drbubb

Is his track record of market calls any better than his appalling taste in ties?

An attack on Property wealth coming? http://www.libdemsalter.org.uk/lvt-equality-rev1.pdf Politically, I think it might prove popular, especially since it was House Price Inflation which was to blame for many of the UK's present troubles. This threat, plus the second bubble in property, are two good reasons to sell, if you need them

Stupid lenders ... should have been more prudent, especially in an extreme bubble market like Vehas

I think that gold will INITIALLY fall with stocks, but at some point will decouple

That's my fear too... Hmm. Well, I think the Dollar is going to rally from here. It may be the "last rally", if Sinclair is right, but with the number of Gold bulls (at 3%), I think we will see a Rally. I will be watching the Ratios of Gold-to-TLT, Gold-to-WTIC (Crude), and Gold-to-$SPX, to tell me when to jump in with "both feet"

Very interesting, and understandable on the part of the banks. But how are all these "new buyers" getting finance? Or is HSBC the only sensible bank in the UK?

No. Though 6 months is possible, I expect a lag of 1-2 months, and possibly less. But there are also lags in reporting, so if we see the BDEV turn in the next 2-3 weeks, it may be late Sept/Oct or even a month later before we get actual negative indices. You should consider this to be "intuitive guesswork", and no better than that

Indeed. I dont think it will last much longer, But do not expect a downturn in property until sometime AFTER you see it sliding

It would be good to hear more about the plan. Can you tell us what cities you are looking at? Any small towns, near farming? Holland, Michigan is one of my own favorites, but I haven been there for years

Heard something rather interesting on Bloomberg about 1 hour ago. There are now only 3% BULLS ON THE US DOLLAR That is a HISTORIC LOW, i believe they said. This suggests an immediate rally, and maybe a sharp one. It should take at least a few weeks to correct this extreme A sharp rally in the Dollar, should be bearish for Gold, and may yield that price dip in August that I have been awaiting.

#1 AGAIN... NEoWave's Glenn Neely Ranked #1 Stock Market Timer by Timer Digest In May 2009, Timer Digest recognized Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute, as the #1 S&P timer for the past 12 months. Glenn Neely's NEoWave Trading Services employ an advanced form of Elliott Wave theory. Aliso Viejo, California (PRWEB) June 15, 2009 -- In May 2009, Timer Digest recognized Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute, as the #1 S&P timer for the past 12 months. NEoWave offers trading strategies and insights for the S&P, Euro, T-Notes, and Gold. Glenn Neely's NEoWave Trading Services, which employ an advanced form of Elliott Wave theory, have been consistently ranked in the Top 5 most accurate by Timer Digest for more than a decade. In fact, in February 2009 Timer Digest recognized Glenn Neely's NEoWave Gold Trading service as the most accurate service - and, therefore, the most profitable service - in the United States for the previous 12 months. About Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute: Glenn Neely, who is internationally regarded as the premier Elliott Wave analyst, founded the Elliott Wave Institute in 1983. In 1990, Neely published his advanced Wave analysis process in his now-classic book, Mastering Elliott Wave. In 2000, Neely changed the name of his research and advisory firm to NEoWave Institute to differentiate his scientific Wave analysis technology from orthodox, subjective Elliott Wave analysis, which is frequently nebulous, inaccurate, and constantly fluid. What is Elliott Wave? In the early 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott presented his theory of market behavior, which quantifies each stage of an economic cycle into specific patterns of mass psychology. Glenn Neely has devoted more than 25 years to mastering and advancing the concepts of Wave theory. Neely refined Elliott Wave theory to make it objective, practical, and consistently accurate, producing his now-famous NEoWave technology. This precise, step-by-step assessment of market structure leads to low-risk, high-profit investing and trading. Orthodox Elliott Wave, devoid of such technology and rules, typically leaves the analyst with ambiguous interpretations, seriously flawed results, and dual-directional forecasts. Today, decades after R.N. Elliott penned his original theory, countless investors and traders trust Neely's revolutionary, step-by-step NEoWave approach to market analysis. Devotees of NEoWave Institute and Glenn Neely are reaping the rewards of low-risk, high-profit investing. Learn more about Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute at http://www.NEoWave.com. /see: http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2009/6/emw2527714.htm

Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute Launch Neely Investments LLC Prominent Elliott Wave analyst Glenn Neely has formed Neely Investments LLC to manage and direct private funds globally. Aliso Viejo, CA (PRWEB) July 10, 2009 -- Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute have formed Neely Investments LLC to manage and direct private funds globally. A prominent Elliott Wave analyst, Neely was recognized in Timer Digest's May 2009 issue as the #1 stock market timer for the past 12 months. Based in New York, Neely Investments is the world's first and only portfolio management firm based on core NEoWave disciplines. Glenn Neely is the founder and architect of the NEoWave method of trading and market forecasting. Over the years, he has received a significant number of inquiries from investors interested in NEoWave-based investment management. The creation of Neely Investments is the culmination of his 25-year career of successful forecasting and trading advisory services. Neely Investments has partnered with Emerson Equity LLC, a registered investment advisor and broker dealer, to offer a series of NEoWave-based private investment funds. To receive information on NEoWave-based private investment funds, please contact Emerson Equity at: Emerson Equity LLC Attn: David M. Beach 245 Park Avenue, 24th Fl, New York, NY 10167 (212) 672-1863

