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Olympic lull contributes to largest ever August price drop DATA August 2012 was £236,260, down 2.4 per cent from £242,097 in July. London: £454,875, -1.2% from Jul'12: £460,304, This 2012 decline, is also the biggest TWO MONTH drop since 2003 August drops : Jul-Aug : SON&D : 2ndHalf / Lon-2H 2003 : +0.0% : +0.44% : +2.89% : +3.35% / +0.60% 2004 : - 2.0% : - 0.84% : - 1.35% : - 2.18% / - 4.87% 2005 : - 0.2% : - 1.19% : - 0.05% : - 1.24% / +1.86% 2006 : - 1.6% : +1.23% : +3.60% : +4.88% /+12.65% 2007 : +0.6% : +0.90% : - 3.76% : - 2.89% / - 0.84% 2008 : - 2.3% : - 4.07% : - 5.23% : - 9.08% / - 1.83% 2009 : - 2.2% : - 1.62% : - 0.58% : - 2.20% / +0.32% 2010 : - 1.7 % : - 2.32% : - 4.23% : -6.46% / - 4.97% 2011 : - 2.1% : - 3.68% : - 2.50% : - 6.09% / - 0.93% 2012 : - 2.4% : - 4.05% : ? ? ? ===== The average drop for SON&D is -1.24%, so we may be headed for a 5% drop (or greater) in the second Half of 2012. /see: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/august-2012 If you can accept that the Olympics effected Mainly London, it may have saved that market from a bigger drop.

Olympic lull contributes to largest ever August price drop DATA August 2012 was £236,260, down 2.4 per cent from £242,097 in July. London: £454,875, -1.2% from Jul'12: £460,304, This 2012 decline, is also the biggest TWO MONTH drop since 2003 August drops : Jul-Aug : SON&D : 2ndHalf / Lon-2H 2003 : +0.0% : +0.44% : +2.89% : +3.35% / +0.60% 2004 : - 2.0% : - 0.84% : - 1.35% : - 2.18% / - 4.87% 2005 : - 0.2% : - 1.19% : - 0.05% : - 1.24% / +1.86% 2006 : - 1.6% : +1.23% : +3.60% : +4.88% /+12.65% 2007 : +0.6% : +0.90% : - 3.76% : - 2.89% / - 0.84% 2008 : - 2.3% : - 4.07% : - 5.23% : - 9.08% / - 1.83% 2009 : - 2.2% : - 1.62% : - 0.58% : - 2.20% / +0.32% 2010 : - 1.7 % : - 2.32% : - 4.23% : -6.46% / - 4.97% 2011 : - 2.1% : - 3.68% : - 2.50% : - 6.09% / - 0.93% 2012 : - 2.4% : - 4.05% : ? ? ? ===== The average drop for SON&D is -1.24%, so we may be headed for a 5% drop (or greater) in the second Half of 2012. /see: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/august-2012 If you can accept that the Olympics effected Mainly London, it may have saved that market from a bigger drop.

UK House Prices Plunge 2.4% in August as Olympics Restrains ...‎ IBTimes.co.uk - 21 hours ago House prices suffered their worst monthly plunge ever in August, plummeting by 2.4 percent according to the Rightmove House Price Index. ==== Olympics 'leads to housing market lull' as prices in Wales drop 5.2%‎ / WalesOnline Rightmove records highest August price drop on record‎ Month-on-month asking prices dropped the highest ever from July to August, according to Rightmove. Its August House Price Index found that the average asking price in August 2012 was £236,260, down 2.4 per cent from £242,097 in July. That followed a 1.7 per cent drop month-on-month from June to July. Meanwhile, 127,992 properties were added to the market, up 0.4 per cent on August 2011. Despite the large drop in the last two months, prices are still 2 per cent higher than they were in August 2011. /see: http://www.mortgagefinancegazette.com/latest-news/rightmove-records-highest-august-price-drop-on-record/ That's a big back-to-back, wiping out all but 2% of the gain

CAUTION FLAG hoisted for Bears Peak profits maybe? "My friends building firm has just closed down... So maybe bdev is not such a good indicator DrB" BDEV may not be a good predictor of the prosperity of your friends firm, but it has worked reasonable well for the UK and London property market BDEV-chart BDEV: 152.20 +3.20 Open: 149.30 / High: 152.60 / Low: 148.40 Volume: 4,457,104 Percent Change: +2.15% HIGH for the year : 153.15 (could be broken this week) At the moment, BDEV is threatening to breakout to the Upside, and so is not supporting my notion of a post-Olympics house price slide. Bears should be careful ! If volume stays above 3mn shares, and BDEV pushes above 153P, I will have to publish a post headlined: Crash postponed ?

