drbubb

Uranium and other Energy stock ideas If you like Gold only, then please stay away .. charts ==================================== URANIUM and Uranium stocks, may be a cheaper alternative to Gold and Gold stocks. Let's discuss that here ... and other energy stocks too. Here's the Uranium etf, as traded in Toronto ... update : 12months : 10days If you "much prefer gold", then I wish you luck. (Really) But this thread is not for you. The idea was inspired by this posting on the other thread:

Dont kid yourself. Most of the Hedgies are in this for a quick buck, not the long term. The "long term story", is how they distribute their positions to retail. I would guess that 50% or more of the futures holders are short-term oriented. Remember last year !!

First round of stops hit. I am slightly surprised, since I though they might wait for the quiet time this afternoon in NY. But the sharp rally in the Dollar speeded up the timeframe

Welcome to Prechter's Primary Wave 3 down ! - and the world laughed. haha

Gold now: $1,172. Some bulls here may find themselves "Clawing the sky" I do have some puts on Gold stocks, and lightened up on my GLD call spread in recent days. But I cannot really claim to be short Gold. The fall could be sharp and scary, as I said yesterday.

Sure. This must have been planned. The dollar was pushed to fresh lows, getting everyone short going into the holiday, so they could "mug" the market on one of the quietest holidays of the year. Maybe Timmy is more clever than they gave him credit for. Perhaps he wants to keep his job?

Ice has been broken : $1.4988 / 90 ! (see FBB podcast thread) And this could be a very important reversal. Yesterday's rally in Euro, drop in the Dollar may have been a "false break", as I suspected. FTSE is down big: -5203.16 Change: -161.65 / Percent Change: -3.01% A big move

See: http://www.Tinyurl.com/EuroFalls If you read the postings, you will see how what might be a great call was ignored and sometimes rubbished

A pullback in Gold from a high this week could lead to a buying opportunity in Dec. or January Weekly Gold ... update

