drbubb

UK Peak versus possible PH Property Peak? In reaction to a post on my website about the UK property market: First time since 1990 I've heard an agent utter the words 'the market is falling'. That's an important marker. They probably would not say that unless there was a lot of evidence The main property bellwether, BDEV, peaked over 9 months ago That's nicely within the window of "Developer stocks peak 6-12 months before the actual market" BDEV / Barratt Dev'l ... update : = Compare : PH:ALI, Ayalaland

UK Property: First time since 1990 I've heard an agent utter the words 'the market is falling'. That's an important marker. They probably would not say that unless there was a lot of evidence The main property bellwether, BDEV, peaked over 9 months ago That's nicely within the window of "Developer stocks peak 6-12 months before the actual market" BDEV / Barratt Dev'l ... update : =

Is SOXX beginning to Warn of A Downturn? SOXX vs IWM & SPY ... fr. mid-Aug.2013 : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d /Last: $179.56 /SPY-$285.67 = r-62.9%, IWM: 168.82 The Ratio (to / SPY) has started down already - but could stall at yesterday's close

NEGATIVITY (& failure) get built-in by Negative scanning (looking for victims & oppressors) There May Be a Scientific Reason Why SJWs Are So Whiny It seems like all anyone ever does these days is complain. “Men are toxic!” “I got body shamed!” “We had consensual sex but he was bad in bed and I feel dirty for sleeping with someone I just met so it was assault!” On and on and on. Oh wait, sorry, did I say all anyone does these days is complain? I meant, social justice warriors. All SJWs do these days is complain. It’s like living with a three-year-old. Actually, no, scratch that. I actually do live with a three-year-old and he’s much more enjoyable to talk to. It turns out there may be an actual scientific explanation for why SJWs just can’t deal. It’s called “neuroplasticity.” Neuroplasticity is the word scientists use to describe the fact that the brain is malleable. Until fairly recently, scientists believed that the adult brain was immutable. But this isn’t true at all. Research in the past ten years or so has proven that our thoughts can literally reshape our brains. Norman Doidge, a psychiatrist and author of The Brain That Changes Itself, says that the brain can “rewire” itself to “cure previously incurable obsessions and trauma.” So, what does this have to do with SJWs? Well, apparently complaining is one of the things that rewires your brain — for the worse. Dr. Rick Hanson, a neuroscientist who authored the book Buddha’s Brain, explains that “negative stimuli produce more neural activity than do equally intensive positive ones. They are also perceived more easily and quickly.” This is sometimes called “negativity bias,” meaning that our brains give more weight to negative things than positive ones. The more you complain, the more you want to complain, and believe there’s something worth complaining about. This type of fixation on things we perceive as negative is called “rumination.” Margaret Wehrenberg, a licensed psychologist and author of The 10 Best-Ever Depression Management Techniques, explains that rumination is “repetitively going over a thought or a problem without completion.” She says that the brain creates “neural networks” to help us remember things. When we begin to fixate on something negative, the brain lights up what Wehrenberg calls the “‘woe is me’ network” and we begin to wallow in negativity. “Brain chemistry makes it hard to switch to another perspective to find the way out of problems, so rumination intensifies. Both anxiety and depression are then reinforced,” says Wehrenberg. > https://pjmedia.com/trending/there-may-be-a-scientific-reason-why-sjws-are-so-whiny/

(From today's Viber chat): + THE RECENT RALLY may be STALLING... (see charts above) - But slide is NOT yet Comfirmed + Why is this important? Often property stocks (like ALI) may give a 6mo-12mo warning of a Top in Property prices. I have seen this occur in many markets... It is looking like USA in 2006, and UK one year later in 2007. Similar set-up gave a false signal in HK Short term Range: BPI-etc / MEG, SMPH, ALI & PSEI ... 10d : + Right now... I am wondering if BPI and the banks stocks will lead the PH stock market lower. That's what the charts seem to be hinting + On the property side, ALI , and especially SMPH seem to be the main ones to watch. If they both start sliding from here, then maybe it will be a big warning that PH property is peaking. Do you think this is possible??

