drbubb

Ready to Roll maybe? ... With U prices picking up, & seeming to breaking out Uranium vs. URA and Comeco/ CCO.t ... update :

Top 9 Quoted banks viewed thru History (9 of Top 12) Security Bank and Unionbank are two "outliers" Top 3 PH banks ... fr. Aug.2008 : updated to may'20 MBT + Innovator banks ... fr. 2008 : 4 More Banks ... fr. 2008 : ==

Wow! This bank is also innovative, it is stock has done even better "invest heavily in information technology, digitalization, people and branches" P3 > P268 - that's almost 100X, actually 89x* (10x the UBP gain) *But the jump in 2014 could be suspicious (reverse split maybe?) Security Bank / SECB ... all data : Security Bank Focused on Digitalization After Posting Faster-than-Industry Loan, Deposit and Earnings Growth and Record Profits in 2017 April 24, 2018 24 April 2018, Makati, Philippines – During the annual stockholders’ meeting of Security Bank Corporation (PSE: SECB) on Tuesday, 24 April 2018, the following were elected to the Security Bank Board: incumbent directors Diana P. Aguilar, Philip T. Ang (independent), Anastasia Y. Dy, Frederick Y. Dy, Takayoshi Futae, Joseph R. Higdon (independent), James JK Hung (independent), Ramon R. Jimenez, Jr. (independent), Jikyeong Kang (independent), Napoleon L. Nazareno (independent), Takahiro Onishi, Alfonso L. Salcedo, Jr., Rafael F. Simpao, Jr. and Alberto S. Villarosa, and new director Cirilo P. Noel. During the organizational Board meeting, key appointments were for Frederick Y. Dy as Chairman Emeritus, Alberto S. Villarosa as Chairman, Anastasia Y. Dy as Vice Chairman, and Alfonso L. Salcedo, Jr. as President and Chief Executive Officer. In his report on 2017 operations, President and CEO Mr. Alfonso L. Salcedo, Jr. highlighted Security Bank’s 20% earnings growth that resulted in a record-high net income of Php 10.26 billion, versus industry’s 7% earnings growth. In the last five years, Security Bank’s net income grew by a compounded annual growth rate of 20% versus industry’s 3%. The Bank’s revenue growth in 2017 was 20% versus industry’s 11%. Net interest income growth was 22% versus industry’s 17%, while non-interest income growth was 15% versus industry’s 5% decrease. The Bank’s return on shareholders’ equity was 10.2% versus industry’s 9.96%. The Bank’s Core Equity Tier 1 and Total Capital Adequacy ratios of 15.5% and 17.7%, respectively, are among the highest in the industry and well above the minimum regulatory requirements. Total assets grew 9% to Php 757 billion. In the past five years, Security Bank’s total assets grew by a compounded annual growth rate of 21%, versus industry’s 11%. Also highlighted was Security Bank’s healthy loan portfolio growth of 28% versus industry’s 19%. The Bank’s loan growth was driven by corporate loans which increased 25%, middle market loans which grew 24%, and consumer loans which expanded 49%. In the past five years, Security Bank’s loan portfolio grew by a compounded annual growth rate of 22% versus industry’s 18%. The Bank’s three customer segments grew by compounded annual growth rates of 18% for corporate loans, 20% for middle market loans, and 63% for retail loans. Retail loans as a percent of total loans increased to 16% at year-end 2017 from 13% in 2016. Security Bank now has a full slate of consumer loan products consisting of home, auto, credit card, personal and small business loans. Asset quality remained healthy with net non-performing loan ratio at 0.02%, a decrease from 0.17% in 2016, and lower than industry’s 0.47%. NPL cover increased to 239%, versus industry’s 150%. Deposit growth was 19%, faster than industry’s 12%. In the last five years, Security Bank’s deposits grew by a compounded annual growth rate of 19% versus industry’s 12%. The Bank added 12 new branches in 2017, bringing its network to 302 branches. Its ATM network has grown from 622 to 713. === DIGITAL BANKING 2018: Overview & main challenges : https://www.finastra.com/sites/default/files/documents/2018/03/product-insight_digital-banking-overview-in-the-philippines.pdf