Collecting HangSeng & Henderson (HK:12) price data (Cal. 2009) 01/04/2009 : 15,043 - 2,698 : 30.35 :: 57.52 : 55.75 ... $2,565 / $2,649 01/11/2009 : 14,377 - 2,638 : 32.05 :: 57.51 : 55.94 ... $2,573 / $2,698 01/18/2009 : 13,256 - 2,533 : 29.20 :: 57.99 : 56.42 ... $2,595 / $2,612 01/25/2009 : 12,579 - 2,467 : 28.60 :: 58.38 : 56.87 ... $2,616 / $2,626 02/01/2009 : 13,278 - 2,535 : 30.15 :: 58.53 : 57.02 ... $2,623 / $2,612 02/08/2009 : 13,655 - 2,571 : 27.80 :: 58.35 : 56.75 ... $2,611 / $2,612 02/15/2009 : 13,555 - 2,561 : 26.50 :: 58.70 : 57.28 ... $2,635 / $2,656 02/22/2009 : 12,699 - 2,479 : 24.65 :: 58.62 : 57.02 ... $2,623 / $2,545 03/01/2009 : 12,812 - 2,490 : 26.20 :: 59.45 : 57.78 ... $2.658 / $2,732 03/08/2009 : 12,221 - 2,432 : 25.00 :: 59.47 : 57.87 ... $2,662 / $2,660e 03/15/2009 : 12,002 - 2,410 : 25.00 :: 59.74 : 58.25 ... $2,680 / $2,742 03/22/2009 : 13,131 - 2,521 : 26.90 :: 59.43 : 57.90 ... $2,663 / $2,540 03/29/2009 : 14,120 - 2,614 : 29.90 :: 60.20 : 58.71 ... $2,701 / $2,595 =Rise from L: xx.x% : xx.x% : xx.x% :: 6.15%: 7.30%: MMI x46 / xx.x% 04/05/2009 : 14,522 - 2,651 : 32.45 :: 60.10 : 58.48 ... $2,690 / $2,692 04/12/2009 : 14,901 - 2,686 : 33.65 :: 60.66 : 59.20 ... $2,723 / $2,722 04/19/2009 : 15,583 - 2,746 : 35.35 :: 61.50 : 60.06 ... $2,763 / $2,695 04/26/2009 : 15,214 - 2,714 : 34.80 :: 62.83 : 61.29 ... $2,819 / $2,683 05/03/2009 : 15,521 - 2,741 : 36.50 :: 63.08 : 61.43 ... $2,826 / $2,781 05/10/2009 : 17,390 - 2,901 : 39.65 :: 64.34 : 62.48 ... $2,874 / $2,634 05/17/2009 : 16,791 - 2,851 : 37.20 :: 64.30 : 62.56 ... $2,878 / $2,787 05/24/2009 : 17,063 - 2,874 : 39.75 :: 64.35 : 62.72 ... $2,885 / $2,804 05/31/2009 : 18,171 - 2,966 : 46.80 :: 65.49 : 63.62 ... $2,926 / $2,944 06/07/2009 : 18,680 - 3,007 : 48.25 :: 65.00 : 63.18 ... $2,906 / $2,881 06/14/2009 : 18,890 - 3,024 : 45.85 :: 65.82 : 64.07 ... $2,947 / $2,874 06/21/2009 : 17,921 - 2,945 : 41.80 :: 67.11 : 65.49 ... $3,013 / $2,967 06/28/2009 : 18,600 - 3,000 : 44.50 :: 68.42 : 66.77 ... $3,071 / $2,955 =Rise from L: xx.x% : xx.x% : xx.x% :: 20.6%: 21.9%: MMI x46 / xx.x% 07/05/2009 : 18,203 - 2,968 : 43.70 :: 67.59 : 65.59 ... $3,071 / $2,906 07/12/2009 : 17,708 - 2,928 : 41.65 :: 68.46 : 66.52 ... $3,060 / $2,948 07/19/2009 : 18,806 - 3,017 : 44.80 :: 68.62 : 66.73 ... $3,070 / $2,996 07/26/2009 : 19,983 - 3,110 : 47.55 :: 68.71 : 66.89 ... $3,077 / $3,043 08/02/2009 : 20,573 - 3,156 : 51.20 :: 69.44 : 67.10 ... $3,087 / $3,140 08/09/2009 : 20,375 - 3,140 : 48.75 :: 69.51 : 67.33 ... $3,097 / $3,088E? 08/16/2009 : 20,893 - 3,180 : 47.80 :: 70.12 : 67.62 ... $3,111 / $3,206 +7.00% in mo.! 08/23/2009 : 20,199 - 3,127 : 47.10 :: 70.79 : 68.50 ... $3,151 / $3,084 08/30/2009 : 20,099 - 3,119 : 47.05 :: 70.72 : 68.31 ... $3,142 / $3,311 09/06/2009 : 20,319 - 3,136 : 48.30 :: 72.64 : 70.38 ... $3,237 / $3,250e 09/13/2009 : 21,161 - 3,200 : 51.05 :: 72.06 : 70.07 ... $3,223 / $3,195 09/20/2009 : 21,623 - 3,235 : 51.50 :: 72.18 : 70.05 ... $3,222 / $3,120e 09/27/2009 : 21,024 - 3,190 : 49.75 :: 72.92 : 70.95 ... $3,264 / $3,278 =Rise from L: xx.x% : xx.x% : xx.x% :: xx.x%: xx.x%: MMI x46 / xx.x% WeekEnded : HangSI- SQx22 : Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC 10/04/2009 : 20,375 - 3,140 : 48.60 :: 72.70 : 70.81 ... $3,257 / $3,096 10/11/2009 : 21,499 - 3,226 : 51.75 :: 73.80 : 71.57 ... $3,292 / $3,257 10/18/2009 : 21,930 - 3,258 : 53.55 :: 73.37 : 71.38 ... $3,283 / $3,283 10/25/2009 : 22,590 - 3,307 : 55.30 :: 73.39 : 71.16 ... $3,273 / $3,247 11/01/2009 : 21,753 - 3,245 : 55.80 :: 73.74 : 71.30 ... $3,280 / $3,150 (Dist.$2,150?) 11/08/2009 : 21,830 - 3,250 : 56.30 :: 73.52 : 71.20 ... $3,275 / $3,161 11/15/2009 : 22,554 - 3,304 : 53.95 :: 73.91 : 71.42 ... $3,285 / $3,304 11/22/2009 : 22,456 - 3,297 : 54.20 :: 73.56 : 71.05 ... $3,xxx / $3,304 11/29/2009 : 21,135 - 3,128 : 51.70 :: 72.61 : 70.00 ... $3,220 / $3,157 12/06/2009 : 22,498 - 3,346 : 59.15 :: 73.03 : 70.87 ... $3,260 / $3,110 12/13/2009 : 21,902 - 3,307 : 57.80 :: 72.79 : 70.61 ... $3,248 / $3,293 12/20/2009 : 21,176 - 3,201 : 55.00 :: 72.xx : 70.xx ... $3,xxx / 12/27/2009 : 2x,xxx - 3,xxx : 5x.xx :: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historica...p;x=36&y=22 CCest = Sqrt(HSI) x22 SQRT calcs ======== : HSIhk : SQRT 10/04/2009 : 20,375 142.73 = 3,140 / - 3,140 : 48.60 :: 72.70 : 70.81 ... $3,257 / $3,096 10/11/2009 : 21,499 146.63 = 3,226 / - 3,226 : 51.75 :: 73.80 : 71.57 ... $3,292 / $3,257 10/18/2009 : 21,930 148.09 = 3,258 / - 3,258 : 53.55 :: 73.37 : 71.38 ... $3,283 / $3,283 10/25/2009 : 22,590 150.30 = 3,307 / - 3,307 : 55.30 :: 73.39 : 71.16 ... $3,273 / $3,247 11/01/2009 : 21,753 147.49 = 3,245 / - 3,245 : 55.80 :: 73.74 : 71.30 ... $3,280 / $3,150 11/08/2009 : 21,830 147.75 = 3,250 / - 3,249 : 56.30 :: 73.52 : 71.20 ... $3,275 / $3,161 11/15/2009 : 22,554 150.18 = 3,304 / - 3,264 : 53.95 :: 73.91 : 71.42 ... $3,285 / $3,304 11/22/2009 : 22,456 149.85 = 3,297 / - 3,295 : 54.20 :: 73.56 : 71.05 ... $3,268 / $3,300e 11/29/2009 : 21,135 145.38 = 3,198 / - 3,128 : 51.70 :: 72.61 : 70.00 ... $3,220 / $3,157 12/06/2009 : 22,498 149.99 = 3,300 / - 3,346 : 59.15 :: 73.03 : 70.87 ... $3,260 / $3,110 12/13/2009 : 21,902 147.99 = 3,256 / - 3,307 : 57.80 :: 72.79 : 70.61 ... $3,248 / $3,293 12/20/2009 : 21,176 145.52 = 3,201 / - 3,201 : 55.00 :: 72.xx : 70.xx ... $3,xxx / 12/27/2009 : 2x,xxx - 3,xxx : 5x.xx ::

