drbubb

I believe they have started (or will soon start) some cautious selling down, but I cannot provide any details Here's a chart on the Gold price Long Term Weekly chart ... update-Weekly Gold-2000 To me, a pullback to the 52wk.MA near Gold-$850-870 would be very healthy here, and so might be a drop to near $800, which just touches the bottom of the channel. We saw something like that in mid-2007 before Gold took off.

I dont buy that. Have you studied the COT report data? You should do that before going too far into these theories. I find it most enlightening. BTW, how do you think the CB's short gold, if not thru the banks and the futures market? Here's my latest Swing chart, which I have now pushed back to the end of 2007: To me, it looks like Gold could be about to collapse. It is only be propped up by the enthusiasm of the Large Specs (per this chart). If they turn sellers, perhaps because of a easing of QE stimulus, ie low rates are jacked up, then we could see a swift drop in gold, and it might even overwhelm the usual seasonal influences.

Jim seems to find ways of making a bullish argument at most times, as this interview will show: Lara Crigger, associate editor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Crigger): In a recent commentary, you predicted gold will soon climb above $1,000/oz and stay there. Why do you think so? Turk: I expect it to happen fairly soon, maybe September, October. Really, I've been expecting it all this year, and there's finally enough momentum now in the gold market, I think, to take it higher. The reason is really quite simple: When you debase the dollar, you're going to get a higher gold price. And the federal government and Federal Reserve are clearly on a path where the dollar is being debased. The government is spending and borrowing too much, and the Federal Reserve is just churning out currency. In that kind of environment, a higher gold price can be expected. Actually, that's what's happened all decade long. Gold's up eight years in a row, at an average annual return of 16.3%. This is the ninth year gold is up, and it looks like it's going to finish out the year even higher than it is at present. Crigger: Can gold really keep up this pace? Turk: The real question is: Can the Federal Reserve keep destroying the purchasing power of the dollar? The answer is probably yes. So as a consequence, the gold price will continue to go higher. The $1,000 level is very significant, in that it's going to be like an international "buy" signal. As well as gold has done this decade, it's still not being widely followed. It's not really on many people's radar screens. But once it goes over $1,000, that will be a worldwide news event that will attract a lot of attention to the gold market. Crigger: Right; people will see that $1,000 price point and think, "I've got to get my hands on that right now." Turk: Exactly. Certain levels are important psychological points. For example, look at the Dow Jones Industrial and how long it took to get above 1,000. Then, when it finally did break above 1,000 in 1983, it just kept going. Obviously there was some backing and filling along the way, but that major uptrend lasted for 17 years. So when gold goes through $1,000, I expect it will just keep going as well. There's already been a decade-long bull market, and I think we've got many, many years left before this bull market breathes its last. Crigger: Why do you think gold will breach $1,000 in September or October, specifically, versus any other time? Turk: Normally, autumn is gold's seasonal strong point. There's a lot of buying because of various holidays in different parts of the world. Plus, people are coming back from the summer holidays, and they're looking at what's happened while they were gone. They'll see that the dollar's been debased, so they'll go and buy the metals. Also, my reading of the charts for gold (and silver, for that matter) is suggesting that the sideways action we've been seeing, the backing and selling and the base building, is coming to a conclusion. It looks to me like September or October is really the ideal time frame to see gold break above $1,000. /more: http://seekingalpha.com/article/156138-wil...ticle_lb_author == == == Actually, the state of the COT figures and the probability of another deflationary downswing this autumn is making me LESS BULLISH on Gold than I expected to be at this stage

Using more data now, and revised to a 64% neutral swing point From the Gold Watch section of GEI-N.com: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7266 Now I would say: "The latest Swing of $103.xx is not cheap, and the Choke of 430.0 is still near a Bearish extreme."

Marc Faber is Bullish on the Dollar Now - here's why... When the S&P bottomed in March, the dollar was weak, notes Faber, who expects the next few months will be a period of dollar recovery and “a correction time in asset markets” as the dollar strengthens. “The strong dollar means global liquidity tightening,” Faber told CNBC. “In a scenario where growth will be disappointing, I think emerging markets will be kind of vulnerable.” . . . Sentiment in currency markets seems to be lining up behind the dollar, but if the Fed provides some indication that its quantitative easing and stimulus program will end, the pace of the dollar's acceleration will slow, says Greg Salvaggio, vice president at Tempus Consulting. "Should that wording emerge, I think you're going to see people quickly run for the exits on short dollar positions," Salvaggio told The Wall Street Journal. The Fed on Wednesday extended its extraordinary efforts to support the economy through October. It had planned to end them in September. It left the benchmark rate near zero, as expected. /more: http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/fa.../13/247459.html

