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USING NEOWAVE to make fundamental forecasts NEoWave "tells us" Gold began a bear market at the high in 2008 that will last 4-6 years ... eventually dropping below $500. Based on that information, I then speculate on what fundamental events might unfold to create that reality. Typically the best way to forecast fundamentals is to identify what justified the past. Let me explain. Fundamentals best describe a market's behavior into its highest or lowest point. As Gold was topping early this year, inflation and high international demand were universally trumpeted as the causes. If Gold is going to decline from this year's high for the next 4-6 years and drop below $500 (which wave structure requires), then the "opposite" of inflation (deflation) and decreasing demand (i.e., a slowing international economy) are likely to be the fundamental realities near the low 4-6 years from now. By taking a contrary fundamental perspective, in the early stages of Gold's bear market, we can anticipate the likely future environment that will allow Gold to drop more than $500 over the next 4-6 years. We can also use that new, contrary perspective to plan our financial dealings and investments for the next 4-6 years. In conclusion, any time a market is at an extreme, it is difficult to believe the future that wave structure implies. For example, I've been bearish on the U.S. stock market since late 2007. Wave structure confirmed the Bull Market was OVER in early January of 2008. During that whole period, completely contrary to news events of the time, I warned customers of drastic changes coming, that the economy would get much worse over the next 4 years, that the country was headed for very difficult times, that real estate was going to decline sharply, that our financial institutions were in grave danger, etc. All of that was simply based on observing what occurred into the peak of 2007, when everything was great and business was going fine, then taking the opposite of that environment. That polar-opposite perspective, in late 2007, was very difficult for most to believe, but it is now coming true.

When they find they can get no milk from the Bull, they look for a Bear, and hang him by his feet upside down. They are surprised when no milk comes out, and one says: "Maybe this Bear is not short enough." The other replies: "This farm is nothing like the real world, is it?"

Two Cows / under different political systems Easy Guide to Economics by Gordon 'Slackjaw' Brown SOCIALISM You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbour. COMMUNISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk. FASCISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk. NAZISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you. BUREAUCRATISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away... TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income. SURREALISM You have two giraffes. The government requires you to take harmonica lessons AN AMERICAN CORPORATION You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyse why the cow has dropped dead. VENTURE CAPITALISM You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows. The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company. The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more. You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States, leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull. A FRENCH CORPORATION You have two cows. You go on strike, organise a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows. A JAPANESE CORPORATION You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called 'Cowkimon' and market it worldwide. AN ITALIAN CORPORATION You have two cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch. A RUSSIAN CORPORATION You have two cows. You count them and learn you have five cows. You count them again and learn you have 42 cows. You count them again and learn you have 2 cows. You stop counting cows and open another bottle of vodka. A SWISS CORPORATION You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them. A CHINESE CORPORATION You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation. AN INDIAN CORPORATION You have two cows. You worship them. A GERMAN CORPORATION You have two cows. You re-engineer them so they live for 100 years, eat once a month, and milk themselves. A BRITISH CORPORATION You have two cows. Both have mad cow disease. AN IRAQI CORPORATION Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the s**t out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least now you are part of Democracy........!!!! AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office and go for a few beers to celebrate. A WELSH CORPORATION You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive. (as received by email - thnx)

This chart - of the WTI-to-Gold ratio ...suggests you should be shifting from "expensive" Gold into "cheap" Oil. I am calling for a possible Major Low in oil within a few days, and a few dollars. THE CALL is on this thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5014

WHERE HAVE ALL THE HEDGIES GONE?? ===== EXCERPT / from an email from a London-based friend: (he is looking for office space in London): - Prices shrinking with every day we wait; I have seen at least xx properties in the last 3 weeks, all around Mayfair. Y of these were occupied by former hedge funds - all had simply vacated, leaving their over-specced furniture and IT systems behind, - Hedge fund redemptions here are still not yet out of the system - there is a typical 3 month moratorium on payments from HF redemptions here - most of them will have been declared in September, so we must expect further forced asset sales leading up to Christmas - Several fellow parents at my children's school are HF/PE operators - looking very glum- some are even trying to get back into the (real) workforce

Many of you asked to see the charts Glenn references during his recent interview with Ike Iossif. As a result, we put our programmers to work and now those charts are included right on the website page along with the audio file of the interview. You can actually start the interview and then view the charts while the audio plays in the background. To hear the interview and view the charts, go to: http://www.neowave.com/company-oct2008interview.asp During the interview, Glenn provides a chronological review of all NEoWave S&P forecasts for the past year, beginning with his January 2008 warning to NEoWave subscribers the 6-year bull market was over and to prepare for a significant, long-term bear market.