UnionBank is Most Innovative Bank of the Year 2018 ... https://www.pressreader.com/philippines/business-world/20180413/282406989932305 Apr 13, 2018 - UnionBank is Most Innovative Bank of the Year 2018 at Global ... (Innovation showed up in UBP's growing stock price too) UPB vs. BPI, BDO ... all-data : / 2 / Asiamoney proclaims UnionBank as BEST DIGITAL BANK – 2017 UnionBank has definitely made an indelible mark as an industry leader in digital banking when Asiamoney awarded UnionBank as “Best Digital Bank – Philippines” at the recently concluded Asiamoney Banking Awards 2017 held last September 26 at The Ritz-Carlton in Beijing, China. According to Euromoney.com, “It’s rare to find a lender that saw the potential in the digital world early – and got it right. Most countries boast at least one standout lender in this category; when it comes to the Philippines, that lender is UnionBank.” UnionBank has always been quick to embrace innovation. . . . For the past 10 years, the Bank has centralized most of its operations, including majority of its accounting processes. When he assumed his position as UnionBank President and COO in 2016, Edwin R. Bautista said: “We are highly digitized in each of the products like credit cards, the only thing that is not automated is the physical handling of cash but even that we want to move to deposit taking machines.” . . . UnionBank was the first to introduce the concept of using state-of-the-art face recognition technology instead of the usual passwords which are easily compromised. For this, the Bank has been granted the patent to “Selfie Banking” and made EON known as the first Selfie Banking in Asia. Chairman and CEO Justo A. Ortiz believes that in its 35 years of existence, the mission to “transform the bank for the digital economy” is the most revolutionary and gigantic step that the Bank has taken towards enabling its customers via digital transformation. The “Best Digital Bank” award is yet another affirmation that UnionBank is well on its way to fulfilling its vision of reshaping the Bank into a “technology company with banking utilities”, and likewise, maintaining leadership in “Smart Banking” particularly in areas of innovation, customer delight and value-for-money through the creative application of expertise and dedication.

The most innovative bank... possibly UnionBank /PH:UBP sets rights offer at P62.97/ sh... all : 5yr / Cl.: P78.90 -1.90 UBP has priced its planned P10 Billion stock rights issue (SRO). Rights: 1 new share, for every 6.6644 common shs held. (-% below close) In the first half of 2018, UnionBank reported total assets of P623 Billion - that's US$ 11.6 Bn at 53.5. Net income rose to P4.7Bn, from P4.4Bn last year

LOAN DEMAND strong. Record 5-yr US Debt raising by BPI BPI raises record $600M from maiden notes issuance (per Philippines Star) Ayala-led BPI raised $600 Million in the offshore debt market - highest ever - through unsecured 5 year fixed rate notes "to lengthen the maturity of the bank's borrowing". + Coupon was 4.25% (in US$), and would be listed on the Singapore stock market + The fund raising was part of the bank's $2 Billion medium term note program + At end March 2018, 167-year old BPI was the third largest bank, by assets. Assets were up 10.4% to P1.91T (= $35.7 Bn at 53.5) Capital was up 10.3% at P189.5 Bn (with a capital adequacy ratio of 13.55%). + The bank has raised P50billion from a rights issue to fund its growth + Earnings of BPI slipped 5.7% to P11.03 billion in the first half === Another sign of strong loan demand is rising rates 7-day term deposits hit a record high of 4.29Percent. And 14d deposits were also at a record of 4.39percent (both figures rounded upwards) The BSP hiked its benchmark rates twice, by 25 bp, on May 10 and again onJune 20th - and then by 50 bp on Aug.9th

