drbubb

Perhaps these two companies deserve closer study right now HK-386 / China Petroleum & Chemical Corp ... update : 3yrs - HK$4.56 MUR / Murphy Oil ... update : 3yrs - $23.54, which is back to 2004 levels

"How these guys get a fan base will be as important as their field activities." True enough. And in the present market, a fan base is not easy to generate. If gold begins a sustained rise, it will get far easier

Topped up some HLG/ HK-10 today at $25.35-25.40 HLG broke $26, to new low at $25.25 while HLP held $18 (above its $17 Low) HLG /hk10 - long term : all data / HLP-all HLG /hk10 - daily chart : 3yr / HLP-3yr

Topped up some HLG/ HK-10 today at $25.35-25.40 HLG broke $26, to new low at $25.25 while HLP held $18 (above its $17 Low) HLG /hk10 - long term : all data / HLP-all HLG /hk10 - daily chart : 3yr / HLP-3yr

JLL (& hlp) currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Investors interested in the real estate operations industry may also consider stocks like Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI - Snapshot Report), Hang Lung Properties Limited (HLPPY - Snapshot Report) and Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. (HLDCY - Snapshot Report). While Colliers International Group sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), both Hang Lung Properties and Henderson Land Development hold the same Zacks Rank as JLL. - See more at: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/198257/jll-signs-agreement-to-acquire-martin-potts-amp-associates#sthash.y6UCkoJ3.dpuf end october: Hang Lung Properties Limited Upgraded to "Buy" by Zacks (HLPPY) Dakota Financial News-Oct 28, 2015 Hang Lung Properties Limited logo Zacks upgraded shares of Hang Lung Properties Limited (NASDAQ:HLPPY) from a hold rating to a buy ... back in march 2015: Hang Lung Properties looks to rental boost from makeover of key HK ... South China Morning Post (subscription)-Mar 5, 2015 Hang Lung Properties is counting on a HK$500 million makeover of its main retail properties in Mong Kok and Causeway Bay to boost its rental ... Hang Lung bags H&M flagship Hong Kong Standard-Mar 5, 2015

Dinner and a movie? No thanks, says Ronnie Chan. Hong Kong’s Hang Lung Properties expert slams plans to turn malls into entertainment hubs. Property experts say that malls should become entertainment complexes to adapt Wed., 02 December, 2015 To combat growing competition and declining retail sales, some experts say that shopping malls must become entertainment complexes. The chairman of Hong Kong-listed Hang Lung Properties argues that this is unprofitable. China’s economy is slowing down, as well as its retail sector. As shopping centres struggle to deal with a glut in the market and rising competition from e-commerce players, property experts say that malls need to transition to become a social place for consumers rather than just a space for commerce in order to survive. “The function of the shopping mall has changed, and the boundary between commerce and living has been blurred,” said Cathy Hau, executive director of Citic Capital. “(Malls have) become an extension of your living place.” In China, more shopping centres are increasing the scope of entertainment and food and beverage areas in an attempt to boost traffic and retention in their facilities. The percentage of food and beverage in malls have increased dramatically, by “at least” 30 per cent, said Christine Lam, executive director of architecture and design firm Aedas. In the third quarter of this year, economic growth in the mainland fell to 6.9 per cent - the lowest rate since the financial crisis. According to statistics from Wind Financial, 60 per cent of the 26 listed Chinese department store operators also reported a year-on-year decline in profit, with several referencing “weakening macro conditions” and logging net losses. Malls should be built and marketed in a way that does not prioritise entertainment. Despite the downturn, Ronnie Chan, chairman of Hang Lung Properties, argued against the model and said that a transition towards more “experiential” malls would mean a loss in profits. Malls can be built and marketed in a way that does not prioritise entertainment, he said. “Whenever I hear that, I’m very sad,” Chan said, adding that it’s important to think about the shareholders’ interests. “Restaurants don’t pay rent … or high rent. Those are low return leaders in terms of driving traffic.” Although Chan knows properties that have an entertainment make-up of close to 70 per cent, he emphasised that Hang Lung properties in the mainland do not follow this trend, although they may include cinemas on the upper floors to drive traffic. Restaurants only account for about 17 per cent in Shanghai’s Plaza 66, he said. Regarding the issue of oversupply in the market, Chan said that most of the malls in China are low quality and thus there are still ample opportunities for developers. “There’s only five players that know how to do really good quality, four star or five star shopping malls in China,” Chan said. “If you build one of those, you’ll be fine.” === > more: http://www.scmp.com/property/article/1885973/malls-become-entertainment-complexes-hong-kongs-hang-lung-properties

Gold has held up better than Oil for the last several months GLD / Gold ... all-data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs GLD vs. OilB (etf for Brent Oil) ... all-data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs Gold-to-Brent ratio has run up to a resistance level (near 27:1); It may make sense to consider shifting from Gold to Oil (or oil shares?)

Gold has held up better than Oil for the last several months GLD / Gold ... all-data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs GLD vs. OilB (etf for Brent Oil) ... all-data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs Gold-to-Brent ratio has run up to a resistance level (near 27:1); It may make sense to consider shifting from Gold to Oil (or oil shares?)

Paradigm shifting?? The ramifications of the mass application of SERPS technology are nothing short of paradigm shifting. It is widely known that the “energy variable” is a primary factor in US policies. The pursuit of energy is no doubt a catalyst for many of the decisions politicians regularly make. However, most Americans are only aware of the research efforts which involve the utilization of coal, petroleum, nuclear power, wind and solar. These accepted avenues of exploration receive over 5 billion dollars in subsidies per year, while independent researchers like Jim are totally ignored. The positive environmental impact of radical technologies like SERPS also cannot be understated. While lawmakers continue to pay lip service to the issue of global warming, this technology could drastically reduce the carbon footprint of the entire planet. Mountaintop coal removal is destroying entire swaths of land, oil sands developments are already slated to be the cause of up to the second fastest rate of deforestation, and hydraulic fracturing for oil & natural gas can require up to 15.8 million gallons of water per well. In 2012, the total energy output from wind power alone in the US surpassed 60 gigawatts, enough capacity to power nearly 15 million homes. While renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydro have been widely criticized as being inefficient to meet the nation’s energy demands. The obvious truth is that through the use of technologies like the SEPRS device, we can more than meet our energy needs. So long as organizations exist that can legally ensure the suppression of emerging technologies, the best interests of the people will always run secondary to the interests of those who have controlling ownership in traditional power systems. You Bet! - if it works

"In a recent interview on the Vinneyeastwood shown Fulford claimed that Jeff Rense has sold his soul and now pushes disinfo?" - Yelik Yeah. I heard that too. Why? I think because JR said some negative things about BF, and no longer has him on his show (here's a longish interview with Dr RAM that I missed, from a few weeks ago): Richard Alan Miller Consciousness of Economics TV Show October 22, 2015 ... and another ... Hyperspace 11-10-2015 Dr. Richard Alan Miller https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUViBAO1DjA

Jeff Rense & Dr. Richard Alan Miller - Breakthroughs In Nanotechnology https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdiiR1NZcaU Published on Nov 29, 2015 Please visit http://www.rense.com/ for updates and information you will never see on Fox News! Clip from November 10, 2014 - guest Dr. Richard Alan Miller on the Jeff Rense Program. Full program available in Archives at http://www.renseradio.com/signup.htm

