drbubb

We Have SEEN...　　 THAT was at the 2009 LOW - 97% said No bounce coming. A Quote from NOW: The Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker monitors public sentiment towards the UK housing market and the results showed one in three people predict average UK house prices to rise this year. On the flipside, 23% expect a fall. The rest sat on the fence. Halifax says, this means, on balance, more people in Britain think house prices will rise than fall, revealing a positive House Price Outlook Score of +9 percentage points. Whether prices rise or fall the majority believe that any house price movement over the next year will be relatively small - 57% expect any change to be between +5% and -5%. A quarter believe there will be more significant changes in house prices, with increases and decreases of 5% or more. The survey also showed that half of respondents think it would be a good time to buy over the next three months – this is more than three times the number that felt it would be a good time to sell (14%). ／http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=536533&in_page_id=57#ixzz1OwnnpOqF

HONG KONG - UPDATED Property Charts /source: http://www.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm Bellwether : Henderson Properties (HK:12) ... update / HK1-CK : HK16-SHKP : HK83-Sino Note: HK12 never predicted the present breakout, which can be explained by: Ultra-low interest rates, and aggressive buying by Mainlanders OTHER:

"Collections" coming to Hong Kong ========== All the stuff that is overpriced, and cannot be sold elsewhere is finding its way to Hong Kong This week, or next, we see : + The London Collection, + The Vancouver Collection + Various other "opportunities" in KL, and Melbourne, Australia. Friends tell me that those other markets have peaked, and I find it a bit insulting that the agents think they can sell overpriced "collections" now in Hong Kong. Better leave your checkbook at home !

LOL. Aun contraire! More interested in selling. I own property nearby. And I want to see how far these new developments will carry the valuation. Actually, I think Long Beach represents the best value in relation to its neighbors, especially when you take into consideration the superb clubhouse, which has been voted one of the "Top 10 Best" in Hong Kong. I'm with you - I think he is nuts. It was the mainland Chinese who sold in panic in West Kowloon in late 2008, and made the area "ground zero" in the 2008 property crash. But they are good and useful buyers. If my place goes for my target price or higher, it may be thanks to a mainland buyer, possessing the sort of confidence you have described. But - who knows - maybe I am the one who has it wrong.

HK Land sale misses record - site on HK Island : Borrett Road Pre-auction estimates had been up to hk$ 15 Billion, a new record The site comes with a Maximum Gross floor area of 435,292 sf, is below the fog lne, and offers panoramic views. Cheung Kong won the auction at: HK$ 11.65 billion (= US$1.5 billion), that's HK$26,763 per sf, third highest on record. "This is a super-luxury location", said Victor Li, CK's deputy chairman

Imperial Cullinan is now looking "cheaper!" Acccording to reports today, a house on the peak sold at HK$96,000 per sf. The LUXEHOMES section of today's SCMP says: West Kowloon Rules "West Kowloon has outperformed other luxury districts in price gains, according to Savills. The property consulting firm says prices in West Kowloon have surged 138.8 per cent since 2008, better than the second best performers, Happy Valley and Jardine's Lookout."

Imperial Culinan has a showflat (or model at least) in Shenzhen, which opened before the one in ICC which opens next week, I believe. You can see OSS in the photo - just to the right. It is taller than IC. The "favored" Tower 8 of Imperial Cullinan is the one in the photo. It has a "better" view some think, but mostly blocks LB, apart from my friend's flat. Hong Kong Island is behind in the distance. The rest of Long Beach will go on sale soon.

From my friend's window in Kowloon: Looking down on: One of the most expensive flats in Asia ? A local agent has told me that the Flat under construction in the photo is being offered (by SHKP) at HK$50,000 psf. That's: + US$ 6,400 per sf + GBP 3,900 per sf Hong Kong property prices are mad. Let's see if the builder can achieve anywhere near that. Until a few months ago, the most expensive flat ever sold in Asia was HK$45,000 psf

...from a thread about Tung Chung property... It is hard to make much of a comment without seeing long term charts going back 2-3 Long cycles. You say: "Falls have been so big because Irish banks are trying to reduce the size of their loan book ." And that is the action that usually leads to the bottom - forced selling 3-5 years after the peak. Even so, the lows might stretch to 6-7 years, or property might "bump along the bottom" for most of/ all of the first 7 years of the next cycle. We saw something like that in Japan after its long cycle peak. /note: I will also post this on the Irish property thread, if I can find it.