BACK TO GO? for Canadian Juniors The recent sorry saga, in its longer term context =============================== (From Canaccord Adams report): To give an indication of how the current retrenchment on the TSX-Venture ranks with previous bear runs, we have charted the performance of the Vancouver Stock Exchange (VSE), the Canadian Venture Exchange (CDNX), and the TSX-Venture (TSX-V) since 1983. Without doubt the current drop of 75% in the TSX-Venture is the largest 17-month decline since its inception in January 2002. If we use the predecessor exchanges to the TSX-V as a gauge, we are currently in a larger decline than the crash of 1987 when the market dropped 54% over a 12-month period. Unfortunately, it did not end there; the total fallout starting in 1987 was a 3.75-year period with the market declining about 75% from April 1987 highs. Following the Bre-X crash of 1996, the impending “dark ages” for junior mining spanned about 3.50 years and the total decline was about 73%. These significant corrections (1987 and 1997) in the junior sector resulted in a prolonged loss of confidence. In other circumstances, in previous cycles after corrections of up to 42%, the market recovered with a negligible consolidation period in just over one year. In our investment thesis we postulate the potential for a short consolidation period and quicker recovery in the current market environment than we have observed in previous cycles. Correction periods VSE, CDNX, and TSX-Venture Exchange (1983-2008) Period ...From - To ... :% Change # of Years May-83 Jan-85 : -42% ... 1.6 Apr-87 -Jan-91 : -75% ... 3.7 Apr-87 Dec-91 : -73% ... 4.6 Jan-94 -Feb-95 : -40% ... 1.1 May-96 Aug-98 : -73% ... 2.3 May-96 Oct-99 : -73% ... 3.4 Mar-00 Sep-01 : -34% ... 1.4 Latest : May-07 Oct-08 : -75% ... 1.5 • ETFs: There is the ongoing debate regarding whether the popularity of ETFs has helped or hindered the gold equities. With investors able to participate in ETFs that offer exposure to bullion, arguably some capital that previously would have been allocated to the equities is now funnelled to ETFs. In our opinion, there is good reason for concern. An investor looking to reduce risk through exposure to bullion can now avoid the political, start up, environmental, community, etc, risks that come with a gold equity. Royalty companies are providing a similar risk-averse opportunity. Companies like Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold, Silver Wheaton (SLW : TSX : C$4.52 | BUY), and Gold Wheaton (GLW : TSX-V : C$0.36 | Not rated) all work on a model that allows them to receive revenue from a series of gold/silver operations around the globe and are largely immune from operating cost erosion since most of their royalties are derived from the net revenue line. These companies also typically benefit from resource growth at no additional cost, have limited exposure to taxes, and no environmental or closure commitments.

in 20 minutes, you can hear Glenn’s recent interview with Ike Iossif. To listen, go to: http://www.neowave.com/company-oct2008interview.asp Glenn provides a chronological review of all NEoWave S&P forecasts for the past year, beginning with his January 2008 warning to NEoWave subscribers that the 6-year bull market was over and to prepare for a significant, long-term bear market. (Glenn issued this warning long before the current financial turmoil, bank failures, and government bailouts.) Glenn’s forecasts illustrate how his logical NEoWave process anticipated the entire bear market to date with much greater accuracy than is possible with orthodox Elliott Wave. At minimum, click the above link to read an excerpt of this interview in which Glenn answers the question: What will happen next? "This will be the low for the next 3 to 6 months. Everyone will have a sigh of relief, but this is simply the first phase of an ongoing bear market. We still have a lot more to go. Don't think the worst is over yet. We'll be in big trouble over the next 1 to 2 years." I imagine he is expecting something like this: Etf for S&P 500 (SPY) ... update

Long term, these will be good, since teh golf courses can be turned into farms. But dont expect to be playing golf there in 5-10 years Listen up: David Holmgren on the Endurance of Suburbia http://hk.youtube.com/watch?v=iTYe8WloF1U

Cgnao could be right. A bullish case for a gold low can be made Here's how I draw the chart: If it can power through $850, we should see fresh highs, maybe fairly quickly (as the dollar falls)

Cgnao could be right. A bullish case for a gold low can be made Here's how I draw the chart: If it can power through $850, we should see fresh highs, maybe fairly quickly (as the dollar falls)

To be fair, for most of the time since 2005, we have seen that. And we are not in a depression yet, although such is feared. I can see a wave 4 pattern developing, and it is much more clear than it was in 2005. For most of the three years, there has been optimism, good feelings, and healthy prices. The crash-scenario has only hit in the last few weeks, so give it some time Also, the postings of Neowave for 2008 (see above), certainly look very prophetic now.