Jim has been far too bullish on gold for a long time. If he had been right, it would be well above $1,000 now, not under pressure and on its way (maybe) back to $900 or lower. Jim used to work at Chase too, but left many years before I did, and he was in a different part of the bank. So he did not have the same access to the gold traders as recently as I did. (And my access was several years ago too, by now.) I am not saying that Jim doesnt know how the gold markets work, but I do think that he and Gata make too much of the idea of gold manipulation. There is LESS of that going on than Gata would have you believe. And let me ask you this, if the governments keep selling gold to depress the price, then surely at some point they would run out of gold to sell. If not, then they must be buying back the gold they sell short to manipulate the price. So when does that happen, and why do we not hear Gata talking about government manipulators buying gold?

JUSTICE ? Mortgage lenders turn backs on those in ‘risky’ businesses Mortgage lenders are routinely blacklisting buyers according to their occupations, with applications from workers in property and finance at the top of the reject pile. Brokers said yesterday that there was an “almost blanket ban” on staff in certain jobs, including high income earners, despite an apparent upturn in the housing market and a rush of interest from hopeful buyers. In a twist for some of those regarded as responsible for the boom, the borrowers who are most likely to face rejection today are property developers, closely followed by investment bankers and hedge fund managers. Any person that a bank considers at higher than average risk of redundancy or other loss of income could be denied a loan purely on the basis of their job and will be considered only if they can provide a huge deposit, plus proof of stable income and assets from other sources. High income earners are increasingly being refused if a proportion of that income is based upon commission or a bonus, brokers said. They added that lenders now take into account which bank a borrower works for, with those in “safer” banks such as Barclays more likely to be approved than someone who works for Citigroup, for example. Applications from property developers would be declined in 95 per cent of cases, according to Knight Frank Finance, while estate agents, surveyors and — ironically — mortgage brokers, also face greater scrutiny of their financial affairs than those in lower-risk jobs, such as doctors and accountants. Simon Gammon, of Knight Frank Finance, said: “The biggest hit has been for workers in the property industry. Next are investment bankers, although it depends which bank.” Mark Harris, a director of Savills Private Finance, another broker, said: “There has been an almost blanket ban on developers, closely followed by investment bankers. Lenders are not yet showing signs of adjusting to improvements in the market.” /more: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6797069.ece = = = One investment banker said: “I applied for a 65 per cent loan for £650,000 from RBS for a five-bedroom detached house in Essex. It was a bit of a surprise to be rejected. Even though my salary is six figures, a significant part of that is a bonus. I can understand why lenders are doing what they are doing, but ultimately they will lose out if they don’t lend to big earners in the City. The culling at my bank has now finished, so I should be safe.” Haha. Maybe not. Pity he did not buy in the current INCREASED Price market

I'm going to redo this chart The 68% level, which I used as the mid-point of adjustments may be too high. It could be better to use 64% Current levels will look like they have even more "fat"

Gold Watch - Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Anticipating Gold's next move, using sentiment swings /see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7266 Comments please, on how clear the descriptions there are. (I think the the Swing and Choke indicators could prove very useful to all Gold traders) The latest Swing of $96.97 is not cheap, and the Choke of 430.0 is near a Bearish extreme

The Bullion banks sit between the Short futures and the hedging Gold producers. I believe that the lion's share of the Gold Futures shorts consist of banks that have a short in the Futures to cover the long position they have from buying gold forward from mining companies. They have to hedge those gold loans someplace! Of course, at times the Bullion banks see opportunities to INCREASE their shorts in order to make some trading profits. So when the Hedgies come in and Bid the market high, some of the selling may come from position-taking by the banks. And some may come from gold miners topping up their bullion loans at higher gold prices. The banks know what levels the miners are looking to sell, so they have a big advantage over all the other traders. I used to report to the same guy, who was the boss of the biggest bullion bank in the world, and I would sometimes talk to the bullion traders there. They would just laugh at the Gold conspiracy theories, saying that "those guys just don't understand how the gold business works."