(From the Makati diaries) # 5 : ARCA South tour ARCA South : The Half-way house that's half-way home Manila's traffic and the long duration journeys from the provinces have encouraged Filipinos to buy homes in and near CBD's like Makati and BGC so that they can live close to their jobs (and children's schools) during the week, and drive home on the weekends. This makes traffic particularly bad at the end of the week (Friday nights and Saturday morning), and again at the beginning of the week. The short journey from Makati to FTI might take 45 minutes or more when there is heavy trafffc. Some Filipinos are aiming to own their weekday "half-way house" closer to the ultimate working destination to cutdown on the time required for the long journey to their weekend homes. ARCO South is Ayalaland's new development south of the airport, at the intersection of two major highway arteries, SLEC and C5. This area was previously called FTI, for Food Terminal International, an idea that has by now outlived its time. ALI bought 74 hectares at a healthy price (over P30k per SM?) to turn it into one of its major new CBD's in the Metro Manila. The first residential buildings will be completed in about 2018-19. Each of ALI's top three home builders have a presence there: ALP (Alaya Premier) with prices centering on perhaps P 180k per SM, ALVEO at around P 150k, and Avida, near P 120k, or higher. These prices are not far off Makati prices. And there is a reason. Heights are limited to perhaps 15-20 stories, because the area is in or near the flightpath of aircraft landing at Aquino International airport, and skyscrapers are not permitted by the zoning restrictions. With the lower maximum building heights, the developer is not able to enjoy the economies of scale that come with building 30 stories and above. Thus, while the land is cheaper than in Makati or BGC, the end price to the condo buyer is not significantly lower. A nice feature of the Veranda development, ALVEO's offering, is the "air-flow" concept where air openings between buildings, including internal courtyards will help hot air to circulate through the buildings and escape out openings near the skylights. The mid-rise and more spacious building plan, when compared with Makati or BGC - will make this feature highly functional, and will give homeowners more pleasant breezes year-round, and may even help to lower A/C bills. ARCA has a nice mix of development coming. The commercial buildings sold quickly, and the residential units are being offloaded at a reasonable pace. There have been several price rises, totaling more than 10% since the initial launches. No doubt, people are attracted by the location on the major highways. And the attractive design of the main street with its restaurants, and shopping, plus a high end mall are other key features. People are thrilled with the idea of having something like Greenbelt closer to home. A hospital and a SEDA hotel are also planned for Arca South. Conclusion: This will be an interesting development to watch, but I do not think it is (yet) the most suitable for overseas investors seeking higher yields. Prices are not substantially lower than what can be found in Makati / BGC, and it may not be as easy to rent at Makati type prices, especially initially. I expect that it will be a success, because of the number of local people seeking a convenient half-way house, in a area that will be pleasant to live in. Footnote: Regarding the railway connection There is a PNR railway stop called FTI station on the Fringe of ARCA South. There is a definite plan to combine this with the integrated terminal that will be built there. This might be a part of ALI's long term planning. But since they have little or no control over the railway, the main part of their development strategy must revolve around Arca itself, nearby land, and bus and car flows that will come through the road arteries, and the integrated transport terminal. During the APEC conference in Nov. 2015, Japan announced that it would provide loans of up to P 80 Billion for development of rail on Luzon island. Most of this will reportedly be spent on extending the northern rail link beyond Quezon City. But some may be spent on the Southern lines to, and it could make the link from PNR's Pasay station to FTI (just 3 stops, and maybe less than 20 minutes?) more pleasant and useful to middle class commuters, who until have shown a strong preference (until now) for traveling in their private cars. That may work so long as gasoline prices are reasonable, and there is sufficient parking. But these factors can shift, along with the quality of the train journey, making travel by rail a viable choice even for those who own cars. Stations going South from Makati : Buendia > Pasay Rd > EDSA > Nichols > FTI / Arca South … and on to Calamba > MORE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Philippine_National_Railways_stations During the tour, I considered how far a walk there would be from the FTI rail station to the Arbor, Veranda, and Union South properties. Most of the walk may be covered, and protected from rain and sun. But it is a long way. So it seems likely that those who travel that distance will prefer to take a shuttle bus or to bicycle. I could see no evidence than ALI was considering a shuttle bus for such passengers. And I do not know if they are making provisions to allow bikes to park near the station.) Dr.B.