PSEI Index : "I think a target of about 7,800 looks likely " - written July 26th Near 7,000 A pretty decent call so far ! PSEI / PH Stock Exchange Index ... 12mos : fr.8.1.2017: w/ALI : PSEI and ALI / AyalaLand Weakness in BPI are signaling some trouble (probably) for the other stocks too. > see: BPI-10d

Stockhouse : GCM Valuation Comments CALL SLIDES: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4199392-gran-colombia-gold-corp-2018-q2-results-earnings-call-slides# New Valuation..... 48 million shares outstanding now... = appr. 80 million USD marketcap you get.. -25 million Usd Cash (+cash in trust/Gold trust appr, 7 million USD) -250 million USD (assets minus liabilities) -potential 20 million USD Cash from warrants -low cost production Segovia (170000 oz p.a. @ AISC near 900$ ) , potential higher prouiction from Marmato in the future (PFS in H1 2019) , growing resources at both mines .... >10 million oz gold - 15% of Sandspring (up to 20%) (>10 million oz of gold resource , property next segovia) , Zancudo .... -decreasing debt (2014 Notes will be paid back quarterly from the Gold-trust they installed) ...and all this for 80 million USD??? Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#Tgj6usqcMJkSEtq5.99 === 800d MA seems important here - Why? GCM.t / Gran Columbian Gold ... update-800d-ma : 610d / Last: C$ 2.13 GCM etc - vs. GDXJ & MNT.t ... update : GCM.t only : 10/12/2017: c$1.86 : c$17.06 : $34.65 : / 2 / RE:new valuation..... -cash balance including the cash in trust , gold-trust and accounts receivable = appr. 43 million USD at June30 -longterm debt down significantly to 93 million USD after repayment of 2018 debentures (quarterly repaiment) -mining interests (properties/plants) 415 million USD (with out Sandspring) price/book -ratio should be near 0.25 now ...crazy! ...i will sell half of my nevsun-shares (they done well during the current downturn because the Lundin-offer) and will buy more GCM ... much more potential upside here.... / 3 / CC transcript ... very interesting (exploration/Sandspring) half year ago insiders bought shares ... maybe its time doing it again .... yes, maybe a little buyback-program too but i think they need the money for exploration and studies at marmato .... possibly we will se some buybacks after segovia plant and mines are finished with upgrading.... finalize the tailing storage and filter presses and the most of investments there should be over.. 2019 Marmato PEA , maybe 2020 PFS+BFS ... we will see ...goal: 300,000 oz+ producer for many years .... i like this sentence at the CC: "At Marmato, told cash cost have historically been higher than Segovia due to the lower mine grades and the fact that we have not yet put in the effort to optimize the production cost as we have at Segovia. This will come with the underground expansion project we are currently working on with the help of JDS." Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#4SduyYTkpdmBUI6W.99 / 4 / i have been buying that garbage. gcm is still making a good profit at $1170 gold when aisc is $900. aisc is inflated because they are spending a lot on modernizing their mines. When that is done there is room for aisc to drop. summer doldrums are almost over now. traders were putting on record shorts while people were on vacation. when they come back in sept. they will be looking for cheap buying opportunities. indian festivals coming. (HandyCap responds): "Sorry. Guess I didn't get my point across properly. My point is that people are throwing in the towel with the view that all gold stocks are cra-p and that there is no point in holding any of them. The point of capitulation. Actually positive in my view. I have a lot in gold stocks with GCM the biggest. I have not sold and I am looking at adding again now. GLTAL" / 5 / Insiders own 28.77% of this company . Serafino Iacono owns nearly 10% by himself . He bought a lot of those shares at much higher prices on the open market . So what you are telling me is that these people bought expensive shares over the last two years then deliberately set out to $crew themseles out of a pile of money . Have I got that right . Take a look at the chart of Goldcorp . It is identical to Gran Colombia`s . I guess the senior management at Goldcorp also can`t stand to make money either . / 6 / GCM is caught in the AU downdraft. Plus, 2018 debenture holders are dumping their converted shares. I basically doubled my position in the past few days. This stock is too cheap and should rebound. A great opportunity to average down.

Prof Peterson ... on Next Revolution The Next Revolution with Steve Hilton 8/19/18 More of JDP's insight & wisdom. Much of it, we have heard before

"So manila bay, not just for gamblers or gaming companies, and not just for government offices, but also for commercial and office spaces as well"... That 's what the lady concluded. - from above Colliers has been trying to get developers to build higher end units there. So far the focus has been pretty narrow. It is NOT where I want to live, but maybe they will broaden the appeal over time

While the UK suffers, The Philippines booms ! (so far) New Data in from Colliers CONVERSATIONS with Property Agents (in the Philippines)