I hadnt seen this report before, but it illustrates the Fraud which helped to prop up UK Property prices in 2005-7, by fiddling prices put in the LandRegistry. I think this was more widespread than people realise: BBC Panorama Bursting the House Price Bubble Part1 - 04\02\08 / Jeremy Vine http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PL97yAE7PQw Bubble Part2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O42nqzUL13k It makes me wonder if there may be some similar elements of fraud, helping to ramp up present prices

This could be progress - (FSA needs to cap LTV) FSA treats mortgage lenders like 'drug dealers', says CML chief Britain's financial regulators see lenders as “drug-dealers at the school gates”, the head of the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said in an astonishing attack on the Financial Services Authority. FSA sees lenders as 'drug-dealers at the school gates', says CML chief Matthew Wyles. Hitting back at the idea that lenders are “evil” and reckless, Matthew Wyles said the industry should be allowed to treat its customers as adults, respecting their right to make their own decisions. He said: “I have a sneaking suspicion that it’s the way that regulators see consumers – as wanton children who have a tendency to want what isn’t necessarily good for them, and for whom Nanny knows best. “Increasingly, I also have the feeling that regulators see lenders and intermediaries as the sweetshop owners – or worse, the drug-dealers at the school gates – of the mortgage market, enticing innocent consumers in and then getting them hooked, for their own evil profit-driven purposes.” Speaking at the CML’s conference, he said the FSA was at risk of creating “the kind of moral hazard it wishes to avoid”, by making consumers feel they need to take no responsibility for their own decisions. /more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...-CML-chief.html

THE CHEQUE is "in the mail". Sure, Fergus ! The Daily Mail has learned the couple are up to £350,000 in arrears on their monthly mortgage payments with one lender. Mortgage Express, owned by Bradford & Bingley, has sent a final warning letter to the couple, who are believed to have 177 of their properties mortgaged with the bank. The letter means the Wilsons must find the money quickly or risk a large chunk of their Kent-based property empire being seized. Racehorse fanatic Mr Wilson, 61, says he is an innocent victim of the postal strike. Unusually, he pays his mortgage by cheque - and says the money has been delayed in the post. He insisted recently: 'We are not a penny behind on our loan payments.' Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...l#ixzz0WotoCYNR Link to SP thread: http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/thread/924823.aspx == == from another thread there / Why the Minor Pain in the UK - versus a 30%+ drop in the US? http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/925585/...ead.aspx#925585 Zulu, You talk like owning properties is a good thing. (?) It is, only if the price is rising fast enough to make up for a loss. Now presently, the loss relative to renting is small, and maybe if you are lucky, the interest cost of owning could be slightly less than renting. Which means the homeowner is slightly better off than renting, without any increase in house prices. This (temporary) condition, and the expectation of some HP inflation has encouraged some to buy. If they re very lucky, within 12-18 months, the savings may be enough to cover the transaction costs of: stamp tax, legal fees, bank fees, etc. You have to be a real optimist, to see this as a way to make money. Now what happens if interest rates rise just a little, like 1%? The cost of owning probably pushes up over the cost of renting, and at the same time, higher rates will discourage buying, and bring home values down. The slide will resume. Suddenly all those who bought in 2009, who were hoping to save their transaction costs, will suddenly find themselves with a loss. And some may be trapped in negative equity. This is the big "rug pull" trap, that is awaiting today's homebuyers. They are going to feel like they were tricked - all because they failed to think ahead, and did not understand the risks that they were buying into.

(As posted just now on the Yelnick thread): I think we have just seen an important low in the US dollar, and high in the Euro. If the thrust continues, you are likely to see selling accelerate in stocks. I have spent several hours constructing a thread to help my fellow GEI friends track the emerging downwards move in the Euro : http://tinyurl.com/EuroFall

Potential Troubles for the Euro? - the Euro is 51% of USD, the trade-weight Dollar's basket + Many european countries find it tough to compete with the US and China with the Euro at/near $1.50 + No single country has full responsibility, standing behind the Euro, and would be able to raise interest rates and taxes to sustain its value. Who is its backer of last result? + The credit crisis is a global phenomenon, and the European banks are more levered than US banks, and have done less than the US banks to repair their balance sheets + European banks, and macro hedge funds have used the dollar as a borrowing currency for "carry trade purchases" of Euro denominated loans, equities, and property. When the dollar turns higher, there may be a sudden urgency to cover thos loans, which will mean selling down the assets for Euros, and using the Euros to buy dollars. This will put upwards pressure on the Dollar, and downwards pressure on the Euro. + East European countries like Latvia, Estonia, and Bulgaria, waiting to come into the European community are in serious financial crises, and their major lenders are mostly European banks /source of some of this: http://seekingalpha.com/article/98895-big-...es-for-the-euro == == == This interview from Financial Sense, makes many relevant points about the future strength of the Dollar / weakness of the Euro. Jeffrey M. Christian, Founder (CPM Group) Topic: Gold Fundamentals ... and the Dollar MP3 : http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-1107-3b.mp3 Although Christian expects stocks to go to SPX-1200 and Gold to $1200 per ounce within this year. if you listen carefully and with a contrarian frame of mind, you will hear many points which sound very bullish for the Dollar. + JC expects a pop in the USD of 10% or more, sometime next year when the US economy begins to recover + He thinks in the next up-phase could take US interest rates to 7% or more + Central banks and big funds have now turned buyers of Gold (the record shows CB's buy at the top) Q: If these guys are so smart, why have they waited for Gold to rise 4x before buying? Jim Puplava, in reference to : John Paulson, Einhorn, and Tudor Jones ... says "these guys arent day traders". Well, they are bigger than day traders, but frankly, they are not known for being buy-and-hold investors, and then tend to exit positions quickly, when they go against them. === See the new thread : Euro - The inevitable descent towards Zero?

