drbubb

It sounds like you can afford it (so is does not sound reckless) But I reckon you will see cheaper prices, if you can wait 1-2 years, maybe 10-20% lower. But mortgage money may become LESS AVAILABLE in the future. If the UK is headed the way of Greece and Spain, prices could drop more than 20% I think buying Gold here, may be a far smarter move. Or maybe 75% Gold, and 25% Gold shares. You could double your money on Gold shares over the next 12-18 months

Does this surprise anyone here? It shouldn't... Homebuyers in Greater Manchester willing to pay a significant premium to be close to rail links £12,000 premium for a property 500m from the nearest station, compared with a similar property 1,500m away 65% of properties in Greater Manchester are within 1.5km of a Metrolink or railway station /see: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/NR/rdonlyres/B464EDCB-7155-4579-9DD8-B2F19E38D8D6/0/GreaterManchesterTransportSpecial2012.pdf (( Nationwide's July Index price comes out tomorrow ))

Boss of big gold mining company says gold needs to go up to $2000 per oz or miners will cut back "Mr Holland said rising energy, labour and production costs would virtually double costs in the next five years, and a gold price of close to $US2000 per ounce would be needed to keep pace. Advertisement If costs remain close to $US1600 where they have been in recent weeks, much of the industry would be "killed", he said, and many companies would have to pull back on projects. [link to www.smh.com.au]: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/gold-margins-getting-tight-says-gold-fields-chief-20120731-23cal.html

Kerry Cassidy's personal history Candid interview with Host Lee Patrick Hanks & Amara from EmergingNewWorld.com Speaking From the Heart w/ Kerry Cassidy coming from a different perspective and the Emergence of a New World View.....

In case you had forgotten the long list of Blair/Brown's "achievements": Are things really worse than 2009? Or is Britain merely facing reality?

Wealthy buyers are helping to prop up house prices in Wales where a two-tier housing market has emerged, according to analysts. Prices are up 2.4% on last year, according to LSL Acad Wales' House Price Index. Nigel Favas, managing director of Reeds Rains estate agents, part of LSL, said the rise was predominantly down to wealthier buyers and equity rich retirees. He said: “Given how difficult it is to get a mortgage at the moment, an annual rise in prices of 2.4% is a real victory for the housing market. Lower house prices in Wales have made it comparatively easier for first time buyers to get on the housing ladder than in England. "Predominantly, though, it is wealthier buyers and equity-rich retirees who are sustaining sales-levels, which has helped nudge up prices. It’s created a two tier market where prices tend to vary regionally depending on the number of wealthier buyers. Prices have held up well, and even seen significant increases, in areas with plenty of wealthier buyers, but have fallen in areas with more first time buyers. The main stumbling block to a fluid housing market is a chronic lack of mortgage finance. It is marooning first time buyers in the rental market, which keeps sales levels suppressed and stops house prices growing." /more: http://www.24dash.com/news/housing/2012-07-25-Wealthy-buyers-prop-up-Welsh-house-prices-as-two-tier-market-emerges

(new thread): Why I am against a Gold-backed currency Why protect the profits of Wealthy Gold Bugs? ================================= I thought this argument deserved a thread of its own. Some folks may unknowingly be supporting a huge wealth transfer for the rich-and-powerful. They already have too much power, why should we hand them even more wealth ? I own a fair amount of gold, and have protected a decent share of my own wealth, but I do not want to see an even greater concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few. And a new stronger currency linked to gold may play right into the hands of powerful elites. /see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16609

'Few signs' of house price rebound, says Nationwide House prices have recorded their weakest annual growth in nearly three years amid the "challenging" economy, the Nationwide said today. Prices slipped 1.5% year-on-year in June to £165,738 on average, the biggest fall since August 2009, according to the building society's latest house price index. The study suggested the decline, which also showed a 0.6% month-on-month decrease, was partly due to the ending of a stamp duty Actually, That was JUNE - one month ago. JULY should be out soon

Bigger slowdown coming (in GDP) as Olympics hits

How much worse? The BIG DIVE in Rightmove figures, usually comes in August. We may have seen it a month early this year, or August could be really bad

