drbubb

Schiller Excerpts: All 20 metro areas, and the two composites, posted their third consecutive monthly decline. In addition, eight of the MSAs posted their largest monthly decline on record – Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, New York, Portland and Seattle. Although in decline over the past few years, some of these regions have out-performed on a relative basis, when compared to the national average. It is clear, however, that the decline in home prices is affecting all regions regardless of geography or employment opportunities. Some of those yoy changes were horrible: (Worst 5) Phoenix.......... 130.54 -3.4% -3.3% -32.9% Las Vegas....... 138.04 -3.3% -2.8% -31.6% San Francisco. 135.28 -3.0% -4.2% -30.8% Miami............. 169.62 -2.2% -3.0% -28.7% San Diego....... 155.47 -2.3% -3.0% -25.8% (Best 4) Dallas.............. 118.34 -1.9% -1.2% -3.3% Denver............ 127.65 -1.1% -1.5% -4.3% Cleveland........ 107.43 -1.2% -1.0% -5.2% Charlotte......... 125.61 -1.9% -1.8% -5.3% Notice how big the mom drops were in even the "best 4" cities. /see: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/i...ease_012724.pdf Somebody show wheel out those old US property bulls, and ask them "to explain." Where's Donald Trump now?

"Headed Lower" says Tom Obrien, with reference to Gold and Gold shares. He also thinks the larger market will go down too. He says that we have simply not had enough volume to keep the market going, since it came off Monday's potential turn point. Here's a stock chart that looks bearish to me: QQQ (etf for Nasdaq-100) ... update He's see the Dow ( INDU ) and S&P500 ( SPY ) "getting back into (last year's) lows" He's also bearish on Oil ( USO , OILB.L ) and Oil stocks ( XLE , OIH )

Silly! Why ELIMINATE the price volume relationship and ignore moving averages? Why not take out every Friday's trading, or something?? I think it is ridiculous, that's why I ahvent bothered with P&F

They seem to work for some. But I dont know enough...

"Twenty-eight of 31 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Mumbai to Chicago on Jan. 22 and Jan. 23 advised buying the metal" ?? You've got it backwards, I reckon. Why would they wait to buy, if they have already turned bullish? In other words, who are they going to sell to, if everyone is bullish already?

that high has a number of trends associated with it I fear we will see a pullback, and so I will do some selling today, if I see the right prices. But if I am wrong, and it punches thru, they a quick move to $1,000 is very possible. As always, volume will be a critical factor.

I think youve draw the line wrong. Longer term charts trump shorter term ones in ascertaining longer term direction

These "Junior Jumps" can often come at the end of a gold rally, since people start looking for a "cheap way in". I hope I am wrong, but I think a pullback (or worse) may be dead ahead. If we see that, then I'm more long Juniors than I ought to be.

(I wonder what the Gold Threaders think of this - from the DrB Diary): But BE CAREFUL WITH GOLD, as there is a real chance the rally could fizzle out right here ! I want to see it punch through that trendline. I may sell more today now that I have spotted this. A pause, a slight pullback, and then a punch thru would be ideal. Meantime, I am feeling that the values offered on the Oil side may be a better Buy or Hold right now. THAT GOLD MOVE UP is weakened by three gaps, since the motive force seems for Gold's move has been coming outside NY trading hours. I presume it is people fleeing a weak Sterling and weak Euro. Right now, I see GBP rallying to $1.42 or better, and so Gold may be due a pause - or worse !

ANOTHER WEIGHT on London Property Rental income on wane as homeowners stoke up supply by letting rooms Hard-up homeowners trying to let a spare bedroom is being pinpointed as one of the factors keeping down rental prices, says Spareroom.co.uk. The website, which matches prospective landlords with tenants, conducts a monthly survey of the rental market. It found that average prices in the UK fell 0.5 per cent during December. While year-on-year rents were 4 per cent higher, Matt Hutchinson from the website said the rental market is looking particularly weak and is likely to remain so through 2009. "Multiple factors are affecting demand for rental properties," he explained. "The number of overseas workers coming to the UK has plummeted owing to the weak pound and a tough jobs market. And companies are no longer moving employees around the country to the same extent: a key driver of the market. "Added to this, 27,000 more homeowners took in a lodger last year to cope with pressures on household income and meet mortgage repayments. We expect at least another 35,000 households to take in a lodger this year, adding to the supply." As a result of all this, Mr Hutchinson continued, "rents are likely to be under pressure for some time".