How will this Fairy Tale end? Conversation with a Property Agent > Excerpt from a New thread:CONVERSATIONS with Property Agents " I am always amazed by people here investing in real estates with the glossy brochure of the developer & developer’s agent fairy tale as only reference." - AlexHK, on previous page I have a new habit. Covering numbers with my hand, when someone shows me crazy numbers. (see Conversation, below.) Occasionally, I still allow myself to be drawn into a showroom to have a chat with one of the young agents who passes out brochures. This is partly to keep abreast of prices, partly to see if anything is new in the showroom, and partly to see if there might actually be something worth buying. Once you have had a look around the showroom, the agent(s) will typically run a spreadsheet, showing the price of the unit, and the monthly payments It might look something like this: In summary, the developer in this case is selling a 26.04 sqm unit for Total price of P 7.22 million. That's P 277.3k per sqm. This price is 41% above the Makati Prime price index for Q2.2018 of 195,950. When I see this sort of (expensive) product on offer, I might have a conversation along the following lines: Me: That's pretty expensive, it is well over the prices I am seeing for average Makati Properties now* PA: (Property Agent) That's because it will be completed in 202?, and prices will be a lot higher then. Me: How do you know that? PA: Prices always go up. They have risen every year since I have been in the business. They should rise 10-15 p.a. Me: (with a chuckle.) Maybe you are too young. Do you know what happened in 2000-2004? PA: No. But even if they go down, they will go up again, since costs are rising. BTW, you pay only 15% over the next 4 years, that is a long time. Prices can drop and go back up again. Shall I explain the payments?. The payments are really Low, only about P22,500 a month. That's just US500. Most people can afford that. And there's no interest for you to pay. Every payment reduces your balance due. Me: (chuckling) You want me to pay interest before you even hand the unit over? That's crazy. No one is going to pay interest on a property where the developer is still building the property. PA: Our developer pays interest on the bank loans he takes to build the property. Me: Sure, but you price the financing cost into the Total Price you charge for the property, right? PA: We do, sir. But this payment is really, really Low. Only 15% paid over 47 months. And you can make money on the whole property, including the 85% you have not paid for. Me: (Here's my new tactic - I put my hand over the spreadsheet and say): The Agents all want to talk about payment structures. But that is not what I want to talk about. BTW, I might pay cash, if the cash discount is big enough. (The agent registers surprise since he hears this rarely; my hand might still beover the paper.) He is my real concern: What will the rent be in 202?, when I get the Key? That's what I want to know. What is MY return going to be over all the years I own the property. PA: (Shocked, since no one ever asked this question of him before.) The rent should be higher than today, sir. Me: Do you know what yields are today? (agent shakes his head.) About 5 -6% Gross Yield, if you are lucky. PA: But rents will rise, sir. They rise every year. Me: No, they don't. They fell in 2000-2004, and they fell again for luxury flats over the past two years. PA: Rents are being pushed higher by all the chinese tenants looking for property Me: Maybe that's true right now. But we cannot be sure they will keep coming. And some areas of Manila have very big supply. For instance, Supply of completed flats in the Manila Bay area will double over about 3 years PA: You are the first one to tell me that. My clients say it is easy to get a tenant now, sir. Me: Let;s hope that continues. But here is the real problem: YIELDS are Down, they are only about 2/3rds what they were just a few years ago. And interest rates are starting to rise. My target is to get a Gross Yield of 8-10% pa. What are you projecting for this property? PA: I don't know, sir, but it should be easy to rent. It is a convenient location. Me: Can you run some numbers for me. (He/she will look confused, as if uncertain what yield is.) That's okay, I will do it. Let's use P1,000 psm. That might be reasonable now, with the chinese demand. That would be P26,000 per month. Are you okay with that? Let me use P25,000 per annum, since the numbers are easier to do in my head. (PA is visibly uneasy.) In a year of 12 months rent, you will get P300,000 per annum. On a P7.2 Million price that's only about 4.2% per annum. That is just half, or less than half my target return. PA: (disappointed) Rents will rise, sir, but you may not get that here. Me: Here's the thing, when I bought my other Condos 3-4 years ago, I ran numbers and it really looked like I might get those target returns. But market yields on new properties are only about half today what they were back then. The numbers just do not work for me at all now. PA: That's okay, sir. Most of my clients do not look at it that way. They but a property if they like it, and if they can afford it. Me: Okay. So, I will wish you good luck with the properties you have for sale. Thanks for your time. ===== * updated to Q2.2018 CONDO Prices - Q2.2018 ... (chart w/o Yield) P 195,950 psm : + 5.4% vs. Rents P810 psm + 0.6% vs. Gen'l Price Inflation + 1.1% Yr.- Qtr : CondoPsm +Chg: Rent, +Chg: Yield : Index, +Chg.%: 2017.Q4 : 174,706, +4.6% : 800, - 0.0% : 5.49% : 113.1, +0.9% : >Q1, Old : 180,400, +3.3% : 805, +0.6% : 5.35% : 115.5, +2.1% : 2018.Q1 : 185,825, +6.4% : 805, +0.6% : 5.20% : 115.5, +2.1% : 2018.Q2 : 195,950, +5.4% : 810, +0.6% : 4.96% : 116.8, +1.1% : The Colliers report changed the data for Q1, and so I changed my Condo price too, from 180,400, to 185,825 psm for Q1.2018. That is up 6.45% for the quarter, instead of 3.3% - roughly twice as much a rise. These big price rises are pushing yields down, since rents are hardly rising.