#6: The Niggling Details of Property Owning in Manila Hong Kong is an easy place to buy and rent out properties. It is not so easy in the Philippines, especially for foreign investors who may not have friends of family in Manila whio can assist them with their property investments. The market is becoming more mature, but it has not yet reached the stage where passive investments can easily be made headache-free. Some careful planning is needed to help minimize potential delays and inconveniences. Buying is reasonably straightforward. Foreigners cannot buy land, but they can purchase up to 40% of a condo project. And developers from the Philippines have now gone out to look for foreign buyers, beyond those Overseas Foreign Workers, who hold Philippines citizenship. If the new buyers have patience and luck, they may find that their new properties are ready when they expect them to be finished. A notable problem is that target completion dates, are nothing more than targets - and some developers wind up missing them by many months, or by years in some cases. Even Ayala Land, which has a strong reputation for delivering its properties on time, has begun to have problems getting the people and materials it needs to finish on schedule. A few of their projects have experienced multi-month delays. Some developers, like Eaton, at their Eaton Tower project has been 1-2 years late. And for Eaton Tower, the finished project looks unlike the original render. The finished Eton Tower looks little like the original render These potential problems are not good news for buyers, since the Contracts are light on deadline and penalties. So the buyer can suffer penalties and even foreclosure if they do not pay on time, but the penalties for late completion on the developers' side are mostly light, or non-existent. If a buyer points this out this lack of symmetry to an agent, he is likely to be met with a shrug of shoulders, and an inadequate explanation such as, "this is the Philippines; get used to it." Dealing with top-class developers, with reputation to protect is recommended Otherwise, buy something that is complete, or nearly complete, so you can see what you are getting before you pay over all your money. Renting also has some headaches in the Philippines. For instance, the usual method of rent payment is different. Many HK tenants will pay their rents by setting up a regular direct debit and transfer, on the same day of each month, so the landlord is assured of getting the rent on time. For some mysterious reason, this method is not used. Perhaps banks charge too much for this handy service, when the money is remitted to a different bank. Instead, a tenant will typically pay two month's security, and two month's advance rent before getting the key - and also hand over ten post dated cheques. For luxury flats, some tenants may even pay a full year's rent in advance. This may be most common with furnished flats rented by expats, where the company is paying the rent, and no one wants delays or headaches. For locals renting Furnished or Unfurnished flats, the Post-dated Cheque (PDC) method is common. It was suggested to me when Avida Leasing was talking about finding a tenant for my new flat at SanLo. The problem for me to receive PDC's is how do I deposit them? I asked my bank. HSBC, if I could turn over the cheques to them, and they might peal off the relevant cheque each month and deposit it. HSBC has no such service. ALC, Avida Leasing, is "considering" offering this service, in return for a small payment. But they will not have a clear decision on this until January 2016 at the earliest. And it might be no. ALC suiggested I find "a trusted friend of family member" to do it. But it is a responsibility that few would welcome. Eventually, I found someone who would do so, but it seemed to be a unfair favor to ask. Another possibility, was the tenant could be required to deposit the cheque each month. But my bank, HSBC, is a 10-15 minutes walk away from SanLo. I can imagine that some tenants might agree, but after the first month or two, they may regret the long walk and the inconvenience, and my rent would become chronically late. I would rather not take that chance. Why not open an account with a local bank, and have the tenant deposit rental payments there? Makes sense, so I spoke to the top three local banks in terms of size, BDO, Metrobank, and BPI. BDO and BPI both asked for "two ID's": my passport, and copy of "my ACR". I did not know what an ACR was. It turns out that they wanted an Alien Certificate Of Registration. If I stayed beyond 59 days, i could obtain one in return for a payment of about US$50. Metrobank said that they might accept my US passport plus a letter from Avida confirming that I was the owner of a flat in their building. On my last full business day in Manila, I got a copy of such a letter, and appeared at the branch at 4:33 to try to open a bank account. Unfortunately, Metrobank closes at 4:30 pm. and they were not willing to let me in. I was taken by surprise because other banks like BDO and BPI stay open until 5pm or 6pm. No wonder Metrobank was so empty the first time I visited them, and asked about their requirements to open an account. Eventually, I found an answer. The clue came from a friend in Hong Kong. He opened his account with Bank of the Philippines Islands (BPI) in Hong Kong, and then he can open a Peso account in Manila when he needs one. I asked BDO, if they had a branch in HK, and they confirmed they did. And it should be easy to open an account in Manila if I was already a customer of BDO in Hong Kong. (I will confirm this after I get back to HK.)* Having an account with a local bank with many branches will make it easy for a tenant to deposit a rent check at a local branch, if indeed I go that route. For the time being, I plan to leave my studio flat mostly empty, and use it as my base when in Makati. Other issues that I investigated, were paying the monthly bills ahead of time. I wanted to pay the Associate Fees (AK, or management fees) for my flat one year in advance. Avida was not ready to accept this, because the AF had not yet been set, or even collected for Tower 1. The arrangement that Avida has, is that it will not charge any AF fees until all the amenities are open. The opening of the swimming pool and other amenities is expected to happen in January, or at least sometime during the first Quarter. I pressed them on this point, and suggested that I might pay a notional amount in December, such as P.2,000 per month, or almost P.24,000 for the year - so long as they would give me a discount for early payment. (Other nearby properties such as Beacon Tower are said to offer a 10% discount, if AF's are paid in December of the prior year.) I was promised an answer, and was told on my last day there that they would offer a 2% discount for early payment of AF's for 2016. But such payments would only be accepted between Jan 1 - Jan. 31st, 2016. To be fair to Avida, I understand they what to see the actual amount of fees before accepting prepayments. Their best estimate was that the amount would be between P85 and P115 per square meters. If it turns out to be P95, then the monthly AF cost for my flat of 22.08 SM would be: P 2,098. Avida's admin office handles the water bills, and they did accept a prepayment of P 500 for future water bills. After handing over this prepayment, and getting a receipt, I checked the water meter on my floor as I was turning off the water just prior to leaving for the airport. It was close to zero, just 0.7. So I am sure my P 500 will cover many months of water usage. Electricity is bill directly to tenants by Manila Electric (MERALCO). I tried to pay the bill through the business service center in at the Robinson's store in Walmart. I had a letter from Avida showing I was the owner of my particular unit. They refused my payment, saying they needed a billing number before they accept any payments. This was a sort of Catch-22 problem for me. Avida had told me that I would have to pay Meralco directly, since electricity supply was now in my name. But Meralco would not accept a payment from me. The usual solution, is to wait to receive the bill, and then pay it. Since I had been owner of the flat for less than a month, no first bill had yet been generated when it was time to leave. So I had no way to pay the bill. I explained the catch-I-was-caught-in to Avida's Admin office, and they agreed to make a temporary except. They took my cash and agreed to pay the first bill when it arrived, and to also try to make a prepayment with the cash left. I found the people in the office to be very willing to help. But they explained to me that my case was unusual. Although Tower-1 had another America expat living in it, nearly every other flat had a local owner, or people with friends or family who would attend to bills. They said that they would try to make some new policies that would allow them to deal with these future sorts of clients when they arose. My case was a test case, and so they were solving the issues on an adhoc basis. I thanked them f or their understanding, and they thanked me for mine. The conversation and relationship remained friendly, and we all wanted that. There is also a property tax to pay. Unlike the practice in Hong Kong, the administrators of the tax do not send bills directly to the property owners. You need to visit their office, and find out how much tax you owe. I heard that some homeowners forget to do that, and then they discover that they have back taxes and penalties to pay before they can complete their sale. i wanted to avoid those surprises. Avida admin did some checking and told me that the tax for 2015 had likely been paid already on my property. I will wait for my next trip to sort out the 2016 tax payments. At the moment, I am expecting that this amount will be less than one month's rent (say P 10-12,000 or less.) but this is just an estimate. This installment has included some slow and careful explanations. It may be boring to those who are not interested in the "niggling details". But for those who own property in Makati and BGC, or are anticipating becoming owners, it may prove to be a very useful and practical record. It is better to know of these matters in advance, rather than discovering them later, when they more be more expensive to fix. ===== Branches of Philippines banks in Hong Kong - in order of Size of Asset base + BDO / BDO Unibank G/F, Euro Trade Centre, 13-14 Connaught Road C., Hong Kong Hours: Monday to Friday: 9:00 AM - 5:00 PM Telephone: (852)2901-0220 (English/Fukien/Tagalog) > https://www.bdo.com.ph/branches-atms-locator + Metrobank Shops 201-206m 2nd Floor Worldwide House Plaza No. 19 Des Voeux Road, Central Hong Kong Telephone : (852) 2877-9161 / (852) 2877-3569 / FAX: (852) 2856-3902 Email : worldwide@mbrchk.com + BPI / Bank of the Philippine Islands Worldwide Branch Shop 115, 1st Floor, Worldwide House, 19 Des Voeux Road, Central, Hong Kong TEL: (852) 2521-5366 / 2522-7105 FAX: (852) 2866-2476 Email: bpiworldwide115@bpihk.com Other BPI Hong Kong Branches in HK: Hung Hom, Yuen Long, Tsuen Wan

Circuit's Location : Overpass & Underpass coming - Dedicated bus lane possibly? Located in A.P. Reyes Avenue and Hippodromo Street, Carmona Makati City, Solstice at Circuit Makati is a few minutes of travel from Ayala Avenue, the centerpiece of the Philippine’s Makati Central Business District == > https://circuitmakati.wordpress.com/location/ isateresa As part of Ayala Land's Php 80 billion redevelopment of the Makati Central Business District, the area will have integrated overpass and underpass systems and a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lane from the EDSA-Ayala Transport Terminal to Circuit Makati. #30DaysofAlveo #Alveo #Ayala #day8 #fact #CircuitMakati #Makati #MakeItMakati #realestate

Circuit Lane - the water feature... before it came to life ( Old image replaced ) > Link: https://www.skyscrapercity.com/threads/circuit-makati-ayalaland-estates.1443736/page-37#post-125911278 This is how the water feature looked in Sept. 2015 before Circuit opened ... the "concept is a flowing river running through the circuit lane making the river ...a part of the whole design concept as if the water in circuit lane connects itself to the pasig river. " > source It is much more lively that that now.

