drbubb

A very Bullish Gold chart - based on Welles Wilder, some lines added “The $4,700 gold projection is a delta long-term #1 target, which is where the biggest moves take place. This chart ... also shows that there have been three major turning points so far in gold’s 16-year bull market. I expect this $4,700 target will be reached in 2016" source- KWN : http://kingworldnews.com/60-year-market-veteran-warns-elite-may-make-a-terrifying-move-as-they-lose-control-and-gold-soars-to-5000-in-2016/ The Stage is set for a monumental Crash (in bonds, etc) What makes today’s negative interest rate environment so worrying is this; to the extent that demand is growing at all in the world economy, it seems again to be almost entirely dependent on rising levels of debt. The financial crisis was meant to have exploded the credit bubble once and for all, but there's very little sign of it. Rising public indebtedness has taken over where households and companies left off. And in terms of wider credit expansion, emerging markets have simply replaced Western ones. The wake-up call of the financial crisis has gone largely unheeded. == > http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/11569329/Jeremy-Warner-Negative-interest-rates-put-world-on-course-for-biggest-mass-default-in-history.html

(this suggests another area to investigate) Center City elevated rail park now on fast track May 7, 2015 / 60 Comments Rendering of the Reading Viaduct park above 13th Street. AFTER YEARS of talk by elected officials, city boosters and everyday citizens about how great it would be to have a green park on a portion of the abandoned Reading Railroad elevated viaduct, the idea appears to be on the fast track. City Council's Committee on Public Property and Public Works will hold a hearing Monday to discuss a bill introduced last week by Councilman Mark Squilla that would authorize the city to acquire 1/4-mile of the rail property now owned by SEPTA. "We think it's a great project, not only for the neighborhood but for the entire city," Squilla said yesterday. "This is the perfect time to do this. This will also create an area where we can get more development, hopefully add more businesses in the area and raise our tax base. The whole thing about our school district is, how do we get more funding?" Squilla introduced the bill on behalf of Mayor Nutter's administration, said mayoral spokesman Mark McDonald. "It's a great start to bringing back that viaduct," McDonald said. "There's obviously way more [land]; this is only one small segment. But this is a wonderful start." The property, in the Callowhill neighborhood just north of Center City, runs from Broad Street southeast across 13th and 12th streets to Callowhill Street. Plans call for the rail property - shuttered since 1984 - to be transformed into a vibrant park with walking paths, landscaping, lighting, seating and gathering spaces, similar to refurbished elevated railways in New York, Paris and elsewhere. The $9 million project would be funded by a combination of state, city, foundation and private sources, according to the Center City District, a leading force behind the effort. SEPTA spokeswoman Jerri Williams said the property would be leased to the Center City District to make the renovations. The transit authority's board must approve the deal first, she said. Once the park is completed, the city would purchase it for $1 from SEPTA, according to Squilla's bill. The project is being referred to as the first phase of the rail park, given that the derelict 19th century Reading viaduct consists of 4 1/2 acres. Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20150507_Center_City_elevated_rail_park_now_on_fast_track.html#KApocOSXzYlSgKuA.99

Being a DEVELOPER 1.01 Here;s the other Anderson, John, talking about some challenges faced by developers CNU 20 - Pro Formas for the Rest of Us To be successful as a Developer, you need to control at least ONE of the Following 1. Land 2. Capital 3. Tenant 4. Entitlement Costs: Land + "Bricks and sticks" should never be more than 70% of what you charge, and that's to make a 10% profit ... you need the rest for "indirect construction", Marketing and solving other problems Building Example: / Sales Price ... 100% Finished Lot ------------- : 20% Direct Construction----- : 50% Indirect Construction, Sales and Marketing, Finance, G&A, O'head : 18% Profit target-------------- : 10% Contingency-------------- : 2% Often more than one developer: Capital partner and Operating partner

INCREMENTAL Investments often work better than Big Plans (because they are generated out of real needs, not a flashy planning process) Monte Anderson understand how to build strong towns... - here's a video he narrated Published on Dec 15, 2014 The Little City. A short story written, produced and directed by David Harter If you've never had a chance to listen to James Howard Kunstler, the talk he did for CNU-22 / Buffalo in 2014 might be a good place to start - and William Fulton is also good But skip ahead to xx minutes, and miss the over-long introduction CNU 22: James Howard Kunstler & William Fulton Published on Jun 28, 2014 James Howard Kunstler and William Fulton, two of the world's top urban thinkers according to Planetizen.com, take a provocative look at the future of Buffalo and the NY region. Fulton talks about how his hometown of Auburn was ruined by urban "renewal" and a new highway cutting through it. JHK also talks about the tyranny of the age of cars. A necessary part of restoring our cities and town, may be to put cars in their proper place, BEHIND pedestrians, mass transport and walkability In the Q&A, JHK says: "Everything organised at a gigantic scale is going to fail. We need to reorganize at a local level."

The Death of the Green Energy Movement The green energy movement in America is dead. May it rest in peace. No, a majority of American energy over the next 20 years is not going to come from windmills and solar panels. One important lesson to be learned from the green energy fad’s rapid and expensive demise is that central planning doesn’t work. . . . What crushed green energy was the boom in shale oil and gas along with the steep decline in the price of fossil fuel that few saw coming just a few years ago. A new International Energy Agency report concedes that green energy is in fast retreat and is getting crushed by “the recent drop in fossil fuel prices.” It finds that the huge price advantage for oil and natural gas means “fossil plants still dominate recent (electric power) capacity additions.” This wasn’t supposed to happen. > More: http://greenenergyinvesting.net/the-death-of-the-green-energy-movement

