drbubb

This news is already "in the price", else the $ would be moving each time we see another of these very similar stories. LET'S SEE ... if SPX and Gold fall at the same time again Gold (GLD) versus Stocks (SPY) ... update

Please use the other thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7032 I am going to park this one

I suppose I expect the Dollar to hold, and move higher To back that up, I shall review some Currency charts: A$-FXA : GBP-FXB : C$-FXC : EUR.FXE Comments: ======== + I can see further falls in: FXA (to maybe $75), FXB (to $160, then maybe $154), FXC (to $85, and maybe I will buy there), and FXE (to maybe $137) + So many mainstream people are bearish on the Dollar. Dont you think that those who wanted to sell would have sold already? EWI says that Dollar bulls are down to something like 5-6% which is very bullish + Seasonally, I can see weak gold and gold shares into August, maybe late August

GOLD /GLD : Break or Bounce ? I'm betting: Break, So Gold can follow Oil lower

From the Old thread

I'm not the one who usually starts the new month's thread. But it is JULY - so here goes... New thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7032

I'm not the one who usually starts the new month's thread. But it is JULY - so here goes... Last month's thread ends here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....6774&st=400

The drop in Oil may overwhelm those little bullish indications

THE BIG PICTURE ?? AMERICA : Deflation may come back with a ROAR in July (stocks, oil, and the economy lower) BRITAIN- : Stagflation may become more apparent, if/when Sterling rounds out a top Big Difference - is in Property, the extent of the drop, & size of the rebound COMPARE: === CURRENT YEAR, US Data === Mo : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR, - chg.%, mom% Top: 206.52 , (07/06) : 226.29, (06/06) - mid.2006 dec : 150.56, -18.60% : 162.11, -19.22%, -2.31% 2009 - jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44%, -2.56% feb : 143.10, -18.67% : 154.60, -18.89%, -2.13% mar: 139.97, -18.72% : 151.36, -18.68%, -2.10% apr : 139.18, -18.12% : 150.34, -18.01%, -0.67% . . . .vs. the Top : -32.61% : 34mos -33.56% === CURRENT YEAR, UK Data === Mo : Halifax, Nat'wde, Ave.H&N - chg.%, mom% Top: 201,081, 186,044: 192,490 (08/07) - Q3.'07 dec: 158,437, 153,048: 155,743 -17.47%, - 3.05% 2009 - jan : 159,818, 150,501 : 155,160 -16.52%, - 0.37% feb : 159,208, 147,746 : 153,477 -17.66%, - 1.08% mar: 157,066, 150,946 : 154,066 -16.69%, +0.34% apr : 157,156, 151,861 : 154,509 -16.37%, +0.33% may 160,869, 154,016 : 157,443 -12.55%, +1.89% jun : ====== 156,442 : ====== . . . Top : -20.00% -15.91% : 21mos -18.21% = = = "In California, state finance officials will begin issuing IOUs on Thursday" That's tomorrow! And so it begins...

THE BIG PICTURE ?? AMERICA : Deflation may come back with a ROAR in July (stocks, oil, and the economy lower) BRITAIN- : Stagflation may become more apparent, if/when Sterling rounds out a top Big Difference - is in Property, the extent of the drop, & size of the rebound COMPARE: === CURRENT YEAR, US Data === Mo : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR, - chg.%, mom% Top: 206.52 , (07/06) : 226.29, (06/06) - mid.2006 dec : 150.56, -18.60% : 162.11, -19.22%, -2.31% 2009 - jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44%, -2.56% feb : 143.10, -18.67% : 154.60, -18.89%, -2.13% mar: 139.97, -18.72% : 151.36, -18.68%, -2.10% apr : 139.18, -18.12% : 150.34, -18.01%, -0.67% . . . .vs. the Top : -32.61% : 34mos -33.56% === CURRENT YEAR, UK Data === Mo : Halifax, Nat'wde, Ave.H&N - chg.%, mom% Top: 201,081, 186,044: 192,490 (08/07) - Q3.'07 dec: 158,437, 153,048: 155,743 -17.47%, - 3.05% 2009 - jan : 159,818, 150,501 : 155,160 -16.52%, - 0.37% feb : 159,208, 147,746 : 153,477 -17.66%, - 1.08% mar: 157,066, 150,946 : 154,066 -16.69%, +0.34% apr : 157,156, 151,861 : 154,509 -16.37%, +0.33% may 160,869, 154,016 : 157,443 -12.55%, +1.89% jun : ====== 156,442 : ====== . . . Top : -20.00% -15.91% : 21mos -18.21% = = = "In California, state finance officials will begin issuing IOUs on Thursday" That's tomorrow! And so it begins...

LOL. Very good. Captures the HPC mentality perfectly. the right time to buy will be when everyone is afraid, perhaps because of the spread of BFC thinking

BTLet-ers? Hit 'm with a brick - Reality ! Bullish sentiment in BTL. Is that really a buy sign? ================================== (Bubb tells it like it is on the "dark side", the LandlordZone. Will they publish the post?) You don't get it, do you? The best time to BUY will be when prices are low, and sentiment is NOT bullish. Bullish sentiment, during this brief "false spring" Dead Cat bounce of 2009, is just another reason to stay away. I'm a landlord, making money, and selling down. But I'm not in the UK, which is only a place for fools and suckers. (in responds to this nonsense): Buy-to-let investors maintain positive sentiment June 23, 2009 Research by the Young Group has revealed increasing numbers of buy-to-let investors are keen to return to the market as they believe property prices will stabilise and rise during the next 12 months. Results from its Q2 2009 survey of investor market sentiment show that increasing numbers of residential property investors are considering purchasing additional UK properties within the next 12 months. London remains the preferred location for investors; 52% are considering buying additional property in the capital – an increase of 12% on the previous quarter (although still 8% down on Q2 2008). The trend is not only confined to London, with 30% of investors considering adding UK assets outside of the capital to their portfolios – compared to 24% in the Q1 this year. The outlook for property prices shows a similar trend, with investors becoming increasingly positive; increasing numbers predict that prices will stabilise and/or rise over the next twelve months. Almost three-fifths of investors believe that London prices will be at current levels or higher by this time next year /more: http://www.landlordzone.co.uk/blog/news/bu...itive-sentiment