(from 2005): I will address the Elliott Wave (NeoWave) count Glenn Neely has been following and recently updated. His count supports the case for hyperinflation, particularly after a bottom in the S&P is due around 2015 (with prices remaining above the 2002 lows) at the end of the article. /see: http://www.safehaven.com/article-3431.htm Elliott Wave (NeoWave) Supports Hyperinflation Glenn Neely predicted the 1987 crash and stated the DOW would be over 10,000 by 2000. People then thought he was nuts, but were silenced from what happened. His original forecast had the DOW hitting 100,000 around 2050, but he made an incredible one change to his count in a time period of 15 years to having wave (III) from a top in 2000, with wave (IV) underway until 2014-2017ish. A fifth wave is to follow, taking the DOW to 100,000. This sounds like a marvelous return at first, but compare that to Weirmar, Germany in the early 1920's. Their stock market went from 400 or so into the hundreds of millions by time hyperinflation had run its course (their car company could have been purchased for an equivalent amount of money to buy 300 of their cars). A DOW of 100,000 will not mean much in hyperinflation because of currency debasement. For further reading on Glenn Neelys longer term Wave count or his methodologies, I would refer the reader to his book "Mastering Elliott Wave". The world has several huge hurdles that must be addressed in the coming decade and the one way to ensure economic survival is to be invested in resource stocks or companies that provide essential basic necessities to life. The focus of this article has been directed at diatribes of the deflationist camp and why it likely will not occur until hyperinflation via currency inflation or commodity inflation runs its due course. Deflationists have been wrong for 50 years and are likely going to be proven wrong for the next 10-20 years. A broken clock is right twice a day, but only once if it is in military time.

I think he is looking for SPX-600 +/- 50 points. And from the charts he provided, that might be late 2009

That comment came from the podcast with Mish Shedlock, I believe. There wil; be more than pretend lending, but not everyone is going to get money

I found these posts in am Email account that I use rarely. WOW! there were some very accurate calls, so I wanted to share them. Neowave seems to agree with Mish Shedlock on many matters. The forces of deflation are very strong, so I am looking for signs that the efforts to stimulate reflation is winning the battle. Most positive sign so far is the falling Libor rates

BANK FAILURES ========== The attached chart shows the number of U.S. bank failures, per year, plotted since 1934. It makes clear that the current bank-failure rate is very low compared to the 1980's and early 1990's. XXX On Chart 1 (sent earlier), from 1934 to 2008, it showed 1989 as the peak of the worst decade of U.S. bank failures, with 1936 coming in a distant second. On Chart 2 (attached), the period from 1921 to 1933 dwarfs the 1980's in the number of bank failures with its peak in 1933 producing 700% more failures than that reached during the zenith of the 1980's! What does NEoWave say about this? Since the correction that began in 2000 will be more damaging and more prolonged than since 1966, but of one less degree than the 1929-1932 stock market crash, we can assume bank failures over the next 10 years will be greater than that seen in the 1980's, but fewer and less severe than that experienced in the 1920's and early 1930's. Based on structural evidence, I expect the number of U.S. bank failures to peak around 2010 and 2011, with the worst period showing 300-400 failures per year. Glenn Neely NEoWave, Inc. / AddWednesday, July 16, 2008

Thursday, October 9, 2008 9:51:40 PM As early as October of last year, I warned customers that our long-held, upside target for the U.S. stock market had been reached and that a top was looming. I maintained that outlook throughout early 2008. Then, in mid January, I specifically mapped out the S&P's price action for the next 4 years (see attachment). That Monthly S&P chart gave two scenarios - a milder, "green" scenario and a more dramatic, "crash" scenario in red. I'm writing to you this evening to report, unfortunately, that the more devastating "red" scenario is now in effect. No matter how or when the S&P goes about breaking 2002's low, the odds are high it will bottom within 50 points of 600! That requires another 33% decline from current levels, so we are FAR from being safe and no matter how much the S&P rallies over the next few days or weeks, there is much more to come later this year or in 2009. If you want to survive, and potentially thrive, during this international, financial disaster, you will not want to go it alone. Make sure our unique NEoWave research is an essential part of your analytical, trading arsenal. October 14 ======= As I occasionally do, I send out PUBLIC Notices of BIG market events on the horizon. Earlier today, ALL of our NEoWave Trading customers Shorted the S&P near the highs (around 1040 and 1019 in the Dec. Futures). Based on current, short-term wave structure, the S&P is now at risk of its LARGEST, FASTEST, MOST VIOLENT DECLINE IN HISTORY!!! PLEASE protect yourself and don't get caught in the "bargain hunting, and the market is bottoming," mentality. Good Luck, Glenn Neely NEoWave, Inc.