Is the Age of Double-digit asset growth rates over for banks? (asks Business World: 8/28 on page 1) Over Php 15 Trillion of assets in banking system : ie 43 universal & com'l banks PH BANKS, Year: --- Q1 -- : --- Q2 -- : --- Q3 -- : --- Q4 --- : % chg. : 2013: 07.734T : 08.319T : 08.868T : 09,691 Bn : 2014: 09.811T : 10.031T : 10.180T : 10,889 Bn : + 12.4% 2015: 10.736T : 10.887T : 11,282T : 11,529 Bn : + 5.88% 2016: 11.933T : 12.300T : 12.558T : 13,343 Bn : + 15.7% 2017: 13.537T : 14.013T : 14.331T : 14,878 Bn : + 11.5% 2018: 15.022T : 15.394T : chg. : + 11.0% : + 9.86% : Top 12 Universal and commercial banks 1. BDO - : BDO Unibank (SMPH group) is #243 Globally) 2. MTB - : Metropolitan Bank and Trust / Metrobank (GPCAP group) 3. BPI - : Bank of the Philippine Islands (AC - Ayala group) 4. Govt- : Landbank of the Philippines / Landbank (PH govt owned) 5. PNB - : Philippine National Bank 6. SECB- : Security Bank Corp 7. CHIB- : China Banking Corp. 8. Govt- : Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP, secondary govt bank) 9. UBP - : Union Bank of the Philippines 10. RCB - : Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) 11. Priv- : United Coconut Planters Bankers (UCPB) 12. EW -- : East West Banking Corp (EastWest bank) > 43 U&C banks +55 savings banks, wiki: /List_of_banks_in_the_Philippines Q2's slower growth broke a string of nine straight quarters of double digit growth in assets. The banks were more profitable, even as growth in assets slowed. Money Lent was Php 8.41 Trillion (54.6% of Total assets) at mid-2018, and that was an increase of 18.2% more than the P 7.12 trillion one year earlier. In terms of profitability, the median return on equity improved to 6.38%, from 5.09% in the first quarter, and 4.70% in the prior year's second quarter. Fastest growing banks: + Robinsons Bank ------------- : +42.1% year-on-year + Land Bank of Philippines : +35.7% + Asia United Bank ------------ : +26.2% Metrobank displaced BPI as #2 in deposits === There is no evidence of slowing loan demand, with that 18% yoy rise, Maybe banks are selling down "other non-loan assets" to invest in high-risk rating loans. Some of those other assets may have a lower capital requirement, so banks may need to sell more of them to add loans. The jump in income is another sign of the shift towards Loans

PH Challenge: Crypto > Cash & near Cash; how? cost? "the vital last leg" in making Crypto a fully-viable currency I will be investigating the mechanisms of converting Crypto into Cash & "near cash" on this thread. This is a very important issue for anyone hold Crypto currencies, or receiving Crypto as a "remittance" Also, holding PHP in a wallet is not sufficient. The wallet owner will want to know he/she can spend the PHP, or convert them into spend-able currency. This may not be easy or cheap ==== *By near cash, I will including things like Cell phone LOAD, and maybe even Grab taxi rides

Canadian Marijuana index

TIME to Hunt for the Real Crimes (...of a real witch?) Bombshell Report: Communist China Hacked Hillary’s Illegal Private Email Server A Chinese-owned company penetrated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s private server, according to sources briefed on the matter. The company inserted code that forwarded copies of Clinton’s emails to the Chinese company in real time. The Intelligence Community Inspector General warned of the problem, but the FBI subsequently failed to act, Texas Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert said during a July hearing. A Chinese-owned company operating in the Washington, D.C., area hacked Hillary Clinton’s private server throughout her term as secretary of state and obtained nearly all her emails, two sources briefed on the matter told The Daily Caller News Foundation. The Chinese firm obtained Clinton’s emails in real time as she sent and received communications and documents through her personal server, according to the sources, who said the hacking was conducted as part of an intelligence operation. The Chinese wrote code that was embedded in the server, which was kept in Clinton’s residence in upstate New York. The code generated an instant “courtesy copy” for nearly all of her emails and forwarded them to the Chinese company, according to the sources. ===== LOCK HER UP, investigate her (Fully & fairly), then STRETCH HER NECK (if warranted by the evidence)