Pasig River of the Future? A futuristic image from 2011 Pasig River History During the Spanish settlement in Manila, the Pasig River functioned as an important means of transport. Thus, it was the lifeline of the city as well as the center of economic activities. During the establishment of Manila by the Spanish settlers, they built the walled city of Intramuros where one can see the Manila Cathedral, San Agustin Church, Plaza de Roma, Palacio del Gobernador,Plazuela de Santa Isabel among many others. Fort Santiago and Rizal Shrine, inside the walled city are the nearest to the southern bank of Pasig River near its mouth. Pasig River Pollution After the 2nd World War, the population of Manila began to grow massively and construction of infrastructures near the Pasig River started the contamination. Additionally, there were less economic activities making the river abandoned – there were no more maintenance and security. Because of fishes and ease of transport, the banks of Pasig River drew informal settlers and the factories dumped their wastes into the river, making it into a large sewer system. Industrialization had polluted the Pasig River. People did not mind the consequences they will get when they put garbage into the once useful river. In the 1930s, fish migrants from Laguna de Bay decreased. Observers noticed the increasing pollution of the river. 30 years later, the ferry transport stopped their services and the people stopped using the water of Pasig River for laundry. . . . Pasig River Ferry Service The Pasig River Ferry Service is the only water-based transportation that cruises the Pasig River from Barangay Pinagbuhatan in Pasig City to Intramuros in Manila. The system is owned and operated by a private company, SCC Nautical Transport Services Incorporated. Although commonly referred to as a ferry, it is more similar to a water bus. The operation began in February 14, 2007 with 10 Pasig River Ferries. It has 14 air-conditioned ferry stations and an estimate of 2,000 daily passengers. The average speed of the Pasig River Ferry is 10 knots (19 km/hour) and the top speed is 17 knots (31 km/hour). The Pasig River Ferries were designed by Robert Cole and the cost of each Ferry Boat is about P15 million. It has a seating capacity of 150 and amenities includes an Air conditioned Room, Music and High-Definition TV on board, Bar, and Separate comfort room. There are three prices of tickets: a P25, P35, P45 and a P60 ticket. The Pasig River Ferry Service also provides discounts to student passengers. A P20 ticket is available for students regardless of distance traveled. > scroll down: https://essentialgreen.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/

# 5 : ARCA South tour === ARCA South : The Half-way house that's half-way home Manila's traffic and the long duration journeys from the provinces have encouraged Filipinos to buy homes in and near CBD's like Makati and BGC so that they can live close to their jobs (and children's schools) during the week, and drive home on the weekends. This makes traffic particularly bad at the end of the week (Friday nights and Saturday morning), and again at the beginning of the week. The short journey from Makati to FTI might take 45 minutes or more when there is heavy trafffc. Some Filipinos are aiming to own their weekday "half-way house" closer to the ultimate working destination to cutdown on the time required for the long journey to their weekend homes. ARCO South is Ayalaland's new development south of the airport, at the intersection of two major highway arteries, SLEC and C5. This area was previously called FTI, for Food Terminal International, an idea that has by now outlived its time. ALI bought 74 hectares at a healthy price (over P30k per SM?) to turn it into one of its major new CBD's in the Metro Manila. The first residential buildings will be completed in about 2018-19. Each of ALI's top three home builders have a presence there: ALP (Alaya Premier) with prices centering on perhaps P 180k per SM, ALVEO at around P 150k, and Avida, near P 120k, or higher. These prices are not far off Makati prices. And there is a reason. Heights are limited to perhaps 15-20 stories, because the area is in or near the flightpath of aircraft landing at Aquino International airport, and skyscrapers are not permitted by the zoning restrictions. With the lower maximum building heights, the developer is not able to enjoy the economies of scale that come with building 30 stories and above. Thus, while the land is cheaper than in Makati or BGC, the end price to the condo buyer is not significantly lower. A nice feature of the Veranda development, ALVEO's offering, is the "air-flow" concept where air openings between buildings, including internal courtyards will help hot air to circulate through the buildings and escape out openings near the skylights. The mid-rise and more spacious building plan, when compared with Makati or BGC - will make this feature highly functional, and will give homeowners more pleasant breezes year-round, and may even help to lower A/C bills. ARCA has a nice mix of development coming. The commercial buildings sold quickly, and the residential units are being offloaded at a reasonable pace. There have been several price rises, totaling more than 10% since the initial launches. No doubt, people are attracted by the location on the major highways. And the attractive design of the main street with its restaurants, and shopping, plus a high end mall are other key features. People are thrilled with the idea of having something like Greenbelt closer to home. A hospital and a SEDA hotel are also planned for Arca South. This will be an interesting development to watch, but I do not think it is (yet) the most suitable for overseas investors seeking higher yields. Prices are not substantially lower than what can be found in Makati / BGC, and it may not be as easy to rent at Makati type prices, especially initially. I expect that it will be a success, because of the number of local people seeking a convenient half-way house, in a area that will be pleasant to live in. Footnote: Regarding the railway connection There is a PNR railway stop called FTI station on the Fringe of ARCA South. There is a definite plan to combine this with the integrated terminal that will be built there. This might be a part of ALI's long term planning. But since they have little or no control over the railway, the main part of their development strategy must revolve around Arca itself, nearby land, and bus and car flows that will come through the road arteries, and the integrated transport terminal. During the APEC conference in Nov. 2015, Japan announced that it would provide loans of up to P 80 Billion for development of rail on Luzon island. Most of this will reportedly be spent on extending the northern rail link beyond Quezon City. But some may be spent on the Southern lines to, and it could make the link from PNR's Pasay station to FTI (just 3 stops, and maybe less than 20 minutes?) more pleasant and useful to middle class commuters, who until have shown a strong preference (until now) for traveling in their private cars. That may work so long as gasoline prices are reasonable, and there is sufficient parking. But these factors can shift, along with the quality of the train journey, making travel by rail a viable choice even for those who own cars. Stations going South from Makati : Buendia > Pasay Rd > EDSA > Nichols > FTI / Arca South … and on to Calamba > MORE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Philippine_National_Railways_stations During the tour, I considered how far a walk there would be from the FTI rail station to the Arbor, Veranda, and Union South properties. Most of the walk may be covered, and protected from rain and sun. But it is a long way. So it seems likely that those who travel that distance will prefer to take a shuttle bus or to bicycle. I could see no evidence than ALI was considering a shuttle bus for such passengers. And I do not know if they are making provisions to allow bikes to park near the station.) D.B. ======== ARTICLE: Ayala Land to invest P80-billion for Arca South “At 74 hectares in size, Arca South is roughly the size of the Makati CBD and Bonifacio Global City Center. This is the kind of scale required to create a new center for Metro Manila with a variety of living, business and recreational options,” she added. It was estimated that some 60,000 residents and 400,000 office workers will find a home at Arca South. The estate will be equipped with 24/7 operations center for efficient traffic and road management as well as real-time alerts and emergency response system. According to ALI, Arca South will capitalize on two important infrastructure projects of the government. The first will be the Southeast International Transportation System (ITS) to be located on a 5.5-ha parcel reserved by the government beside Arca South. Second is the Skyway/C5-C6 connector road project. This connector road project will have separate ramps connecting to both the Southeast ITS and the Arca South development. This means that Arca South will be one exit away from Makati via the Skyway, about 5-10 minutes away from the CBD, Dy said. Read more: http://business.inquirer.net/170052/ayala-land-to-invest-p80-billion-for-arca-south#ixzz3tmmqOaQC > Thread on Arca South, etc : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20396