Mortgage approvals slump to a 15-year low as property purchases dive by a fifth 24 July 2012 | Mortgage approvals for house purchases fell to the lowest level for at least 15 years last month while house purchase approvals have dropped by a fifth compared to this time last year, statistics have revealed today. There were 51,610 mortgage approvals in June worth £6.5billion according to the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) figures - this is the lowest number of approvals it has on its records which stretch back to September 1997. Of these approvals, there were 26,269 agreements for house transactions worth a total of £4.2billion which represents a 41-month low - and these are down 20.5 per cent compared to this time last year. . . . Lenders had also been tightening their borrowing criteria in recent months and raising rates for new borrowers and more than a million existing ones, blaming the weak economy and increased costs of funding a mortgage. The Bank of England expects borrowers with lower deposits to have a particularly tough time taking out a mortgage in the coming months. However, the effects are hoped to be offset by the launch of its new funding for lending scheme aimed at pushing £80bn through to mortgage borrowers and businesses. Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight, says that rather than public holidays and wet weather, the weak performance is down to the stamp duty holiday ending. Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2178225/BBA-mortgage-approvals-slumped-15-year-low-June.html#ixzz21XvdAZW2 Just as REALITY was beginning to settle in, the BofE wants to distort it: "the effects are hoped to be offset by the launch of its new funding for lending scheme aimed at pushing £80bn through to mortgage borrowers."

Yes. indeed. I find it very curious that BTL-Speculators expect the market to go on delivering returns above interest rates, when Real Incomes are falling, and the economy is beginning to falter. If they had any sense, they would be EXITING IN A HURRY

APT Comparison ! Yes. These privileged parties pull in too much wealth, that's like "sucking blood" from the rest of the economy. In the end, they must be toppled. That's what people are realising now about the banksters. And it is probably also true about the (protected) BTL-investors

Those rates some attractive. But ultra-low long term rates in the US did not save market there

THIS IS COOL, and Classy Both performers gain from this joint appearance It is actually extra-cool that they are not on the same stage, since it points to a sort of time-warp connection that they now share. It helps my to recall the magic that was revealed when a very young Barbara Streisand first appeared on the scene. She has given so much, and lived her life in her own way. Now she helps to open up a new gift to the world - Through her work, and also through her connection to Jackie, she acheives mortality

WHY is the Hang Seng index like a Gold stock? Because it trades like one! (I stumbled across this surprising correlation when I was trying to explain to a HK friend how cheap Gold stocks were. Of course, Gold stocks look particularly cheap when compared with Gold, and it really makes little sense to compare HSI with Gold) In general, the HSI led the GDX. GDX / Major Gold stocks index vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI) ... update Does anyone have an explanstion for this surprising correlation ? PERHAPS it is because both Gold and HK property have been good "Safe Havens for Wealth" HUI / Unhedged Gold stocks vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI) ... update + Gold bottomed in 2001, a few months after HUI/Gold stocks bottomed + The Hang Seng Index bottomed in 2003, around the time that HK property prices bottomed

WRONG at the Top ? HOME OWNERS EXPECT PROPERTY PRICE RISE Home owners are optimistic about the economy with 63 per cent expecting property values to rise July 18,2012 .. Daily Express Reporter HOME owners are optimistic about the economy with 63 per cent expecting property values to rise over the next six months. The latest housing market sentiment survey from website Zoopla.co.uk, found just 18 per cent are predicting a drop in prices. . . . Ashley Alexander, managing director of estate agent review website MeetMyAgent.co.uk, said: “For the last year, we’ve had the calm after the storm. The hope is that there will be a flurry of activity in the property market once the Olympic Games are over, particularly as the effects of the Chancellor’s Funding for Lending scheme kicks in, and that this will provide more mortgages and some much-needed momentum.” /more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/333601/Home-owners-expect-property-price-rise

Here's a more traditional look: Year-on-Year changes + For Greater London + For UK-wide

