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US based investors are being suggested to... Sell your gold, buy a house FT: Cash out of gold and send kids to college According to the website pricedingold.com, gold is at a 120-year high (at least) relative to US house prices. On the pricedingold.com numbers, you should cash out of gold, buy a nice house, hire some workers, send your kids to college and eat big breakfasts, writes Peter Tasker, a Tokyo-based analyst with Arcus Research /see: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/312bf416-d1a7-11e1-bb82-00144feabdc0.html#axzz22nn7B5nh

NOT LOOKING GOOD for the Interest-Only People House price fall hits hopes of remortgaging for millions By Laura Shannon .. 7 August 2012 Falling house prices are blocking millions of homeowners from cheaper mortgages as lenders knock off thousands of pounds during a property valuation. A so-called ‘down-valuation’ by a lender can wipe out thousands of pounds of equity at remortgage — and also trap borrowers desperate to move to a bigger home. When you decide to switch lenders for a better mortgage deal, the bank or building society arranges a new valuation on your home to check it’s worth enough to let you borrow the sum you need. Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2185126/House-price-fall-hits-hopes-remortgaging-millions.html#ixzz22uOlAx00 Anecdote: Gilly Vines, 36, and her husband Richard planned to sell their two-bedroom flat in Exmouth, Devon, now they have two young children, and buy a house with a garden. But the flat wouldn’t shift, so Mrs Vines applied for a let-to-buy mortgage, which allows homeowners to borrow for a new home while renting out their old property. Yet the valuation on their flat was £10,000 less than expected and they no longer qualified for the deal. ‘It’s frustrating,’ says Mrs Vine. ‘Different agents valued it at around the same price, but the surveyor said it was much less’ — weakening their deposit from 22 pc to 15 pc. They are now staying put until they build up more equity. == == The bank probably did her a favor in turning her request down. Else she might have wound up own two homes in a falling market. In six months, she might be saying: "Thank goodness for the bank's prudence." /source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2184694/House-prices-fallen-20-past-5-years-leaving-millions-homes-worth-paid-them.html

The Land Reg. figures come too late to be of much use to anyone but historians. If you want to use a figure for decision-making, you need something more current. To smooth out "noise", I use an average of the NSA figures posted by Halifax and Nationwide, and call that "new" index Hali-Wide or the H&N Index. You can find a database here: TinyUrl dotcom / GEI-data I have found that the HaliWide Index "charts well". In other words, it tends to establish trends, which when broken often prove meaningful. To get a more up-to-date sense of the market, I also watch the charts of the UK builders, and especially Barratt and Persimmon. == == I did like this comment from the article: "The trouble is house prices are still too high. My colleague Phil Oakley has argued that, although propped up by low interest rates, the housing market is 'rotting from within'. " ...and if you go to that article, you will discover some alarming facts, including this one, about interest-only mortgages: "These mortgages are a big problem for lenders. They account for 36% of all mortgages outstanding (43% if you include buy-to-let mortgages). During the next ten years, 1.5 million interest-only mortgages with a value of £120bn (10% of all outstanding mortgages) are due to be repaid. How?"

The Land Reg. figures come too late to be of much use to anyone but historians. If you want to use a figure for decision-making, you need something more current. To smooth out "noise", I use an average of the NSA figures posted by Halifax and Nationwide, and call that "new" index Hali-Wide or the H&N Index. You can find a database here: TinyUrl dotcom / GEI-data I have found that the HaliWide Index "charts well". In other words, it tends to establish trends, which when broken often prove meaningful. To get a more up-to-date sense of the market, I also watch the charts of the UK builders, and especially Barratt and Persimmon. == == I did like this comment from the article: "The trouble is house prices are still too high. My colleague Phil Oakley has argued that, although propped up by low interest rates, the housing market is 'rotting from within'. " ...and if you go to that article, you will discover some alarming facts, including this one, about interest-only mortgages: "These mortgages are a big problem for lenders. They account for 36% of all mortgages outstanding (43% if you include buy-to-let mortgages). During the next ten years, 1.5 million interest-only mortgages with a value of £120bn (10% of all outstanding mortgages) are due to be repaid. How?"