CAUTION FLAG hoisted for Bears Peak profits maybe? "My friends building firm has just closed down... So maybe bdev is not such a good indicator DrB" BDEV may not be a good predictor of the prosperity of your friends firm, but it has worked reasonable well for the UK and London property market BDEV-chart BDEV: 152.20 +3.20 Open: 149.30 / High: 152.60 / Low: 148.40 Volume: 4,457,104 Percent Change: +2.15% HIGH for the year : 153.15 (could be broken this week) At the moment, BDEV is threatening to breakout to the Upside, and so is not supporting my notion of a post-Olympics house price slide. Bears should be careful ! If volume stays above 3mn shares, and BDEV pushes above 153P, I will have to publish a post headlined: Crash postponed ?

DonyLee offers up the Mathematics for a Wormhole He says: Time travel is possible in mathematics! Hope you enjoy the 2-part video. Check out www.gaussianmath.com for a more indepth explanation and other interesting topics in mathematics.

MM / I found someone "on the same wavelength" as you, when it comes to Building & Using Wormhole : Let's look at the possible uses, starting with direct travel. To ship a wormhole, assuming it's low-mass, we can attach a rocket to its cage and fire it off - just about any rocket will do, then we can pipe propellant to it via the wormhole. To push a wormhole/rocket combination weighing 1 ton to near lightspeed would take ~ 100,000 tons of propellant - assuming we're using a steam rocket with 3 km/s exhaust velocity. That water is a lake a hectare in area and ten metres deep. A cubic kilometre of water lets us move ~ 10,000 tons, or 10,000 wormholes. That's enough wormholes for roughly every star within ~ 94 light-years, which would be reached in ~ 127 years at the latest. In about ~ 110,000 years every star in the Galaxy could be linked up via wormhole. Using merely Earth's water - which we wouldn't - the job would be done with just ~ 0.74% of the total. Assuming a 10 gee rocket we could send a wormhole to Pluto in ~ 5 days. If wormhole maintenance costs are low enough, then we could profitably ship frozen nitrogen and methane from its surface. We could mine hydrogen clathrate from Sedna or some other Inner Oort Cloud object. Or suspend a wormhole mouth via a balloon and funnel hydrogen/helium direct from the Jovians, petrochemicals from Titan's lakes, raw sunlight from Mercury, or - assuming advanced reflective materials - pipe intense sunlight straight from the photosphere of the Sun. Assuming a wormhole stable against the conditions we could send them into the core of the Sun to cause mixing between the Core and the outer layers, thus increasing the Sun's remaining lifespan 10-fold. The process would take ~ millions of years because the inner regions are very dense, but we're talking billions of years anyway. /more-Graal, from Brisbane : http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=5816

Does she realise what a beautiful (almost mythic) voice she possesses ? The Dragonborn Comes /more: http://www.malukah.com/about/

What set me off was the Detail in the descriptions: One property was said to HAVE A HIGH YIELD, and the other was said to have more capital gains potential The TRUTH, I Reckon is: ======= + Neither have much capital gains potential / both are poor investments + The one wih the high (expected) yield, has a huge management fee, and so if you calculate the Net Yield, it is far lower and unexciting + In both cases, the yields are estimates, and actual market yields will be lower Or maybe: "Ballymore has agreed to pay between £52.5mn and £55.7mn towards improving local transport" Ballymore does really pay that, the punters that buy the property pay it. Maybe that raises the price, and lowers the yield - and it may be tough to get people to pay the rent in a new area like that I am happy to be corrected on this, if someone has specific information on either London property This "UK crap real estate" is selling rather well in Hong Kong, and places like Singapore

