romans holiday

Surely you jest... you must have kept some of it.... just a little?? Oh, and good luck with the house hunting. Edit: opps just re-read your post. My exit plan is the same, to buy some property but not just yet. I share your concerns about the volatility that we may see so plan to trade this and increase my bullion with my bullion.

Money moving from gold into the Dow rally. Suckers.

Volatility fatigue?

Won't do any gathering until it hits 200MDA.

Anything is possible and it is all about timing. Though short term trading is essentially gambling, it makes perfect sense to trade in the medium term with a portion of your bullion. This is the difference between gambling and speculation. Over and above a smaller speculative trading position, your bullion position would be considered a long term investment. Even so, an exit strategy is needed at some time in order to enjoy certain positions in life such as owning free-hold and productive property. I mean who wants to be holding onto money forever, a mere means to an end instead of enjoying the ends in life? Perhaps only the true gold bug. When the gold bull deems the time is right to swap gold for assets I doubt very much he will sell all of it. A small portion may be kept not because the price will as you suggest go to the moon [if it did go to the moon you would have to ask if that price represented anything real] but because as a solid currency it will remain an excellent store of value. As for being unemotional, I agree. The qualities required of an investor [as found in the foreword of Reminiscences ] are patience, self-discipline and a mind-set of detachment.

I am surprised someone of Petrovs calibre does not account for the stability of gold's price in the depresssion due to the dollar being on the gold standard. The dollar is now not on the gold standard and given similiar conditions the price of gold will go up as demand increases. He also thinks the Fed can actually successfully fight a deflation. We know they are not omniscient [more a ship of fools really] nor are they omnipotent.

No they are not. They are about reasonable expectations as opposed to fantasies.

When I said the ratios would be met I was referring to the commonly accepted and often bandied about ratios; 100-1 for houses and 1:1 for the Dow. These are much more significant than "prices". Given that I believe these ratios will be realised along biflationary lines with the Dow and houses continuing to come down and gold rising then obviously I do not see gold going to $10,000 but more likely $2000 - $3000. Look for gold to double from here and the Dow to half.

In a hyper-inflation all prices go through the stratosphere. In a hyper-deflation, once the reserve currency finally devalues say by half [not hyper-inflates] the price of all real assets would double not go to the moon [we should continue to see "shop inflation" in consumables with currencies which are already depreciating]. A currency may survive a hyper-deflation [it just deflates/depreciates] whereas it is obviously destroyed in a hyper-inflation. From another perspective, which focuses on prices, a hyper-deflation is also a biflationary scene. Expect here high inflation not hyper-inflation when it comes to consumable goods. Real assets will inflate while paper assets continue to deflate. The Dow will continue to fall to meet gold and so will houses even when the dollar finally devalues. I can not see nominal prices going up but continuing to decline. Real prices, as priced in say gold, would fall radically. Nominal prices will come down slower due to being priced in a depreciating currency. A hyper-deflation would also entail a massive decline in our standard of living as everyday necessities become more expensive.

The ultradeflationist view could also be the one where most currencies will lose their efficacy; being themselves financial instruments these days they will also deflate or depreciate. I have termed this position hyper-deflation. Incredible though it may seem, this view suggests that sound money will be scarce in the future and assets comparatively cheap compared to today. Gold and silver being the strongest symbols of money will continue to strengthen and likely become the primary currencies once the US dollar eventually devalues. The conventional deflationist does not envisage a devaluation of the dollar and possibly other major currencies. Though units of currency may appear to be multiplying, in reality money is being destroyed at a phenomenal rate. I think gold will go to around $1500 in present US dollar terms. Once the dollar devalues in a year or so it could well go to $3000 but this price only represents devalued dollars. The beauty of gold will be its ability to buy incredibly cheap assets.. in gold ounce terms.

All mathematical models should come with the following warning: "This model is not to be confused with reality."

imo the ratios will be met as firstly house prices and the Dow continue to fall and as secondly gold continues to rise due to demand for its monetary qualities. There was a thread on these ratios which was put together a few months ago. Looking for it now. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....t=0&start=0

Wouldn't be surprised to also see a few bankers tarred and feathered before this is all over. Doubt we will have any doldrums this year.... most probably very volatile. Hold onto your hat.

Open season on banks?

I wouldn't consider myself more learned... on the shoulders of giants and all that. The only advice I could give is it depends on how much gold you already have. If you do not have a decent portion of your worth in gold then you have to ask yourself whether you can afford not to buy now. If you already own a decent amount then perhaps you can afford to wait for a price which suits you.

It's interesting how on the other channel they have gone from deflationary concerns towards hyper-inflationary ones. Dare I say the opposite tendency is true on this site? A good contrarian indicator?

Yes, it would involve the qualitative depreciation of the dollar along the lines of what we have seen with other currencies and against certain other currencies. imo "quantitative easing" is irrelevant as long as deflationary forces remain entrenched.

No, because that was inflationary. What we are seeing now is deflationary [or diinflationary, or deleveraging, or macro deflation, or debt deflation if you do not like that word]. The dollar is strengthening due to what I have seen referred to as "financial protectionism"; the repatriation of capital to its base currency. If gold explodes from here it would involve the collapse of the dollar and I do not see that happening anytime soon. Do you? I do think though that eventually the terrible fundamentals of the dollar will catch up with it. For now it is market phenomenology that matters.

Should have?? According to who? Isn't the market is the true measure for the investor? Don't get me wrong... I think gold is going higher. But when it is that much higher I doubt we will be concerned with the price in dollars as the dollar would have capitulated to gold by then. For now, the two will continue to battle it out. I expect 200MDA to track sideways within a volatile range for the year unless of course we get a real black swan instead of all these crows which only serve to strengthen the dollar.

$12,006.67 per ounce of gold This is a meaningless price. If gold ever reached it, dollars would be toast and then why bother about dollar price.

Great chart FW. Yep, if I had pounds I wouldn't be sitting on them but would put them straight into gold. That is what I did with both the NZ dollars and the Korean won I had [which may both be giving Stirling a run for its money in the worst performing currency stakes]. As it is, the only significant price for those who want to trade the volatility a little is the US dollar one which is why I moved my trading funds into them at the start of the year. The US dollar is also significant for gold in another more macro way. As long as it stays strong, gold will be relatively contained within a volatile range. Once the dollar weakens it is game over.

Can't help with any TA as I lack the discipline and just read my own wishes into it. Why has gold gone down so much? Not sure but I think Mr Market is moody these days. One day he is all enthusiastic and the next day he packs a sad. I am more interested in the "phenomenology" of markets these days rather than technical analysis because this is one moody and nervous market. imo POG will remain volatile as long as the US dollar remains strong and competes for safe haven status. Ideal trading opportunity if you believe there, eventually, can only be one.

Notice the pattern repeats but only bigger. Imagine if that were to happen again and on an even larger scale. That would be one wild ride. As for chartology, a lot of the time I reckon we just read our own preconceptions into them.

cue music...which one of these... looks like the other... Last time we saw that pattern [same graph] look what happened.

US dollars is the only significant price for gold now. Before, I bought gold with Korean won and NZ dollars... gold has broken out against these now and almost any time would be a good time to buy in these currencies imo. I am now holding US dollars which gold has not yet broken out against.. they are competing for safe haven status. When buying in US dollars timing is most important. Could still get a bargain thanks to Mr Market.