June peak, with falls July through Jan., is 7 months: + at 0.50%, that's : - 3.5% + at 0.75%, that's : - 5.3% + at 1.00%, that's : - 7.0% More than 1.0% per month would likely suggest some sort of crash is underway, if only a minor one. But I do not rule out something worse than a 10% drop in the months to come.

Another brief one - also posted on AX: YT, The size might suit you, but maybe not the location. Nevertheless, I will suggest you look at Harbour Place in Hung Hom. You can pick up a 770 sf flat there at under HKD 8,000 psf. The big feature is the SHKP clubhouse. Transport connections will improve in the future. (This is one of the options that we have considered.) === === Because of its history, Harbour Place has appreciated little since its launch. At current prices of $8,000 psf, I think it is fairlky valued, and maybe undervalued: Formerly called Hung Hom Peninsula (Chinese: 紅灣半島) and built on the reclaimed land of Hung Hom Bay, it was an HOS estate comprising 2,470 flats completed by the Hong Kong government in 2002. Since the government decided to suspend the scheme, Hung Hom Peninsula was sold to Sun Hung Kai Properties and New World Development in February 2004. In November 2004, the developers decided to demolish and rebuild the buildings. The environmentalists, legislators and citizens were worried about the waste pollution and strongly opposed the plan. One month later, due to public concerns, the developers decided not to demolish the buildings and renovate existing flats and upgrade facilities instead. In 2008, the extensive renovation and refurbishment of what was once a public housing estate into a luxury residential complex was completed and the flats were sold to the public. /source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harbour_Place

PRESS COMMENTS The three-month change, which is regarded as a better indicator of the state of the housing market, showed prices remained flat. Halifax now puts the average value of a UK home at £161,094 – about the same as in the summer of 2009. The bank's housing economist, Martin Ellis, said the ongoing stability in prices was a result of a lack of activity in the market. According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors the ratio of house sales to unsold properties has changed very little over the past 21 months. Ellis said: "Looking forward, we expect little change in prices over the remainder of 2012, so long as the economic climate in the UK does not worsen substantially." However, Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said the latest round of price data heightened his belief that the market would fall further over the remainder of 2012. "With the economy slumping in the second quarter, and the outlook highly uncertain amid worryingly strong domestic and international (mainly eurozone) headwinds, we believe there is a very real and mounting danger that house prices could fall by appreciably more than 3% from current levels." Property website Rightmove said homebuyers and sellers were locked in a stand-off over prices, which could lead to a further fall in sales over the coming months. === === http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/aug/06/house-prices-fall-halifax Archer may be the least-compromised, and I think he is calling it right

That's a good analysis, YellowTip. I wonder how many will see it and comment? I will give you two posts, in reaction to it: A quick one, and a Longer, more considered one. My quick comment is: ======== Have you thought of downsizing? That is, buying something, but maybe smaller and cheaper than you had before. This way, if the market drops, you will have something to gain. But if it keeps rising, you will not find youself left behind. Cyclically, I think the market could have another 2-3 years, and maybe more. And we haven't yet seen the "crazy blow-up phase" which normally marks a long cycle high. That's why I suggest still owning something. On the other hand, it is hard to see how HK will escape getting some sort of downturn, if China and the global economy turn sour in 2013-14. Where to buy, if you downsize, is a whole different discussion, and that is one I am pondering myself right now.

Here they are, the "unspun" numbers : -0.6%, Right in line with the official SA report from Halifax, Albeit the -0.60% is for "Haliwide", the Halifax/Nationwide Average Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% : Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : 151,633 : - 1.11% / 164,389 = n/a = 161,094 162,619 : £163,504 : - 0.60% :148.1% : ====================================== mom:- 1.68% : - 3.59% : Est.DI :: 147.2% / - 0.81% = n/a = :- 0.81% : - 0.38% : - 0.60% : I NOTE THAT: ====== + The -0.60% takes the trend back inside the Crash Cruise Speed range (again) + -0.60% is NSA, and is for July, which is normally a Seasonal peak month + Compares with recent July's NSA: 2011: +0.48% / 2010: +0.35% / 2009: +1.37% Overall, I would say "another Falling sequence has begun!" Strap on those seat belts, and we will see what we get into the UK winter.

