates. $650 Au before $1007 Au? Gold bullion has completed 5 waves up and is working on its 3 waves down. The final [C] leg down of the 3 wave correction is missing and may soon begin. When the [C] leg is complete the next bull phase should begin. not to expect an imminent parabolic move to the sky for the precious metals complex. In due time yes but there are indications hidden in the charts that may be telling us not yet, not yet. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13102.html

The "bad" news is that maybe silver is not going to shoot to the moon anytime soon. I sold my Ag back near the spring high. Over 1500 oz. Stronger dollar back then. I have not bought into the Ag moon shoot (for the moment) and happy to hold Au in these uncertain times.

Gold Price Set to Rocket According to Swiss Money Managers: The price of gold is set for a sharp rally. I see it heading for $2000 per ounce over the next couple of years. That gives you a chance to pick-up an easy 114% profit if you get in at the current price of $933. The Swiss private bank, Gonet & Cie. has crunched the numbers on the US spending binge. And they’ve come to the conclusion that by the time Bernanke is done debasing the dollar, the yellow metal is going to fetch $2000 an ounce. http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/gold/go...ighs-45454.html

The Seven Immutable Laws of Bubbles: Example, Housing Markets in USA, UK & Dubai Housing-Market / Liquidity Bubble Jul 17, 2009 - 12:48 PM By: Andrew_Butter I got interested in bubbles in early 2008 trying to figure out why my model of real estate prices that had worked perfectly for ten years was saying that prices in Dubai which is where I was at the time, "should" have been 30% less than where they were. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12114.html Somebody else using charts and analysis on the housing market. FWIW

Bubble Bursting Warning Target $600? "equilibrium" price for gold of about $611. Now it's about $930 so by that logic, now it's about 50% too high, and market-long-waves says that if that was a bubble, and it pops, the trough could be 34% below the peak (1-1/(1.5), which would get it down to about $400 at the bottom. I know all the "technical" people are saying that gold is stable and there is a possibility of a big jump at some point. I don't see that, I smell a bubble. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12165.html