Someone (here in Hong Kong) asked this question recently: Does the Centaline Index accurately reflect Market prices ? This is something I have been looking at recently, and I think it does. Specifically, if you wonder about how well movements in the Index are reflecting in price movements for individual areas, the answer I found is that prices all around HK correlate well with the Centaline index. This chart contains four indices, and is pretty busy, so I had better explain it. We are looking at mostly monthly intervals since 2010, and let's start with the Blue line: + Blue: Centaline index multiplied by 100 (Example: July 29, 2012: 106.54 x 100 = $10,654 ) + Red: Taikoo Shing : $10,689 psf (at 7/29/12) + Green: Park Avenue : $11,145 psf (7/29/12) + Yellow: Island Harbourview : $9,663 psf (7/29/12) Not only was 100x the Index a good proxy for Per Square Foot prices in the main two developments, but each of those, Taikoo Shing and Park Avenue/Park Central correlate well with each other - I believe that they provide good benchmarks for Hong Kong Island and West Kowloon. I find it a bit surprising to find the prices for these two are so close to each other. Taikoo Shing is an old area, with dated and rundown housing stock, in crowded conditions. By contrast, the buildings which comprize Park Avenue/Central Park in West Kowloon near Olympic station - Is much more modern, and feels much less crowded. It continues to surprise me that HK people pay such high prices for inferior housing stock just because it is on HK Island. The journey by MTR from Olympic station is actually a bit faster to HK Station, than from TKS to Central. (Having said that, there is then a 5-6 minutes walk from HK station to Central.) Is that little walk really worth living in a 25 years older building? To me, it is not.

Tale of the Tongues - Skyrim cover - Malukah Thursday, 16 August 2012 /Written by Kerry Cassidy ... and the dragons are gone. A Must Listen. The Dragonborn Comes, another of her songs is used on Kerry's AFR show

LEEDS Podcast with Marty Leeds from Wednesday. About numbers http://www.americanfreedomradio.com/archive/Project-Camelot-32k-081512.mp3 His website : http://MartyLeeds33.com === KC mentions Ben Pietsch's work: Ben Pietsch video: “Do you remember the time you spent in the King’s Chamber and wouldn’t speak of it? What happened?” Even on his deathbed, Napoleon refused to discuss the matter. These things fascinated me. Some of the books talked about pyramid power, a special energy that exists within the pyramid’s perfect geometrical structure. If someone builds a small replica of the pyramid, keeping the dimensions exactly in proportion and aligning the model with true north, certain very interesting things happen. For instance, you can place a piece of fruit inside the replica, and it will not rot for one month or more. You can easily test it by putting one apple inside, one outside. In a few days, the apple outside decays, while the apple inside does not. Razor blades placed inside remain sharp for weeks when used, whereas ordinary blades left outside become dull after three or four shaves. Plants watered with water left inside the pyramid flourish better than plants watered with regular water. Such experiments were easy to set up and verify. These and many other things intrigued me. Before leaving, I received a call from a man named Ben Pietsch from Santa Rosa, California. He introduced himself by saying he was a pyramidologist. He had lectured and written many articles on the Great Pyramid, including an unpublished book, Voices in Stone, which he later sent me - a fascinating work. He had heard via the grapevine that I was going to Egypt to play my flute inside the Great pyramid. He loved the idea and said that sonic vibrations constituted an integral part of the structure. In fact, he said, every room has a basic vibration to it; if we found it and identified with it, we would become attuned to that particular space. I had never heard that theory before, but it made sense to me. The King’s Chamber is the main chamber in the Great pyramid. Within this chamber is a hollow, lidless coffer made of solid granite. Pietsch said that if I struck this coffer, it would give off a tone. I should tune up to this tone in order to be at one with it, thereby attuned with the chamber. “And by the way,” he said, “you’ll find that note to be A-438.” In the West, our established A-note vibrates at 440 vibrations per second. He was saying that the A-note of the coffer was two vibrations lower than ours, which would make their A-note slightly flat, only a shade lower in pitch, but different nevertheless. Although he had not personally visited the Great Pyramid, he seemed to know this quite definitely. /see: http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/piramides/esp_piramide_19.htm Comment from there: Amazing brain-food! I feel very strongly that Mr. Pietsch just may be on to solutions to every philosopher's quest.