Here they are, the "unspun" numbers : -0.6%, Right in line with the official report, Albeit the -0.60% is for "Haliwide", the Halifax/Nationwide Average Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 : +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 : - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% : J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% : Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : 151,633 : - 1.11% / 164,389 = n/a = 161,094 162,619 : £163,504 : - 0.60% :148.1% : ====================================== mom:- 1.68% : - 3.59% : Est.DI :: 147.2% / - 0.81% = n/a = :- 0.81% : - 0.38% : - 0.60% : I NOTE THAT: ====== + The -0.60% takes the trend back inside the Crash Cruise Speed range (again) + -0.60% is NSA, and is for July, which is normally a Seasonal peak month + Compares with recent July's NSA: 2011: +0.48% / 2010: +0.35% / 2009: +1.37% Overall, I would say "another Falling sequence has begun!" Strap on those seat belts, and we will see what we get

UK Halifax house price index -0.6% m/m August 6, 2012 at 07:02 GMT Pretty close to Reuters median poll of -0.5%. Index -0.6% y/y in 3 months to July, in line with Reuter’s median forecast (2) Forexpros - The UK.’s Halifax house price index fell more-than-expected last month, industry data showed on Monday. In a report, HBOS said that U.K. Halifax HPI fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.6%, from 1.0% in the preceding month. Analysts had expected U.K. Halifax HPI to fall -0.5% last month. === === Official Report ======== Key facts House prices in the three months to July were unchanged from the preceding three months. This represented an improvement on the previous month when this measure of the underlying trend reported a fall of -0.3%. House prices decreased by 0.6% in July. The decline in July followed two consecutive rises as prices continue to fluctuate on a monthly basis. So far this year, there have been four monthly rises and three falls. Marginal increase in prices so far this year. The average UK house price in July 2012 was 0.8% higher than in December 2011, at £161,094. Nationally, house prices are at a very similar level to the summer of 2009. Now I have to dig a bit, to correct for the spin

Maybe the London housing shortage is worse than we thought: Where are the Galactic Visitors going to stay? http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16613

You have way more confidence than I do in the monetary authorities. I think it is likely that problems in Europe will soon spread to the UK - we are already seeing problems with the banks. When that happens, I expect bank lending to get tighter, and rates to rise. What is interesting is that UK Property prices seem to be rolling over already, before banks tighten, and before rates rise. Add the negative impact of bank tightening, and the price fall will accelerate.

Yeah - that;s what I thought. UK Incomes are NOT KEEPING UP WITH INFLATION: EXCERPT Families are squeezed by rising prices and static wages "Real disposable incomes across the UK dropped to their lowest levels in nine years in the first quarter of this year, as families were squeezed by high prices and sluggish wage growth. Taking inflation into account, take-home income dropped by 1% on the quarter to reach £273 a week, the lowest level since 2003, an Office for National Statistics (ONS) study showed." With Real Incomes falling, how can you expect UK home prices to Hold up in Real Terms? (In other words, you cannot deflate home prices by your inflation measure.) The only thing that has allowed some home prices to rise, is the "trick" of the BofE in bring rates down to ultra-low levels, but even that trick has stopped working, and at some point rates will stabilise, and they will also rise again at some point. This is my fundamental argument for lower UK prices. Another argument relates to Sentiment, and I think that Sentiment will become increasingly Negative after the Olympics.

Yeah - that;s what I thought. UK Incomes are NOT KEEPING UP WITH INFLATION: EXCERPT Families are (being) squeezed by rising prices and static wages "Real disposable incomes across the UK dropped to their lowest levels in nine years in the first quarter of this year, as families were squeezed by high prices and sluggish wage growth. Taking inflation into account, take-home income dropped by 1% on the quarter to reach £273 a week, the lowest level since 2003, an Office for National Statistics (ONS) study showed." With Real Incomes falling, how can you expect UK home prices to Hold up in Real Terms? (In other words, if you want to use Incomes as a deflator, you cannot deflate home prices by the CPI inflation measure.) IMHO: The only thing that has allowed some home prices to rise, is the "financial represssion trick" of the BofE in bringing rates down to ultra-low levels, but even that trick has stopped working. I reckon that rates will soon stabilise, and at some stage, perhaps even within this year, rates will start rising again. This is my fundamental argument for lower UK prices. Another argument relates to Sentiment, and I think that Sentiment will become increasingly Negative after the Olympics.