One of the GEI readers has passed me these thoughtful comments by email: = QUOTE = Here is a list of my comments: 1. Cheap property prices often are correlated to high crime rates. Please check https://www.phillypolice.com/crime-maps-stats/ 2. When property prices are cheap, this will attract those who are in lower income brackets to rent (and to buy?). You may recall the research I shared with you on the capital of one of the Carolinas, the same situation occurs: that city was left with a high percentage of blacks (who were also chasing jobs with the state government, or just an affordable place to live.) You may like to check the demographic profiles of the people living near the Amtrak train station. Historically, people live near main train stations are poor people. Mugging is a normal activity around main train stations. 3. You may like to check the closing hours of shopping malls and supermarkets in Philly downtown , and near the Amtrak train station. You may find that the closing hours may be 6 pm during weekdays, ? pm on Saturdays and 5 pm on Sundays. That means the downtown is "dead" at night. Who wants to walk around the downtown at night? It would be a good target to be mugged or killed by another person (homicide). If that is the case, property prices will NOT rise at a good rate as seen in other big cities. = Unquote = It was much appreciated, and I am happy to share these comments with others. Of course, I like it even more when people sign in here and post their own comments

NORTH District - above Lehigh Avenue, includes much open land (Note: the 2035 Plan for this district is not released yet) FAIRHILL / North Philadelphia Station Area (Amtrac and SEPTA) 2900 North Broad Street Broad St. and Glenwood Avenue Philadelphia, PA 19132 Annual Station Revenue (2014) : $33,582 Annual Station Ridership (2014) : 644 === === Located on Broad Street approximately three miles north of City Hall, the North Philadelphia station, which consists of two hi-level platforms with canopies, is adjacent to the Fairhill neighborhood. The immediate area is well served by various modes of transportation, although they are not integrated into one facility. Amtrak’s North Philadelphia station is also served by the Trenton Line of the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority’s (SEPTA) commuter rail system; within easy walking distance is a platform stop for the Chestnut Hill West Line. The Broad Street Subway is accessible via entrances at the corner of Broad Street and Glenwood Avenue, and multiple bus lines also run through the area. Two former station buildings stand on either side of the embankment that carries the Northeast Corridor through the area. . . . The Fairhill area around the North Philadelphia station sprouted factories and worker housing starting in the 1870s and continuing into the first decade of the 20th century. Manufacturers chose sites along the neighborhood’s three rail lines, which came to define its boundaries: the Connecting Railroad on the north, the Reading on the west, and the Philadelphia, Germantown, and Norristown to the east. Many of these factories were built with their own spurs so that rail cars could enter their property for more efficient loading. Times from N. Philadelphia (zone-1) SEPTA to: +C : 30th St Station---- : 11 mins : 11 mins +C : Suburban Station : 05 mins : 16 mins +C : Jefferson Station- : 05 mins : 21 mins +C : Temple University : 04 mins : 25 mins > SEPTA schedule : http://www.septa.org/schedules/rail/w/TRE_1.html Textile mills, especially carpet manufacturers, congregated in Fairhill. They were much smaller and more versatile than their counterparts in New England and could quickly respond to changing fashions and market demand. Philadelphia became known nationwide for its carpets, which were usually woven in long strips that were then sewn together to cover a floor. Larger carpets similar to modern-day area rugs were also produced, but they were more expensive. In addition to textiles manufacturers, the neighborhood hosted brick, coal, and lumber yards, iron foundries, and boiler works. Well known companies included S.L. Allen, maker of Flexible Flyer sleds, and the National Biscuit Company, better known as Nabisco. The old Fair Hill estate owned by the Norris family was divided up and sold to developers who constructed block after block of modest row houses, most of which were rented or purchased by workers in the neighborhood factories. Lehigh Avenue, the area’s principal east-west thoroughfare, boasted a Gothic-inspired high school with crenellated towers and gargoyles; a gleaming white Carnegie library resembling a Greek temple; numerous churches in various architectural styles; shops; and a trolley line. . . . The stop name was changed from Germantown Junction to North Philadelphia. In the following decades, the station served a growing population in the surrounding neighborhoods. N. Broad Street above Center City became the nucleus of the city’s nouveau riche community, which was shunned by the members of old Philadelphia society who had settled around Rittenhouse Square. Mansions in a variety of architectural styles were erected by immigrants and others who had succeeded in business, and new clubs and concert halls were built to fulfill their needs for cultural institutions that could compete with those of the old Philadelphians. In the 1920s, the intersection of N. Broad Street and Lehigh Avenue nurtured a collection of automobile-oriented businesses such as machine shops. A nine-storey assembly plant constructed by the Ford Motor Company in 1910 still stands at northwestern corner of the intersection. North Philadelphia also became a hub of the city’s sporting life, hosting three major stadiums on the west side of N. Broad Street. The first was erected in 1887 but rebuilt in 1895 after a fire. Later known as Baker Bowl, it was home to the Philadelphia Phillies National League baseball team and also hosted Negro League games. The cantilevered design of the second version allowed for unobstructed sight-lines that set a precedent for future ballparks. In the 1930s, the nascent Eagles football club used the stadium. Shibe Park opened in 1909 on the north side of the main line and was home base for the Philadelphia Athletics team of the American League. Post-World War II, Fairhill’s industries faded in the face of national and international competition, and the neighborhood fell on hard economic times. During the 1980s, the city and Amtrak attempted to revitalize the empty station, but nothing came of the efforts. In 1999, a $7 million project resulted in the renovation of the historic North Philadelphia station and its conversion into a retail space. To the east, a small strip mall was constructed, and it visually references the train station through details including balustrades and decorative arches. To the west, on the far side of the former Reading Railroad tracks, a supermarket was built. With its excellent transit connections via intercity and commuter rail and local bus and subway services, the area around the North Philadelphia station is poised for revival. The city has identified it as a key sub-area in its greater vision for a renewed North Broad Street. Amtrak’s Keystone Service is financed in part through funds made available by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of Transportation == > more history: http://www.greatamericanstations.com/Stations/PHN === === LINK to here :: http://tinyurl.com/Philly-Hood As if left "fallow" for a while longer, this area does not yet have its own Future Plan in the Philly-2035 Masterplan > http://phila2035.org/home-page/district/north/north-map-photo-gallery/ >> Go to; Lower North plan Neighborhoods: Fairhill, West Fairhill, St. Hugh, Tioga, Allegheny West, Nicetown, Hunting Park, Juniata Park, Harrowgate, Feltonville and a portion of Kensington. Key Issues: This district is situated to the north of Lehigh Ave. and west of Kensington Ave. Neighborhood revitalization efforts are responding to multiple urban ills: unemployment, poverty, abandonment, drugs and crime. Planning for large industrial areas is a key issue. The Hunting Park East industrial area is expected to remain industrial in character, while the Hunting Park West industrial area has a plan calling for a mix of new uses on land vacated by the Budd and Tasty Baking companies. Other issues: expanding and enhancing open space near Tacony Creek, reuse of abandoned railways, and maintenance of traditional neighborhood commercial corridors at 22nd & Lehigh, Broad & Erie, and 5th & Lehigh. Rail stations at Broad & Glenwood and 22nd & Allegheny create opportunities for higher density, mixed-use development. It is important to support the work of community development organizations while also addressing the needs of under-represented neighborhoods. > http://phila2035.org/home-page/district/north/