The Cresting Wave: "Housing Tipping Back to a Buyer's Market" ... Just Like 2008: FBI Investigating Multi-Billion-Dollar Mortgage Fraud Case By: alexmark Approximately 14 percent of all listings in June had undergone a price cut, that’s up from a recent low of 11.7 percent at the end of 2016, according to a new report from Zillow. Home price growth is slowing in nearly half of the 35 largest U.S. metropolitan markets. In San Diego, 20 percent of all listings had a price cut in June, up from 12 percent a year ago. ( a trend change maybe. but these numbers are not a big deal.)

Immortality: Breakthrough Reverses Aging

The Superbowl Contest on Yakul Street- who is Winning? In the Race between Rise and Air Residences to see which building is finished first, Air seems to be winning... slightly: + Air topped out first + The Rise's mall, Assembly, is scheduled to open in January, and turnovers may start within six months of that The final livery of the Rise is getting painted on. Yellow of the Tiara Hotel provides a nice contrast.

NEW (Cheaper) Areas sought, & Improved transport Needed for some MM areas Offshore gaming to expand outside Manila Offshore gaming firms are continuously expanding, looking for office buildings with large floor plates. But vacancy in the country’s capital remains tight, pushing these companies to look for space outside Manila. Colliers encourages new and expanding offshore gaming companies to look for space in viable sites outside of Manila such as Cebu, Pampanga, and Laguna. > source: April.2017: http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/04/19/Metro-Manila-subway-Mega-Manila-Subway-project-Duterte.html Improved connectivity in CBDs The national government has approved the implementation of the Metro Manila Subway Project. Interestingly, seven out of the 14 stations are in Quezon City with three stations (Mindanao Avenue-Quirino Highway, Tandang Sora, and North Avenue) targeted for completion by 2022. Aside from raising land values around these stations, Colliers sees the subway’s completion resulting in a more pronounced development of mixed-use communities and office space in the Northern Quezon City area. In our opinion, scouting for properties in the area of the seven Quezon City stations should be prioritized as these are likely to be completed by 2025. Other infrastructure projects that are worth looking into and should improve access to office towers within CBDs are the Metro Rail Transit (MRT)-7 and Skytrain monorail. The latter is a project developed by Infracorp and should benefit the Upper Bonifacio Township of Megaworld Colliers believes that the construction of public infrastructure by private developers should also result in the emergence of other sub-locations for office towers, such as Arca South and Paranaque Integrated Terminal Exchange. Both areas will likely add about 200,000 sq m (2.1 million sqft) of leasable space to Metro Manila’s stock. > https://f.tlcollect.com/fr2/418/40215/Colliers_Manila_Office_Q2_2018_FINAL.pdf