Here's US Income - note the recent slowdown Here are two European countries - also slowing Anyone have the figures for the UK? I used to have them, but lost them when my computer crashed a few months ago Maybe someone can extract the figures from here: http://img.docstoccdn.com/thumb/orig/41706980.png == == "You’re forgetting rates are super low and falling..." Yeah, rates are falling. But Trees don't grow to the sky, and neither will bond yields go negative Despite this downwards trend, UK property prices are now easing. What if rates start to rise - which is inevitable. When that trend starts, it will be time to: Look out Below !

It is NOT the same thing at all ! For instance: Taxes are rising, and that crimps Net Income You may recall this old chart: The RED LINE might make some sense if Net Income was rising at a steady rate. It isn't, and that matters.

A completely useless measure. Why use that? (You are thinking like Bozo-the-clown, over on HPC - in other words, not really thinking.) The BEST thing to use is: an index of Net Income per capita, since that is from whence people pay their mortgages, that's what matters. And growth in that measure has been poor, less than CPI. If the prices of beans ( or gasoline, or food ) goes up fast, that doesn't help people pay a higher mortgage. In fact, slow growth in incomes, plus rapid growth in the price of other essentials, can leave LESS money in people's hands to pay mortgages. THAT is exactly what we have seen.

"Real" ?? What's that? Deflated by what, the CPI? Makes no sense whatsoever. If you deflate by Net Incomes, that makes some sense

EXCERPT “The weaker price trend observed in recent quarters is unsurprising, given the disappointing performance of the wider economy. Data released last week revealed that the UK recession intensified in the three months to July, with the economy contracting by 0.7% quarter on quarter. This disappointing outturn can be only partly explained by unusually wet weather and the impact of an extra bank holiday during the quarter. Indeed, the UK economy has contracted by 1.4% over the past nine months, and is now 4.5 percentage points smaller than it was in Q1 2008. “Against this difficult economic backdrop, it could be argued that UK house prices have shown resilience. While prices are currently 13% below their 2007 peak, this is less than the declines seen in a number of other economies that have experienced similar or more robust economic recoveries (see chart).”

(here we go!) UK Nationwide:House Prices Fall For Fourth Time In Five Months -- House Prices Down 0.7% m/m; Down 2.6% y/y LONDON (MNI) - House prices fell for the fourth time in five months in July, with the annual deflation rate the largest since August 2009, according to the latest House Price Index report from Nationwide. House prices declined by 0.7% in July, taking the annual pace of house price growth down to -2.6%. The data continue the recent pattern in house price surveys of sometimes volatile monthly movements and mild deflation on a yearly basis. The Nationwide survey follows the strikingly weak June mortgage approvals numbers from the Bank of England, which showed approvals - a good leading indicator of the future health of the house market - slumping to their lowest level since December 2010. In the Nationwide series the average house price in July stood at stg164,389, down from the stg165,738 level hit in June. In its report Nationwide said that the weaker price trend observed in recent quarters is unsurprising, given the disappointing performance of the wider economy. Commenting on the data, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said that it could even be argued that house prices have shown resilience in the face of a flagging economy. "While prices are currently 13% below their 2007 peak, this is less than the declines seen in a number of other economies that have experienced similar or more robust economic recoveries," he said /more: https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/index.php/uk-nationwidehouse-prices-fall-fourth-time-five-months?q=content/uk-nationwidehouse-prices-fall-fourth-time-five-months THE REPORT: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/July_2012.pdf "July stood at stg164,389, down from the stg165,738 level hit in June" Using my calculator, that's : - 0.81%, not -0.7%, as was reported REACTION: "Forexpros - The U.K.’s Nationwide house price index fell more-than-expected last month, data showed on Wednesday. In a report, , Nationwide Building Society said that said its index of U.K. house prices fell to -0.7%, from -0.6% in the preceding month. Analysts had expected the Nationwide HPI to fall -0.1% last month