WHAT Is Needed to make Transport Oriented Development happen? There are many barriers, and it is important (for potential investors) to understand them. The developer does not want to be loaded up with too many headaches, especially those like: re-educating the city planners, changing zoning laws, and reducing (unneeded) parking requirements for projects near transport. A FASCINATING CONVERSATION / "simple techniques" two successful developers think about "Emerging Small Scale Development" This is from Strong Towns, and I find it fascinating and highly relevant to the strategic issues addressed by this thread John Anderson and Monte Anderson at CNU 23 Charles Marohn / published on May 02, 2015 MP3 : http://shoutengine.com/StrongTownsPodcast/StrongTownsPodcast-0234-john-anderson-and-monte-anderson-at-cnu-23-8740.mp3 John Anderson and Monte Anderson (no relation, except in good looks) talk about how small, incremental development can save the world and make a nice living for the entrepreneurial startup builder trying to transform their city. > http://shoutengine.com/StrongTownsPodcast/john-anderson-and-monte-anderson-at-cnu-23-8740 Anderson's Mission is expressed well here: "I believe we can change the way wealth transfers - and help preserve Middle Class wealth, by helping people to hold onto this real estate... You don't want the local people to be fighting with Starbucks over the ownership of strategic real estate; you want to locals to own it already.... The outsiders cannot 'Save the Town' on their own. The local people have to have a stake too." Monte Anderson : Video, about how he created a Gorilla movement (for new developers) in Texas. ( We need new models to show people that development can create wealth for the many.)

SHORT Q&A - this was originally posted on another chatboard ========== Thanks, G---. Those are all relevant questions, which I looked into thoroughly before buying my condo. "What about other issues such as:" -ownership by foreigners (foreigners cannot own land, but they CAN OWN up to 40% of the condos in a residential or office project) -legal issues related to ownership (Pretty straight forward, if you stick to buying condos. There are some ways that you can own land, by setting up a 40% owned corporation, etc. But those are too complicated for me. And I do not want to search for a Filipino partner.) -capital gains and other taxes (these are high... but manageable. For instance, there is a 6% "capital gains" tax that you pay when you sell, if you sell at a profit. Confusingly, this is 6% of the Sales price - ie 6% of the Gross amount, not 6% of the profit. Fortunately, my property seems to have appreciated more than this in the first year. There are taxes on rental income too, depending on the size of the income.) -stamp duty (lower than HK) -management fees (Though property prices in Manila are like 1/5th to 1/10th those of HK, monthly mgmt fees are "surprisingly" high in the better run properties in Makati area - like 75% of HK. Electricity prices are also higher than HK. I may live in my place when it completes in late 2017, so I may not need to find a tenant. If I do rent it out, there are various options that I am exploring. My place should be very easy to rent, given the prime location.) -typhoons and build quality (Typhoons are more of an issue in Philippines than HK, but they are issues in both places. The biggest issue seems to be flooding. So take care that you do not buy in a flood area. The issue is height above sealevel, and the capacity of the drainage system. As for build quality, stick to one of the Top 3 or 4 builders. I bought from Ayalaland, which has a first class reputation. There are two or three others that are also considered reliable. But look into reputation before you buy. A first class builder should also be able to deliver to you, a condo without any Title issues.) If you want to know more, send me a Personal Message. I may even be able to invite you to a presentation by Ayala in HK, at the end of May... if there is still room