...it is so relevant, I thought I would post this comment from Y. here... I, and his NeoWave followers got totally crushed. It was extremely painful. I lost a lot of trading capital on that forecast, Hey, man, I feel your pain. Trust me, I know what losses are like and they are definitely painful, but they are also the only tuition the market will accept. If your key takeaway from it was to never use NeoWave again, that's obviously your prerogative. I also had a big loss in 2007 when Neely was calling for a big rally. I did buy options and when we had that big dump in February/March, they expired worthless. The problem was clearly me, though, especially my selection of trading vehicle. Obviously, had I just gone long ETFs, I would have been able to benefit from the rally that ensued following that minor blip. OK, my fault, clearly. And DG says that Neely was merely early? Early from what??? And DG goes on to claim that Neely will still be right at some point because "it is essentially reflective of what will happen" . . . Are you kidding me??? He's been wrong and is now calling for much higher S&P targets! "Early" in the sense that the pattern he thought was coming to and end was actually only the first five segments of a seven-segment pattern, rather than the five segments of a five-segment pattern. That's my current hypothesis, anyway, and the market hasn't done anything to "break" that count. If that hypothesis turns out to be correct, the call for new lows will be proven out and we'll go under the March 2009 lows at some point in 2010. The pattern allows for a move to over 1200 before this occurs. I will say this. I left my job in July to trade full-time. I study markets and charts a minimum of 12-14 hours a day. I plot my own NeoWave intraday charts in Excel, entering all the data by hand, to keep a finger on the market's pulse. I watch almost every tick of every trading day, then when the cash market closes, I watch the futures, then watch the foreign markets overnight. This is on top of constantly reading and re-reading Mastering Elliott Wave and Neely's other publications. I'd be interested to see what others who are saying they can't get wave theory to work for them are doing in those areas. Neely is always my starting point for my view of the markets because his analysis is so methodical and provides a great base to work with. But, it's still just that, a starting point. After Neely's top call failed, I decided that I was going to start being more aggressive making my own NeoWave-based trades. Since then, I've made 41 trades and had 36 winners/5 losers, with an average holding period of about 5 days. There were 10 trades that I should have taken, but subjectively allowed myself to talk myself out of. All 10 were winners. Depending on whether I include the trades I should have taken or not, I'm running at a 50-70% annual rate of return. On a fully-leveraged basis (taking advantage of full margin), my rate of return would be about 400% annualized. So, you tell me why I should listen to anyone's complaints about Neely when I'm getting results like that, even if only for a 4-month period? Posted by: DG | Tuesday, November 10, 2009 at 09:55 AM /see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11...e.html#comments

From Neely an hour ago / actually: yesterday "So far, the S&P is following the reddashed projection line almost exactly. That gives the “wave-( B ) isn’t over” scenario greater weight, which means one more, larger rally is underway. If correct, I would expect a top near the 1200 level. Optimism should get very high by then, allowing us to go Short." Says nothing about 1093, so there...Point being, he's calling for another 10% upside. Posted by: Ed | Monday, November 09, 2009 at 11:30 AM 2/ Neely is calling for further upside IF a specific condition gets hit. As of now, he's saying the market can go either way until it crosses one of two lines. That's the proper context to put his update in. If we don't cross that line and then don't rally another 10%, you can't say he was wrong because he clearly made crossing that line a precondition. Again, I don't understand what is so difficult about reporting facts and forecasts in context. Posted by: DG | Monday, November 09, 2009 at 11:37 AM /see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11...e.html#comments