I liked this chart from HPC source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...21856&st=90

I agree. The cash buyer can use the cycle to his advantage, while high LTV buyers can only buy when Lending appetite and house prices line up. And most often, when they do line up, there's a rapid jump in prices, because the lemming rush in. So many wind up buying at high prices because that's when they can get credit. The answer is to keep building up the size of your deposit, so that YOU are in control of the timing, and not the banks. If, after getting burned by commercial property loans, the banks pull back again in 2010-13, and lend only 50% or 60% towards a property, prise will fall sharply. That's when you will want to go shopping for property, when most are frightened, and only a few buyers have the courage and "the scratch." The false bottom that we have just seen was a trial run. But the fears never really became big enough to create a real bottom.

Emotionally, I reckon it makes sense. Indeed, I originally bought in HK some similar emotion logic. (helped by the gf) But cyclically (if you buy into the notion of the 18 Year cycle, and the risk of a BFC future for London), it makes no sense at all! Prices could fall 40-50% from where they are now. If you RENT a place you like AND WAIT, isnt your risk far lower ?? Others here may have different opinions. Let's hear from those with other market views.

Perhaps you are right. If wrong, we may know soon. Below is AllAllan's wave count (to Monday), and my update for Tuesday : His idea was: "My trade of the week will be to go short if the SPX falls below 995". (Tuesday's low was 996.68, so the trade was not triggered yet.) That very last 5th.wave must be longer than he originally thought, or the count is wrong. The "blue cone" below shows where we are now ... update : w/o cycles I want to remind people of Glenn Neely's forecast, and the importance of SPX-1006: The day BEFORE the Jan.7th, 2009 top, Neely emailed this: "NEoWave structure, unfortunately, tells me the worst is just about to begin. Within less than two months (it could be as soon as a few weeks or even less), the S&P should embark on one of its most violent, scary declines in market history. Wave structure currently suggests a 50% decline (from current levels) is possible in 1-2 months! The markets are not prepared for this; the world is not prepared for this, but we will have to deal with it. The only way this will not occur is if the cash S&P is able to exceed 1006 before breaking last year's low. If 1006 is exceeded, then the future is not clear and I will have no opinion for a while. As long as 1006 is not exceeded, the outlook is dire.

Someone beat me to it : Thread on HPC I was going to start a thread entitled: "Stuffing the Sheeple... with overpriced property, Offplan is ba-a-a-ck !" It is clear that the Builders are doing their very best to extract the last penny for people: The old tricks are back Housebuilders are also cashing in on the rush for cheaper property by raising prices. One insider said: “Where there is good demand and sales are going well, we edge prices up. Not 20 per cent in one go, but we will take steps to see what the market can take.” The raising of prices will be a blow to first-time buyers considering a new property. Helen Adams, managing director of firstrungnow.com, said: “It might not be up to the builders to help first-time buyers, but it is unfortunate that this is going on at a time when they already have difficulty in obtaining finance and there is a shortgage of property to choose from.” Developers are also spurring buyers into quick decisions by offering incentives, such as fitted wardrobes, to those committing themselves before the launch. This part made me laugh: Buying off-plan became less attractive as prices fell because it increased the risk that buyers would find that they had overpaid once the building was complete. Experts said the re-emergence of the practice was a sign that confidence was returning to the property market as evidence grows that house prices are bottoming out. However, the option is available only to cash-rich buyers because mortgage lenders remain wary of new property, since they are less certain of a home’s true value. Shall I translate: Banks are loath to finance new properties, because they are aware that they are systemically overpriced by builders, especially when buyers pay only 10% down. They are commonly priced at 15-20% premiums, or more, in relation to nearby secondhand prices. When the "new" properties are eventually sold, they are seondhand too, and the buyers downpayment is not sufficient to cover the risk of further price falls for the mortgage bank. Buyers should be very careful about purchasing new properties, and they should realise that properties are like cars. The price drops by 15-20% as soon as they close down the showflats.

How much debt against these properties, I wonder? How much real equity will be left after the crash is finished?