# 4 : Circuit tour === Circuit is Ayala Land Intl's latest CBD development in Makati. ALI took over the old Santa Ana racetrack (see photo above), and has begun to turn it into the family-friendly entertainment area of Makati. With the traffic congestion that plagues Greater Manila, it is not easy for hard-working people of Makati's thriving main CBD along Ayala Avenue to enjoy the cultural attractions of Manila. Unpredictable travel times, mean that most of those attractions are out of reach. Arrival for the 8pm (or whatever) performance time cannot be guaranteed. Circuit and its planned transport enhancements will change that. With the dedicated bus lanes that Ayala is planning, it should be possible to make a predictable journey from North Makati to Circuit inside 30 minutes (for example*), and from the center of Ayala station within 40 minutes (perhaps). This will enhance the cultural experience of Makati, and also make Circuit an attractive - and fun - place to live, with easy access to the high-paying jobs in the main financial district. Eventually, as the Pasig River (above) gets cleaned up, and now that factories are shut down, the appeal of living next to this body of water should increase too. And one day, you may see enhanced use of ferries from nearby areas like Rockwell. Circuit's cultural attractions will include a 400 -seater black box arena/theater, and smaller playhouse, as well as the already popular outdoor shell musical venue. There will also be cinemas and a shopping mall. So Circuit should be one of the lively places to live. Restaurants are already opening, and two floors of restaurants and shops are beginning to fill in, as restaurant diners and shopkeepers take advantage of Ayala's temporary bargain-rent policy (with short term discounts on rents of up to 50%) to launch their restaurants. 18 months ago when I first saw the Circuit area, it was not easy to imagine how it might look when it was complete. No buildings were finished, and the model was mostly a map. It showed where buildings were planned, but gave very little idea of what most of them would look like. Ayala has unparalleled experience in launching successful new CBD's. It is beginning to be apparent that they have done it again. The two first residential Towers, Solstice 1 and 2 are underway. Presently, the first tower has its foundations in place up to the 8th floor. That is where the amenities such as the gym and swimming pool will be. Solstice Tower 1 is expected to be completed only in late 2018/early 2019. Ayala has decided to give the area a good head start by making Circuit a popular and restaurant destination. The obvious strategy is to enhance the value of the flats by making the place come alive, and showing potential tenants the quality of live that is on offer at their doorstep. Most impressive, in terms of creating the lively fabric of the place, is the main walkway and restaurant area, called Circuit Lane, which will have over 20 shops and restaurants, as well as a outdoor performance area next to the so-called Spanish steps. Bands are already using this area. An event under the stars was being prepared for the evening of the Sunday when I visited the place. There were plenty of restaurant goers and curious people walking around, so I could imagine the band having a good audience. Without taking an actual count, it seemed that on the ground level, about 1/3 of the restaurants or shops had already opened, another 1/3 had named tenants who were preparing to open, and about 1/3 were still available for rent. Most of the shops on the second floor were still available for rent. One or two second floor restaurants, including those with the best views towards the Makati skyline were already open with customers. The shopping mall with cinemas will probably not be completed for some years. And it will be next to the office complex called Stiles that ALVEO is presently selling at prices in the region of P 140-145,000 psm. When I first saw Circuit, I was surprised to see that prices were only about 10% under the P120-130k levels that were available for Kroma and Lerato in early 2014. I wound up buying a high-floor flat at Kroma for about P 126k per SM. And both Kroma and Lerato are now (nearly) sold out. Open flats, when they get them, are sold at P130-140k on lower floors of those buildings. Prices for Solstice have not been increased so fast, so present prices of P114 - 120k (= HKD XXX per sf) now look like bargains, especially now that ALI has sold out near all of its stock of Makati flats, and other developers are routinely offering P150K for flats in buildings like Greenbelt Hamilton. In Solstice, ALVEO is selling 2 BR for P 9 million and up, and 1 BR of about 58 SM and up, for P 6.5 million and higher. 2BR are expected to appeal to couples with children, and the lack of schools in the immediate area could be a concern right now. Perhaps that requirement will be addressed by the developer or educational entrepreneurs later. The 1 BR flats might be a better buy. They may be easy to rent to single professionals and couples who want to be close to Circuit's restaurants and entertainments. As the offices are completed, there will also be jobs in the area, with an easy walk to one's job. The area should also be good for outdoor sports like jogging and bicycling, since it is less threatened by traffic and pollution from cars. The center area of Circuit Lane should remain forever from from cars. Some Makati residents dream of a nearby oasis with fewer cars. That's what Circuit should be. On my trip to Makati in early 2014, I met a young Irish IT professional. He was sitting outside Starbucks in front of Columns Ayala. I asked him how he liked living there. He said the easy walk to work, less than 10 minutes away was the key reason he lived there. As we watched the traffic circle around the island that is Columns Ayala, he said, "on weekends, I long to escape from all this", with a gesture towards the traffic. But it required at least two hours sitting in horrible traffic to get away. Maybe if he lived in Circuit, he would not have the same urge to escape Makati and its attractions. - D.B. ======== Footnote: *I think the transport link will be a key factor – the time frames I gave above are my own estimates of times that seem acceptable. These need to be confirmed. Ayala has announced plans to have dedicated bus lines running back and forth on South Avenue, which is the direct connection between Circuit and Ayala Avenue in Makati. The street will be renamed Ayala Avenue extension. I was told that there are some negotiations to me completed with Makati city officials, and nothing would be announced before next year's election, in Q2-2016. > New thread on the Attractions of Circuit Makati: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20447

# 3 === I have had very little access to the internet the last few days. R-- from ALVEO, and his girlfriend, L--, gave me nice tours on Sunday and on Monday - which was a holiday here. I will tell you all more about them later. I wrote some short tour reports. Then, yesterday, the contractors came to finish the repairs on my A/C platform and beginning installing some cabinets that I have ordered. They should finish the job today. I will send you some photos. I got the contractors started this morning, and went out to look for an internet shop. My usual internet place was closed. "Joy has not showed up today," I was told. I thought to myself: I know what you mean, No joy today. Eventually, I walked around and found another place that was open. The good news is that it is right next to a laundry, and I handed over my 2 KG of dirty clothes, and paid for 3KG, their minimum. At about P 75, that's HKD 13, and is still very cheap. So if I move here, I may not bother to buy a washing machine. I am still trying to open a bank account here. This afternoon or tomorrow, I will try again, armed with a letter from Avida saying I own a flat in their complex. Fingers crossed it will work. X--, drove all the way from the South with two nurse friends of hers. They wanted to "help me with the gout." Which meant telling me about all the foods that I should avoid - the list included the same foods that I am already avoiding. They also offered me a P6,000 packet consisting of a special juice formulated in Canada, and some pills. Because they had come so far, I felt obligated to buy some nutritional pills, and they were expensive enough that it should at least help to pay for the gas. I did want to pay the full P 6000, since that might have encouraged X-- to pitch to me every new MLM scheme she comes across. There are many of these right now in the Philippines, I am told. I will be more careful next time, when she tells me she has someone wants me to meet who can help me. I had considered staying here longer to get more of the furnishing done. But getting a visa extension and booking a later flight, is not as trivial as expected. Most of the flights are very full as we approach Christmas. This is not surprizing, since there are many Filipina helpers flying back and forth from Hong Kong over the holidays. The temperature is now warm and pleasant, and probably much nicer than HK, which I am starting to miss. I return on Monday night, so I hope to see some of you next week. D.B.