PROPERTY Stocks may be about to Break the (mild) Downturn Sym. / Developer === CHART LINKS:: ALI - / AyalaLand ..... All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d MEG / Megaworld .... All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d Popi / Prime Orient .. All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d CPG / Century Prop . All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d SMph/SM PrimeHld . All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d ALI ... 3yr chart : at P43.90 is trying to break above the down-channel. ALI +etc ... 12mos-chart (below) 5-yrs : 2yrs : 6mos // 10-d : ALI : MEG : SMPH : CPG : POPI : HISTORICAL Stock Summary at 10/13/16: -- shows rising earmings trend in ALI, etc. ALI - / Ayalaland - : Yr-H: $42.15 : 10/13 : $36.40 : Off H: -13.65% :: P/E: 28.56 : Earns: P1.27 MEG / Megaworld: Yr-H: $05.51 : 10/13 : $04.11 : Off H: -25.41% :: P/E: 12.48 : Earns: P0.33 Popi / PrimeOrion: Yr-H: $02.28 : 10/13 : $01.92 : Off H: -15.79% :: P/E: - n/a - : Earns: P -nil - CPG / Cent.PrpGr: Yr-H: $0.780 : 10/13 : $0.570 : Off H: -26.93% :: P/E: 6.364 : Earns: P0.090 Stock Summary at 07/20/17: ALI - / Ayalaland - : Yr-H: P42.40 : 07/19 : P41.70 : Off H: -01.65% :: P/E: 28.18 : Earns: P1.48 Smph/ SMPrimeH: Yr-H: P35.20 : 07/19 : P34.50 : Off H: -01.99% :: P/E: 40.59 : Earns: P0.85 MEG / Megaworld: Yr-H: P05.51 : 07/19 : P04.75 : Off H: -13.80% :: P/E: 13.12 : Earns: P0.36 Popi / PrimeOrion: Yr-H: P02.45 : 07/19 : P02.21 : Off H: -09.80% :: P/E: - n/a - : Earns: P -nil - CPG / Cent.PrpGr : Yr-H: P0.780 : 07/19 : P0.650 : Off H: -16.67% :: P/E: 10.66 : Earns: P0.061 Stock Summary at 08/24/18: ALI - / Ayalaland - : Yr-H: P47.50 : 08/24 : P43.90 : Off H: -07.58% :: P/E: 22.86 : Earns: P1.92 Smph/ SMPrimeH: Yr-H: P39.70 : 08/24 : P38.50 : Off H: -03.02% :: P/E: 37.60 : Earns: P1.02 MEG / Megaworld: Yr-H: P04.68 : 08/24 : P05.85 : Off H: -20.00% :: P/E: 11.06 : Earns: P0.42 Popi / PrimeOrion: Yr-H: P02.87 : 08/24 : P04.10 : Off H: -30.00% :: P/E: - n/a - : Earns: P -nil - CPG / Cent.PrpGr : Yr-H: P0.450 : 08/24 : P0.560 : Off H: -19.64% :: P/E: 08.49 : Earns: P0.053

Hop on Circuit Makati’s Newest Shuttle Service Circuit Makati offers a more convenient way of discovering the city’s newest entertainment district via its free shuttle service. Covered in graphic novel-like designs, the coasters will be hard to miss as it travels along its set route. The shuttle takes riders to Circuit Makati from several pick-up points within the Ayala Center and Makati CBD. The service runs Mondays to Fridays from 4 to 8 pm – its route starts at the main station, which is at the Hotel Intercon open car park (near the Ayala MRT station). Going to Circuit Makati, the shuttle also fetches passengers from the loading areas near Ayala Triangle Gardens, Smart Tower, Zuellig Loop, Circuit Makati’s transport terminal, and Circuit Lane. Conversely, the shuttle drops off passengers at Glorietta and the BPI Head Office, before heading back to the main station. “This is one of the ways we are linking passengers to new developments in the city, and it is part of our objective to provide convenience to those who want to explore the different offerings of Circuit Makati,” said Manny Blas, Ayala Land Inc. Vice President and Project Development Head for Makati. Circuit Makati, one of the six nodes included in the 125-billion over-all plan for the city’s revitalization, showcases some of the most exciting entertainment venues, such as Globe Circuit Events Ground –home to various music festivals all year round—and several outdoor facilities such as the Gatorade Chelsea Blue Pitch, the Mountain Dew Skate Park, and City Kart Racing. Recently, the two-storey Circuit Lane opened featuring initial offerings such as dining outlets like Torch, Backyard, and Steveston Pizza; as well as a Power Mac Center and Nike store. Slated to open this October are Miracle Art, Palm Corned Beef Corner, and Seafood Island. The retail strip is likewise home to Power Mac Center Spotlight – a 300-seater black box theater that is currently showing #NoFilter 2.0 by the Sandbox Collective; and will be showcasing Maria Isabella, by Bit by Bit Productions in December. The free shuttle ride aims to provide the public easier access to the trendiest shows and the hippest entertainment places that Circuit Makati has to offer. For more information, visit www.makeitmakati.com/circuit-makati to know more. > https://makeitmakati.com/news/hop-on-circuit-makatis-newest-shuttle-service/

