romans holiday

Good stuff. Brit houses priced in gold look to be in a corrective phase at the moment [of course, the whole chart is a correction]. I wonder how long it can defy gravity. Out of interest, is that 12, 26 and 9 weeks instead of days used to calculate MACD and signal line? Edited.

Especially liked this bit:

Firm Dollar Fails To Spook Gold By: Rick Ackerman http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1266822000.php

Will history rhyme this year? Comparing 2010 to 2008: If the Gold Price Does Not Quickly Move Up, Then Before Us Stretches Another 12 or More Months of Frustrating Sideways Trading Franklin Sanders http://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-price...ly-move-up.html After the previous spikes, gold has taken a year or so to work itself out of a consolidating inverted triangle.

Hi Bubb, didn't lose my temper, neither was I emotionally involved. The poster was suspended [third time now] due to disruptive posting [check out the last few posts], which only distracts the forum from discussing economic matters. Nothing personal in it at all. As a rule, I don't discuss moderation decisions on threads, but since you mention it here....

Could do. I'm thinking a major new parabolic high later this year, or early next year. If the dollar does remains relatively strong to other currencies, the fact that gold is strengthening in the aggregate against the world's reserve currency not only represents good prices but also something real.

Even with a dollar rally all the way up to 90 odd, gold should not decline much below 1000 if the previous pattern is anything to go by:

Nope... he's busy selling them!

Maybe, but the inverse pyramid involves capital moving from increasingly illiquid assets at the top down to the best forms of liquidity. In this context, gold is the most desired form of liquid cash as investors show an increasing preference for liquidity as opposed to investments/ assets. In a deflationary environment - once investors snap out of inflationary expectations - they will divest themselves of assets... this is proving slow to happen because investors have been habituated to investing, and indoctrinated into monetarist orthodoxy and constant growth. I've been reading Richard Koo's "The Holy Grail of Macro Economics - lessons from Japan", and he refers to yin and yang economies; monetary orthodoxy might relate well to the vibrant growing yang economy, but the contracting yin economy involves a move away from assets to liquidity [actually, the paying down of debt/ debt deflation].... and monetary policy is completely powerless to halt the process. He has a few interesting observations on gold also. The other thing is modern currencies today are themselves traded as assets of a sort on the fx market, and Soros is only too familiar with how vulnerable to speculation they are. Soros is making a big macro move here; reducing his exposure to other currencies and into gold.

Only 190 tonnes. I'd say most of that will be going to central banks [currency swap]. In buying gold, they will be in a better position to re-monetize their currency. They may have to do this to stabilize their currencies in the future.

Maybe he thinks it's a potential bubble. Investors have bubble vision these days. Bubbles are everywhere. Many are investing in China while consciously aware it is becoming a bubble. The idea is to speculate and ride the bubble up, not to invest. This has to make for one incredibly unstable and easily spooked market... unless of course they all suddenly decide it's not a bubble, but good solid growth after all. Ship of fools. ftr, I don't think gold can get in a bubble today, not when currencies are coming unstuck, and money is remonetizing gold. Only assets can become bubbles... and you got to ask yourself; is gold just an asset today.... or morphing into a currency which itself prices assets.

Cheers. I some physical bars back home. I'm also looking to buy silver at some point on a crash a la Hoye.... I am funding BV for this [uS dollars is the currency to have if you want to benefit from delevaging]. I'm also hoping to buy SLW on a crash... these would be trades, as I think silver will bounce back strongly to the upside. The GM silver I sold was a "buy and hold" investment [quite a large position percentage wise], but I think gold is the better metal to buy and hold. I thought it was about time I adhered more strictly to my macro principles, so now look only to accumulate gold, while trading silver and dollars on the large macro moves..

I've swapped all GoldMoney silver for US dollars [not my gold though]. Will fund a brokerage account with dollars and look to buy SLW... only if we see another market crash first of course. imo gold is to accumulate, silver to speculate.... and there are better speculations about. Silver could just end up going up and down against the dollar as they both strengthen in the aggregate against other currencies. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9211

I like the use of "buffetted" denoting chaotic conditions. Inflationary perceptions and deflationary forces could buffet the price every which way... where sometimes those deflationary forces take the price of gold up, and at other times down, and then inflationary perceptions do the same. All we need to do now is get Warren Buffet involved.

Some long term projections. Even if the dollar strengthens to 88 or 90, I doubt gold will decline much below 1000. I am bullish on gold as an investor, and bullish on the dollar as a trader.

Leveraged? I am long gold in my "buy and hold" account [bullion]. And also long dollar in the "trading" account [looking to buy silver at bottom prices]. No leverage and no dissonance.

I think the long term trend in gold will hold, but for now it looks to be consolidating while the dollar strengthens.

C'mon GF, you are better than this... why not adapt a little? As for bugs, whether a gold or fiat bug, they are overly attached towards something. They will never change their view towards something because of deeply held prejudices. I don't mean prejudice in a derogative way - a prejudice is something that will not change no matter the evidence; like an a priori truth such as 2 + 2 = 4. You could ignore the market price of gold, and insist that gold is worth the moon... but most bugs don't, and the market price is followed very closely. Can the investor afford prejudices... whether fiat or bullion ones? Investors should be more pragmatic and flexible, and not wedded to either "fiat" or gold... not be a bug towards anything. There is a time for everything right.

Well, I part agree with you GF. For investors, a currency devaluation would be massively damaging... but then the deflation in asset prices might off-set this [at a national level]. But then maybe by that time they would have stampeded out of assets. I think this is how a lot of "wealth" will be destroyed. What a mess eh! For consumers, without huge savings it might be different. The scarcity of [existing] money [not credit] will make money more valuable for them, and could even put downward pressure on prices even as there is upward pressure on prices due to a depreciated currency. Conceivably the two could cancel eachother out. I think the most likely outcome will be a lowered standard of living as people become more frugal and stuff becomes more expensive. I guess it comes down to how you define "hyper"-inflation. A depreciation of a currency is quite a different thing from the destruction of a currency.

The "end game" and the next few years are very different things. The end game might involve a devaluation... I doubt it will involve a hyper-inflation, not for major currencies anyway.

The problem for silver [not so for gold] is that demand for silver could be neutralized by an even greater demand for money. When markets liquidate, and investors chase money, silver will be caught up with it. The hyper-inflationary world view is utterly misleading. Actual money, as opposed to credit and debt [anti-money] could turn out to be very scarce. CNBC endlessly play an ad where "CBs are printing money"... the poor investor is standing there nearly drowning in money. This could not be further from the truth and investors are being suckered into spending/investing in order to support markets and asset prices.

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1265698860.php Some Gold Forecasts For Patient Bulls

QE started up when gold was at $900. I have been sticking to $900 as a solid support for gold for quite some time now [and 3 digit prices revisited quite likely]. A month ago this sounded bearish... it is now started to sound bullish... considering the other numbers which are being put out there.

Silver starting to slide, and the dollar is dawdling here.

Waiting to buy gold? The US dollar is the currency to sit in. Pounds, along with most currencies depreciating against the dollar. An even worse picture for those waiting in NZ or Aussie dollars. The solid turn in the kiwi and Aussie is signalling a swing towards deflation mode in the market. Buckle up.