# 2 === Hello Friends There's been a slight change of plans. I am writing this from the lobby of the Eurotel, a small hotel just 3 minutes walk from my San Lo flat. I have decided to stay in my bare unit at SanLo longer than the 2-days that I expected. By giving back to the airBNB guy, V--, another week of my scheduled stay in his place, I can save some money - and that will help pay for some things like kitchen cabinets, etc. that I plan to add to my tiny studio unit. This will also help me to get to know Avida Towers San Lorenzo a little better so I might do a better job with the furnishing or renting it. The bad news is that I do not have an internet connection in my unfurnished new flat. Hence my visit to the lobby of this hotel. I just had dinner with an American guy, R--, who has recently retired from the US airforce. He is here for some medical treatments, and he came with his elderly parents, who are from the Philippines. They are having some medical treatments too. It is much cheaper here than the same treatments in the USA. And he thinks the quality of medical care is good. He has the same problem as I do no, no internet in his room, so he suggested I come here, He has sent emails from the lobby of this hotel once or twice. It is good to know about this hotel, since it is convenient to my new flat. And it is not pricey. Maybe I will stay here on future visits, or recommend it to others. It is still very hot here in Manila, and I get by at night, because it cools down quite a bit. I also bought a nice electric fan from Waltermart, and I used it in the room last night, and found I could sleep much better without sweating. But it is not quite as comfortable as V's air-conditioned AirBNB place. I am finding some good places to eat, so my health is pretty good. I will try and attached some photos of my flat - Done Looking into the flat, or outside the window. At the extreme right of the photo is Oriental Place, on Chino des Roces The area of low rise buildings tends to get flooded in heavy rains, so does not get built up The flat is pretty small. But apart from the problem with the AC platform, I am pretty happy with it. The main problems, are the horrible conditions of some sidewalks near the flat, and the challenge in getting work done on furnishing the flat with any sort of efficiency. I tried to buy three bathroom items today, things like mirrored cabinets and towel racks. A three items were out of stock. It really makes me wonder why the store is in business, and why they seem to have hired three times as many workers as they need. Instead, they should hire far fewer workers and train them better. And not waste money displaying object that they do not have in stock. ("Yes, we have no bananas. We have no bananas today") I won't go back to that particular shop. I wonder how many other customers have been lost patience in shopping there. Why bother to spend time shopping, when you are likely to be told the item is not in stock. You are told that you can have partly-damaged display item at full price!, or wait six months for the replacement to arrive. There must be other shops that manage their inventories better. Opening a back account is another challenge. I know some that have done this with their passport alone, but 3 of the 4 banks want me to also present an Alien Certificate of Registration, which costs $50 a year to get and keep current. I suppose this is another way that the Philippines uses to squeeze money out of regular visitors. I hope you are all well, and getting ready for the holiday season. Happy Thanksgiving to all the Americans, and others who appreciate the holiday. - D. B.

The Makati Property Diaries - from a newcomer to Manila ... mp I originally sent these Notes out as emails to friends in Hong Kong and elsewhere, who had expressed an interest in investing in, and maybe living in Makati or Bonafacio Global City (BGC). Makati and BGC's office skyscapers have many high-paying jobs MAKATI, as described by a newcomer, who has arrived to take the handover of a flat, and get to know the place better #1 === Hello my friends, Here's an update on my trip to Manila . Overall, it is a decent trip where I am achieving most of what I intended. . There have been some surprises, both negative and positive. The biggest surprise is how long it takes to get things done, and how almost everything seem to be left half done, or needs to be redone. I am used to HK efficiency, and the idea of efficiency here, and what is acceptable are wildly different. I might give you an example or two shortly. On the good side, Filipino people have a genuine empathy. And if they see people who need help, they will often throw themselves in and help simply out of a spirit of hospitality and generosity. (You will also find this sometimes in Hong Kong, but not with the same regularity.) The new flat has a view of Manila Bay... but you might need binoculars to see it In the opposite direction, you will find the attractions of Greenbelt... : Map ... and some very nice streets of Makati . My flat is good, as good as expected. Nevertheless, there are one or two items which need remedy. The most serious one is that the air-conditioner platform is not level. I am expecting Avida to fix this. But I do not have yet a precise time and way that it will be remedied. They seem to be handling my complaint in a professional way. But the remedy may not come as fast as I want it to. I have still not finally decided whether I will rent the flat bare, semi-furnished, or put some furniture in... or instead if I might use it myself for a few months. There are arguments in favor of each of these options, and there is no clear favored option. My present inclination is to rent it out "almost bare", but I will need to sort of what to do with the PDC's (Post-dated Cheques) that the new tenant will hand over. I expected Avida Leasing to handle the deposit of the cheques at the beginning of each month. But as of right now, this is something that they are merely "considering" to do, rather than offering it as part of the service. To give you guys some idea of the returns, I paid a little under P2.1 million for the flat, and I think it may genuinely be worth something like P2.4-2.5 million (at 22 SM and 2.4 mn, that would be P109 per SM.) My flat is on the fringe of Makati, not in the heart of it. It is about a 12-15 minutes walk from Greenbelt. and very near a smaller shopping mall called Waltermart, which also has its own cinema. But this is a mall appealing to locals, not well-healed corporate chieftains and their families, and highly paid expats, as GB does. I start out with a bare studio flat on the Fringe of Greater Manila's top CBD What rent can I achieve? P12,000 (net of association fees, but before ALC's 1/12th commission) - after the commission that's just 5.5% p.a. on a P2.4 million notional valuation. I did expect to make more than that. But on my P2.1 Mn cost, the Net yield rises to 6.28%. If I spend say P250-300k, I can probably achieve something like P6,000/ month more. After taking into account the commission to the agent, that increase in rents would amortize P250k of outfitting costs in 3.8 years. Is that a good investment? Maybe, since most of the things that I buy should last at least 3-5 years. So long as I make the right choices of what to buy. But it might be easy to spend the money badly, and turn some potential tenants off. ALC tells me they have only two flats for rent "bare" at about P12k monthly, and they have 4-5 offered at P17-18k Net, or P19-20k Gross. So leaving it bare seems likely to get a tenant more quickly. Apparently, many potential tenants already own some furniture and appliance they want to move into a flat that they would rent. As for living in the flat myself, I could do so for a year or two. But the flat is really too small for me to live there comfortably, as my own actual residence in Makati. But once furnished, it would beat staying in a sterile hotel room, and be much cheaper. Something I like is the location being reasonably close to Greenbelt, and that it has a decent mall (Waltermart) next door. Some seemingly minor things may prove important to me as a tenant, like the lack of internet in public areas, and the appallingly poor state of the sidewalks in the immediate area. The frequent train whistles, which are hear all over this part of the city (including Oriental Place, where I am as I write this), are something that I would have to get used to. So at this stage, I am thinking: if Avida Leasing (ALC) can take care of the PDC's there's a high probability that I just rent it out, as is, with only a few small changes I am planning to make. This city seems quite livable, if you have a nice residence in a good area. There are things to do. I just came back from a Sunday morning stroll to the farmer's market at Legazpi Park, and I spend most of an hour relaxing in SyCip Park (next to Legazpi) reading a paper back. This is very walkable from Orientral Place, SanLo, or Kroma - three locations a that I know well. I also attended a meeting at a Meditation Centre yesterday, and had a nice lunch with some HK friends (A-- and G---A---) yesterday at the Jazz Mall. In the morning I saw their new flat at One Central. A-- paid less than P120K per SM, and got a real bargain on that. The flat is in excellent condition, and has a good view towards the Rise. I will have to ask him to take a photo every six months or so to show the progress of construction there. I think I could live very comfortably at Kroma, and probably also at The Rise. But there's a wait of 2-4 years, respectively, before those properties that I bought will be ready for occupancy. What to do In the meantime? Should I rent out my small studio, and rent somewhere larger and closer to the heart of Makati? Or can I somehow figure out how to make every centimeter work, and somehow jam into a 22 Square meter flat? (That's just XX sf, for those who do not like metric measures.) I am trying to get the photos of Avida Towers San Lorenzo (SanLo) transferred from my mobile. If I can do that, I will send a part-2. But I thought it was better to send this message as is, and struggle with the transfer of photos later. Hope to see some of you in Makati Soon. I expect to see M-- tomorrow. He's staying very nearby. Very Best Regards, - D. B. Footnote: how delays happen AES Electric heaters - buy the (cheaper) red one, and you start out where I did PS. Here's a story - installing an electric heater - note: SanLo flats are purchased without Air Conditioners, light fixtures, or electric heaters. V-- and I went to CW Home Depot, about a kilometer from SanLo. I decided when there to buy light fixtures and an electric heater. (In hindsight, I should have bought the heater right next to me, few steps away at Wilcom, and probably for the same price.) There were various models, and I asked the sales person, which one I should get. He did not tell me what factors to think about, so I went with the one made by AEG, a German company, which matched the water heater in V--'s Oriental Place flat. I thought: this is cheaper, and if it is less powered that the others, it might save money in future electricity usage. I was comforted by the fact that the store said they would send an electrician to install it. The electrician was supposed to arrive on Monday at 11am. I waited in my non-airconditioned flat and, once I was hot and sweaty, in the building lobby almost 1 1/2 hours before giving up on him. I went to lunch. And when I returned over one hour later, the guard said: There's someone waiting for you on the podium. I went there and found the electrician - he was about three hours late! He explained there had been an unusual traffic jam - which the newspapers confirmed the next day. But three hours late, is amazingly late, without phoning someone. Maybe I haven't adjusted to "philippines time" yet. We went to the flat. And I showed him the electric heater. He immediately said: I don't think that I can install that. He checked the Circuit breaker box, and told me that my connection was 32 amperes, and the electric heater that I purchased had a maximum rating of 20 amperes. I asked him what to do, and he said, I should exchange it, and the store would send another electrician. Soon after he left, I gathered up the box to take it to the store. There was a huge traffic jam, so I decided to walk over 1km with the box under my arm in the heat. When I got to the store, they exchanged it - with me paying the difference, another 20% or so.. The appropriate model was about P7800, versus P6200 for the lower rated one. There was also a problem with the traffic going back, so I walked back with the new model under my arm. The walk was not pleasant, because there are not proper sidewalks in this part of Manila. Every property owner constructs his own sidewalk or driveway, and different heights. And there is no notion that pedestrians deserve consideration, so they will happily park their cars where a walkway might be indicated. When you have a bad ankle, this sort of obstacle course is not easy to negotiate. Pedestrians need to stay aware in Manila On Friday, just four days later, another electrician came. He was on time. This one looked at the electric heater, and the area where he was to install it and said: "I cannot install it." Shocked, I asked him: Well, why not? He said: You need an electric socket there - you have only a plate. After getting over my puzzlement, that the first electrician had not told me this, I asked him what to do. He said: You can buy a socket. I said, Can you come with me while I do that? (I did not want the buy the wrong thing a second time.) He agreed to do so. This would not have happened in HK. We walked next door to Wilcom, and I bought an electric socket, and he returned with me. That trip took an extra 15-20 minutes. But he got the thing installed, and it now works fine. I suppose the very late arrivals and unreliable time schedules do tend to create a people with more "flexibility" than you will get in a more orderly country. The story has a happy ending, But there was much time wasted. I will spare you further details of similar incidents. You may have some yourself, when you come over here. ===== LINKS: At-SanLo : on Facebook