West Philly / 52nd St. : another area which may have great potential... PROVIDED they re-open the station that was closed back in 1980. The Future Of 52nd Street, Seen From The Inside March 20, 2014 | by Stephen Ives | Vantage | 52nd Street, commercial corridors, economic development, gentrification, West Philadelphia Past patriotic reminders of West Philly’s Main Street, from before SEPTA’s reconstruction of the el at 52nd Street station In the heart of every city neighborhood and small town in America is a Main Street. Everyone’s back yard, picnic table, after-school hangout, Saturday mainstay. In West Philadelphia, just look down at the sidewalk medallions for confirmation: “52nd Street, West Philly’s Main Street.” For decades the mile-long strip of 52nd from just north of the Market-Frankford Line south to Baltimore Avenue has been the heart of business, culture, and soul in West Philadelphia. And though its status as such has changed little since the advent of The El, its complexion has. The forces that worked to changed the social landscape of the strip decades ago are once again knocking on the door with possibilities that current tenants and residents aren’t necessarily welcoming with open arms. The “Penntrification” effect that has taken hold of much of West Philadelphia seems poised to do what once may have been unthinkable—cross the hard and fast psychological boundary of 52nd Street, a place that for me was always where ‘home’ began. The nexus of West Philly’s Main Street: under the el at 52nd & Market | Photo: Stephen Ives Having lived in various parts of West Philadelphia for almost my entire life, I’ve watched slow but steady waves of change wash over places that for years seemed to be unchangeable. I grew up accustomed to the grit, the lack of polish, and the general types of sights that people who understand city living on only the most cursory level would expect to see. In my childhood, the red awnings and street side tables of 52nd Street weren’t a threatening hodgepodge of grifters and shady merchants. They were just part of the landscape in the same place where we made weekend stops to buy shoes and fish. That place, though, doesn’t exist anymore. The Stacy Adams store with its impossible-to-miss sign is gone. Punchey’s, with its ever-present scent of shortening and trays of breaded seafood that were staples of my youth, exists only as an empty storefront and weathered sign. Indeed much of the strip now stands as painted over memories. Young natives of West Philadelphia know a 52nd Street that has little difference from other commercial corridors in poorer parts of the city. There’s nothing particularly distinctive about the street beyond the volume of activity and the architectural quality of some of its buildings. There aren’t a tremendous amount of long time businesses still there, something generally indicative of the overall health of a commercial area. Having recently moved from another part of the city back to West Philly, just off of 52nd Street, I started getting reacquainted with it, and that was the first thing that that I noticed. A decade ago I lamented the loss of Big George’s Restaurant on Spruce Street, one of the few decent places in the city to get a plate of grits. What exists now—take-out delis, hair salons, convenience stores—is what fills the void left by mom and pop businesses who provided daily essentials (and non-essentials). In some cases, the replacements are arguably as bad as nothing at all. Bushfire, built as Locust Theatre in 1914 | Photo: Stephen Ives One of the first places I noticed along 52nd Street in my first few days there was the Urban Art Gallery at Delancey Street, owned and operated by Kalphonse Morris. Plainly visible from the storefront window, the paintings inside drew my attention. Certainly a different kind of visual offering from the neighborhood standard and that was precisely what Morris had in mind when he opened the space last April—wanting to bring “beauty, culture, and a new style” to place that sorely needed it. We were both of a mind on the general state of the strip. The character that once existed had long since been paved over. With the exception of The Bushfire Theatre and Malcolm X Park, no true landmarks remain and in his opinion the landscape there now is “worth losing” if the changes at the doorstep bring entities that thrive and add vitality to the neighborhood. But this potential for change obviously stirs up conflicting feelings for long time neighbors. While revived storefronts, a new assortment of businesses, and a larger base of shoppers and residents add to a place that is stagnant compared to its glory days, what then becomes of what currently is? If it’s true that so much of what made 52nd Street a distinctive place is now gone then would anything truly be washed away by the incoming tide? Of course any real discussion about neighborhood growth Philadelphia is always going to have elements of race and class—the G-word—and keenly so here. The ever expanding sphere of influence that the University of Pennsylvania has in West Philadelphia has been making westward progress for as far back as I’ve been paying attention. Six-figure housing prices and overnight building renovations on blocks that haven’t seen a sheet a drywall in years tell the tale. The residents of my own building, a racial mix that certainly would not have set foot here a decade ago, are leading indicators. The old meets the new on Rue 52 | Photo: Stephen Ives It’s a story that plays out in several different parts of Philadelphia, from Point Breeze to Kensington to Germantown. There’s always a level of discomfort felt by the people who already live and work in a place that someone from outside of their world has declared ‘the next horizon,’ and though no advertisements proclaim 52nd Street the next bountiful frontier, the sense that someday it will be hangs slight and still, but unmistakably, in the air. Some say bring it on ... > continues : http://hiddencityphila.org/2014/03/the-future-of-52nd-street-from-the-inside/ THIS MAP is likely to include the main area of investment focus, especially within 2-3 stations of 30th Street. > Larger Map : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SEPTA_Regional_Rail_stations#/media/File:SEPTA_Regional_Rail_Diagram.svg Paoli /Thorndale Line - on SEPTA 27 stops (28 w/closed 52nd st): ++ includes (Villanova, Bryn Mawr, Haverford) : Merion : Overbrook : 52nd Street (closed 1980) TO: 30th Street Station (and on to ...) + then, extends to Suburban Station / TO: Jefferson Station (and on to AMTRAC) === Wiki: 52nd Street is a closed train station that was located at the intersection of North 52nd Street & Landsdowne Avenue[1] (just north of Lancaster Avenue [uS-30]) in the West Philadelphia section of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. It was built by the Pennsylvania Railroad (PRR) at the junction of its Main Line and its Schuylkill Branch. Today, these lines are the SEPTA Regional Rail Paoli/Thorndale Line and Cynwyd Line, respectively. At 52nd Street, the Main Line is on an embankment at-grade, while the Schuylkill Branch is on an elevated structure including a Parker through truss spanning 388 feet (118 m) over the Main Line on an extreme skew.[2] A lit sign informed inbound passengers which platform the next train to Center City, Philadelphia would depart from. Only a few trains in each direction stopped at this station, mostly serving reverse commuters heading out to jobs in the Main Line suburbs in the morning and returning home to the city in the evening. Through merger and bankruptcy, the station and the trains serving it passed from the PRR to the Penn Central to Conrail, which abandoned all service to the station in 1980. > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/52nd_Street_%28Pennsylvania_Railroad_station%29