Aug. 8th== Since the beginning of 2008, I have warned NEoWave Gold and S&P subscribers that DEFLATION would be the new direction for the U.S. economy. Today's collapse in the Euro, and a 5-month high in the U.S. dollar, are part of that changing, financial landscape. How do you prepare for such an unusual and rare environment? Get out of debt quickly (while your dollars are worth less) and hold as little real estate, cars, collectibles and tangibles as possible. In a deflationary period, the ONLY thing that will be increasing in value is the dollar itself. Everything else, in relation, will be declining in value. Such an environment is the LAST thing the U.S. real estate market needs. Deflation will bring with it an entirely new round of foreclosures, write-offs, "walk aways," etc. The rising value of the dollar will make home values (in relation) drop far more than would be possible otherwise, which will put even more home owners under water. At the end of the real estate downturn, which will be years from now, home prices in some areas will be 75% below their peaks! For the last 20-30 years, Americans have been sold on the idea that buying on credit "is the way to live." That "extra cash" has produced a citizenry heavy in debt and awash in tangible items (exactly the opposite of what is most advantageous in a deflationary period). Based on current conditions, the U.S. economy is heading for an environment far worse than that experienced after the 1987 stock market crash, but fortunately not as bad as the Great Depression (late 20's through early 30's). No matter how you look at it, things are going to get much, much worse. Please do what you can to prepare. Sincerely, Glenn Neely NEoWave, Inc.

Many times over the last 25 years, I have taken the time to WARN the PUBLIC of coming, MAJOR market turns or changes in the economic environment. NEVER in those 25 years have I been as worried about the United States as I am today! When I warned of a stock market top eight years ago in 2000, the U.S. economy was in great shape, the wealth of Americans was high and there were no, visible cracks in our economy. Now, after 8 years of an ongoing slowdown and market correction (under wave theory terms), nearly ever facet of America (its economy, government, society, financial system) is seriously damaged and at extreme risk. Today's decline (June 6, 2008) in the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq is warning PHASE 2 of the Bear market (that began last year) has begun or will begin in the next 3-6 weeks. This bear market will be like NOTHING we have experienced in 75 years! The odds are HIGH it will be a severe, deflationary recession that will unfold very swiftly - probably in just 6-12 months, but no longer than 18 months! Financially and economically speaking, there will be few places to hide. Merely having cash in hand will put you in a better position than most. Please prepare as well as you can for what should be 2-4 years of very difficult economic conditions. I wish us all good luck! Sincerely, Glenn Neely NEoWave, Inc

