romans holiday

Dawdling in the doldums [if we could call it that] at the mo.... but I noticed it dawdled at 70... so 50 could still be on the cards. One more spending spree by Mr market should do it.

You just can't please everyone all the time.

I think it is all a bit silly myself. Some took offence that investment was left out of the title with only trading left in... probably because they are offended that gold should be traded in the first place. [not a big deal really... Steve will restore the all important word in next month's thread no doubt] Due to the spat, some decided that perhaps distinct threads, focusing on investing and then trading, were required in order to avoid the squabbles [personally I prefer one thread where tolerance is practiced... but if intolerance persists , better to have separate threads] Why not change the title? Well, some would consider that pandering... but I couldn't possibly coment on that.

This was not "made a trading only" thread. This thread has always dealt with the wider aspects of gold investing and "trading" [what some of the god bugs consider trading is just hedging]. If I remember correctly, GF spat the dummy because "investment" happened to be dropped from this month's title, and decided to boycott this thread and start another one being restricted to "investing". I think people should chill out, spare the dramatics, and not read so much into something as inconsequential as a word happening to be dropped from a title. It is not a conspiracy people.

Gold is a hedge against uncertainty... as is government. I do not think people are being gloomy about gold so much as cautious. We all know where gold is going in the long run.... just that there could well be a valley or two on the way there.

Reminds me of the story about some ship-wrecked ancient mariner who couldn't bring himself to leave his gold behind. Needless to say, on jumping overboard he went straight to the bottom.

Welcome to the forum HN. I also suspect we could see a slump in silver sometime soon. I wonder though if we could see a final wave up before the market reverses. I am very overweight silver, so am looking to switch to gold when the ratio is more favourable. Obviously, gold will not be hit anywhere as hard as silver should we see a large sell-off in the market. The dollar is starting to look awfully cheap and I will be looking to buy it soon with a "peripheral" currency.

Think of capital flow. The money is flowing from the centre to the periphery on the risk trade. This pushes up commodities, commodity currencies, and stocks in especially emerging countries and "commodity" countries such as Australia. The high [uS dollar] price of gold is just reflecting a weakened dollar as capital moves out of it. Priced in Austrlian dollars, gold is down a little.

Gold is a lot more stable post QE. It has effectively been monetized and is being bought as a currency [or currency hedge]. As others have pointed out it is not making highs in a range of other currencies. The action in gold, as priced in dollars, is primarily reflecting dollar weakness here.

The market has entered.....

A bit of a knife-edge. In the short term, it could break either way with the dollar. I am expecting another wave up in the market, and a weaker dollar, before things reverse for a bit. I doubt very much that gold is too vulnerable to a reversal. As for silver....

Just about on the 18 handle. Silver looks due for a run up here... wouldn't be surprised to see it go to 19 quickly. Ratio back on track.

Still, pays to keep an eye on the mass media and the market in order to take advantage of mass ignorance: Perhaps we will see one last wave up in the market, before it all turns around. If we saw a downturn, I expect gold to hold up relatively well whereas silver is likely to be hammered, which is why I will be converting silver to gold once the ratio nears 50.

I think the issue is being a little narrowed here. I do not consider myself a gold bug [too emotional] so could be called a non gold-bug. Yet, I think you are getting at something else as I also like gold and invest accordingly. I consider myself a gold bull [a middle way??? ]. Maybe the term anti gold bug is useful to refer to a prejudice against gold as money. It seems a lot of discussion, whether political, economic or whatever, is reduced to a binary logic and then partisan positions are taken where the twain never meet. I am much more interested in using a logic which can bridge the gap between a thesis and its anti-thesis. I think this kind of logic, though less "certain", reflects more accurately the real world we live in. Binary logic [rationalist] is ideological and more often than not completely divorced from reality. A gold bull can happily think of gold as once again functioning as money [perhaps even formally with the re-institution of an exchange gold standard] without subscribing to some of the less well-thought through ideas of gold bugism.. such as the imminent destruction of the dollar and all fiat.

Fair enough. But also consider there can be just as much prejudice against gold as there can be for it... which is why I try to foster a pragmatic approach, as opposed to an ideological one, to both gold and money. I highly recommend Kindleberger's "The World in Depression" which looks at the breakdown of International trade and the gold exchange standard. He is not a gold bug btw... nor an anti gold bug.