SOUND JUDGMENT or Misinformation? Ballymore’s 'Embassy Gardens' scheme would provide up to 1,982 new homes alongside shops, cafes, bars, restaurants, business space, a 100 bed hotel, a health centre, children’s playgrounds and sports pitches. It would also provide more than 6 acres of new outdoor public space including a section of the Nine Elms linear park which will run the full length of the district. The development site is located to the south of Nine Elms lane and wraps around the site of the new US Embassy. As part of the scheme’s Section 106 package Ballymore has agreed to pay between £52.5mn and £55.7mn towards improving local transport and social infrastructure. The exact figure will depend on the timing of the payments and final form of the development /see: http://www.e-architect.co.uk/london/embassy_gardens_nine_elms.htm The article in HK's Square Foot magazine is entitled: "Sound Judgement" ================ It talks about two Ballymore Group developments in the London area + Embassy Gardens (EG) - "in burgeoning Nine Elms district, across the river from Chelsea." + Providence Tower (PT) - a "prime London property", 10 minutes from Canary Wharf "95,000 professionals trek to Canary Wharf daily, and only 7,000 live locally." "There isn't enough residential, tehre isn't enough high end lifestyle and leisure development for the people who work in those industries." Comparing EG and PT - "Is Ballymore competing with itself" EG: "Is very much about capital appreciation. It's a huge regeneration story" "Will the yields be as fantastic as acheived at Canary Wharf? No, they won't. Yields are generated by rents versus prices and prices of Zone 1 flats are higher." link: http://www.ballymoregroup.com/en-GB/developments/nine-elms-battersea Mixed Use: •2,600,000 sq ft mixed use community of apartments, office space, retail and leisure, grocery store and flexible work and community space / •2,000 new homes /•Potential for up to 600,000 sq ft of office space PT: "You're going to get yields of 6 percent plus. Are you going to get the same growth potential? Probably not." PT is "for those who want an annual return on their investment." http://www.ballymoregroup.com/en-GB/developments/new-providence-wharf THIS ALL strikes me as misinformation somehow

UK Net Worth Rises to Record £6.8 Trillion‎ / IBTimes.co.uk Britain's net worth reached a record £6.8 trillion at the end of last year, according to the Office for National Statistics, as persistently high property prices offset a fall in the contribution of the central government. The National Balance Sheet figures, released by the ONS, show a 3.3 percent increase in what is called "UK Net Worth", a calculation that estimates the market value of financial and non-financial assets in the country. According to the data, the value of Britain's residential property (as well as things such as churches and sports grounds) was the single-largest contributor, adding more than £4.1tn to the total account. Britain's currency holdings and its bank deposits added a further £1.3tn. The value of what's called "insurance technical reserves", which are effectively the value of the private insurance industry's holdings, was £2.2tn. /see: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/374343/20120816/britain-net-worth-house-prices-debt-borrowing.htm Getting a GRIP on Housing Wealth... Britain's residential property---------- : £4,100 Bn Less: churches and sports grounds :: £ 400 Bn (assume 10%) Privately owned Homes----------------- : £3,700 Bn (assume 90%) Addback: Mortgages outstanding--- : £1,221 Bn : MLAR Mortgage Loan O/S Overall Value of Private Homes------ : £4,921 Bn : Mtg.OS: 24.9% ============= Divided by Ave Price (Haliwide)---- : £164,489 : June 2012 Est.Number, homes in the UK------ : 29.91 million (Overall Value / Ave. Haliwide Price) Divided by Ave Price, adjusted ---- : £180,838 : June 2012: 80% Nationwide/Halifax, 20%-Rightmove Est.Number, homes in the UK------ : 27.21 million (Overall Value / Ave. Adjusted Price) Est.Number, empty homes in UK---- : 930,000 : emptyhomes.com Est.Number, occupied homes UK-- : 26.28 million (Another check)... Number of households in the UK--- : 26.30 million : in 2011 Number of homes in the UK---------- : 25.00 million : BBC figure Owner occupied homes in UK------- : 17.50 million : 7-of-10, per BBC Population of the U.K. ----------------- : 62.64 million : in 2011 NOTE: The initial numbers I collected did not "add up" propeerly. The Mortgage Gross figure of- : £ 7,200 Bn is too high - Incl. Commercial Mtgs? I found another Mortgage O/S : £ 1,221 Bn : MLAR Figure, Q1-2011