LITTLE CHINA is being Energized by Increasingly Chinese investment . . . https://tinyurl.com/LChina-pg2 And it is threatening to surround Little Tokyo. (check the hat. is there also one atop ExportBank Plaza?) The tall building (Exportbank Plaza) in the heart of the Techzone area bizarrely recapitulates an image from a 1986 cult film called, "Big Trouble in Liitle China" (see pg.1) In fact, this area seems to have become energized by mainland Chinese investors and businesses, and it has become popular as a place to live for those who work for China-related online Casinos. Whodathukit? (other than this website.) Has Colliers been READING this thread? Haha, maybe - here are some EXCERPTS from their Q2 Report "Colliers has observed that condominiums in the fringes of Makati have become very popular among Chinese offshore gaming employees. These residential towers are preferred by Chinese nationals due to their proximity to office buildings that house offshore gaming companies. The ground floor retail of the condominiums has also evolved now housing a mix of Chinese restaurants, convenience stores, and international coffee " How long before Colliers starts also calling the area "Little China" ? (these other comments also appeared): "Chinese investors are also drawn to the business hub due to its proximity to Manila International Airport and the presence of international schools" (comment was about BGC, but Little China in Makati has BETTER access to NAIA) "Colliers recommends that developers with significant ready for occupancy units, especiallin the fringes of established business hubs, to specifically target the Chinese employees of offshore gaming firms. Condominium projects in the Makati fringe are particularly popular among these employees." "Colliers Philippines has been receiving queries from firms based in Japan, Hong Kong and Mainland China planning to tie up with local developers.... local developers can improve their brand image by partnering with prominent foreign brands known for their precision and high architectural and engineering standards." ===== Little China area highrises from Amorsolo - this photo shows the ramp leading to the skyway (quick access to NAIA airport.) From Left to Right: Makati Square, Oriental Place, Exportbank Plaza Building (between the shorter pair of buildings, Oriental Gardens & Lilac Place), Paseo de Roces Towers. Red Residences will rise next to the PdR buildings. Federal Land has built most of the taller buildings in the area, and has branded them with a memorable pinkish/orange color. Makati Square was been repainted to pick up the same color. Looking down Chino Roces towards Techzone from next to The Beacon Towers. The area immediately next to Beacon has been called Little Tokyo, and I can see these two areas effectively merging. My sense is that something like 1/3 to 1/2 the tenants in Beacon may be Chinese, probably from mainland China, and there are several Chinese restaurants & shops on Beacon's ground floor. > Guide to Food attractions in the Little Tokyo area Landmarks around Little Tokyo Makati include the following: Makati Cinema Square, Mile Long, The Gallery, Louie's THX, WalterMart Pasong Tamo, Don Bosco Technical Institute, Amici, Andok's (bigger than usual outlet), Shell Herrera, Skyway Amorsolo Makati Exit, Marvin Plaza, Cityland Pasong Tamo, Wilcon Builders, St. John Bosco Parish Church. It is also near the Ayala Malls and SM Makati via the Pasay Road (Arnaiz Ave.) - Libertad jeepney route. > source of Map & Info: http://www.metromaniladirections.com/2010/04/how-to-get-to-little-tokyo-makati.html Little China is also merging into the WalterMart / Magallanes area > see thread:Chino Roces / WalterMart to Magallanes - A future Hotspot?

OFFICE : "Historical Highs" - Colliers Report on Q2-2018 ====== EXCERPTS Large multinational and knowledge process outsourcing (KPO) firms with plans to consolidate should consider space within Ortigas, Fort Bonifacio, and the Bay Area as these locations will likely account for half of new space due to be completed over the next six to 18 months. Cost-sensitive government agencies and small business es planning to transfer to planning to transfer to new space should consider buildings in Quezon City. Vacancy rate Colliers projects Metro Manila office sector to post a 5% vacancy by end-2018. Sustained demand should temper the impact of new buildings. Hence, we see vacancy hovering between 5.3% and 6.0% from 2019 to 2021 Rent We see lease rates rising by about 8% to 10% per year from 2019 to 2021. Colliers expects lease rates to rise faster in Makati CBD and its fringes, Fort Bonifacio, and Manila Bay Area Space& Rents GLA2017: +3yrs: %Chg. : - Q2.2018 : Mid.: YOY chg : Vacancy Makati-CBD---: 3,227K : 183.7k: + 5.7% : 1200-1700: 1450 : + 9.7% : 1.2 % Makati-Fringe: 0,255k : 205.3k: +80.5% : BGC-Ft.Boni. : 1,917k : 647.5k: +33.8% : 0850-1500: 1175 : + 11.9% : 3.8 % Ortigas Ctr.--- : 1,645k : 390.1k: +23.7% : 0650-0900: 0775 : + 10.7% : 3.9 % OrtigasFringe: 0,414k : 101.5k: +24.5% : Manila Bay--- : 0,409k : 408.4k: +99.9% : 0800-1500: 1150 : + 37.3% : 1.9 % QC: Prm&GrA: 1,005k : 496.1k: +49.4% : 0650-0950: P800 : + 6.7% : Alabang-------- : 0,573k : 142.0k: +24.8% : 0650-0750: P700 : + 3.7% : Other------------ : 0,341k : 245.5k: +72.0% : Metro Manila: 9,778k : 2,806k: +28.7% : City HQ, with 19,500 GLA, sqm was the big completion in Makati in Q2. Overall, 164,000 was added by 7 major buildings in Metro Manila "Midway through 2018, Colliers recorded a net take up of 641,000 sq m (6.89 million sq ft), already higher than the 638,000 sq m (6.86 million sq ft) posted for the entire 2017. For 2018 we expect a little over 1 million sq m (10.7 million sq ft) of net take up, the highest in Metro Manila's history." > https://f.tlcollect.com/fr2/418/40215/Colliers_Manila_Office_Q2_2018_FINAL.pdf