Gold is underperforming. It should be much higher, with the Dollar so weak At a trendline top? Gold-in-Euros may show it more clearly Nothing here rules out a breakout. That remains a possibility

"...an article from today (Sunday’s) London Financial Times, possibly the most influential newspaper in the world (sorry cheerleading Wall Street Journal, you’re not it). It’s title is “Why gold is certain to move higher” Haha. Who is doing the cheerleader here? If the WSJ had published the bullish-to-Gold article, they would have been "possibly the most influential newspaper in the world"

GOLD and COT data... My eyeballs see this Let's check and see how accurate that is... It works rather well ... Gold chart update In contemplating what may come next, I make a comparison with the gold breakout in 2005/6, and I see that gold ran higher (by over $200?) after the Commercial shorts had hit its maximum - was this short-covering? That may happen again, and if it does, Gold may not be done yet. But if the Commercials are not forced to cover, then Gold could be done at/near $1100. An interesting golden battleground, we are in now.

Dollar bulls were obviously disappointed by the Fed's No Action decision, and the Dollar fell all the way back to support near 75.50, where it closed a gap. If it can hold that level through the week and into the meeting this weekend, then the something useful could come out of the meeting. If it slides into the meeting, that would put some more pressure on the US at the meeting Interesting to see stocks give up their gains, despite the weak dollar - good for my puts. I actually added some more Dec.109 puts in early trading, replacing the Nov.111 puts I had sold, at a better price == Fun and Games? Hope you are short. We may be about to begin 3 of 3 ! (per TonyC): Today's rally carried the SPX right into the OEW 1061 pivot. This rally has been choppy from monday's SPX 1029 low, which is exactly what was expected. The 32 point rally is fairly close to a 50% retracement of the 72 point decline from SPX 1101 to 1029. The market did get overbought on the hourly and short term charts, which is what should be expected during a Minor wave 2. Also, we might consider this an ABC rally as well. The short term charts indicate that the market has turned over and Minor wave 2 may be complete. FOMC days are often retraced the following day. So tomorrow's action should confirm if Minor wave 2 is still ongoing, or Minor wave 3 is underway. Best to your trading! /more: http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ I must get into the EWI site (Free Week !, see above): http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=affem...mp;cn=goldstock ... and see Hochberg sees 3of3 is underway. (If the SPX is headed into a crash, I would be astounded to see Gold hold up.) I will be at a conference all day, so will not be able to check until later. Maybe some can have a look, and post a comment here

GOLD / GLD is seeing some decent volume on its move up today ... update The trading day is still young, as we are seeing some new highs in GLD Apparently, India bought some serious number of Gold ounces from the IMF

Look carefully... Back at October 2008. There was a bizarre show of strength in Gold then too. As stocks slid, Gold moved higher at first. A sort of "last gasp" flight to gold as a "safe haven." Then it collapsed. The next few days (and weeks?) are going to be interesting, especially if stocks slide, and gold goes on rising today. Here's a close-up of that former period: Sept-Nov.2008 ... update Compare to: Sept-Nov.2009 ... update There were 2-4 consecutive days of "bizarre" gold moves in 2008, and we have seen 1 day or far (Friday) in 2009. Maybe bizarre moves will last into mid-week. Gold versus UK & US stocks : 10day Updated chart

It looked bizarre to me too until I saw this: Look carefully... Back at October 2008. There was a bizarre show of strength in Gold then too. As stocks slid, Gold moved higher at first. A sort of "last gasp" flight to gold as a "safe haven." Then it collapsed. The next few days (and weeks?) are going to be interesting, especially if stocks slide.

No problem to have it posted here. But, as I said, the logic looks strained to me, and I thought that should be pointed out.