LOWER NORTH has a new flagship TOD development of its own: Paseo Verde (near Temple Univ. Station) This development is in the LOWER NORTH district of the 2035 Plan, which is dominated by Temple University, which provides about 25% of the jobs. The northern boundary of this district is Lehigh and the North Philadelphia station Year : Population 1990 : 114,317 2000 : 095,029 2010 : 095,176 2040 : 112,000 - per year estimated rise : +16,824 / 30 = 560 people per annum SEPTA serves Lower North with 16 bus lines, one trolley, four Market Frankford Line and four Broad Street Line subway stops. Since 60 percent of residents either don’t drive or choose not to, maintaining a robust transit network is critical to the district’s future. This district hosts several transit hubs that serve over 5,000 riders per weekday. They are: Broad and Lehigh, Broad and Cecil B Moore, Broad and Girard, Front and Girard, and the Temple University Regional Rail station. The Temple University station alone hosts 7,000 riders per day, the fourth busiest regional rail stop in the system. Temple University is the final, Northern-most station on the Media/Elwyn (R3) Regional rail line. > > SEPTA Trains : http://www.septa.org/schedules/rail/index.html Philly.com reports, the Goldenberg Group has started construction on a $100 million student apartment building next to Temple University on the site of the former John Wanamaker Middle School with a 2014 completion date. The original plan was to renovate the school into student apartments, with community space and a charter school for the Bright Hope Baptist Church, currently located across the street. The Bright Hope Baptist Church still remains part of the project as an equity partner with a 10% stake, money they say they will use to fund a new charter school. Jonathan Rose's : Affordable housing project in North Philly, next to transit:: Transit-oriented development (TOD) in Eastern North Philadelphia is nearing completion originally posted on December 13, 2012 Paseo Verde / at Temple University Station (9th & Berks?) : Paseo Verde is a model Transit Oriented Development, located directly adjacent to the SEPTA Regional Rail Temple University Train Station. The station is the fourth busiest stop in the City, providing a 5 minute ride to Center City and connections to Philadelphia's regional stations. The inspiring goal of this community is to provide a healthy living environment for residents through sustainable practices, as well as cost savings through effective reduction in energy use... Paseo Verde consists of 67, one and two-bedroom apartments with a range of amenities such as off-street parking, fitness center, business center, community room, landscaped terraces, community garden, and ground-floor retail. Add to that an award-winning contemporary design, green technology and a happening Philadelphia location and you have the community of the future that you can live in right now! There are also 53 apartments available for residents earning an annual income below $68,000 (based on family size) Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a term that refers to the concept of building high-density development near public transportation. TOD is meant to encourage use of the nearest public transportation nodes by making homes, offices, retail, and schools within a reasonable walking : > https://philadelphiaheights.wordpress.com/2012/12/13/transit-oriented-development-in-eastern-north-philadelphia-is-nearing-completion/ PV website : http://www.paseoverdeapts.com/ Here's what was built: But there's a challenge... the way that some folks respond to gentrification: Gentrification: Racial violence against urban pioneers

What is Transport Oriented Development (TOD)? These Videos and Links will help to explain A transit-oriented development (TOD): ...is a mixed-use residential and commercial area designed to maximize access to public transport, and often incorporates features to encourage transit ridership. A TOD neighborhood typically has a center with a transit station or stop (train station, metro station, tram stop, or bus stop), surrounded by relatively high-density development with progressively lower-density development spreading outward from the center. TODs generally are located within a radius of one-quarter to one-half mile (400 to 800 m) from a transit stop, as this is considered to be an appropriate scale for pedestrians, thus solving the last mile problem > wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit-oriented_development My Personal vision: The theme here is what is called "Transport-Oriented Development" or TOD. The idea here is to find neighborhoods which are still cheap, and where people can easily live without cars. In effect, instead of "wasting" money on automobiles, which are likely to get more and more expensive, people can (eventually) invest their money in their own homes, and improving their neighborhoods. I wanted to see this happen decades ago - IAnd the youngers generations are finally embracing this idea in a big way. At long last! I think this trend will help Philly, as it follows other cities like NYC, Boston, and London down the "gentrification" path. The jobs are coming back, as new skyscapers are being built, and people demand more control over their own lives by investing in their local communities. I have seen it work in those other cities, and I think the trend is now quickly spreading to some old cities like Philly, which already have the transport infrastructure Help me to do this research. I cannot do it all on my own, and it is good karma to share, right? This trend is now very strong, though the recent drop in Crude Oil prices may have slowed the trend somewhat. Brent Crude -- 3 years - OILB-all-data / Brent: $67.41 : OILB: $ Perhaps this creates a buying opportunity (in well-located properties) for shrewd investors (?) . Smart Growth and Transit-Oriented Development Published on Jan 9, 2013 The best way to solve our transportation challenges is to design our communities in ways that do not create them. This documentary features a series of interviews with planners, local government officials, developers and citizens. In addition, I traveled to Burlington VT, Boulder CO, Portland OR and Washington "Live, work and play... in a neighborhood that is more close-knit" (ie requires less use of cars) === === WOW ! PLEASE SAY HELLO There have been many hits here, since I set up this thread a few days ago. Why don't some of the (new) readers try joining GEI, and give me some comments on what you like, or don't like about this thread and this website. I would really appreciate it Here's how to join GEI : see post #2 on the following thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19143 (note: for favorite b**d use: "Admiral Byrd")