MAKATI SETS TRAFFIC RULES IN NEW ‘GROWTH CENTER’ The Makati City government has implemented a one-way traffic scheme in the South Avenue-Zapote Loop in line with its thrust to create a growth center in the northern part of the city. Mayor Abby Binay directed the city’s Public Safety Department (PSD) to strictly enforce City Ordinance No. 2017-026 which include the South Avenue-Zapote One Way Loop. Under the scheme, South Avenue is designated as a one-way street for northbound traffic while Zapote Street is one-way for southbound traffic. The city government also declared as no-parking zones the entire stretch of South Avenue, Ayala Avenue Extension, Hippodromo Street, A.P. Reyes Street, Zapote Street and Kamagong Street. The city ordinance states that no vehicle is allowed to park on both sides of a road declared as one-way. The absence of “No Parking” signs does not mean parking is allowed. > https://makeitmakati.com/news/makati-sets-traffic-rules-in-new-growth-center/

BANKING SYSTEM 'SOUND'; resources grow 10.2% in H1 ( Manila Bulletin headline, 8/26/2018 ) The Banking sector reported P 16.065 Trillion combined total resources (/53.46 = US$ 301Bn) as of the end of June, up 10.2% yoy. + Big bank resources, increased by 10.79% to P14.57 T (= US$ 272 Bn.) vs. P13.15 T + Thrift bank resources were up 4.56% to P 1.237 T (= US$23 Bn.) + Non-bank financial assets were P 3.52 T (=US$66 Bn), and Rural banks had P 259 Bn (=US$4.8 Bn.) at 3/31/2018, where reporting lags As of the end of June, the bank industry's asset quality "remains satisfactory," said BSP governor Nestor Espenilla, and there was: "A continuing build-up in capitalization," with capitalization ratios as follows: Big Banks Ratio, Solo : 14.48% x P14.57 T (US$272.5 Bn) = $39.5 Bn Capital in Big Banks, top 3 have $15.3 Bn Consolidated basis---- : 15.07%