The growing Attractions of Circuit Makati & its Pasig River location :PD : Still mostly a hole in the ground in 2015 Circuit's future is bright By mid-2017, the showroom model suggested what a "finished" Circuit Makati would look like - see post#xx, page 2 Circuit tour (Entry #4, in the Makati Property Diaries) ========== http://gogirlcafe.jennyo.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/prc.jpg Circuit is Ayala Land Intl's latest CBD development in Makati. ALI took over the old Santa Ana racetrack (see photo above), and has begun to turn it into the family-friendly entertainment area of Makati. With the traffic congestion that plagues Greater Manila, it is not easy for hard-working people of Makati's thriving main CBD along Ayala Avenue to enjoy the cultural attractions of Manila. Unpredictable travel times, mean that most of those attractions are out of reach. Arrival for the 8pm (or whatever) performance time cannot be guaranteed. Circuit and its planned transport enhancements will change that. With the dedicated bus lanes that Ayala is planning, it should be possible to make a predictable journey from North Makati to Circuit inside 30 minutes (for example*), and from the center of Ayala station within 40 minutes (perhaps). This will enhance the cultural experience of Makati, and also make Circuit an attractive - and fun - place to live, with easy access to the high-paying jobs in the main financial district. Riverside factories have been shuttered. Eventually, as the Pasig River (above, near Rockwell) gets more fully cleaned up, the appeal of living next to this body of water should increase too. One day, you may even see enhanced use of ferries from nearby areas like Rockwell. Circuit's cultural attractions will include a 400 -seater black box arena/theater, and smaller playhouse, as well as the already popular outdoor shell musical venue. There will also be cinemas and a shopping mall. So Circuit should be one of the lively places to live. Restaurants are already opening, and two floors of restaurants and shops are beginning to fill in, as restaurant diners and shopkeepers take advantage of Ayala's temporary bargain-rent policy (with short term discounts on rents of up to 50%) to launch their restaurants. http://static.rappler.com/images/Ayala-Land-Circuit Makati -birdseye-isolated-day.jpg 18 months ago when I first saw the Circuit area, it was not easy to imagine how it might look when it was complete. No buildings were finished, and the model was mostly a map. It showed where buildings were planned, but gave very little idea of what most of them would look like. Ayala has unparalleled experience in launching successful new CBD's. It is beginning to be apparent that they have done it again. The two first residential Towers, Solstice 1 and 2 are underway. Presently, the first tower has its foundations in place up to the 8th floor. That is where the amenities such as the gym and swimming pool will be. Solstice Tower 1 is expected to be completed only in late 2018/early 2019. http://www.ayalalandalveo.com/uploads/4/8/7/5/48751973/published/1404524.png?1484318059 Ayala has decided to give the area a good head start by making Circuit a popular and restaurant destination. The obvious strategy is to enhance the value of the flats by making the place come alive, and showing potential tenants the quality of live that is on offer at their doorstep. http://propertymart.ph/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Philippines-Circuit-Makati-Performing-Circuit-Lane-water-feature.jpg Circuit Lane will have a water feature, but no direct connection with Pasig River water Most impressive, in terms of creating the lively fabric of the place, is the main walkway and restaurant area, called Circuit Lane, which will have over 20 shops and restaurants, as well as a outdoor performance area next to the so-called Spanish steps. Bands are already using this area. An event under the stars was being prepared for the evening of the Sunday when I visited the place. There were plenty of restaurant goers and curious people walking around, so I could imagine the band having a good audience. Without taking an actual count, it seemed that on the ground level, about 1/3 of the restaurants or shops had already opened, another 1/3 had named tenants who were preparing to open, and about 1/3 were still available for rent. Most of the shops on the second floor were still available for rent. One or two second floor restaurants, including those with the best views towards the Makati skyline were already open with customers. The shopping mall with cinemas will probably not be completed for some years. And it will be next to the office complex called Stiles that ALVEO is presently selling at prices in the region of P 140-145,000 psm. When I first saw Circuit, I was surprised to see that prices were only about 10% under the P120-130k levels that were available for Kroma and Lerato in early 2014. I wound up buying a high-floor flat at Kroma for about P 126k per SM. And both Kroma and Lerato are now (nearly) sold out. Open flats, when they get them, are sold at P130-140k on lower floors of those buildings. Prices for Solstice have not been increased so fast, so present prices of P114 - 120k (= HKD XXX per sf) now look like bargains, especially now that ALI has sold out near all of its stock of Makati flats, and other developers are routinely offering P150K for flats in buildings like Greenbelt Hamilton. In Solstice, ALVEO is selling 2 BR for P 9 million and up, and 1 BR of about 58 SM and up, for P 6.5 million and higher. 2BR are expected to appeal to couples with children, and the lack of schools in the immediate area could be a concern right now. Perhaps that requirement will be addressed by the developer or educational entrepreneurs later. The 1 BR flats might be a better buy. They may be easy to rent to single professionals and couples who want to be close to Circuit's restaurants and entertainments. As the offices are completed, there will also be jobs in the area, with an easy walk to one's job. The area should also be good for outdoor sports like jogging and bicycling, since it is less threatened by traffic and pollution from cars. The center area of Circuit Lane should remain forever from from cars. Some Makati residents dream of a nearby oasis with fewer cars. That's what Circuit should be. On my trip to Makati in early 2014, I met a young Irish IT professional. He was sitting outside Starbucks in front of Columns Ayala. I asked him how he liked living there. He said the easy walk to work, less than 10 minutes away was the key reason he lived there. As we watched the traffic circle around the island that is Columns Ayala, he said, "on weekends, I long to escape from all this", with a gesture towards the traffic. But it required at least two hours sitting in horrible traffic to get away. Maybe if he lived in Circuit, he would not have the same urge to escape Makati and its attractions. ======== Footnote: *I think the transport link will be a key factor – the time frames I gave above are my own estimates of times that seem acceptable. These need to be confirmed. Ayala has announced plans to have dedicated bus lines running back and forth on South Avenue, which is the direct connection between Circuit and Ayala Avenue in Makati. The street will be renamed Ayala Avenue extension. I was told that there are some negotiations to me completed with Makati city officials, and nothing would be announced before next year's election, in Q2-2016. === Circuit, and Makati's CBD : : http://www.ayalalandalveo.com/makati-central-business-district.html Source: The Makati Diaries : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20449 HeyPlaces : Circuit Makati : : http://heyplaces.ph/0593710/Circuit_Makati_by_Alveo