Philadelphia Historical Neighborhoods, open to Transport-Oriented Development Philly may be the perfect place to look for transport-oriented development targets, at bargain prices. This map highlights its cheapness, and Philadelphia's strategic location in the Eastern Corridor Philly as a whole is not only CHEAPER than NYC, Boston, Washington, etc. It also has higher yields. Fortunately, in seeking opportunities, we are not blind. Some neighborhoods are better than others. Philadelphia is developing comprehensive plans for each of its Districts, and these are being rolled out, one after another. Philadelphia2035 Plan : The future begins now. >> Philly-2035-Plan : Individual districts The plan helps to pinpoint opportunities. However some areas are designated as Future Phase, with no detailed plans yet finished. Philadelphia District Plans Completed : Lower North Central South Lower South University Southwest River Wards , Central Northeast, Lower Northeast, Lower Northwest, West Park Future Phases : West, North, Upper Northwest Underway : North Delaware, Lower Southwest Upcoming: Spring 2016 : Upper North, Upper Far Northeast, Lower Far Northeast The Ones-of-most-Interest to me, tend to be neighborhoods with interesting history, which are well connected by public transport (or can be reconnected), and thus may be suitable for Transport Oriented Development (TOD). Many of the neighborhoods featured here have low property prices, often below $100,000 per house However, there is a huge variation in prices in different Philadelphia neighborhoods : » See All Highest median sale price 1. Philadelphia-Rittenhouse ........: $758,750 2. Philadelphia-SW Center City ...: $585,000 3. Philadelphia-West Poplar ........: $490,000 4. Philadelphia-Chestnut Hill .......: $467,500 5. Philadelphia-Riverfront ...........: $450,000 6. Philadelphia-Bella Vista ..........: $445,000 7. Philadelphia-Center City West : $440,000 8. Philadelphia-Olde Kensington .: $375,000 9. Philadelphia-Center City East .: $359,000 10 Philadelphia-Schuylkill ............: $346,000 Lowest median sale price 1. Philadelphia-Fairhill .....................: $10,000 2. Philadelphia-Strawberry Mansion : $12,800 3. Philadelphia-Allegheny West .......: $15,500 4. Philadelphia-Harrowgate .............: $16,500 5. Philadelphia-Hartranft .................: $19,000 6. Philadelphia-Hunting Park ...........: $20,000 7. Philadelphia-Tioga ......................: $22,319 8. Philadelphia-Mill Creek ...............: $23,000 9. Philadelphia-Haddington .............: $24,000 10 Philadelphia-Kingsessing ...........: $25,000 > source: http://philly.blockshopper.com/cities EXAMPLE of interesting is one of the neglected, Future Phase areas: Which is also probably the CHEAPEST neighborhood (at $10,000 per property) - see table at the Top, Here's an almost forgotten location than could* have great long term potential: *(But one needs to study how it is addressed in the 2035 Plan) FAIRHILL / North includes Philadelphia Station Area (Amtrac and SEPTA) : see more below, in post #xx > http://phila2035.org/home-page/district/north/ Neighborhood : Photos LINKS - - - GUIDE to living in Philly (locations) ----- : http://catalog.usciences.edu/content.php?catoid=1&navoid=17 History of Philadelphia neighborhoods : http://www.workshopoftheworld.com/west_phila/west_phila.html Neighborhoods, Stories from the past : http://www.pioneeramerica.org/past2013/past2013artbrew.html Gentrification Map : http://www.governing.com/gov-data/philadelphia-gentrification-maps-demographic-data.html

Another fascinating interview on F2B Ep. 242 FADE to BLACK Jimmy Church w/ Richard Alan Miller, Real X-Files LIVE on air Published on 6 May 2015 Dr. Richard Alan Miller is back with us and we cover recent world events...what is behind Neptune, The Day After Tomorrow, part 2 and what we can and cannot do about it...GMOs, prepping...and the alien agenda. There is nothing like a conversation with Dr. Miller...and once again he brings it.

"Exaggerated" ETF's show USD and Euro bonds are moving together (with similar turnpoints) BUNT (3x German Bond) versus LBND (3x US 25 year) BUNT vs LBND ... update

Global Bond Rout Sends Futures Tumbling, Bund Has Sharpest Weekly Selloff In History 05/07/2015 To get a sense of why futures are sliding right now, and what every global trader of any asset class is looking at right this moment, look no further than the chart below which shows what is going on with German Bunds yields. As DB and Reuters conveniently point out, this is the biggest and fastest weekly drop in Bund history. BUNT / DB 3x German Bund Futures ETN ... update The catalyst for today's plunge was weak French OAT auction, which saw yields rise and bid/cover ratios decline at 2023 and 2025 bond actions. "The big fallout in core fixed income occurred after a very soft French auction with a large tail which collapsed the market again," according ED&F Man head of U.S. rates Tom Di Galoma writes in note. But while there was an immediate cause, what really happened was a continuation of the selling momentum seen in the past two weeks. . . . However, the epic rout it has since gotten following some serious public and private sector jawboning, is precisely the opposite of what the ECB wanted which needed a smooth, controlled descent, and the sheer speed and size of the selloff is why Draghi may have no choice but to step in soon with some verbal intervention and declare that Bund yields, which are now well above where they were when Q€ started, will be pushed lower "whatever it takes." == >more: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-07/global-bond-rout-sends-futures-tumbling-bund-has-sharpest-two-week-selloff-history ( Headlines ): BOND SELLOFF DEEPENS; GERMAN 10-YR YIELD JUMPS 17 BPS TO 0.76% SPANISH 10-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS TO 2%; HIGHEST SINCE NOV. 24 ITALIAN 10-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS ABOVE 2%; 1ST TIME THIS YEAR 10Y TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS 6BPS TO 2.31%, HIGHEST SINCE DEC. 8 U.K. 10-YR BOND YIELD CLIMBS 8 BPS TO 2.06%; MOST SINCE NOV. 24 IRISH 10-YEAR YIELD RISES ABOVE 1.5%, FIRST TIME SINCE NOV. 21 JAPAN 10Y YIELD UP 7.5 BPS, SET FOR BIGGEST RISE SINCE MAY 2013 INDIA'S 2024 BOND YIELD CLIMBS 9 BPS TO 7.98% Meantime, as the FT points out: "When it comes to selloffs, it is hard to beat the deeply illiquid Spanish 50 year, the price fell by 20 percent at its worst point yesterday." JP: NIK / Nikkei-225 ... all-Data Historical similarity - like Japan bonds in 2003: "The 10-year Japanese bonds hit its then-record low in June 2003, after a remarkable low-volatility rally. Just as with this year's Bund rally, Japan led global bond yields down, even as the Fed was discussing raising rates..." "The bust was remarkably similar to the past three weeks in Bunds. It started slow, then a big selloff, a pause, a series of big selloffs and then a wipeout mostly reversed within the day. The overall drop was very similar, at 5-6 percent, though Japan took 17 days, against Germany's 13." "There was some good news... Japanese shares rose with yields in 2003." (however, Japan shares were cheap and out of favor, when the rally started.) - FT, pg. 13