Prechter speaks: Bob Prechter is cautious: Trouble area- 50% move is big enuff. 88% bulls very high: set-up to be fooled. wave 3 cud be quick, when it starts (on Twitter.com/DrBubb ) He's bullish on the dollar, after only 3% Bulls. There "could be a rally of one year." He thinks "all those dollar IOU's" could trigger the rally. Dollar strength likely to be accompanied by tumbling stocks & gold. He sees a clear 5 wave decline in the dollar, and it is now due for an upturn.

He's traveling. A 'round the world reward for being a bear last year

?? Wealth taxes exist in Sweden. I would rather tax property wealth than income, but the vested interests would fight that

I like the look - are they expensive? Do you think there's enough to demand to sell through chains? I'm not sure that "showing off" one's Gold holdings in presentation boxes is a wise thing to do. I used to keep some precious metals coins in the fridge, looking like packaged food. But now I use a bank vault

There is one possibility... I wont bet on this, since it is a very rare occurance: The Large Specs (Hedge Funds) might BEAT the Commercials. If price rose far enough, and fast enough, the commercial might at some stage be driven to cover. I think this is unlikely, because on the other side of at least SOME of those big shorts, are mining companies that own the Gold in the ground, and they can simply deliver gold production into their shorts. Normally the Commercials win. The price drops, and they can cover their "excess shorts" at a lower price. Within this year (since January), we have seen, Commercial Shorts vary from ==== : CmlShts: =Pct= ( GLD at / Day ) L.Spec.Longs High . : -385,177: 70.0% (90.95- 24.Mar) 185,442 Low .. : -299,023: 63.8% (86.89- 21.Apr) 166,953 Latest : -370,114: 71.3% (94.68- 04.Aug) 223,607 -2nd highest of year! The way I think of it: The rise in Commercial shorts, is as if they are trying to "slap down" the price. There is probably, a limit on the extent to which Large Specs (Hedgies) are willing to go Long gold, and so I have added the Net Long positions to the right of the date, above. The highest (Large Specs Long) was 226,535 on 02.Jun.2009 when Gold/GLD hit $96.36

My "Swing Indicator" suggests that Gold (GLD) is a dangerous buy now /see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7266 The price action gets exaggerated if Commercials shorts vary from 68%. They were last week at 71.1% which is definitely on the high end, indicating that Commercials are more happy than usual to be short gold. They usually get it right at extremes. I am looking for reasons to buy Gold now, since the seasonal window has a limited number of days left, but I find this to be off-putting.

Gold-C$1,000 is a good level to watch If it touches there, or approaches closely, I will be buying heavily. This chart suggests to me that the potential takeoff point is coming much closer. (see the red MA line in the PPO section at the top)

He was interviewed by Ike Iossiv. No where else that I am aware of.

Whomever owns the property, they can expect to pay more tax! The government is too hungry for revenues not to try this, and if done wisely, it might be the BEST way to tax, especially if they can cut income tax if they tax it wisely To avoid a big tax: Downsize, and live more frugally ! Keep your wealth in "portable form", and do not have a big carbon or housing footprint.

An attack on Property wealth coming? The coming JUMP in UK property taxes ============================ ( from a thread on GEI ) An attack on Property wealth coming? / and a clone thread on HPC http://www.libdemsalter.org.uk/lvt-equality-rev1.pdf Politically, I think it might prove popular, especially since it was House Price Inflation which was to blame for many of the UK's present troubles. This threat, plus the second bubble in property, are two good reasons to sell, if you need them Do you think this is unfair? The only unfair thing is HOW the money has been spent. But, of course, the SOLUTION must come from taxing property more heavily. Do you see any other choice? If you want to own property, you better buy it in a country with low debt, and sensible spending. This would not be the UK, or the US either !

Do you mean Neowave.com ? GN has an "eye for design" (I think he might be g@y- there's something very secretive about Glenn. That's totally his business, of course, but it might explain the website. I do think the guy is brilliant, and you should google his podcasts, and listen to them.)

Henry W., whose work that is commented on the Blog: Hank Wernicki said... The NASDSAQ fractal has started its turn down on the weekly / yearly charts despite what happened on Friday. Its previous high still held ! Absolute Stop is 2032 I regard Friday's action as the last chance to short the markets

If it was true... + It is probably only amongst the most active on this thread, + It would make GEI amongst the most Gold-friendly web communities on the planet

From the Gold Holdings Poll: Half of GEI-ers have over half their wealth in Gold? Is that really possible??

Lessons from Argentina A brief inflationary dip became so painful, that the currency was destroyed A 73% drop in the currency in only 5 months. Might the US or the UK see this? Not impossible. Read the argument: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7455