=== : PRODUCTION Mo. : Prod'17: Prod'18: Q1- : 39,008 : 52,672 /3= 17,557 ave. Apr : 14,332 : May: 15,444 : Jun : 16,299 : 18,113 :1H/6: 17,596 Q2- : 46,075 : 52,906 : + 14.8% H1 : 85,084 : 105,578 : + 24.1% July : 00,000 : 19,296 : 12m : 000.0k : 198.6k > +14% vs 2017 Total prev. 173.8k : 194.3k > 2018 Target: Now 200k oz+ (was 182-193k oz) ==== INCOME SENSITIVITY to Production (in Ounces) ======= : - 2016 - : - 2017 -: // Q1'2017- : Q4'2017- : -Q1'2018- : -Q2'2018- : -Q3'2018- : Prod.Oz : 149,708 : 173,821 // 39,008oz : 51,699oz : 52,672oz : 52,906oz : 50,000oz : Au. Sold : ======> : ======> // 38,434oz : ====== > : 49,610oz : 52,051oz : 50,000oz : -AU.Debs: ======> : ======> // ======> : $ 00.0M > : ======= > ======> : 3.9k(7.8%) : -Debt.OS: ======> : ======> // ======> : $ 00.0M > : ======= > $ 78.54M : $ 78.54 M : -CPLTD- : ======> : ======> // ======> : $ 00.0M > : ======= > $31.87M : $ 31.87 M : -DebtTTL ======> : ======> // ======> : $ 99.1M > : ======= > $110.4M : $110.41 M : -Cash--- : ======> : ======> // ======> : $ 15.2M > : ======= > $28.44M : $ 28.44 M :: Shs.OS- : ======> : ======> // ======> : #20.87M > ======= > #30.88M : # 48.2 Mn : Bk.Value: ======> : ======> // ======> : $10.75/sh. ======= > $7.17/sh : $ 5.30/ Est : +C$2.21wts xXXM Revenues $185.1M : $215.4M // $ 45.7 M : $ 70.9 Mn : $ 64.8 Est : $ 68.9 Est : $ 61.00 Est : Revs/Oz: $1,236oz : $1,239oz // $1189oz : $1371/oz : $1306/oz. : $1286/oz. : $1220Est (=$115.6x10.55) EBITDA : $ 66.0 M : $ 75.5 M // $ 13.6 Mn : $ 26.8 Mn : $ 27.4 Mn : $ 26.5 Mn : $ 22.5 Est : EB-/Oz. : $ 441/oz : $ 434/oz // $ 349/oz : $ 518/oz : $ 520/oz : $ 509/oz : $ 450/Est : FinlChg. : $ 32.8 M : $ 32.2 M // $ 7.88 M : $ 8.37 Mn : $9.10 Est : $8.00 Est : $6.00 Est Eb-Fin'l. : $ 33.2M : $ 43.3 M // $ 5.72 M : $ 18.4 Mn : $ 18.3 Mn : $ 18.5 Est : Adj.NetI : $ 15.6 M : $ 22.9 M // $ 3.10 M : $ 11.0 Mn : $ 9.85 Mn : $ 8.21 Mn : $ 6.0 Est aNI/Oz. : $ 104/oz : $ 132/oz // $79.4/oz : $ 213 /oz : $ 199 /oz : $ 158 /oz. : $ 120/ Est. Net Inc.- : $ - n/a - : $ - n/a - : // ( 0.8 M ) : $ - n/a - - : $ 5.4 Mn : $ ??? Mn . ExcessCF : $ 2.9M : $ 16.4 M // $ 2.28 M : $8.60 Mn : $3.22 Mn : $11.21 M : $6.00 Est : ===== *The Company is continuing to deposit 1,300 oz on a monthly basis in 2018 into the Gold Trust Account as required for the Gold Notes. The next scheduled quarterly principal repayment will take place on October 31, 2018. . The Book Value deciined since 12/17 by about half, as Debs. were converted at just US$1.95 US$ 5.30 BV / 0.76 = C$ 6.97