Are we off-topic? Perhaps we need another gold thread for discussing value theory. The reason I am investing in buying gold is I believe it is in the process of being re-monetized, which will eventually be formalized in a new gold exchange standard, possibly involving IMF SDRs, to which currencies will be pegged. I think we will see a series of currency crises within the free-floating system over the next few years.This is where the practicality [as opposed to pure theory] of gold as [notice not "is"] money will come to the fore [this has been discussed on another thread]. It looks to me that that the financial crisis is leading to the destabilization of currencies and international trade. I guess you could say I am buying for macro-economic reasons rather than buying gold as a conventional "investment" as such. With the "re-booting" of the macro-economy, it is likely that assets priced in gold will be cheap. [i am not much of a believer in linear progress, more a belief that history is cyclical, which is perhaps why I see a return to a gold standard as likely] I wonder if there is a paradox here. You are looking for a rational certainty of sorts as to why the market value of gold would go up or down. Yet, it is only due to uncertainty... and when conventions break-down, that gold starts to become more valued. This is why I say it has symbolic power [the strongest symbol of money]. There is a lot to be said for the idea that money, in general, is a hedge against future uncertainty.

I am not sure whether the "gold bug narrative" is supposed to be philosophically sophisticated. I think its function is more to provide something close to a coherent explanation as to why gold is of supreme value to those who already believe this. The "dogmas" you refer to are for the edification of those belonging to a certain faith [this is also why hostilities arise from time to time over the subject]. That said, I think it is perhaps punching a straw man to identify the gold-bug creed with gold in general and the reasons why one should invest in it. It would be like writing of all religion and philosophy because you disagreed with one particular sect.... however large it was. What do you mean by intrinsic value? Would something be intrinsically valuable if there was no-one to value it? What I am getting at here is "value" is anthropocentric; things have value insofar as there are valuers [people value them]. It is difficult to objectify/measure value as classical economics has tried to do. The labour theory of value as a prime example of this. Perhaps you mean by intrinsic value, something that is useful, or has utilitarian value; something is valuable because it performs a function. From this definition, it could be argued that gold has/does function as money and is thereby valuable on that basis... as a means to an end... say, the purchase of food. Like you, I do not think "gold is money" [strictly speaking]. Money is an idea/ ideal/ abstraction. Gold can function as money... that is be a currency... just like many other things can function as money. Some currencies are better than others, though not on theoretical grounds, but on practical ones; the best currencies are the ones that works. As you no doubt are well aware, the classical definitions of what makes a good form of money is functional; something that is both a medium of exchange and a measure and store of value. This is why I do not write off fiat currencies....yet. Consumers and investors still value them. Yes, gold is not an end but a means to an end. The "dogmas" can lead to an emotional attachment where detachment is called for. The gold bug often cries foul that someone should contemplate exchanging it for fiat currencies... but the aim of the gold bull [who sees an "investment" opportunity in gold] is to be able to eventually swap it anyway, preferably for higher goods in life, such as free-hold and productive property, or a boat, or whatever that might enable you to enjoy certain conditions in life. That is real wealth, not the amount of gold you happen to be sitting on.

When getting down to the bedrock of money and value, I find it useful to take an "ideal, psychological" perpective on money at times as opposed to a "real, objective" one. From this point of view, gold is considered the strongest symbol of money.... though at times this symbol may move to the edge of the collective imagination, and at others be renewed and become central, its symbolic power remains relatively constant. Historically, this symbol has shone brightly over the imagination of the species. This past generation or so has been the anomaly... perhaps more so than any other time, and perhaps more so in our culture. Gold, the most primeval symbol of money, now looks to be reasserting itself for practical reasons as opposed to theoretical ones. Modern currencies are becoming increasingly "problematic" and hence gold is beginning to stir. I doubt gold's restoration will be in a straight line though.... nothing in nature is straight.

Gold certainly has an affect on you. As was once said; "Gold is tried by a touchstone, and men by gold".

A good point. How about just calling the thread "GOLD". Also, can't we all just get along?

Was thinking the same. Co-inciding with the price rise, some have got a little bit excitable these days. No doubt things will calm down a little soon. These threads have never really had much about short-term trading on them. Those that are not "in 100%" are mostly discussing timing and hedging in an extremely volatile market..... not how to make a quick buck. Seems to me the "day/swing trader posts" have been a very small minority on this thread [imo they should be tolerated anyway].

But then some might consider that pandering to demands... but I couldn't possibly comment on that. Have to say the double posting is getting a bit tedious.