Mastering Elliott Wave by Glenn Neely — Free Download 5th March 2008, 07:48 pm Mastering Elliott Wave is, as its author claims, the first scientific, objective approach to market forecasting with Elliott Wave Theory. It’s really quite an impressive descriptive and research book that starts off with the most basic concepts of trading with Elliott Waves and finishes with a very complex and sometimes difficult to understand details that would interesting only to extremely advanced financial trader. Nevertheless Glenn Neely and Eric Hall (second author of this book) have done a lot for the popularization and explanation of the Elliott Wave Theory in trading with this piece of literature. In 1990 personal computers couldn’t perform fast technical analysis as they can now, so the book now contains a lot of math calculations that can be easily transferred to the custom automated indicators, but it’s still crucial to learn the inner mechanics of the Elliott Waves and that can be done by reading Mastering Elliott Wave. Download Mastering Elliott Wave by Glenn Neely. Password: http://www.forex-book.org Interesting posts about Forex trading and the most recent currency news can be found on the Forex blog that is used by the author to share his Forex experience. /see: http://www.forex-book.org/mastering-elliot...-free-download/ All Forex books are archived in RAR format — you’ll need WinRAR to extract them. Some Forex books are in PDF format — you’ll need Adobe Acrobat Reader to read them. Other Forex books are in DJVU format — you’ll need WinDjView to read those.

To me, it looks like it is at/near possible resistance

Sadly, these "motivated" people are ideal sucker-buyers who are oh-so-likely to get caught in the Double bind trap

"Getting on with your life" in a "Double Bind Trap" ? Why Renting might prove far better than owning =============================== I suspect you are right that it will take years for people to put property into a different perspective. As it is, price fell to the level of the "the flat" in 2004, when prices went sideways, and now they are bouncing. Maybe the bounce is being driven, because there were enough people out there who somehow recall 2004/5 price levels as being where they feel "value" was established. They may have decided that they can afford to buy and that "property is a good bet in the long run" (which it may NOT be), and with rates so low, why not take a chance and buy. That sort of reaction is very understandable. Understandable, and very likely WRONG. My expectation, is that prices will start falling again in the next 1-3 months, as the fundamentals of the UK economy continue to worsen. And at some stage Sterling interest rates will start rising too, putting today's home buyers into a very uncomfortable double bind: negative equity with rising rates - a horrible and painful trap. The prices will slide right through the 2004 support level, and the panic will really set in - I expect this to hit sometime in 2010. Then the banks will realize that they are facing monumental problems, and the foreclosures will start to accelerate. My guess is that they will peak in 2011 or 2012, and UK housing prices will not bottom until foreclosure rates start to drop again, maybe a year after that. I pity those people who are buying now, and thinking they can "get on with their lives." They may be buying into a trap, What may lie ahead is nothing like what they are expecting. The reality may be: rising mortgage rates, rising taxes, and increased worries over job security. Is that the sort of NORMAL LIFE they want? And at the same time: trapped by negative equity. I am posting so aggressively on HPC these pat several weeks to try to save people from that sort of trap. (I wonder if anyone will appreciate these efforts?) Your point is valid. But is that sort of life worse than the double bind trap that I have described? By the way, you might consider doing what my gf and I did in London. We took a rental for a longer period, paying a lower rent because we paid so many months in advance. Partly that was because the savings we got was more than if I had left the money in the bank, and partly because the big upfront payment allayed the LL's concerns about renting to "someone without a proper job." If you do that, you have to be very certain your LL is financially sound, and maybe investigate your legal rights as a longer term tenant.

Thanks for the comments. The Bulls have re-taken control, for a day at least: BDEV : 192.50 Change: +8.75 / Percent Change: +4.76% Open: 184.25 High: 194.50 Low: 181.00 / Volume: 1,427,099 I was right to "await confirmation" by heavier volume, before calling the top. However, thursday's rise came on low and disappointing volume, which is bearish. Another bearish thing I did note in yesterday's trading was the late reversal in NY trading. US trading has shown strength late in the session for the last several days. Thursday's late day weakness makes a change in the trading pattern. There's only one day left, if BDEV is going to put in its top in July, so obviously, it may spill over into August. This rally may have bought the Cat a few days reprieve, but I'm not changing my forecast that the Cat will be dead in autumn.

Nice chart, Cgnao. Looks Bullish! However, it could just be that the Pound will fall faster than Gold for the next several days. That's how I have bet

I dont get it...! This bullish spasm is EXACTLY what we should expect to see in mid-summer 2009. To me, this means the prediction of the Dead Cat bounce is on course and working well. Why should anyone be surprised by this current wave of late-comer bullishness? And you certainly should not be surprised if property stalls in August, and begins to slide in September. That would be a perfect bullseye, as far as I am concerned. (And I would not worry if the forecast missed by a month or two. The cycle would still be working.) Doesnt it make sense that sentiment would - by necessity- become complacent and bullish like this in order to drive the bounce beyond spring into summer?? How else could we get here? Without this bullish spasm, the rally would have died with the spring. And we need this excess of hope beyond reality, in order to create the conditions for "the Rug Pull" - the sudden big collapse in hopes and in prices, which now look likely in the months to come. You need to stop reading reading fancifull articles in the mainstream media, and start reading human sentiment and psychology. It is the big swings in sentiment that drive big swings in prices.