Does History Repeat? ........ GOLD in the 1970's ........ Gold since 2005 ... update : Gold from 2001 ........

No debt. Some cash ($ and others), and some gold. If inflation starts to take off, get more gold and FX

(Jan. 6th) A new president will soon be sworn into office, markets are recovering and there is an emerging optimism that the worst may be over. I'd be so happy if that were true. NEoWave structure, unfortunately, tells me the worst is just about to begin. Within less than two months (it could be as soon as a few weeks or even less), the S&P should embark on one of its most violent, scary declines in market history. Wave structure currently suggests a 50% decline (from current levels) is possible in 1-2 months! The markets are not prepared for this; the world is not prepared for this, but we will have to deal with it. The only way this will not occur is if the cash S&P is able to exceed 1006 before breaking last year's low. If 1006 is exceeded, then the future is not clear and I will have no opinion for a while. As long as 1006 is not exceeded, the outlook is dire. As most of you know, I turned officially bearish on the U.S. stock market in mid January 2008. From that point forward, the S&P moved almost exactly as expected all year. Unlike the last 12 months, the next 12 months will be the most treacherous we've ever seen. The only good news I have to report is that, after the big drop, the bear market will be over; but, by then, no one will believe me and the majority of the public will no longer be interested in the stock market. Mutual fund redemptions will reach historic levels - within 1-2 years, financial business and radio shows will start to go off the air and the public's disgust with Wall Street will be so high that a pandemic of law suits will breakout. I do not like being the purveyor of bad news, but wave structure tells me 2008 was just the warm-up for what's coming. Please do everything you can to prepare for this major, financial storm.

DANGEROUS TACTIC? Or just an EA gimmick? Cluttons has been experimenting with pricing properties at 40 per cent below the peak price of August 2007, which has created serious competition amongst buyers, resutling in sales at around 25-30 per cent off peak price. James Hyman, partner for residential sales at Cluttons, said: “It is better to undercut the current market level and consequently generate plenty of interest and lots of viewings, creating a situation when buyers are competing to secure the property. in our experience, this will result in a faster sale and higher final sale price than pricing the proerpty more expensively, creating less footfall and failing to attract any potential buyers.” Cluttons recently sold a two-bedroom maisonette in Balham which was marketed at £200,000 and went to sealed bids with 11 offers, resulting in a final sale price of £232,000. The sale was agree within ten days of the property going onto the market. /more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/bbc94474-e192-11...00779fd2ac.html

WHO POSTS on GEI? - Have a look at our Poll, and please contribute too =================== We have recently set up a poll of GEI members, to learn more about the Demographics of people who visit our site as members. Link : GEI Demographics Poll #1 Over time, we think this may change somewhat, and we will have more people who join the site for networking, and want to get involved in Skype chats and local meetings. This is the purpose of this section, A-Core, the networking section, to encourage that type of growth. This activity may start slow (as is normally the case), but I look for it to get bigger and better over time. I am interested in creating ways for communities to develop creative activities within the membership, using concepts like barter, crypto, and community currencies. Local and web based communities may be a key means of surviving a long economic downturn, and we seem to be headed that way. In a challenging environment, the principle of karma works within a community, by building a culture of generousity. (In other words, if you act according to the principle: "do onto others as you would have them do onto you" within a community, others may learn from your behaviour and copy it.) There are also some innovative ideas, like gifting communities - which make much less use of conventional currencies. Is this going to be the way forward in our future? - - - - - Admin note : This section was introduced as a local networking section for HK and the UK, but it never took off, because some parties that we going to cooperate took a different path. But many of the concepts are still relevant for the A-Core effort, and so I am re-visioning and re-launching this section. 12 Jan. 2009 : 00, 176 04 May 2009 : 01, 415 08 Sep 2014 : 10, 931 - many curious people have popped in to look since 2009 ! From Sept. 2014, A-Core Networking moves on to a New Level

I just added this to my PERSONAL PROFILE, under "interests": Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities to boost their business activities within the membership, using concepts like barter and community currencies. Local and web based communities may be a key means of surviving a long economic downturn. In a challenging environment, the principle of karma works within a community, by building a culture of generousity. (In other words, if you act according to the principle: "do onto others as you would have them do onto you" within a community, others may learn from your behaviour and copy it.)