GTCap, largest owner of Metrobank (MBT) shares, looks deeply undervalued GTCap vs. MBT, MPI , psei ... 10yr : fr. 4/2015 +psei: 3yr : 1yr / Last: 870.0, 176.3, 5.02 VALUATIONS: stock Mkt-Caps & estimated Symbol : Company--- : Shares- : Price : MktCap : GTshare: Value--- : GTCap -: GT Capital- : 199.3 M : 870.0 : 173 Bn : 100.0% : P 173.3B : 34.1% Value? Public MBT -- : Metrobank-- : 3.98 Bn : 65.00 : 259 Bn : 36.36% : P 094.2B : MPI -- : MetroPacific : 31.5 Bn : P5.02 : 158 Bn : 15.55% : P 024.6B : ====== : Public Co's-: ============: 279.7B : ====== : P 114.8B : Toyota Motors--------- : Not available-- : 000.0B : 51.0 % Toyota Fin'l Svcs.----- : Not available-- : 000.0B : 40.0 % Toyota Manila Bay--- : Not available-- : 000.0B : 58.1 % Toyota Subic------------ : Not available-- : 000.0B : 55.0 % ===: Auto-Sub-Total- : Not available-- : 162.7B : >>>>>> : 32% of Value ("plug" estimate) ====== : Non-Auto--- : Federal Land------------ : Not available-- : 50.8B : 100. % : 10% of Value " " Pro+Friends------------- : Not available-- : 000.0B : 51.0 % AXA Insurance--------- : Not available-- : 015.0B : 25.3 % : 3% of Value " " Sumisho------------------- : Not available-- : 000.0B : 20.0 %% ===========: Total- : Not available-- : 508.0B : ====> : 279.7B/ 55%: Estimated based on Income Figures GTcap Looks CHEAP at under 900p (& just 493% of MTB's valuation, should be 7x) / & at near 11% of PSEI GTcap could be an interesting buy, backed up by its valuable shareholding in MTB, and all the Private Co's. Imagine getting the Auto companies, Federal Land, and AXA for free (!!) GTCap's interests in MTB & MPI alone are worth 161% of the MktCap of GTCap. HISTORICAL Estimates-- : %index PSEI : <------ Public Shares------>: Value: Full : vvv : TMP : FDL: AXA: Pri . : Timing----: GTcap, 199.3- : Pct., Index : MTB--,1.45B : MPI--, 4.9B : 55%: 100%: Pct.- : 32% : 10%: 3% : 45% : 08/24/18: 870.0, 173.3B : 11.2% 7766 : 176.3, 256B : P5.02, 25B : 281 : 510B, 34.0%: 163 : 51. : 15. : 229 : 12/29/17: 1292., 257.5B : 15.1% 8558 : 171.0, 248B : P6.85, 34B : 282 : 513B, 50.2%: 164 : 51. : 15. : 231 : 12/29/16: 1270., 253.1B : 18.6% 6841 : 155.6, 226B : P6.66, 33B : 259 : 471B, 53.7%: 151 : 47. : 14. : 212 : 12/29/15: 1320., 263.1B : 19.0% 6952 : 124.0, 180B : P5.20, 25B : 205 : 373B, 70.5%: 119 : 37. : 11. : 168 : 12/29/14: 1032., 205.7B : 14.3% 7231 : 127.5, 185B : P4.60, 23B : 208 : 12/29/13: 772.?, 000.0B : 00.0% 5890 : 116.0, 168B : P4.32, 21B : 189 : ======= GTcap - update, since : 1/2012, w/psei : 1/2014, w/psei : 1/2015 ... : Last: P870 is 11.2% of PSEI of 7,766 GTcap : 1/2012, w/psei , +AC : before split: 2012-14 :

COMEY's Cover-up of Clinton Crimes https://therightscoop.com/turns-out-comey-lied-about-the-emails-on-anthony-weiners-laptop/ It turns out that Comey lied in 2016 about a full review of all the emails on Anthony Weiner’s laptop as he finally closed the Hillary email scandal for good. Shocking, I know. Real Clear Investigations report: Here’s what really happened: Only 3,077 out of 694,000? That’s less than half a percent, and it was apparently a treasure trove of confidential information. Good grief. Of course we know what really happened. Hillary’s people put massive pressure on Comey and his Hillary henchmen to kill the investigation before the election. So they did. And of course, these same FBI agents were very busy with trying to defeat Trump so that had something to do with it too.

Another map

Top three PH Banks, Statistical Profile ============= : - BDO - : - MBT - : - BPI - : Total - : US$ at 53.5 Price End'17: P164.00 : P 85.17 : P108.10 : Share Price- : P127.10 : P 65.13 : P 99.55 : YearTo Date : - 22.5% : - 23.5% : - 7.91% : Shares O/S- : 4.37 Bn : 3.98 Bn : 4.50 Bn : MktCpPhp,B : P 555 B : P 259 B : P 448 B : P1706 B : $ 31.9 Bn : BookVal.Eqty P 303 B : P 278 B : P 240 B : P 821. B : $ 15.3 Bn : Mkt to Book : 183.2 % : 93.23 % : 186.7 % : Assets, mid-'18 : P2,877B : P2,173B : P1,875B : 6,925B : $129Bn, or 47.5%* Loans, mid-'18- : P1,900B : P1,324B : P1,220B : 4,444B : $83.1Bn Growth, 2017 : + 19 % - : + 18 % - : + 16 % - : Net Int Margin : 3.8 % : : 3.5 % : : 3.0 % :: Income--------------: P 13.1B : P 11.0B : P 11.0B : First Half 2018 Chg.vs 2018------ : -- 1 % - : + 16 % : -- 6 % - : Group Owned--- :: 38.2%+ : : 36.4% : : 48.2% : Sy family also owns BDO Pfd. *47.5% of BigBanks assets/resources of 14.57 T/ $272Bn, see 8/26 post below Metrobank's recent Investor Presentation, had some useful comparisons of the Top banks PH is still under-banked. Less than Indonesia, Vietnam, and even Laos A strong first half for Metrobank, relatively speaking PH Bank stocks trade at a nice premium to Book Valuations > source : 1H-2018 MTB Investor presentation

