romans holiday

Quite a jump. And silver back to 12.70. Still not buying though. I reckon at some stage this summer we will see a big dip and will load up then. Due to further deleveraging and a deflation scare in the schizoid market.

Unless there are fireworks in the heavens above, I think this will be another tedious slooooow week for gold. I wonder if it will continue to grind down slower for the next few weeks until it hits around 800 or 750. If it wasn't for the QE event I imagine we would get there a lot quicker. Good buying opps coming up.

If I remember rightly, Jim Rogers, or some other luminary, bought on the last dip at 750. That would be nice.

If you believe there will be a super abundance of "money" in some hyper-inflationary flood of it, then yes, buy as much gold and as soon as you can because your paper will soon be worthless. If on the other hand you believe, as I do, that there will be a scarcity of money in the next few deflationary years you will be much more cautious in how and when you spend it. Gold will only double... or at most triple in price from recent peaks. Hence if I can buy twice as much gold with my limited reserves and income, I will do a lot better than buying willy nilly. The prime reason to buy gold is not because paper will become worthless, but because currencies may depreciate against real assets. And the market is the market, and money is what people take it to be. Get with the program.

To buy or not to buy. The trend is down... but a slooow down as investors look indecisive. We have further QE looming in the background, but now deflation expectations are once again coming to the fore. A schizophrenic market could see pog go either way... but I think short term the trend is down. Even so, I will look to start averaging in shortly. My aim is free hold property and I think it is a fair bet that in a few years time 100 ounces should be able to achieve this. If the deflated price of an average property should be worth 3 years earnings, and given I save most my income, I reckon 4 years savings should buy a property. 100 ounces divided by 48 months is 2 ounces. Therefore, by my reckoning, if I can buy 2 ounces of gold with my monthly savings that represents excellent value [as long as I keep some powder dry for the possible big dip]. Presently, gold looks like a good buy to me and if it gets cheaper, all the better the value. Even though pog does not look likely to explode at the present moment, one has to wonder for how long pog will remain at these levels.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Gold...40DA151D09EF%7D Though I think it is not so clear cut as a simple tug of war between inflation and deflation as the article makes out. Gold spiked on fears of a deflationary collapse... and then did not do much when they pulled the QE trigger. pog may fall here as investor sentiment improves. Inflationary expectation would only support the price here. I imagine pog will spike again once the wave of optimism recedes and we see new lows in the Dow and renewed fears for the economy. May take a few months.

The metal is finally moving....down... thought we had gone into the goldrums for a while there. Glad I decided to only start averaging into silver... down 0.40 cents today.

Will start to average into silver at goldmoney shortly. Decided to buy silver for the following reasons: 1] The ratio with gold is favourable at around 70:1. 2] Seems to me silver should pick up a bit before gold does due to the money going into commodities given inflation expectations. 3] Long term goal to acquire 100 odd ounces of gold. 4] 200 mda has been dragged down with silver. Still high with gold.

Odd pattern this one. Looks like a base of sorts is being built for now due no doubt to inflationary expectations [QE]. I just wonder if when the Dow rally runs out of steam in a month or so we could see new lows and a dash out of assets back to cash. I am thinking of maybe putting monthly income into gold here while keeping a good stash dry for the deflationary drop which I think there is a good chance of eventuating. Like you, am in deepish.... so feel no rush to buy now. I am looking to keep 50% in metal and 50% in a variety of paper. Buying weakness in currencies with the aim of accumulating metal.

You are only waiting for a mere 20 pound drop? Harden up. But seriously, it could go a bit lower, or it could build a base here and develop into a reverse head and shoulders pattern as some have suggested. imo though at some point, perhaps at a later date, it is sure to go on a major dip. It would be good to have some serious powder dry to take advantage. Depends of course how much of your liquid worth is already in gold.

Dow slips, and gold up a bit.... ho hum. Singapore, following the Swiss, devalue a little. For those doubting the imminent Weimer-like destruction of our currency, consider an alternative. A see-sawing devaluation of currencies commences as the platitudes of G20 wear off and real market forces exert themselves on the politicians. The price of commodities/real stuff as priced in depreciating currencies continues to grind upwards only slowly due to the dead weight of demand destruction. Speculators chase paper gains and their own tails. Meanwhile gold and silver rise in line with commodities but then at a slightly faster pace as they become further monetized with the fear premium taken up by the monetary premium... all of which takes two or three years to unfold with massive volatile swings in the interim as market sentiment goes from inflation to deflation and then back again.