LONDON Property : Better than Gold ! (original : Jan. 2011 post) HOUSING Valuations: ======== UK House (H&N Index - Dec.10): ............ GBP-162,131 = 0.480 GB (or 2.08 houses per GB) US House (CSX20 - Sep.10-147.49 x $1300 : $191,737 = 0.359 GB ( 2.78 Hs. per GB) HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 88.29 x 10,000): ....... HK$8.83 mn = 2.125 GB (or x.x Hs/GB) HK/ 7.78 = US$1.135mn Penang Lux. (RM1.5 milllion /3.06 ): .......... US$490,200 = 0.928 GB ======== (updated : May 2015): Mo: Rt'move : London: H&Nindex: mom : $Gold : 400oz : GBP/$ : GB-Gb : Lon-Gb : H&N-Gb 2010 J : : 222,261 : 407,731 : £164,497 :- 0.11% : D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : £162,131 :- 0.74% : $1,316 : $526.4k : $1.58 : 333.2k : 1.225GB : 0.487GB 2011-peak Aug 231,543 : 418,008 : £163,995 :- 0.74% : $1,850 : $740.0k : $1.63 : 454.0k : 0.921GB : 0.361GB 2015-now M : : 281,752 : 580,308 : £191,212 :+0.55% : $1,180 : $472.0k : $1.49 : 316.8k : 1.832GB : 0.603GB A. : : 286,133*: 594,585* £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,200 : $480.0k : $1.52 : 315.8k : 1.885GB : 0.0??GB M : : 000,??0 : 000,??0 : £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,191 : $476.4k : $1.52 : 313.4k : === *All Time High == : Halifax : Nat'wide : H&Nindex: D : : 189,304 : 188,559 : £188,932 : J. : : 192,954 : 188,446 : £190,700 : +0.94% : F. : : 192,372 : 187,964 : £190,168 : - 0.28% : M : : 192,970*: 189,454 : £191,212*: +0.55% : A. : : 000,??0 : 193,048*: £000,000 : === Wow ! Almost 2 Gold Bars (400 oz) are needed - actual 1.885 Gb's - to Buy an Average London House And the H&N Index house rose from 0.361GB to 0.603GB, that's +67.0% since Aug. 2011 > thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=13683 HOUSING VALUATIONS - at Q1-2015: London House (Rightmove - Mar.15):..... GBP-594,585 = 1.832 GB UK House (H&N Index - Mar.15): ............. GBP-191,212 = 0.603 GB (or 1.66 houses per Gold-Bar) US House (CSX20 - Feb.15-173.67 x $1300 : $225,771 = 0.470 GB ( 2.12 Hs. per GB) HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 141.2 x 10,000): ...... HK$14.12 mn = 3.796 GB (or 0.26 Hs/GB) HK/7.75 = US$1.822mn Manila 2BR (PHP8.0 milllion/44.7 ): .......... US$179,000 = 0.373 GB (or 2.43 Hs/GB) (based on $1,200 x 400= $480k)

LONDON Property : Better than Gold ! (original : Jan. 2011 post) HOUSING Valuations: ======== UK House (H&N Index - Dec.10): ............ GBP-162,131 = 0.480 GB (or 2.08 houses per GB) US House (CSX20 - Sep.10-147.49 x $1300 : $191,737 = 0.359 GB ( 2.78 Hs. per GB) HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 88.29 x 10,000): ....... HK$8.83 mn = 2.125 GB (or x.x Hs/GB) HK/ 7.78 = US$1.135mn Penang Lux. (RM1.5 milllion /3.06 ): .......... US$490,200 = 0.928 GB ======== (updated : May 2015): Mo: Rt'move : London: H&Nindex: mom : $Gold : 400oz : GBP/$ : GB-Gb : Lon-Gb : H&N-Gb 2010 J : : 222,261 : 407,731 : £164,497 :- 0.11% : D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : £162,131 :- 0.74% : $1,316 : $526.4k : $1.58 : 333.2k : 1.225GB : 0.487GB 2011-peak Aug 231,543 : 418,008 : £163,995 :- 0.74% : $1,850 : $740.0k : $1.63 : 454.0k : 0.921GB : 0.361GB 2015-now M : : 281,752 : 580,308 : £191,212 :+0.55% : $1,180 : $472.0k : $1.49 : 316.8k : 1.832GB : 0.603GB A. : : 286,133*: 594,585* £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,200 : $480.0k : $1.52 : 315.8k : 1.885GB : 0.0??GB M : : 000,??0 : 000,??0 : £000,??0 :- 0.00% : $1,191 : $476.4k : $1.52 : 313.4k : === *All Time High == : Halifax : Nat'wide : H&Nindex: D : : 189,304 : 188,559 : £188,932 : J. : : 192,954 : 188,446 : £190,700 : +0.94% : F. : : 192,372 : 187,964 : £190,168 : - 0.28% : M : : 192,970*: 189,454 : £191,212*: +0.55% : A. : : 000,??0 : 193,048*: £000,000 : === Wow ! Almost 2 Gold Bars (400 oz) are needed - actual 1.885 Gb's - to Buy an Average London House And the H&N Index house rose from 0.361GB to 0.603GB, that's +67.0% since Aug. 2011 > thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=13683 HOUSING VALUATIONS - at Q1-2015: London House (Rightmove - Mar.15):..... GBP-594,585 = 1.832 GB UK House (H&N Index - Mar.15): ............. GBP-191,212 = 0.603 GB (or 1.66 houses per Gold-Bar) US House (CSX20 - Feb.15-173.67 x $1300 : $225,771 = 0.470 GB ( 2.12 Hs. per GB) HK Lux. Flat (CCLI: 141.2 x 10,000): ...... HK$14.12 mn = 3.796 GB (or 0.26 Hs/GB) HK/7.75 = US$1.822mn Manila 2BR (PHP8.0 milllion/44.7 ): .......... US$179,000 = 0.373 GB (or 2.43 Hs/GB) (based on $1,200 x 400= $480k)