BANKS: What is the strongest bank in PH? I used to say, "the strongest bank" must be BPI, Bank of the Philippine Islands, because it is large, and about 50% owned by Ayala. Big 3: Now I think it may be more complicated, and three big banks are all clustered together at the top, in terms of Size & reputation. Each of these three is affiliated with a big property developer, and between them, they hold almost HALF of the P14.5 Trillion of assets (at mid-2018) held by all the so-called Biog Banks within the PH banking sector. This is a high concentration, and may help to explain the relative lack of innovation and competitive pressure in PH. Will we see more competition in the future? I think that is likely. Top 3 Banks : YTD: +1: 10d/ 5.26.20: BD0-85.90 : MBT:-33.20 : BPI-63.00 : SECB-77.10 / M/D-r: 38.6%, M/S-r: 43.1% PHL-BigBanks: Since 2010: 2015: '18: '19: YTD / BD0-89.60 : MBT:-34.00 : BPI-62.30 / Mbt/bDo-ratio: 37.9% MTB versus Two "successful innovators": UBP & SECB ... update : fr.8/2016: (to may'20) Other Top 12 banks ... RCB +etc- Aug'16: YE-2019=: - BDO- : - MBT- : - BPI- : -SECB : - UPB- : Top3- : - PHL : Deposits- : 2,485B : 1,714B : 1,728B: 499.6B: 484.3B: 5,927B: 13.1Tr : MktShare: (19.0%) (13.1%) (13.2%): (3.81%) (3.69%) (45.2%) (100%) Equity — : 368.9B : 309.6B : 269.6B: 118.3B: 97.50B: 948.1B: Dep.Lev. : (r6.74x) (r5.54x) (r6.41x) (r4.22x) (r4.97x) (r6.25x) CapAd.R : 12.6 % : 17.5 % : 15.2 % : - N/A - : - N/A - : 14.1 % : Net Inter : 119.9B : 77.00B : 65.95B : 26.84B : 22.34B : LoanAdv.: 2,485B : 1,831B : 1,728B : P512.B : 541.0B : NetintMar: 4.82 % : 4.21 % : 3.82 % : 5.21 % : 4.13 % : 0.00 %: Book.Val.: P32.62 : P68.83 : P59.81 : P157.0 : P80.07 : YE-2019-: 158.00 : P66.30 : P87.90 : P180.3 : P57.70 : % BookV. : 484.% : 96.3% : 147.0% : 114.8% : 72.1% : Total Inc. : 221.2B : P28.1B : P130.B : P10.1B: P14.0B : Cost/Inc. : 73.2% : 54.6% : 70.4% : 75.8% : 72.5% : Earns/sh. : P10.01: P 6.24 : P 6.39 : P13.40 : P11.52 : Ret.on BV : 30.7% : 9.07% : 10.7% : 8.54% : 14.4% : Inv.Gr.-M. : XXXX : Baa2 : YE-2015=: - BDO- : - MBT- : - BPI- : - Top3- : - PHL : Pct.: M/D-r: Deposits- : 1,679B : 1,258B : 1,123B : 4,060B : 9.74Tr : MktShare : (17.2%) (12.9%) (11.5%): (41.7%) (100%) Equity — : 199.0B : 193.8B : 150.3B : 543.1B : Dep.Lev. : (r8.44) : (r6.49) : (r7.47) : (r7.48) : Book.Val. : P17.51 : P60.93 : P38.25 : YE-2015-: 100.33 : P68.11 : P81.54 : % BookV. : 573.% : 111.8% : 213.% : Earns/sh. : P 6.74 : P 5.70 : P 4.64 : Ret.on BV : 38.5% : 9.35% : 12.1% : ======= The Top three banks are also at the Top in terms of Credit Ratings Long Term Default ratings: BBB- : BPI, BDO, and Metrobank BB + : China bank, PNB, and RCBC (" The usual rule is that a bank located within a country will not get a higher rating than the country itself. The state-owned banks, Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP), and Land Bank of the Philippines (Landbank), also got the 'positive' rating, mirroring the rating they gave to the country ) > Related : Are PH banks safe? (Top rating is BBB- Home Loans - A Guide for the perplexed