I can draw a chart (for SPX) showing an important high may have formed SPX (S&P 500) ... update-10yr-Weekly This chart seems to fit in with the Neowave interpretation

All Allan's comment of Neely's "50% Down" prediction "Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction," Neely explains. "The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!" Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917. Glenn Neely is providing this information not as a specific trade recommendation but as a general public service announcement. A prominent Elliott Wave analyst, Neely was recently recognized in Timer Digest's May issue as the #1 stock market timer for the past 12 months. /full release: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm = = = Allan said... Derek - Neely has his own version of pattern recognition analysis that shares only partial similarities with orthodox EW. It is complex and way too complicated to take on here, but is well worth your independent study. Glenn made a rare public statement today, I am respecting the enormity of its implications.

Neowaver's chart, this is from the AllAlan Blog - he uses Neowaves /more: http://allallan.blogspot.com/ Neely and Robert Prechter are almost always joined at the hip by media-derived reviews of current Elliott Wave theorists. Therein lies the rub, for Neely to be relegated to just another Elliott Wave interpretation misses an entire body of work and analysis that this man has generated over the past thirty years. If one were to look at his work, derived in part from his book, Mastering Elliott Wave, but more importantly from his published commentaries to his subscribers, it becomes readily apparent that there is a whole lot more to this analysis then numbers and letters on a chart. From the opening paragraph of his book, you know that there is something different going on here: From an Elliott Wave perspective, the plotted price activity of a market is the graphical representation of crowd psychology. The Wave Theory describes how local plotted data relates to surrounding data, how data should behave under a multitude of circumstances, when and how psychological trends begin and end, how one psychological environment mandates the unfolding of another and what general shape the price action should exhibig upon completion. In other words, the Elliott Wave Theory organizes the semingly random flow of market price action into identifiable, predictable patterns on the natural progression of crowd psychology.

NEoWave Warns Stock Market Has Peaked for 2009 ... Neowave's chart NEoWave Institute's Glenn Neely is forecasting the largest vertical drop of the decade for the S&P 500. Neely predicts the stock market will decline 50% in the next 6 months. Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500! Aliso Viejo, CA (PRWEB) June 16, 2009 -- Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, today announces a startling prediction: The S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade. "Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction," Neely explains. "The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!" Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917. Glenn Neely is providing this information not as a specific trade recommendation but as a general public service announcement. A prominent Elliott Wave analyst, Neely was recently recognized in Timer Digest's May issue as the #1 stock market timer for the past 12 months. For those who want detailed trading strategies and insight, Neely provides specific recommendations to subscribers of the NEoWave Trading Service /see: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm Gold looks bearish too Gold / GLD ... update : other MAs-21/76/252

maybe not just yet. The drop in Oil shares and Food shares may be telling us something / see: "whiff of deflation" thread Are we going to see wage cuts spread out around the world ?? It seems to be starting in the US and in Hong Kong, but isnt showing in the UK yet. Alternatively, are we going to see severe Stagflation, and rising inflation hit the UK first ?

Jim Sinclair is starting to sound a bit shrill now ! GOLD ETF's : Normal, Short, and Geared Find them ALL, here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5466 You can easily find this thread, by looking at the top of the page, Find: ......... - Link to: Goldstock.co.uk : ^ Click on this above, to find thread #5466

Signs of a possible top ... update If that downside volume picks up, that would be an indication that the Dead Cat Bounce may now be fading. I'm not predicting that just yet, but I am watching BDEV and PSN carefully to see if they continue their slide.

Beijing plans subsidised prices for solar projects + Mainland is largest producer of PV components, with 98%, but mainly for export + Subsidy to be paid by fund, collected from all electricity users

Topic: The Battle for Gold 1000 FSN Expert Roundtable with special guests James Turk, Keith Barron and David Morgan Select an Audio Format RealPlayer | WinAmp | Windows Media | Mp3

(This was at the end of the March Elliott Wave Theorist/ EWT. It is non-proprietary news, so I dont think they will mind if I publish it here): Georgia must be the most progressive state in the union. Two members of the Georgia House of Reprsentatives have sponsored a "Constitutional Tender Act", that would "require that any bank conducting business with the state accept gold and silver coins as deposits*... This bill won't pass, at least not this year. But I predict a far friendlier climate for honest money as the bear market progresses. *Atlanta Business Chronicle, 3/6/09 "The Ludwig von Mises Institute kindly posted an expanded version of the "Jaguar Inflation" piece that appeared in the February 2004 issue of EWT. You are welcome to read this longer version at: http://mises.org/story/3329 "

Adding EWI Banner Maybe ... ======================

How is this call doing ? "Gold may be done here - Be careful" Canadian Dollars have outperformed Gold Earlier this week, I sold half of my C$, and bought Puts on Sterling (FXB) when FXB was above $1.64 I still think the "buying window" in gold will be late July or August

An invisible correction ? Here is the etf for S&P500, measured in C$ It happened, but we didnt see it By Biggest position now: Holding C$ cash has been "far from boring" !