Dave Skarica... to his Newsletter Readers: Einhorn - on "the Mother Frackers" : Amazing! "None of the Frackers generated positive cash flow" "Investing for growth is a fiction." "Depletion gets ignored (it is not a cash item) ... Capex gets ignored too." David Einhorn is one of the modern day hedge fund titans. In his late twenties he started with about 1 million dollars mostly given him to by his parents and is now a multi billionaire dollar hedge fund manager. He became very famous in 2008 for predicting and profiting from the demise of Lehman Brothers. Now Einhorn has turned his attention to the Frackers. Many think that the frackers are fine that Oil has increased to $62 a barrel. However, the problem with many of these companies is that they were not even cash flow positive even at $100 a barrel Oil. My first newsletter of the year was devoted to pointing out the flaws in the frackers models. However, the real danger is that these companies represent 14 percent of the High Yield Junk Market up from just 4 percent 10 years ago. The average fracked well only lasts about 2-3 years. Therefore , in a year or two you are going to start to see mass defaults and bankruptcies in the sector. This could have dire effects for the corporate bond market. To see Einhorns presentation on the frackers and why these are not economic companies please go to our website www.addictedtoprofits.net and view the video I have posted of his speech. David Skarica / Gregory Town, Bahamas

It remains a volatile stock - which has had some great runs NNVC / NanoViricides Inc. ... All-data : 10-years : 3-yrs : 6-mos

BLAME IT ON OIL, and German Bunds : That's what the FT is doing, to explain the drop in equites Brent Oil is even higher than WTI Crude - it nearly touched $70 yesterday OILB / Brent etf ... 2-yrs : 6-mos : 10-days "Typically, such an environment would be described as 'risk-off', and see the dollar performing well. However, given the euro's role as a funding currency, it is the euro and not the dollar, which is benefitting in the current environment." "The covering short Euro positions continues to support the euro..." - FT, pg.21 Meantime, German yields have jumped: 10-yr rates up from 10bp to 50bp "So much for risk-free assets. In 12 days, owners of German benchmark bonds have seen the plummeting price wipe out more than 60 years worth of income, as the Bund sees the biggest rout in total return terms since 1994." - FT, pg.13

May: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l 04: 211.32 +0.60 : 64.6M: 12.85 : 20.41 +0.14: 114.10 +1.02: 3.62M: 1,187.3 $59.02* 95.445 +0.231: 122.83 - 1.17: 07: 27/ 075: 0,200 05: 208.90 - 2.42 : 105.M: 14.31 : 20.22 - 0.19: 114.42 +0.32: 3.81M: 1,192.5 $60.67* 94.875 - 0.570: 122.66 - 0.17: 08: 35/ 100: 0,300 === Jump in Oil prices to over $60, as the US Dollar resumes its decline But Oil closed right ON a resistance level. Here's OILB / the etf for Brent ... update : 12-mos

Has Barratt found its high? BDEV ... all-data : 5-years The chart argument is strongest on the All-data chart. On the 5-year chart, a break of 500p might begin to "confirm" a Top is in place 5-years ... update : 12mos : Last: 513.50 - 6.00 Keep in mind, there is usually (but not always) a post-election Rally. If it comes, it may "safe" FTSE from rolling over, and also BDEV UKX ... update

HK Property: Red Hot or Cold as ice? Depends on whether you are looking at New or Secondhand Red-hot primary home deals dampen resales The contrast between a red-hot primary housing market and an ice-cold secondary one was made all the more obvious during the Labor Day holiday, with both segments refreshing records. An all-out round of sales at a small-unit development in To Kwa Wan could take the number of new home deals struck over the weekend to more than 200 the most during the May 1 Golden Week since 2008 according to Midland Realty. But that left sales of existing apartments going in the opposite direction, as those eyeing a home swarmed to grab newer even cheaper options. All 164 flats at My Place, a redevelopment scheme by the Urban Renewal Authority and China Overseas Land (0688), were sold within three hours yesterday. Prospective buyers earlier cast a total of 5,490 checks to show their intent to purchase the units, representing an oversubscription of 32 times. The project's urban location and a small lump sum needed to buy a unit appealed massively to starter buyers as well as those seeking rental returns, said Midland's residential chief Sammy Po Siu-ming. The units between 200 and 300 sellable square feet were priced from HK$3.78 million to HK$7.24 million. The cheapest one after all discounts cost only HK$3.33 million. Po estimated homeowners could lease the flats for HK$45 pssf, compared to an average HK$40 in the area. Rental yields could reach 3.5 percent, outpacing 2.9 percent for small residential properties. About 40 percent of purchasers were investors, according to the agency === > http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=11&art_id=156629&sid=44390416&con_type=3&d_str=20150504&fc=1

+++ CONTINUES +++ McKinley Hills in central Manila, one of Megaworld’s most prestigious townships, is nearing completion after eight years of construction. The finishing touch will be the opening of the Venice Piazza and Grand Canal Mall later this year. The mall will join the residential and commercial buildings, international schools and sports facilities already in place. But that will only be the company’s cue to press on with the new $1 billion McKinley West “ultra high-end” township development next door. “We see few risks,” Mr. Go said. “We sell 70% of a new development before turning soil—that typically takes us less than a year—and 70% of people pay cash.” McKinley West’s residential lots sold out within a month, the company said. SM Development Corp., the real-estate arm of conglomerate SM Investments Corp., has prospered in a different market tier. Its residential sales rose 37% in 2014, according to Executive Vice President Jose Mari Banzon. The company’s properties are typically priced at 2 million to 3 million pesos. “We just find the middle market to be bigger and more stable,” Mr. Banzon said, “People in that market segment have the money, and their credit is good.” There are also opportunities in social housing—properties priced at less than 1 million pesos—for developers willing to trade margins for scale, Mr. Banzon said. “This country had a housing shortfall of 3.9 million in 2013,” he said. “It will be 6.5 million by 2030.” “Is there a risk of a bubble forming?” Mr. Guevara asked. “The important question is: Are developers addressing actual demand? In this case, it’s safe to say that they are.”