Like Silver Wheaton, many silver stocks are looking rather good now

I posted this in my Diary, and it has generated some interest in the Kickstarter thread, which I have now renamed: "Kickstarting a Wormhole - & Other smaller projects"

It has worked so far. And nonsensical articles like this have helped / GIGO / Garbage-In, Garbage-Out / London house prices: Shortages mean price of homes will continue to go up in long term Home buyers are still likely to make decent returns on their investment in the longer term despite the weakness of the current market, a study has found. House price growth is projected to average 2% a year in real terms between 2012 and 2025, with a lack of available homes pushing up prices later in the decade once housing demand recovers from current subdued levels, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) said. The rate would give a more modest return than the growth seen over the last 30 years, with increases of around 4% a year between 1984 and 2007. But it does offer homeowners some hope compared with the situation over the last five years, as real house prices have plummeted by around a fifth since 2007, leaving many people stuck in negative equity and unable to take their next step on the housing ladder. Lenders have also been tightening their borrowing criteria in recent months, making it tougher for people to take out a mortgage in the sluggish market. A landlord with a buy-to-let property could expect an average real return of 3% a year before tax but after running costs between 2012 and 2025, the study suggested. . . . The PwC study found that by comparison, a 50/50 mix of index-linked gilts and equities were likely to give a similar return to housing over the next 13 years, with an expected real return of around 3% a year. /more: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/london-house-prices-shortages-mean-price-of-homes-will-continue-to-go-up-in-long-term-8030463.html How do they come up with this horsesh/t ? Personally, given the demographics, and current (high) prices levels, I think there is near zero chance for a 3% Annual Real return

MIXED SIGNALS / London may be holding so far House prices are falling and more drops are expected in the coming months, surveyors said today. A balance of 24% more surveyors reported falling rather than rising prices last month, the most negative reading since June 2011, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said. London, which has had strong interest from overseas buyers, is the only region where more surveyors reported price rises than falls. The West and East Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside were the areas where surveyors were the most likely to report prices falling. The start of the school holidays meant activity in the market tailed off further, with the number of new sellers coming to market declining for the third month in a row, while demand from buyers remained broadly flat despite the wet weather, the study said http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/london-house-prices-property-across-the-uk-is-falling-and-more-drops-expected-say-surveyors-8045760.html

Largest monthly drop in house prices for 4 years Monday, July 16, 2012 This month’s sellers cut asking prices by -1.7% (-£4,138) the largest price drop in July for four years, according to Rightmove's House Price Index. - Average Property Asking Price: £242,097 - % Change in Month: -1.7% - % Change in Past Year: +2.3% - Monthly Index (Jan 2002=100): 197.0 Overview New sellers outnumber successful buyers by an average of nearly 2:1, highlighting the substantial challenge faced by many sellers during this summer of miserable ‘viewing’ weather and Olympic distractions. Perhaps in response, those coming to market have dropped their initial price expectations by asking an average of £4,138 (-1.7%) less than sellers in the previous month, the first fall since January. While the onset of the quieter summer selling season often sees a softening of new sellers’ prices, this is the largest drop Rightmove has recorded in July since 2008. /see: http://www.myintroducer.com/view.asp?ID=10441 ==== ==== Whoops! That was Last Month August is usually the seasonal lowpoint, so just hang on

Where's the Sense in this ? The market is slowing down, so add to supply ?? FT: Coalition plans housebuilding stimulus Ministers are preparing to unveil a new package of measures to stimulate the flagging house-building sector next month, in an attempt to help drag Britain out of recession. The plan has been drawn up by Oliver Letwin, the prime minister’s head of policy, along with Grant Shapps, housing minister, and Danny Alexander, chief secretary to the Treasury. Since 2010, the coalition has introduced several plans to boost housebuilding, such as putting forward more public land for development. [i see lots of vague plans and absolutely no concrete action.] /see:

