drbubb

This foolishness should be rewarded. The bankers who are lending like that will deserve their fate.

900 Houses? Whichever, That's a serious number. I found 10 Flats was more than I wanted. "People want to live in houses... not flats," he says. "Only poor people live in flats." "Flats don't have the ability to increase in value, as houses do." "At similar rents, people will take a house over a flat." "There seem to be cycles every 17 years." "In the mid-1990's there was a shortage of flats, and now there is a surplus." "A professional landlord makes his money out of the surplus of rents over mortgage payments." "We didnt really put in much money at all." "We bought at auction, and by the time we had to pay, (the valuation was high enough to allow us to borrow all the money from the bank)"

In early April, I thought the Dead Cat bounce would last 6-9 months In May, saw so many parallels with 1930, I thought that UK Property would be sliding again by the end of 6 months, and that BDEV would peak out before the end of August, and Property might start down 1-2 months after that. Barratt (BDEV) made a peak close to 300p in the first half of September, and hasn't surpassed that high yet. Yesterday's close was 249.6P, and BDEV remains above important support near 225P.. To generate a post: " BARRATT's Slide looks confirmed !", I want to see BDEV slide below 225p with high volume. If we see that in October, then we could see negative growth in UK property prices in Dec. or January. Presently, that is my expectation. And then I think the slide would gather pace in 2010. If I am wrong, and BDEV makes new highs after October, then the renewed slide may be delayed. But I still see NO WAY that the slide can be avoided. My intuition tells me that the longer it is delayed, the steeper the slide may be.

Trading or Investing? Take your pick

... from hpc... You are right! But i reckon the lag will be less this time

yes, it could be. but there's no break with volume yet. other builders, like PSN, are weaker it sounds as if you may be closer to the physical market than I am, so you may have the right call. I will make one when I see the "break with volume" that I am awaiting - maybe next week?

At a party? No. But here? Yes. This isnt the end of the road, but kit could be the prelude to a correction. I continue to lighten up

It is possible. Watch WTI Crude, for a possible breakout over $75. If the dollar slides to new lows, we may see it. There are NO GUARANTEES in the trading business. Certainly, there is no guarantee that the Gold bull move will make it thru the week

The Shorts are the strong hands. The Longs are the weak hands, and the hot money Normally, this is true. But not always. You may be betting on the "not always"

Not today. The Bulls still want to run together, be they Gold Bulls or Stock Bulls. They are celebrating the immanent "demise" of the Dollar, which may or may not come.

A kids rocket. I'm still long, I dont want to tempt fate. Let me sell down, then you'll see a proper rocket (with all its peak-signalling connotations)

when the sentiment set-up is right, the bulls run when they see a red flag. But for how long? I am not expecting a reversal today. because the volume is strong enough to last today ... or more

Haha. We need some Dollar strength to get that Deflationary turn confiirmed. (Did you see my Dollar alret from earlier today?) You are "full of it" BTW ! The Highs for Stocks, Oil, Copper, etc. remain in place. Only gold, which I identified as a likely outperfomer is making new highs Also, as I said earlier (see: "I HATE being misquoted" Post, and still do !) I am still net Long Gold. And today & tomorrow I identified as a possible Seasonal peaking zone

it is ALL about the weak dollar today. I think its a reaction to the "dump the dollar" story

For me, here are two other plausible scenarios for Gold

It is relevant. And here's my response: Agreed! These are a critical few days right now From my Diary... There is a chance that the US will be driven to INCREASE LIbor, which might support the Dollar

This GOOD POST is from Fortune... UK Indie seems be confirming what Jim Willie and others are saying about the pricing of Oil in a different currency. The game is up. Better hope the Americans don't kick over the table and start WWIII: Read the rest HERE UNQUOTE Do you suppose JumWoolie is unaware of Gold's strong seasonal pattern? BTW, I can recall the first year that I was aware of the seasonal pattern, Gold peaked right on schedule on Oct. 6th. But I was so sure that there were some unusually bullish factors that year, I decided to ignore it.

I have just started a new thread for OCTOBER 2009: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7874 Deny the Seasonal patterrn, if you like. But I suggest that you first be aware of it !

THAT, sir, is a massive over-reaction. Shame on you.

The response on the "Gold- Be Careful" thread: I HATE being misquoted ! Whare do you think you are posting, HPC? 1/ Here are my actual words from the first post: "Early/Mid May, is also a fine time for a top" What happened ? Gold hit a peak of about $1,000 on the first day in June. 2/ I also said that I thought we would see a buying window in the summer, when I did some modest buying. 3/ I am still net long Gold and Gold shares, albeit I have been selling into this rally. So I am MAKING MONEY on Gold's rise, albeit not as much as if I had gone ,massively long 4/ I have long been speaking about Oct.6-7th as a seasonal peaking time for gold. And I bought my first GDX puts yesterday, with GDX near $44.50-$45. WHAT's the Problem? On this cycle, I have repeated warned that one should not get wildly bullish on Gold. And Gold has FAILED to meet the wild expectations that the mad bulls have published here. If it slides now, it would mean that I am going to suffer some small losses on the fall. (But I will probaby make far more on my SPX puts.) So I hope that Gold and Gold shares carry on for at least a few more days so I can do some more selling

Gold Trading or Investing Thread #20: October 2009 To the Moon. Or is the seasonal run in Gold ending? ================================= Gold Trading Thread #20: October Is the seasonal run in Gold ending? Link to: Start of Sept. thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7588 End of Sept. thread.. : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....&start=1340 = = = = = (How many here are "just sure" that that Seasonal Fall is not going to happen, despite the fact that the late August- early October seasonal rise parallels EXACTLY what we have seen?) and what's with the sub-title on this month's gold thread?

Smith's comment makes sense. The charts are showing the formation of a possible right shoulder

Nov 3rd is a long way away. A drop to 100p may seem impossible. But it is not. What then? Barratt still gets its money, since the underwriters stump up. At some point, they may consider running shorts, to cover the risk. So far, the "put" they have sold is out of the money, and not worth hedging.

I really dont think it will take that long The forces undermining property in the UK are now gaining in force every day: WATCH: + Falling stocks (especially the Builders) + Job losses + Weak rents