"straight lines... possible manmade structure" Nobody Still Can Explain What Was Found On Mars! 2018

Gran Colombia Gold Reports Second Quarter and First Half 2018 Results; New Capital Structure Reduces Leverage; Trailing 12-Months’ Adjusted EBITDA Reaches $95 Million / NET LOSS of $30.9 Million, $1.09 per share, on extinguishment of the 2020 and 2024 Debentures August 14, 2018 TORONTO, Aug. 14, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM. TPRFF) announced today the release of its unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements and accompanying management’s discussion and analysis (MD&A) for the three and six months ended June 30, 2018. All financial figures contained herein are expressed in U.S. dollars (“USD”) unless otherwise noted. Serafino Iacono, Executive Co-Chairman of Gran Colombia, commenting on the Company’s results for the first half of 2018, said, “We are very pleased with the outcome of our efforts this year to fix our capital structure, reduce our leverage and strengthen our balance sheet. Our senior debt is now down to $93 million, about half of what it was two years ago. Our operating success at Segovia, one of the top highest-grade underground gold operations globally, has been a solid engine driving our free cash flow that has enabled us to refinance our convertible debentures and put cash back on our balance sheet rather than in sinking funds. Our first half 2018 operating and financial results reaffirm that we are seeing continuous improvement in production, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. We can now step into a new era, one where we use our internally generated cash flows and our high quality assets to take this Company to the next level as a cash generating, mid-size Latin America-focused gold producer.” Second Quarter and First Half 2018 Highlights The Company has successfully transformed its capital structure in 2018, eliminating the convertible debentures which exposed shareholders to further dilution, and in the process, strengthened its balance sheet by reducing its debt to equity ratio and increasing its cash position, which stood at $24.9 million at June 30, 2018. On April 30, 2018, the Company completed a $98 million Offering of Units, comprising 8.25% senior secured gold-linked notes due 2024 (the “Gold Notes”) and warrants (the “2024 Warrants”), to refinance its 2020 and 2024 Debentures, providing the Company with greater access to its internally generated free cash flow to explore, expand and modernize its mining operations, and significantly reducing the potential dilution to the Company’s shareholders compared with the previous capital structure. Holders of $22.9 million aggregate principal amount of 2020 and 2024 Debentures elected to roll their debt into the Offering and the net cash proceeds raised through the Offering of approximately $67.6 million was more than sufficient to complete the redemption of the remaining 2020 and 2024 Debentures totaling $63.5 million aggregate principal amount on May 14, 2018. In addition, the $9.6 million of cash held in the sinking fund for the 2020 and 2024 Debentures was also released to the Company in the second quarter of 2018, helping to bolster its cash position. On August 13, 2018, the Company completed the repayment of its 2018 Debentures. As the weighted average trading price during the 20-day measurement period prior to maturity on August 11, 2018 (“Maturity”) exceeded $1.95 per share, the Company was able to exercise its option to repay the remaining $32.1 million aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Debentures outstanding and accrued interest entirely with common shares, increasing the total issued and outstanding common shares of the Company as of August 13, 2018 to 48.2 million. Following three consecutive quarters with over 50,000 ounces of gold production, the Company has raised its guidance for 2018 and now expects that it will produce over 200,000 ounces of gold this year. Total gold production of 52,906 ounces in the second quarter of 2018, up 15% over the second quarter of 2017, brought the total gold production for the first half of 2018 to 105,578 ounces, up 24% over the first half last year. The Company followed this up with a further 19,296 ounces of gold produced in July 2018. Fueled by continued growth in the Company’s high-grade Segovia Operations, the Company’s trailing 12-months’ total gold production increased to 198,632 ounces as of July 2018, up 14% over the total for 2017 of 173,821 ounces and above the Company’s initial guidance range for 2018 of between 182,000 and 193,000 ounces. The Company will continue to prioritize its exploration and development activities to identify avenues to increase production from its cash-generating, high-grade Segovia Operations. Through the first half of 2018, the Company completed 88 holes representing approximately 56% of the 20,000 meters of drilling planned for Segovia this year with three rigs carrying out resource definition within the underground developments of the Providencia and El Silencio mines and one drill rig operating from surface at Sandra K targeting peripheral extensions to the known vein system. On June 18, 2018, the Company announced multiple high-grade results from the ongoing underground sampling program in the deepest levels of the El Silencio mine and that it had