House price balance shows biggest fall in a year - RICS Reuters UK - ‎25 minutes ago‎ | LONDON (Reuters)- British house prices experienced their most widespread falls for a year in the three months to July, and surveyors do not expect the outlook to improve over the next 12 months, a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered ... /See: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/08/13/uk-house-price-idUKBRE87C15520120813 (2) House prices hit new low, study finds UK house prices have dipped to their lowest levels for a year, according to the latest monthly survey of housing professionals, with transaction levels also slipping. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors found that a balance of 24 per cent more reported prices falling rather than rising in July, from a balance of 22 per cent in June. Moreover, the number of transactions is also declining, with 20 per cent more reporting a decline in newly agreed sales than a rise, compared with a balance of 13 per cent reporting falling volumes in June. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a8eb20b8-e560-11e1-9a2f-00144feab49a.html#ixzz23TMCyMI1

I know someone (in HK) who raised something like $100,000 through that site. But most of it came from people who knew him personally. He has a good investment idea, and is a convincing salesperson == == One that you liked, had enormous success: 63,416 Backers $8,596,475 pledged of $950,000 goal /see: What do they do with all the excess pledges? === === KICK STARTER Idea - I have started a thread about it: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16649

Signs of stress in BTL Financial Times: Buy-to-let repossessions at record high You will need to register with the FT to see this article. The FT has looked at data from the Council Of Mortgage Lenders and found that the proportion of repossessions that were for BTL properties rose from 10 percent in 2009 to 19 percent during the first half of 2012. I'm not sure what to make of this data. Are banks showing less forbearance to BTLers compared with residential households or is the BTL market rental income declining due to arrears? The total repossession rate for BTL (repossessions in total number of mortgages) is a record 0.24 percent hence the headline. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fdaf1250-e2ed-11e1-a463-00144feab49a.html

Thanks, YT Interesting points on the Indian tenants at HP - it seems possible. I am not rascist, but it is true that Indian tenants have a preference for spicy food, and when we rented flats to Indians in the past, there was often a strong smell in the flat afterwards, and that made it harder to rent and sell. So from a landlords point of view, that would be a negative. And I also know that Indian friends of our like Hung Hom, so maybe there is a bit of an enclave there. However, I have to say that in the two times I visited the (very nice clubhouse), I did not notice that pattern. We are very keen on The Long Beach, where wer live, and I think it represents better value than Imperial Cullinan (certainly! given the much lower prices per sf at LB), and also better than Island Harbourview (it is a definite step up!) and Harbour Green (for the better flats here.) The rain may seem like a problem, but it is not in our view because it rains rarely, and there is a shuttlebus to the MTR which runs every 15 minutes - but is hardly needed. Also HG is surrounded by noise, and is not on the sea. I alao think the LB clubhouse can compare with any clubhouse in all of HK, so I don't think HG would be better. Look for my PM

Most London home buyers 'think prices are unfair' LLB: 6 August 2012 Around two-thirds of people looking to buy a home in London believe prices in the capital are above what is “fair and reasonable”, a survey has found. Some 65% of people living in London believe prices are higher than what is fair. Asking prices in the capital have risen on the back of strong interest from foreign buyers. . . . MyLondonHome.com director Andrew Griffith said: “Around 50% of buyers are from overseas and one of the reasons the property market is as healthy as it is in London is because of the number of foreign buyers compared to the rest of the UK. “It pushes prices above what many typical Londoners may be willing to pay. “It is a reflection of the amount of interest in central London, which has always been there but with the Olympics and the Jubilee celebration it is greater than ever.” Griffith noted that other cities which have hosted the Olympic Games had seen property prices fall after the event left town. He said: “If you look at other Olympic cities, such as Beijing, Athens and Sydney, their property markets have taken a dip after the Games. Whether that happens here in London remains to be seen. /more: http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/property/residential-property/most-london-home-buyers-think-prices-are-unfair/3134.article