Okay. But if you look at the actual data - this is amongst the larger moves down, and the Seasonally Big drops generally happen in August, rather than July. Greater London- Rightmove Seven Biggest Moves Down ==== #1 : -28,099 : -6.81% : Dec.07 #2 : -21,096 : -5.27% : Aug.08 #3 : -17,190 : -4.07% : Aug.10 #4 : -17,136 : -3.59% : July 12 #5 : -15,496 : -3.85% : Aug.09 #6 : -14,633 : -3.38% : Aug.11 #7 : -13,088 : -3.14% : Nov.09 The drop in July'12 was the 4th largest drop since 1999, in terms of GDP, 5th largest in percentage terms, and the only Big Drop to occur in July. Here are average Mo-by-Month changes === J 3,403 F 5,749 M 2,622 A 2,302 M 2,861 J 2,545 J 1,880 A -7,119 S 1,372 O 9,108 N 1,187 D -4,498 Next month may be interesting. Nov. and Dec., too.

"LARGEST DROP FOR FOUR YEARS" - Rightmove London down -3.6% in a Month - I call that a "crushing" fall Crushing an Apple Key points ========= + This month’s sellers cut asking prices by -1.7% (-£4,138) the largest price drop in July for four years + UK Wide: Only +2.3% up in the past 12 months + Greater London was down a "crushing" -3.6% (-£17,136) in one month ! + New sellers outnumber successful buyers by nearly 2:1, with miserable ‘viewing’ weather plus Olympic distractions adding to the ‘summer selling challenge’ + "The fact that we have not (yet) seen major price falls in the UK and that many areas are not awash with agents’‘For Sale’ boards may lead some sellers to be over-optimistic with their pricing, but it is vital that they are dispassionate and face up to what they have to do to get their property fit to sell. New seller numbers may be down some 30% on the period prior to credit-crunch," ==== ==== Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 : +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 : - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% : J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% : Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : = n/a = : Even so, London is 6.4% higher than July 2011. But that hardly covers closing costs.

If that is the aim, why make the loan available in Greater London?

From John Rubino - A good discussion about... WHERE WE ARE IN THE GLOBAL CURRENCY CRISIS "A coordinated effort stimulus effort by the Central Banks may not be far away." "Gold up by $200-300 and Silver by $10 in a single day" (is possible) "All the Nobel prizes seem to go to Keynesians who say: We have done enough (printing)"

I am not so optimistic as this Twelve more years for house prices to recover House prices will not recover their pre-crisis peak until 2024, according to analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers. The warning that the UK housing market is only at the start of a 17-year, inflation-adjusted slump came as the accounting firm predicted that the economy will flat-line this year before growing just 1.7pc in 2013. Average house prices will have bounced back to their 2007 high in cash terms by 2017, PwC said, but will need another seven years to catch up with inflation. By 2020, headline prices will be up 30pc but still 7pc below their real terms peak. Prices hit a record high of just over £197,000 at the end of 2007, according to the Halifax. Last month, the average house price was £162,417. Despite the prolonged slump, first time buyers will find it harder than ever to get on the property ladder due to the housing shortage and squeeze on consumer credit. PwC chief economist John Hawksworth said: “A single person leaving university today is unlikely to be able to afford their first house until their late 30s without financial assistance from their parents or others.” /more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/9393170/Twelve-more-years-for-house-prices-to-recover.html I think you need to see the bottom in place, before predicting the length of the rally. We should prices EVER catch up with the inflation adjusted peak? To see that, yo need a long period of incomes exceeding inflation. Maybe AFTER the coming long emmergency we could see that

Goldfinger was never the problem. But some of his followers were very rowdy and disturbed the main "research" task of this chatboard. Since those disruptive followers departed, GEI has been more harmonious, and the task of our few remaining Mods has been easier GF has posted his charts a few times in the last few months, but seems to have stopped visting on a regular basis.

Yeah? The market says: "So what ?!" - Rallies to over 142P, and then promptly SELLS OFF! BDEV: 135.40 -1.70 / Open: 137.10 / High: 142.287 / Low: 135.20 Volume: 3,482,411 Percent Change: -1.24% ... BDEV-chart Effectively saying: "Bubb's probably right; the best days may be behind BDEV." "Grab your profit while you still can. Take the money and run !" Let's see if that Bear mode continues beyond today.