romans holiday

A re-testing of the 1600 level and then off to the races? This would complete the large consolidating cup [bowl] seen since the spike in 2011.

An explosive move up [towards 90] on its way soon? But then it's not leveraging the price of silver, more just reflecting it.

This chart showing the relation between silver's short term volatility and its strengthening over the long term [the 200 MDA] should lead to the arguably obvious conclusion; precious metals will not act as 'inflation hedges' - with simply explosive moves up in price - but rather they will steadily appreciate in the aggregate being not simply [hyper] inflation hedges but currency hedges. Some have been predicting this quite unmysterious move in price for years.

Telling time for silver:

Interesting spot for gold. Another wave down, or up up up?

You bought near the bottom of the consolidating phase, so there was always a good chance, given the volatility, that the price would continue to consolidate in the short term. It is in the medium/ long term that confidence is more well-placed towards an increase in the price [assuming silver/ gold is in a bull market]. When silver strengthens again, the short term paper loss will be eaten up very quickly. Stick with it. Check out the 200 MWA for silver; above 26.

A re-test of 1600 would give a good symmetry to the large cup pattern forming since Sept '11..

So something like a 20% appreciation of the 'base-line' averaged year on year?

$Silver not too far off its 200 week MA. Doubt it would get quite that low though.

Yep, pretty much agree. The 'technicals' can be just as much a disadvantage as an advantage insofar as they detract or distract from the simpicity of a long term log chart. Not sure what you mean by this.

Thanks PD. That has to be the chart by which to keep your bearings in the seasonal, or not so seasonal, squalls. I would interpret it slightly different as far as 'trend lines' go. As opposed to the straight line, where the price is supposed to 'bounce', I prefer to see the [occasionally punctuated] curvature of a cup on these kind of corrections. For me, the low point in '08 is the equivalent of the low we saw this mid year [which was around 1550 if I remember correctly]. The cup pattern this time round was not as deep. I think this dip here will be relatively brief.. perhaps down to 1600.... and then to new highs. If the chart [and that reading] is anything to go by, now is the time to buy. I agree with Sledgehead's point that often you have to let a chart speak for itself... and this long term log is speaking volumes. The trick for the trader, not to mention the investor, is to be disciplined and to bracket out the daily emotion and headline news. Helps also to be well hedged.

http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1355922791.php

Nice chart.... bet it looks even better on the log though.

These charts from stockcharts.com. But if you want longer time frames, you need to subscribe. The weekly and daily charts suit me fine for trading. I try to let the MAs do the talking. An excellent time to buy gold wouldn't you agree?

Perhaps a brief dip below the 50 week MA. $Gold looks to be tracing out a large cup pattern. This dip could be near symmetrical to the earlier dip at the end of last year [though perhaps not so precipitous as the price looks to be stabilizing/ consolidating near the MWA] before heading back to the old highs.

Or just some profit taking by the hedgies triggering some stop losses.

Gold down hard through 1700 even after the big meeting. Will be interesting to see whether support at 1670 holds.

On the backend of the long consolidation since the spike [a large cup pattern], the 50 week MA looks good support.

....

Looking at both MAs, the consolidation in silver seems to be near completed. Am guessing the 50 week MA will provide support in the interim beofre silver strengthens towards 50 next year.

Reckon the long term trend should hold alright... more of the same. Reason being, gold is an alternative currency. i see the term 'counter currency' is being bantered about lately.

Long term trend:

Down-trend resumed?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-retreat-after-sharp-gains-2012-11-30

Will be interesting to see if silver can push through 35 here or whether there is further consolidation in the recent trading range.