romans holiday

Yes, I see your point but if you think as I do that we could see a large dip in pog at some time you need to keep some powder dry in some currency. The dollar is perhaps the best in an ugly contest for this. It also gives you diversity in currencies and a hedge.

Well, firstly my opinion was hedged so how could I be wrong? [1200 could be the top of a higher range... hardly a rocket] As for the reaction to the QE news, do you not think that could have been a bit of a knee-jerk reaction by investors, an inflation scare, and that investors, a notoriously fickle lot with a short attention span [or maybe that's traders] may run after stocks if gold fails to meet their expectations. No doubt Bernanke will have to keep scaring them with more QE in order to fight deflation which could see the stock market rally strengthen. Also, if you are not trading at all and are a long term holder of gold where you believe it will do extremely well for fundamental reasons, why are you concerned whether gold goes up or down here? Do you need something as erratic as a short term rising pog to justify or verify your firmly held belief? In so far as he was concerned, wouldn't the buy and hold investor type prefer to see pog do down and stay down for a while in order to be able to acquire more?

This week will be telling for pog. The market seems indecisive here. Stocks could continue to rally which could see gold sold of a bit. On the other hand gold could move up a little and establish a higher range. Can not seeing gold rocketing anytime soon. I will be keeping some powder dry in US dollars for a while yet.

No helicopter drops yet.

Yes, makes you wonder why it hasn't rocketed. Hmmm.... let me see.....deflation! Even though gold will not rocket I think it will strengthen as the strongest currency/ safe haven. I reckon it will eventually double from here as the other major currencies devalue though in the meantime could well be wickedly volatile.

opps.

Well, that was a surprise to wake up to. They actually went ahead and did it. Funny, I was thinking of buying Euros last night. Will be interesting to see where pog settles here.

"from my cold dead hands!!"

The market can remain irrational longer than....... just as well most here aren't on margin right?

Pretty much agree with you DrB that pog could go lower here in the short/medium term. I suspect there are a few factors which could cause it to go even lower than 850: - the market could turn from inflation expectations to deflation expectations - the dollar could strengthen even in the face of QE as investors seek to hold dollars as asset prices continue to deflate - the rally in stocks could continue for a bit - the rally could falter, DOW could collapse further causing further forced liquidation in other assets such as gold - oil/gold average ratio 14:1 [funny how this one has fallen off the radar] Conversely: - gold could reverse and go to 950 if the dollar starts to decline - gold goes to the moon given some hyper-inflationary event [but can not see this happening anytime soon]

Always a good time to buy.... if you don't have any yet.

Getting close to 900. May be a significant level for pog as some investors see 900 breached and decide to sell while others decide to wait for it to go lower before buying.

Britain showing signs of heading towards 1930s-style depression, says Bank http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...-says-Bank.html Oh great, a meglomaniac.... who thinks he is in charge.

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Fallin...-15994-1-1.html

OK, he's an idiot. But consider that the market can also be idiotic at times... and that the article may "idiotically" represent how market preoccupations may develop in the near future. What effect would that have on POG in the short/medium term?

The Swiss government openly intervened and depreciated their currency on the forex markets causing a lot of safe haven money to go to gold. No link sorry. Competitive devaluation here we come....let the currency wars begin.

Yes, I just noticed the Dow has gone back through 7000.

Buffet is an equities man. He did extremely well in a period of growth. The tide has changed and we are now in a period of wealth destruction. It has been estimated that 45% of the world's wealth has already been destroyed. Buffet's own account is down 50% this year. You do not need to be a rocket science to see that gold as a currency is one of the best places to preserve your capital. http://www.iht.com/articles/reuters/2009/0...-BLACKSTONE.php All money is "anthropocentric" where it depends on psychology and people's acceptance. Ask yourself; "Has gold been accepted, is gold being accepted and will gold be be accepted as a store of value by the market?"

Oh right, yeah this stock rally looks like a sucker rally alright... if it gains traction it will suck a bit out of gold.

This is interesting. I am looking at that chart. We must be looking at different stages! I think we are just at the beginning... at the run up well before it goes mainstream. That is a bear trap on that chart where many get cold feet and bail out as the price of the asset falls away and people become bearish. The bear trap traps misguided bears. Isn't the bull trap the one where people fail to exit at the right time; when the market really is in a bear? The bull trap traps misguided bulls. Do you think we have seen the manic phase?

Don't you mean a bear trap? To catch the bears... though it could also become a "bull" trap if it is low and wide enough. Those who have constantly thought that gold could at any moment go to the moon may well get demoralized if gold slumps for a long period of time. It might fail to fit into the hyperinflationary story. More realistic expectations are required to weather the downturns that should come in this gold bull.

Yes, kind of agree with the view that trying to guess the short term moves is essentially gambling... though I would add entertaining to watch. I also enjoy following your long term charts and trends which are more firmly based on fundamentals. I am thinking of trying my hand in the next few months at a not so technical analysis of the medium term and try to predict when might be good times to buy and sell with an eye to trading a little. I see the medium term predictions as speculative in contrast to the outright gambling nature of the short term predictions. I am thinking a thread on this site would be helpful in keeping a record of my ramblings and speculations on this trade which would I hope also invite comments from readers.

I am coming around to TA these days but I think most of it is done with too short a time frame. If you look too closely at the short term price of gold it can get disorientating. On the other hand, if you stand back and look at the medium term you can get a better perspective on it. You can then also combine fundamentals and market psychology here to help with your technical analysis. But then I guess that makes me undisciplined and a non-purist from a technical perspective. I think we are on the downturn and could be looking at another cup pattern... possibly wider and deeper. If the rally in the market holds the downturn should be confirmed.

Bring it on. I will only buy at around 850. Only with half my funds mind... it could well go below the 200MDA in the next few weeks. I also value US dollars these days. Only these days mind, later want to be all in gold.

It is only money after all and then only a means to an end and I guess enjoying certain conditions in life such as peace of mind and property is the measure of real wealth. Good luck with the house buying!