No fixed target. I might not be swapping back for a few months and suspect the USDX could be a bit higher by then especially if we see another round of forced liquidations in assets. I have a large core position in bullion so feel I can "afford" to wait for an excellent price. My purchasing fund is in US dollars which I have always thought to be the currency to swap in and out of. I notice the US dollar has been strengthening of late so do not feel nervous being in this currency.... for now. I am also thinking of buying Canadian dollars, which look cheap at the moment, when next funding goldmoney. As far as swapping goes, I would not be doing it if I did not envisage huge volatility. Also, I am not much interested in swing trading but just restricting myself to "fishing"; selling a portion at the peak and waiting for the valley.

The market is short sighted. A conventional valuation which is established as the outcome of the mass psychology of a large number of ignorant individuals is liable to change violently as the result of a sudden fluctuation of opinion.... the market will be subject to waves of optimistic and pessimistic sentiment, which are unreasoning and yet in a sense legitimate where no solid base exists for a reasonable calculation. Maynard Keynes.

Yes, to make a profit in gold ounces of course. Yes, I went on a bit of a fishing trip at the last spike [at 950]. I have reasons to think pog will go lower here... could be wrong and if so... will buy back in at around 900 with no loss. The market is not as rational as we are. Sure, we see terrible fundamentals and they will eventually play out. In the meantime, nervous nellie investors looking for inflation hedges and worried that they might miss out on a resurgence and recovery in the DOW will pile in. In the short term this would push gold down as money moves into stocks and commodities. This is the time to buy...GOLD [i would add here that the currency in which you keep your powder dry is of significance]. I think unemployment and a contracting economy will definitely bite at some time and bring the latest wave of optimism to an end. These deflationary forces will bring about new lows in the DOW along with new highs in gold as money moves back to it as a safe haven and currency. My hope is to buy low so that I can ride the next spike up and go fishing again.

Yes, the coming few weeks will be telling. The head and shoulder pattern sure has aesthetic value going for it... but I fear hope we may see another larger bowl. I guess it depends largely on the "feel good" factor and whether markets continue to rally and punters see improvement on the horizon rather than meltdown [and how deep an impression QE made and how long the memory lasts].

Is the market returning to normal? Some investors are thinking so but I reckon this is impossible simply because there was no "normal" to begin with, the boom which busted was an anomaly that was fuelled by veblenesque consumerism which was only made possible by a flood of credit. Even if the credit is sloooooowly restored the veblenesque psychology needed for conspicuous consumption is not going to return anytime soon. I give the rally a few months before.... Also, liked this article by Rick: http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1239256740.php

Good opportunity for those who either have kept some dry powder or those that went "fishing" at the peak. fwiw, if I was all in, I wouldn't sell now, with risk/reward more limited, but wait for the next time round [unless for some reason you think pog will tank]. Also, if the dip is prolonged there is still a good op to buy cheaply with acquired income.

Good point. Perhaps, a good place to start buying. Depends of course on your own personal risk analysis and risk appetite, that is, how much of your worth is already in gold and how much is sill exposed to economic meltdown. I am in no great rush to buy as am already pretty much bunkered down.

We could perhaps see a third "bowl" here [i like to think of them as grins]. Connecting the previous bowls into a "superbowl" we could see gold go a bit lower. Good news is the superbowl will be on the upside once this low is reached.

I mull over decisions while tossing a 100g bar in the air... makes a very pleasing ringing sound if you flick it just right. Careful though, pleasure can turn quickly to pain if you drop it on your toe.

Yes, imo whether or not you buy here or wait depends I guess on what percentage of your worth you already have in bullion. With a core bullion position of 50%, I am in no hurry to buy. I agree that at some stage, perhaps here, we may see a large fishing line. The market correction is looking solid..........for now.

My birthday is on 24. Might be auspicious to wait 'til then.

Yes, will keep a little in reserve for that one.

At what levels are people thinking of buying at? pog is now at 876, not far off the 200mda [860]. Very tempted to wait for even lower prices.

Yes, FDRs dollar devaluation against gold helped with the debt deflation in the great depression. With currencies free floating it will be very interesting to see what happens this time round. Some might be able to depreciate, others to their chagrin might do the reverse and appreciate. I guess there always remains the last resort of a formal devaluation but could you imagine the economic state and politics of that country. Reminds me of this 80s song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8L9WSJi4hc...feature=related