romans holiday

Nah, more like the first civilization co-incided with the mining of gold.

Good analysis here: http://news.goldseek.../1353511500.php

Good ananlysis of the trend here:

Gold down to 1670, back to the base of the cup.

double post

Gold down to 1670, back to the base of the cup.

If it were to be done on a log chart it would look more bullish. The use of the linear chart distorts the volatility in the second half making it look extreme to the upside, and then to look more like a break-down.

Ha ha, but you'd have to agree that a glance at the linear would tell most that they have completely missed the train as far as houes/ gold, or for that matter, pound/ gold goes. A glance at the log chart tells quite a different story; there is still quite good gains to be made from buying gold even here at this stage of the game. No doubt redundant to say, this is because the log chart over the longer term shows the real comparative value in terms of percentages. I am not completely averse to linear charts; they are fine for the short term.

The log chart is less despairing; the slump in value looks only two thirds complete instead of near fully complete. A good example of the need for logarithmic scale. http://gold.approxim...d_LOG_GUESS.png

Looking at the cup pattern that is forming, the initial corrections and recoveries are deep and steep. The last correction and recovery was shallower with a building equilibrium between selling and buying, and therefore is predictably the base of the cup. The bottom is in. This current correction should slowly grind down to meet the trend line coming off the base, so will in probability only go as low as around 1650. From there, steady buying pressure will form the upwards side of the cup leading to new highs.

I guess it comes down to the time-frame thing, and his call for a very short term pull-back looks good. His longer term bullish chart also looks good. It seems that the simplist charts, with the simplist trend lines, do all the talking these days.

Chart is also suggesting further consolidation. 1650? Perhaps even a brief dip to 1600.

it's the global economy stupid! Ha ha.. couldn't resist that. In other words; with globalism, capital is free to range the planet. Money will go to 'hotspots' irrespective of the national monetary policy. the same is happening in Auckland, NZ. The government here is apeing austerity, and there is a boom in the property market! With the instability and uncertainty, money is going into certain cities. Hong Kong still going well?

Aren't $Silver and $Gold ETFs? And don't most people who invest in silver or gold buy these ETFs? And haven't they made good profits over the medium term [either realized or on paper]? As for the double silver ETF, I take your point about it being risky in the medium term. Though I do have a medium term position with it, I focus more on trading another position in the short term.

Yes, pretty much agree with that. I'm just looking for a short sharp correction from the recent peak, of say a month, before the seasonal pattern sets in.

Both gold and silver looking due some consolidation:

Yes, but the magnitude of that spike when it comes is likely to surprise everyone [not to mention the following correction]. On the previous spike, most traders would have chosen the halfway resting point of 35 to short or sell. It then went on to 50! So we had silver go from 10 to 50 on the last leg... a magnitude of 5. If this leg rhymes with that one then you have silver going from 25 to 125. As is often commented, trades are often ruined by looking for the last 10% or so. A target of 100 for the [medium term] trade looks reasonable.

'Contangos' aside, I don't think it is very relevant to compare the oil market to the silver market. Oil is simply a commodity while silver has monetary properties. I've always predicted that the two markets would behave very differently in a [hyper] deflationary environment.... it is probabably easier to see the divergence between gold and oil, silver being so volatile. Questor laments buying the oil ETF, I have so far had some good trading success with the leveraged silver ETF. http://www.greenener...280#entry258441

I generally just take the markets as I find them... corrupt and all. The silver market ETFs largely set the price for silver. Any esoteric wisdom which predicts the explosion of these markets I take with a heavy dose of salt, yet still hold some gold bullion as insurance against that. Keep in mind also that I don't consider the aim of accumulating money an end in itself [the mistake of the miser] but rather the means to securing real assets. My long term aim is to be a lot less liquid by around 2015.

For the 'long' long term, you may as well sit on gold... due to the volatility of silver. For the 'medium' long term, say a period of 2 years, it is arguably best to trade silver and use the volatility to your advantage. To do that, you have to realistically value the dollar. Neither over-value nor under-value it. I am trading AGQ both in the 'medium' long term, and the short term: 1] The 'medium' long term trade will most likely erode value due to 'time decay'. But I think it will still at least perform as well as $silver. 2] The short term trade is to use the volatility of silver to increase dollars. This also hedges the first trade, not to mention 'long' long in gold. Here the 'time decay' element is an advantage.$/ Silver has come off to 34 from 35. AGQ has come off to 56 from 60! Perfect for what I am trying to do with this trade. Yep, with the leveraged ETF there is risk involved. Hence: http://www.greenener...280#entry258441

Yes, any pullback should be short-lived. And then again, silver may just meander sideways for a bit. Because of this, I'm also maintaining a heavy long position in AGQ even as I trade it. I'm not worried about possessing physical silver as am aiming to shortly convert monetary gains into real assets/ property. I've always thought, as far as bullion goes, gold is just as good to buy and hold if you are looking to stay liquid over the long term. I've found Goldmoney the most convenient for that.

That's an interesting instrument. I guess, for short term trading, it comes down to how you want to play it. I find the positively geared AGQ instrument more suitable for me because if I get the trade wrong, ie, buy and watch silver decline further, I'm not too concerned as think the position will be salvaged due to silver being in a long term uptrend. With this in mind, very heavy buy orders for a 'long' will be easier to make than shorting. I aim for near zero anxiety when trading.

Viewing the silver chart, a correction looks obvious. It has basically spiked to 35 from near 25, so a consolidation is in order. Calling it a 'bloodbath' or a 'brutal plunge' is a bit overly dramatic though. I mean we are dealing with the silver market here, which is typically volatile. i think there is a very good chance that silver will slowly retrace to 30 odd over the next month or so. I have a heavy buy order for the double silver [AGQ] at 40 with it now at 56. http://www.greenener...280#entry258441

There's a pattern that has often been seen on spikes and the following corrections. The price consolidates then strengthens in the shape of a jagged curve. I call it by the technical name of 'the Cheshire Cat grin'! Following this pattern, silver could easily see 30 here. Viewing the larger pattern, the bottom looks to be in.

http://www.reuters.c...E88N0UU20120925 "The investment interest in gold continues to rise, as we see COMEX net length increasing and gold ETF (exchange-traded fund) holdings up," said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures. "There is a strong likelihood that gold will rise further." Holdings in physically backed gold ETFs rose to a record high of 73.765 million ounces, or 2,294.348 metric tons, by September 24. Spot gold was little changed at $1,765 an ounce by 0308 GMT, after dropping to a one-week low of $1,755.30 in the previous session. U.S. gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,768. Some argued that though the sentiment in gold will continue to be supported by easy monetary policies, the momentum might be dampened by sluggish physical demand and high speculative interest in the futures market. "We still prefer to be buying gold on dips and believe the break higher will eventually come. But the futures market needs to lose some speculative length and the physical market needs to adjust to a higher price range first," said Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank in a research note. He expected gold to reach $1,900 in the latter half of the fourth quarter.