GETTING ON THE ROAD BACK TO MORE EQUALITY ?? Some of the Factors that have drawn wealth and power to NYC may have hurt Philadelphia But the trend against equality that emerged may now be reversing for Philly, as the gap became too big, and with Philly's strategic position on in the North Eastern corridor, "arbitrage-like" opportunities (to save money) are becoming apparent Here's an excerpt from an article which talks about how inequality grew and grew... Why the Economic Fates of America’s Cities DivergedPlaces like St. Louis and New York City were once similarly prosperous. Then, 30 years ago, the United States turned its back on the policies that had been encouraging parity. ...Eventually, further financial deregulation, combined with enormous subsidies and bailouts for banks that had become “too big to fail,” led to the eclipse of even once strong regional money centers such as Philadelphia and St. Louis by a handful of elite cities such as New York and London, bringing the geography of modern finance full circle back to the patterns prevailing in the Gilded Age. . . . For both of these reasons, success in this sector now increasingly requires being physically located where large concentrations of incumbents are seeking “innovation through acquisition,” and where there are supporting phalanxes of highly specialized legal and financial wheeler-dealers. Back in the 1970s, a young entrepreneur like Bill Gates was able to grow a new high-tech firm into a Fortune 500 company in his hometown of Seattle, which at the time was little better off than Detroit and Cleveland—a depopulating, worn-out manufacturing city, labeled by The Economist as “the city of despair”—are today. . Now, a young entrepreneur as smart and ambitious as the young Gates is most likely aiming to sell his company to a high-tech goliath—or will have to settle for doing so. Sure, high-tech entrepreneurs still emerge in the hinterland, and often start promising companies there. But to succeed they need to cash out, which means that they typically need to go where they’ll be in the deal flow of patent trading and mergers and acquisition, which means an already-established hub of high-tech “innovation” like Silicon Valley, or, ironically, today’s Seattle. They may also need to maintain a Washington office, the better to protect and expand the policies that have allowed the concentration of wealth and power in a few imperial cities, including intellectual-property protections, minimal antitrust enforcement, and financial regulations that benefit behemoth banks. The spectacular rise in the affluence of the D.C. metro area since the 1970s belies the idea that “deregulation” has brought a triumph of open and competitive markets. Instead, it is the result of a boom in what libertarians in other contexts like to call “rent seeking,” or the enrichment of a few through the manipulation of government and the cornering of markets. Inequality, an issue politicians talked about hesitantly, if at all, a decade ago, is now a central focus of candidates in both parties. The terms of the debate, however, are about individuals and classes: the elite versus the middle, the 1 percent versus the 99 percent. That’s fair enough. But the language currently used to describe inequality doesn’t capture the way it is manifesting geographically. Growing inequality between and among regions and metro areas is obvious. But it is almost completely absent from the current political conversation. This absence would have been unfathomable to earlier generations of Americans; for most of this country’s history, equalizing opportunity among different parts of the country was at the center of politics. The resulting policies led to the greatest mass prosperity in human history. Yet somehow, about 30 years ago, America forgot its own history. == > MORE: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/11/cities-economic-fates-diverge/417372/?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email

Hi Guys I think you might enjoy this podcast as much as I do. It focuses on why three suburbs of Philadelphia, and why they are appealing to young families and investors. Towards the end, there is also some talk about the spreading gentrification in Philadelphia itself, and they mention areas like Liberty North, Fishtown and Kensington Interview with Johnny Sanphillippo MP3: http://shoutengine.com/StrongTownsPodcast/StrongTownsPodcast-0261-johnny-sanphillippo-13766.mp3 I hope you like this as much as I do - I am a regular listener of the Strong Towns podcasts > http://www.strongtowns.org/podcast/ I hope you like this as much as I do - I am a regular listener of the Strong Towns podcasts > http://www.strongtowns.org/podcast/ BTW, you might want to put in your diary the next CNU (Congress of New Urbanism) meeting. I think it will be May 2016, and it will definitely be in Detroit. I will give an exact date later.

Third Quarter Office Market Select East and SE Asia cities, and expected direction over 2015-2017 City--------- : -Rent : vac. : 2015 -16 - 17 : Hong Kong : 124.7 : 3.3% : Dn : Up : Up : Manila----- : $25.1 : 4.1%: Dn : Dn : Dn : Singapore- : $77.9 : 4.4% : Dn : Up : Dn : Bangkok--- : $28.2 : 5.0% : Dn : Dn : Dn : Tokyo-------: $84.0 : 5.0% : Dn : == : Up : Beijing------ : $58.0 : 7.1% : Up : Up : Dn : Ho Chi Minh: $28.2 : 9.0% : Dn : Up : == : Shanghai--- : $52.8 : 9.7% : Up : Up : Up : Seoul-------- : $?3.1 : 9.9% : Dn : Dn : Dn : --- Others: Jakarta 11.0%; Taipei 17.7%; Guangzhou 20.0% Manilas office vacancy rate may shoot up, since there are a large number of projects in the pipeline with completions in 2016, 2017, and beyond Meantime... Avida has begun its last residential project in BGC* selling at P 150K per SM. That's up from P 89K per SM - back in 2010. The new project is called Avida Towers Turf, and is at 9th Avenue. There are only 18 units per floor, which is lower density for Avidas class of property Avida Turf is Avidas 8th residential or office project in BGC *It is the last project for which they have acquired land, and land prices have now climbed to levels, where Avida is no longer buying