identified a new structure at the El Silencio mine. On August 7, 2018, the Company announced that it will follow up on these results with additional drilling at El Silencio in 2018 to extend the north, middle and south ore-shoots down-plunge with the objective of testing extensions another 200 meters below the currently delineated resource. This drilling program, expected to commence in September, will be a combination of conventional drilling with 50 meter by 50 meter nominal center spacing on the north ore-shoot and directional drilling on the middle and south ore-shoots. Revenue increased 23% in the second quarter of 2018 over the second quarter last year to $68.9 million bringing the first half 2018 total revenue to $133.7 million, up 31% over the first half last year. 2018’s revenue has been positively impacted by the increased level of gold production as described above and higher realized gold prices in the first half of 2018 as spot gold prices rose 6% compared with the first half last year. The Company continued to hold its total cash costs (1) and all-in sustaining costs(“AISC”) (1) in the second quarter and first half of 2018 within its guidance range. For the second quarter of 2018, total cash costs and AISC averaged $696 per ounce and $913 per ounce, respectively, bringing the first half 2018 averages to $683 per ounce and $905 per ounce, respectively. For 2018, the Company continues to expect that its total cash costs and AISC averages for the full year will remain below $735 per ounce and $950 per ounce, respectively. For the third consecutive quarter, the Company reported adjusted EBITDA (1)in excess of $26 million. The trailing 12-months adjusted EBITDA at the end of June 2018 stood at $94.6 million, up 25% over 2017’s adjusted EBITDA of $75.5 million, driven by production growth, better realized gold prices and continued efforts to control total cash costs per ounce. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2018 increased to $26.5 million compared with $21.3 million in the second quarter of 2017, bringing the first half 2018 adjusted EBITDA to a total of $53.9 million, up 55% over the first half last year. The Company generated $11.2 million of Excess Cash Flow(1) in the second quarter of 2018, up from $2.6 million in the first quarter this year which included a heavier burden of income tax payments in Colombia. This brings the total Excess Cash Flow generated during the first half of 2018 to $13.8 million, more than double the amount generated during the first half of 2017, fueled by the improvement in adjusted EBITDA. The Company reported a net loss for the second quarter of 2018 of $30.7 million, or $1.09 per share, compared with net income of $33.8 million, or $1.65 per share, in the second quarter last year. For the first half of 2018, the Company reported a net loss of $25.4 million, or $1.02 per share, compared with net income of $33.0 million or $1.64 per share, in the first half last year. The net losses reported for 2018 include $26.4 million of losses on financial instruments, primarily triggered by the extinguishment of the 2020 and 2024 Debentures in the second quarter, and a $ 7.6 million charge for the costs associated with the Offering completed in the second quarter of 2018. The net earnings in the second quarter and first half of 2017 included a reversal of impairment of the Segovia Operations in the amount of $45.3 million. Adjusted net income (1) for the second quarter of 2018 was $8.2 million, or $0.29 per share, up from $6.8 million, or $0.33 per share, in the second quarter last year, bringing the adjusted net income for the first half of 2018 to $18.1 million, or $0.72 per share, compared with $9.9 million, or $0.50 per share, in the first half last year. The year-over-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA was the primary driver behind the improved adjusted net earnings in 2018. On July 26, 2018, the Company completed the acquisition of an approximately 15% investment in Sandspring Resources Ltd. (“Sandspring”), a Canadian junior mining company currently moving toward a feasibility study for the multi-million-ounce Toroparu Project in the emerging western Guyana gold district. Sandspring concurrently completed the acquisition of a 100% interest in the Chicharron Project located within the Company’s mining title at Segovia. > http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Reports-Second-Quarter-and-First-Half-2018-Results-New-Capital-Structure-Reduces-Leverage-Trailing-12-Months-Adjusted-EBITDA-Reaches-95-Million/default.aspx

Top Silver Miner, FRES-nillo has been weak FRES.L ... update ==

Dr. Richard Alan Miller: 99.95% that Earth's Ocean currents will have to reboot, as soon as by 2020

5% for 5 years? Not is a bad return, if the Bank is Low risk. If you buy a NEW Property, you will be lucky to make 6-7% Gross. After expenses of maybe 2-3% or more. that's just 3-5% Net. Why take the risk of buying an "overpriced" New property? Some will buy because, well, the sales agent convinces them that they can afford the "Payment Structure". People should be focused on what happens AFTER they get the keys, not the 'manipulated' payment structures before the real consequences of Owning kicks in

DBA (agri.commodities) vs. Precious Metals (GLD, SLV) fr. 5.24.2013 : with GLD : $114.69 and $17.21/$14.41= Ratio 119.4% ==