It is hard to make much of a comment without seeing long term charts going back 2-3 Long cycles. You say: "Falls have been so big because Irish banks are trying to reduce the size of their loan book ." And that is the action that usually leads to the bottom - forced selling 3-5 years after the peak. Even so, the lows might stretch to 6-7 years, or property might "bump along the bottom" for most of/ all of the first 7 years of the next cycle. We saw something like that in Japan after its long cycle peak. /note: I will also post this on the Irish property thread

The peak in HK Property stocks was Long ago - and there has been a longer than normal time delay The Builder bellwether is working better in the UK and the USA

For this one, and an even more erratic post... I have had to suspend CTR for 30 days or more

Is that Oldham's financial centre? Impressive.

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They will have to live with relatives, or in very poor housing. Isn't this normal? Shouldn't it be normal? Someone who maintains a good relationship with his family deserves a better life than selfish and difficult loners, don't you think? Why have we forgotten that? (My attitude is more "MORAL" than those who think the taxpayer should pay, I believe) IN TOUGH TIMES of the 1930's ... The slowdown was aggravated by a collapse in credit. In the roaring twenties, it was easy to borrow money, for building new homes or buying new cars. Some, like my grandfather who had worked as a piano tuner, got credit beyond what that they could readily service. So when the work dried up, and money got tight, the payments became impossible. In the thirties, America became glutted with repossessed cars and houses for sale. Demand for new products faded, and the wheels of industry slowed to a crawl. With no pay coming in, my father's family lived for awhile on the property of his maternal grandfather, who was better off than they were. My father was very impressed by the apparent wealth of his grandparent: he possessed his own home and even a housekeeper. But there suddenly there were too many hopes riding on one old man. "There was not enough room in this grandfather's house for our entire family so we were forced to pitch a tent in the front yard. We had use of the house for tending to our personal needs and for some of our meals." /source: Lessons of the Grandparents, predicted hard times in 2005 (before the peak)

Welcome, Little ol Mo' You can start at any age. I look forward to you postings

But the Ponzi scheme that is the UK housing market and its generous benefits not last so long. It will collapse long before that. A few can "game the system" when it is a new game and not well understood, but when everyone wants to game it, it will collapse.

Estate Agents worry: an ugly truth may put people off. While some here think "all should be revealed."

Thread started on the interview: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14902

Only if you pay them off. It is a way of buying a property on an installment plan. Few folks hold until they make the last payment. Cash buyers make the last payment on day one.

Prices are cheap up North. If you are spending "london housing currency", you get plenty for your money.

All true. But I think there is somewhere between 7-10 million "excess" homes that need absorbing. IMHO: That will happen where the homes are near jobs, and/or in nice live-able (and walkable?) communities, but perhaps not in the outer ring suburbs, where homes may be worth "firewood" and no more, if there are no decent jobs nearby. Jobs, Jobs, and more jobs are needed in the US. But in the PRIVATE SECTOR where they add to the tax base, not in the public sector, where they diminish it. The US needs to get rid of the toxic politics and unfortunate tax system, which makes job creation so difficult IMHO.

Perhaps not quickly. In the US property prices have fallen so far, that it makes little sense to build new, but the government has continued to throw tax benefits towards the builders, even when it is clear no new supply is needed. In the UK the government has temporarily SUCCEEDED in propping up prices in London thanks to a combination of rental subsidies, other housing benefits, and ultralow rates. I do not think the game is sustainable, but that has not stopped them from trying.

I like the idea of living within a short walk of a station, but perhaps not right on the line. Convenience would wing out over a minor noise nuissance - assuming it was truly minor

No one really HAS TO BUY (no matter what) But due to Death, Divorce, or Forced Moves... some will find they HAVE TO SELL (no matter what) So I think the "stalemate" will resolve in favor of LOWER PRICES, especially if rates move higher, restraining the buyers.