romans holiday

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=130975 Maybe you missed this. I was hoping we might be able to get beyond the evil greedy "traders" thing this month.

To all the grannies out there. Once the gold/silver ratio hits 50, swap your silver to gold as this will protect you should the market crash. Once the market crashes load up again on silver with your cash reserves. PS. I have always stated that a core position in bullion is of primary importance.

Was thinking the same. Looks like its about to be broken. 1031 now. NEW ALL TIME HIGH 1035!!!!!

What did you say? [No, always read your posts]

Gold bull actually. Gold bugs tend to be way too emotional about something as mundane as money.

I liked DoctorSolar's measured take on those who decide to so-call "trade". This word has been near demonized by some, which also leads to confusion about what people are actually doing. A few points: 1] Different strokes for different folks. We should all be open-minded and liberal enough to accept that equally intelligent people often come to differing conclusions [lets keep puritanical and moralistic judgements out of economics and investing and maintain a healthy discussion]. I think most here would agree this is a healthy thing and the opposite of "groupthink" is to be avoided, where people stop thinking for themselves and starting to succumb to the herd mentality. The main stream media has no monopoly on groupthink... it can also be found on within fringe media. 2] What some consider "trading" is anything but. Trading gold usually entails trying to make a profit [in a fiat currency] on the short term volatility in the gold price. Most so-called "gold traders" here know that this is a mugs game. The reality is that most of the "traders" here, having already a massive position in gold, are merely refraining from going all in ... in case of a dip in price or a market crash. This is just common sense hedging and can hardly be criticized by the 100% crowd [who predictably enough are usually 100% certain about the future]. 3] So with the above in mind, I'd like to coin a new word, "intrader" where one is primarily a gold investor but is also willing to hedge [being 100% uncertain] in the event the market crashes and gold dips [silver actually] in order to only then buy in 100%.

I like the first scenario [900] which I see as very plausible. I think this might be as good a time as any to pin two threads each with a distinct focus; one for the "traders" and one for the investors. I think that all will still post on both, but a lot of misunderstandings/ confusion might be avoided. Any comments? Edit: I see DoctorSolar suggests the same.

+1. With silver being the most volatile currency.

zzzzzzzzzzzz

I didn't bother as you obviously seemed unable to comprehend the original post on greed. I'll post it again for you here. Have another read, and try to pay attention. If you still do not get it, I certainly will not be bothering to reply to any more of your posts.

Clearly, one unhinged individual, and completely missing the point.

Some good points Fortune. I wonder about the greed thing though. Wouldn't you agree that some who rush into 100% bullion could themselves be greedy [not referring to yourself of course]... and those that restrain from this "all in" approach could have this emotion in check. What I am getting at is that no position has a monopoly on greed.... the opposite could be well argued where a cautious sober minded person chooses to keep their powder dry not because they are greedy for lower prices but because they are simply being prudent. Also, the "all in" crowd often resort to "tptb" to explain why the price does not rocket to the moon, and why there are frequent "smackdowns". The obvious question is that if they believe this then why don't they keep some serious powder dry for the big "smackdowns". Pretty obvious who the morons are here.

...not to mention idiotspeak.

That would never happen here.

There are some very immature insecure annoying boorish posters here that are just a waste of bandwidth. Grow up.

I do not even bother trying to trade the minor moves. Trying to chase or time the market is futile imo and you'll end up just tying yourself up in knots. Instead I simply keep a large cash position besides an even larger bullion position and wait for the right market conditions. It is both a hedge and provides the opportunity to buy bullion silver cheaply on the big dips if/when they come. I consider profits taken only after accumulating further gold cheaply; buy silver with cash on the big dip, then swap silver to gold when the ratio gets to around 50. As for making money from this strategy, the next few months will be lucrative if silver is volatile to both the up and down side.

For sure, which is why deflation has to be reckoned with...albeit unconventionally. Once gold is considered a currency [remonetized in the minds of investors/nations], and that certain other currencies are being debased/ devalued, then it is a pretty good bet gold will perform well. Inflation is quite unnecessary.

The way I see it is that silver, being more speculative, is quite vulnerable to being sold off. But I think it will also bounce back well which makes it a very interesting investment vehicle. With this in mind, I consider silver good for speculation, and gold good for saving.

Though I make a song and dance about deflation, I certainly do not consider myself a conventional deflationist. For me, it is a matter of incorporating the valid points of deflation with the likelihood that currencies will indeed depreciate in a very real sense this time round. This unified view I have termed hyper-deflation. The other theory will most likely lead to unexpected/ undesirable behaviour in the market.

I think another meltdown in the not too distant future is likely. This will see a spike in the dollar and Yen and a collapse in asset prices. I am not so sure about the "biflationary thesis" where necessities/consumable goods become more expensive. If a full-on deflationary environment eventuates then there will be plenty of downward pressures on prices to counter the upward ones. Most are envisaging that a weaker currency will lead to higher prices in oil and imports etc... but I am not so sure of this [just heard a podcast today stating year on year consumption of gas is down 30% in the US ]. Exporting nations will see their markets shrink quickly and will drop prices quickly also. Local currencies will retain there nominal worth at the local level in so far as money becomes more valued by consumers and hoarded [countering upward pressure on prices]. It is only at the international level [and as far as investors are concerned] that currencies will devalue; they will devalue against stronger currencies such as gold, silver and perhaps some other Asian currencies. They might not devalue against local assets. At the national level you would just see stagnation; asset prices might go nowhere or even decrease against the currency as you would expect in deflation. However, keeping in mind that local currencies themselves are deflating in value against stronger ones there is a double depreciation in asset prices going on here; as priced in the local currency an asset depreciates, yet that currency itself could well depreciate against a stronger one such as gold. Where an asset price might halve when priced in the local currency, it may well quarter against gold.

I agree that "timing" is a mug's game. I think it is more about hedging and then hedging with the potential to buy at low prices [silver anyway]. With hedging you are waiting for the market to come to you, rather than chasing it.

As I said, you should first have a solid position. Could be different strokes for different folks here.... the main thing is to be comfortable, and anxiety free. with what you have. Also, keep in mind that anxiety can potentially arise from having too large a position as having too small a one. It really comes down to the individual.

With gold I wouldn't try to "time" it as much as I would for silver, as gold is a lot more stable. That said, if you have up to 50% of your liquid worth in gold then what is the rush? With silver it is a much different story in my opinion. Being a lot more speculative and volatile, you ought to wait for a good price.... assuming you have a solid position in gold already.

Looks like the dollar's getting the kicking today.