Very plausible

I am surprised that this sort of delusional story is still getting published: London house prices "could explode" LONDON (Reuters) - London can expect a future explosion in house prices unless there is an increase in construction during the economic downturn, one of the city's key figures said on Tuesday. Peter Rogers, chief executive at the London Development Agency (LDA), said prices will rocket because of pent-up demand. "Demand exceeds supply and unless there is a steady stream of housing when the recovery does come there will be an explosion in house prices because of pent-up demand with no supply," he told London Assembly committee members. Last year London Mayor Boris Johnson promised 50,000 extra affordable homes during the next three years but the collapse in house prices and the credit crunch has left construction in the doldrums. The LDA is working with the mayor and housing agencies to increase development, Rogers said. /more: http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...E5054FM20090106 == == Idiot! If he is saying that the market might turn up at some point when supply and demand are better balanced (ie the massive excess supply has been absorbed), then I would have thought tht was a good thing, not something to be prevented by throwing more supply onto a weak housing market.

History of the battery: http://www.mpoweruk.com/history.htm

Good point on the FX. Weakness there helps reduce the size of the needed fall

RIGHT. We have now seen many months of "Crash Cruise speed"- remember that, anyone?

SMALL BETS allowed -- for those who want just a "small punt"on Gold or Oil ================ (This is a new business idea that I am testing - I got so excited about it this morning, I decided to buy the domain name : GrudgeBet.com - what do you think of the idea?) Click to: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5558 I want to set the Bets up as range bets: upside vs. downside. with maximum timeframes of up to 12 months. If you have a conviction, but dont want to put any "serious money" behind it, why not seek a counterparty? My idea is that you could do that (especially on Gold or Oil through GEI.) One bet is already set up with myself and BubblePricker. He told me this morning that I saw no chance that the Gold price would trade over $1,000 in 2009. So I said fine: pay me if that happens, and I will pay you if Gold slides a similar percentage to the downside. Look to the new thread to see how I have set the bet up. Before the bet is "live", he must come back and quote my posting, and reply: AGREED. Then, the bet is confirmed. In this case, the bet is small, and we are relying on pure TRUST between ourselves that the bet will be settled through the payment of a meal. In the future, I have an idea that GEI might hold the stakes, in the case where the bet is over a certain minimum, such as Pds.200. For doing so, GEI might take a share of "the pot" such as 5%, which is similar to what LasVegas takes from Poker pots. I do not want to do this for bets beyond a certain size, such as Pds.1,000, since then it is approaching serious money. (Note: smaller trades of less than Pds.200, would have to be on a pure "Trust" basis, and so could larger bets, if noth parties agree.) If the idea takes off, I would want to hold the stakes in GoldMoney grams, assuming the two parties agree. This way the winner may have an "extra gain" from Gold price appreciation. Or at least, his purchasing power would be intact. Whay do people think of this idea?

What, praytell, is a "Kalman filter"? (As far as I know, even Kalmans are allowed on our website) haha This forecast makes some sense IMHO

It's great to see he is keeping the "Builder Bellwether index" (invented by "yours truly") up to date House price indices usually suffer from an inherent time lag, so why not look for a real-time indicator of UK house prices? This house builders index is based on the their quoted share price looks quite promising. It picked up on the mini-downturn in late-2004 and subsequent recovery in 2005, and has clearly signalled recent collapse that started in late-2007.

It's great to see he is keeping the "Builder Bellwether index" (invented by "yours truly") up to date "House price indices usually suffer from an inherent time lag, so why not look for a real-time indicator of UK house prices? This house builders index is based on the their quoted share price looks quite promising. It picked up on the mini-downturn in late-2004 and subsequent recovery in 2005, and has clearly signalled recent collapse that started in late-2007."