Makati mayor Abby Binay says Makati subway may breakground Map: source Target: by year-end, once a US$3.7Bn Swiss challenge is completed + Originated as a PPP proposal from an international consortium + IRC Properties, the consortium, was given Originating proponent Status + Bids to be submitted by end Sept.2018, and IRC may win by matching best 10 kilometer Urban Rail system will connect: + key points in Makati, along Ayala Ave., Makati City Hall, Poblocion Heritage site, . Univ.of Makati, Ospital ng Makati, & other new business districts + will also connect to MRT, Pasig River ferry, and new Mega-Manila subway + Expected to serve 700,000 passengers a day, along 10 stations + Air conditioned cars and stations (per Makati Bulletin, pg 13, Fri.Aug,24) My own Back of envelope calculations: $3.7B x 10%= US$370M/ 365 = $1M = P53M day capital costs / 700k= P76 for cap costs only (operating costs also need to be covered) So journeys likely to cost p100 or more (that's my guess) To keep costs down, they will have to develop property at stations (per HK) Map2: source You can probably make some money, if you know the EXACT locations of future stations. This should be good for Rockwell and Burgos, as well as "upper BGC" since these areas are not now well connected

Rockwell's New "expanded" Bridge A new enhanced bridge at Estrella-Pantaleon could help greatly connectivity 2 Contemplating the View in the area

CAUTION - during the possible "last rally" ? What should the worried property investor do now?? Any suggestions?? IF you are going to buy, then Buy Carefully: + Secondhand, cheaper properties + With better prospective yields, like 8-10%+ Gross yield The Good news is the recent Downtrend in PH property stocks was broken, as USD Libor eased somewhat Reverse Libor (DLBR) vs PH Property stocks ... update : This trend change, suggests a possible new high - or retest of highs - in these stocks, and that the bull market in PH property is still alive

The Philippines will Rank 19th on the World's Most Powerful Economies by 2050

METRO Manila Property prices Price / Sqm: AREA------- : Q1-2013 : Q1-2018 : Chg p.a. BGC/theFort: 112.8 k : 171.6 k : + 9 % Makati CBD: 123.0 k : 235.6 k : +14 % Ortigas Ctr: 99.6 k : 128.4 k : + 5 % Bay Area----- : 111.3 k : 162.3 k : + 8 % Average---- : 113.1 k : 161.7 k : + 7 % > GTCap Presentation for 1H-2018 : https://www.gtcapital.com.ph/storage/uploads/quarterly-reports/1H 2018 GT Capital Investor Presentation v2 For Printing.pdf

SAFE So far... The charts are up, and the stocks seem to be backing away from the possible downdraft. PSEI : 7,804.0 : +171.77 : + 2.25% (stocks) Smph : P 38.50 : + 1.40 : + 3.77% ALI -- : P 44.30 : + 1.20 : + 2.78% MEG- : P 4.94 : + 0.05 : + 1.02% BPI -- : P 95.80 : + 4.70 : + 5.16% !! I think these stocks may be the best bellwether stocks for the PH property market. I included one bank, BPI, because they have a big property exposure thru financing Ayalaland properties. BDO … and maybe Metrobank might work also. I think I need at least one bank as a bellwether, Do you think one of the might be better than BPI as an "early warning"