NEOwave Warnings - from Glenn Nealy THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE! That statement is not about fear-mongering, it is what NEoWave theory tells me is looming for all equity and financial markets. I'm not trying to scare you, I'm trying to warn you. I'm deadly serious about this and, personally, I'm extremely concerned the quality of life in New York, California (the two places I live) and the rest of the country will be severely effected over the next 1-2 years. Please do what you can to prepare for difficult times ahead. Originally recorded in August of 2005, many of the predictions Glenn Neely made in this historic interview are already coming true (especially those regarding the current real estate market). You can choose to listen to the whole interview or just pick specific topics important to you. Simply go to the following link... http://www.neowave.com/company-2005interview.asp ===================== Mar 27 2008, 09:47 AM (from Neowave): As a public service, on many past occasions I have issued general announcements about major market turns in the S&P, Notes, the Euro and Gold. Today's announcement is on GOLD. Following last week's massive, $130 collapse, Gold has given us EXACTLY the move required to confirm the bull market is OVER! As usual, with any major market call that is contrary to the public's belief system, this will come as a shock and be immediately rejected by the majority. But, there is no denying Gold has experienced its largest, fastest decline in over 10 years, which virtually guarantees a multi-year correction has begun. If you want to be prepared for years of DEFLATION, not inflation, and you want to benefit from a rising dollar and falling Gold market, make sure to join before it is too late. Go to http://www.neowave.com/product.asp and pick the Gold service that best fits your needs. Glenn Neely NEoWave, Inc. =============== Two recent NEoWave forecasts, below, stand out and highlight the accuracy of this scientific, proven method. 1. NEoWave analysis enables Neely to state and publicly warn of impending major market and economic downturn. June 6, 2008, forecast: “… Today’s decline in the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq is warning PHASE 2 of the Bear market has begun or will begin in the next 3-6 weeks. This bear market will be like NOTHING we have experienced in 75 years! The odds are HIGH it will be a severe, deflationary recession that will unfold very swiftly – probably in just 6-12 months … Financially and economically speaking, there will be few places to hide. Please prepare as well as you can for what should be 2-4 years of very difficult economic conditions.” Outcome: In recent days, only 3 months after Neely published his warning, U.S. stock markets have fallen precipitously with dire news of bankrupt titanic financial corporations and the U.S. government’s impending $700 billion bailout. 2. Glenn Neely predicts the Gold market will rally. Within months, Gold hit historic highs. Summer 2007 forecast: Throughout last summer, with Gold trading below $650, Neely advised subscribers of the major advance that was about to begin in the Gold market. Neely’s forecast called for a $200 rally within the next few months. Outcome: On November 9, 2007, the Gold market peaked at $847.60 per ounce, up 25% for the year. The August 25, 2008, release of Timer Digest shows NEoWave Gold Trading service as the most profitable service of its kind in the United States for the last 12 months. === About Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute In the early 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott presented his theory of market behavior, which quantifies each stage of an economic cycle into specific patterns of mass psychology. Glenn Neely read about the Elliott Wave principle in 1982 and was fascinated by its implications. Neely then devoted more than 25 years to mastering and advancing the concepts of Wave theory. His revolutionary NEoWave technology is the result, which provides a step-by-step method to apply Wave theory. This method is based strictly on price action (i.e., no oscillators, indicators, or moving averages are ever employed) and enables traders to analyze individual swings and group them correctly into larger wave patterns. The result? A precise assessment of market structure and potential that leads to low-risk, high-profit investing and trading. Neely refined Elliott Wave theory to make it objective, practical, and consistently accurate. His vastly superior NEoWave technology dramatically improves the accuracy of Wave analysis. The core elements of NEoWave are logic, self-defining price/time limits, and self-confirmation. Orthodox Elliott Wave, devoid of such technology and rules, typically leaves the analyst with ambiguous interpretations, seriously flawed results, and dual-directional forecasts. Today, decades after R.N. Elliott penned his original theory, countless investors trust Neely’s revolutionary, step-by-step NEoWave approach to market analysis. Devotees of NEoWave Institute and Glenn Neely are reaping the rewards of low-risk, high-profit investing. Learn more about Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute at http://www.NEoWave.com. POSSIBLE SCENARIO - see post #xx = = = = = LINKS: Neowave website.... : http://www.Neowave.com Mastering EW Book. : http://www.scribd.com/doc/14344292/Elliott-Wave-Glenn-Neely AllAllan Neowaver... : http://allallan.blogspot.com/ Other Bloggers....... : PlanetYelnick : Tony C - his charts Other watch list site : http://www.geocities.com/zenit_thinking/

LONGER TERM - IF SPX-777 GOES... look at Japan, for the importance of demographics and then to the US Chris Puplava's article: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2008/1015.html

HOOK PREDICTED THE CRASH (in CDNX), now he thinks it is almost over As part of our numerous warnings concerning precious metals juniors in summer, you may remember the structural delineation of a measured move (MM) in the SPX/TSX Venture Composite Index (CDNX) suggestive of a crash all the way down to the 1300 proximity was underway due to tightening liquidity / credit conditions. And without fail, as these things have a tendency to do, the MM is now almost complete, suggestive of an alleviation in credit markets soon, which is exactly what a passage of the proposed bailout is suppose to accomplish. This is of course why stocks around the world have been attempting to be buoyant, accounting for strength witnessed in Western markets after the Gray Monday plunge as the junkies continue to speculate on another ‘credit fix’. /see: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/1013.html

Looks like a nice double bottom could be in place And the lease rates are also bullish SO GOLD may be on the launch pad again == == DO BE CAREFUL : there's also some real threat of a bigger collapse. If the lease rates werent so high,I would just stand aside. With those lease rates some GLD,GDX, or RGLD calls could be good.

Looks like a nice double bottom could be in place And the lease rates are also bullish SO GOLD may be on the launch pad again == == DO BE CAREFUL : there's also some real threat of a bigger collapse. If the lease rates werent so high,I would just stand aside. With those lease rates some GLD,GDX, or RGLD calls could be good.