WANTED: Journalists that understand statistics July 30th, 2012 Author: Dominic Dean aka The Misplaced Economist Read more: http://www.economicvoice.com/wanted-journalists-that-understand-statistics/50031460#ixzz22KbVPVUs EXCERPT ... The lead story in the paper I picked up was ‘House prices on the slide’. This surprised me, as I think house prices have broadly been going sideways for a few years now, so I read the article with interest. Once again I was left despairing at the state of British journalism. The article referred to the Hometrack house price index, which to start with is not an especially great series. Hometrack, like Nationwide and Halifax, measure house prices at the ‘mortgage approval’ stage, rather than when contracts or exchanged or transactions completed. Their data cover England and Wales, and are based on a survey of just 1,500 estate agents, who are of course one of the most honest and reliable sources of information around. (In contrast, Nationwide and Halifax actually track the loans they approve.) The Hometrack measure has also only been going since 2001 – among the pantheon of house price indices, it is not so much the little brother as the distant cousin. In terms of data sourcing, backrun and sample size, there are reasons to be cautious about taking it literally. What is more, the article actually referred to prices falling by just 0.1% in July 2012. Yes, that’s right – prices fell by a whopping one-thousandth of their value on the month. This was the first fall for seven months. Read more: http://www.economicvoice.com/wanted-journalists-that-understand-statistics/50031460#ixzz22Ka5sWxV LOL. Right. And if they'd been up by 0.1%, the headline might have been about HOME PRICES RISING. It shows the British obsession with house prices, though few who right about them, actually have anything sensible to say. When I examine THIS CHART A post-Olympics rollover looks very likely to me

WANTED: Journalists that understand statistics July 30th, 2012 Author: Dominic Dean aka The Misplaced Economist Read more: http://www.economicvoice.com/wanted-journalists-that-understand-statistics/50031460#ixzz22KbVPVUs EXCERPT ... The lead story in the paper I picked up was ‘House prices on the slide’. This surprised me, as I think house prices have broadly been going sideways for a few years now, so I read the article with interest. Once again I was left despairing at the state of British journalism. The article referred to the Hometrack house price index, which to start with is not an especially great series. Hometrack, like Nationwide and Halifax, measure house prices at the ‘mortgage approval’ stage, rather than when contracts or exchanged or transactions completed. Their data cover England and Wales, and are based on a survey of just 1,500 estate agents, who are of course one of the most honest and reliable sources of information around. (In contrast, Nationwide and Halifax actually track the loans they approve.) The Hometrack measure has also only been going since 2001 – among the pantheon of house price indices, it is not so much the little brother as the distant cousin. In terms of data sourcing, backrun and sample size, there are reasons to be cautious about taking it literally. What is more, the article actually referred to prices falling by just 0.1% in July 2012. Yes, that’s right – prices fell by a whopping one-thousandth of their value on the month. This was the first fall for seven months. Read more: http://www.economicvoice.com/wanted-journalists-that-understand-statistics/50031460#ixzz22Ka5sWxV LOL. Right. And if they'd been up by 0.1%, the headline might have been about HOME PRICES RISING. It shows the British obsession with house prices, though few who right about them, actually have anything sensible to say. When I examine THIS CHART A post-Olympics rollover looks very likely to me

Unless you are near convenient public transport TO JOBS, which then creates all sorts of arbitrage opportunities

To have your picture on the front page of the popular newsweekly was to be cursed. Whom the gods would destroy they first put on Time's cover I hadn't noticed the Lizard-like eyes before Mark Zuckerberg's Illuminati-Like Hoodie Reveals Facebook as the Cult That It Is by Amar Toor on June 7, 2010 At last week's D8: All Things Digital conference, Facebook CEO found himself sweating bullets while being grilled onstage by the Wall Street Journal's Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher. It got so bad, in fact, that Swisher felt compelled to ask him if he was OK, and suggested that he perhaps take off his trademark hoodie. "I never take it off," Zuckerberg reportedly replied. When he realized how obscene his perspiration had become, however, he relented, and Swisher helped him disrobe. As she was removing the sweaty garment, she noticed a giant emblem on the inside of the black hoodie, bizarre enough to prompt her to say, "What are you in, some kind of cult?" /more: http://www.switched.com/2010/06/07/mark-zuckerbergs-illuminati-like-hoodie-reveals-facebook-as-the/