romans holiday

C'mon.... say you will eat your hat if it did.

I wonder though if gold could become increasingly monetized [in the minds of investors/nations] to the point where the gold exchange standard will be re-instituted. The problem facing the trading system today is that is has been destabilized by the collapse in the US. The response to this collapse looks likely to further destabilize the free-floating currency system. If this does not necessarily lead to hyper-inflation, it may well still lead to currency crises where governments try to devalue their currency which would then see capital flight from one to another. Out of this kind of chaos, I can see the practicality of gold as the stabilizer of world trade reasserting itself [the value of which cuts across all cultures]. Personally, I see the price of gold eventually doubling from here within a couple of years time [though it will remain volatile to both sides] , which would effectively reflect certain currencies devaluing by a half. As for a new gold exchange standard, it could be SDRs backed by gold to which currencies would be pegged and stabilized.

Well, the proof will be in the pudding.... lets see what happens in the next few months.

There is a real chance the dollar will rally in the next year or so by 50%. Then from a position of strength suddenly devalue against the stronger currencies. It is all relative. Over a couple of years, the USDX could first go to 100 before going to 50.

For sure, keep away from margin/ leverage etc! Neither a borrower nor lender be.

Bought that one already! Mind you, I wouldn't mind one of those golden gilded books from medieval times. I bet that would have made for good bashing over the head.

Quite the opposite to gambling, my approach is conservative. I am hedging not gambling though I can see, by your hyper-inflationary logic, why you might think so. Personally, I do not think the dollar will hyper-inflate but devalue, by say 50%, and then only eventually. Some would say you are gambling by having 100% in silver, but I couldn't possibly comment on that.

Can't argue with that.

Ah yes, but the problem is there is another wise tribe giving an opposite prognosis. To make it even more confusing, each tribe calls the other foolish. Those that subscribe to a tribe become dogmatic... I'd rather profess skepticism towards the dogmas on offer and take a more pragmatic approach.

I have always said there are no certainties and that you should have a hedge. I have also consistently said that a cash hedge only makes sense within the context of a large bullion position [actually it is implicit in the meaning of the words]. Not very complicated stuff. I think the problem lies more in the fact that some have a dogmatic view that can not see beyond "fiat is toast.... full stop".

Well, I wouldn't say I am on the path to ruin given that I am already heavily invested in metals. Considering that nothing goes up in a straight line, that you should always try to manage risk and stay hedged, and that there are no certainties in life [besides d and t of course] I feel quietly confident. Actually, I do not see how my approach is really that different to the "100% buy and hold on for dear life" approach.... just a little more nuanced

If I did not already have around 70% of my liquid worth in gold and silver already, then yes I would be buying. However, I am satisfied with what I have now... and considering that if I bought more I would be 100% in metals, I will restrain myself for bargain basement prices. If there is no dip and the bargain prices do not come, I would not have lost out much due to the large position I already have.... and besides metal I will still have cash in a relatively strong currency. I think before this bull market is over, we will see people panicking out of positions every which way. I want to be laid back and completely comfortable with my holding, and also be in a position to take advantage of any volatility or chaos in the market. Expect the unexpected. From:

I don't disagree, which is why I have a cash reserve...in order to buy silver on a possible dip.

Or alternatively, gold 1050, silver 21.

Yes, that is why I say 900 and not 600. Since the institution of QE, I have thought the floor at 900.

No, more like 900.

A little surprised that the massive spike up in the ratio does not get a mention, nor that the ratio might now have become a LOT more volatile.

Silver blasting up and now on the 58 handle. I wonder if the 50 ratio will see gold at $1100 and silver at $22. One more wave up in the market and a weak dollar should do it.

Would that be 2030?

Truly homo economicus.

US bonds.... short term?

I am wondering if the markets might be just taking a breather here before one last wave up on the inflation trade. The Dow through 10000, the gold/silver ratio to near 50 and the dollar nearing its all time low of 72 would make for a fearful symmetry..... before all whiplashing in reverse.

Silver has come a long way fast and is due a breather here. One more wave up in the market should see the ratio get well into the 50s.... where I will be getting a very itchy finger to swap to gold... and bunker down for a possible market crash.

Yen. Now wondering where to put this couple of months income...... dollars looking cheap. Must keep powder dry for next crash.

sold some silver...