drbubb

From DrB's Diary, where I talk about day-to-day movements Scotty, More Power ! SPY ... update We had 5 days of rising stocks last week but it came on light volume. By Friday, SPY had risen to near the important 76d.MA. But it simply lacked the power to push thru that level. So yesterday came up and touched the MA (at SPY-94.55) and fell back by a small 0.12% for the day, to close at $92.85. Volume remained below average, but it was heavier than on the rally days preceeding it. Stocks will need some upwards volume to push thru the MA convincingly. It si interesting that the first 5 trading days are considered an important test, giving a valuable signal for the year as a whole. I would certainly like to see the 76d.MA exceeded on healthy volume before the week's end. A failure to do so, would be a negative sign, and would demoralise the bulls. By contrast, HK's Hang Seng has pushed thru it ... update But EWH, the US-traded etf for Hong Kong has not pushed through. GOLD : Both gold shares (GDX) and gold (GLD, the etf) are well above their 76d.MAs. However, GLD is now struggling to break through the critical 1 year/252d.MA now. We are in a critical week, methinks.

From DrB's Diary, where I talk about day-to-day movements Scotty, More Power ! SPY ... update We had 5 days of rising stocks last week but it came on light volume. By Friday, SPY had risen to near the important 76d.MA. But it simply lacked the power to push thru that level. So yesterday came up and touched the MA (at SPY-94.55) and fell back by a small 0.12% for the day, to close at $92.85. Volume remained below average, but it was heavier than on the rally days preceeding it. Stocks will need some upwards volume to push thru the MA convincingly. It si interesting that the first 5 trading days are considered an important test, giving a valuable signal for the year as a whole. I would certainly like to see the 76d.MA exceeded on healthy volume before the week's end. A failure to do so, would be a negative sign, and would demoralise the bulls. By contrast, HK's Hang Seng has pushed thru it ... update But EWH, the US-traded etf for Hong Kong has not pushed through. GOLD : Both gold shares (GDX) and gold (GLD, the etf) are well above their 76d.MAs. However, GLD is now struggling to break through the critical 1 year/252d.MA now. We are in a critical week, methinks.

. WELCOME to the "A-Core" ... this was edited in Sept. 2014 : Shortcut to come here is a Button at the Top: --- / The Awakening Core section / --- I am the founder of GlobalEdgeInvestors (GEI), and I post here on the website as "DrBubb." You may have noticed that the website does double duty (actually, triple duty!) The Main function is as a place for GEI's existing global membership to discuss news items, and their impact upon investment markets. You can see the "larger" GEI website in action, at http://www.GreenEnergyInvestors.com . The second duty (in its A-Core mode) is to act as a forum for people based all around the world to build a social and communications network. In contrast with GEI's main function as an online forum for investors, A-Core is for people with broader interests, who may also be more aware of some of the stranger and more controversial happenings on our planet. I have a strong interest in both subjects, so I was happy to make a section of the GEI website available to those who want to discuss alternative subjects. That was the Fringe section, which was begun several years ago, along with the assistance of Call Me Joe (CMJ) one of the site's most active posters GEI's roots are in the UK / A-Core is more global Many of our original members met on a property-related website called HousePriceCrash. co.uk But that proved too narrow a focus. We launched GEI initially as GreenEnergyInvestors, and the idea was to discuss news items related to alternative energy, and strategies for investing in Green Energy stocks. But the renewables niche was slow to develop. So 1-2 years later the discussions were widened out to discuss things like precious metals investing, the dollar, and vulnerabilities in the global economy. Then, we acquired a second domain name, www.GlobalEdgeInvestors.com, and pointed it to the same chatboard. The range of postings here and the popularity of GEI has expanded greatly over time. As we introduce A-Core, we have over 4,000 members on GEI, with people active from all over the world - but there's still a special concentration of the investor-related posters within the UK. Some areas of GEI (outside this A-Core section) that you may want to investigate include: The Main GEI chatboard : -MAIN- : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showforum=2 "Both for the Awakened, and the Financially sophisticated... We need both (talking to each other)" ======================= GOLD thread ................... : #2874 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2874 - Most popular : 2.6 million Hits! SILVER thread ................. : #5227 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5227 - 3rd most : 600,000 Hits Dr Bubb's Trading Diary. : #19143 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19143 - Introduced in 2008 The UK Property thread... : #4058 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4058 - Almost 350,000 Hits Old HK Property thread..... : # 920 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=920 - Last post: Aug. 2010 New HK Property thread. : #13789 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=13789 - since Feb. 2011 We also hope that you will discuss the many topics in A-Core, including any ideas you may have about how the grow the Awakening Core Network. I believe we will see some big opportunities in the area of alternative energy, electricity storage, and possibly Free Energy, if and when viable technologies are introduced. Please join the discussions here! And better yet, start a thread or two on topics that interest you, and that way we will have a better sense of what you want from A-Core. We are still partly a "blank sheet of paper", and your postings will help determine the way in which A.C. and even GEI will grow. - Dr.Bubb, the Founder of GEI

October Home Prices in 20 U.S. Metro Areas Fall 18% (Update3) By Bob Willis Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities declined at the fastest rate on record, depressed by mounting foreclosures and slumping sales. The S&P/Case-Shiller index declined 18 percent in the 12 months to October, more than forecast, after dropping 17.4 percent in the year through September. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007. Year-over-year records began in 2001. The financial market meltdown that’s reverberated around the globe has prompted banks to curb lending, signaling the housing slump will persist for a fourth year in 2009. Falling property values have eroded household wealth, causing consumers to pare spending and deepening what is projected to be the longest recession in the postwar period. “We’re seeing a shift to a housing market that is driven by a poor economy rather than a housing market that’s driven by oversupply,” said Guy Lebas, chief economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “The credit problems that hit in October exacerbated the speed of it.” Economists forecast the 20-city index would fall 17.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 21 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 17 percent to 18.4 percent. Compared with a year earlier, all areas in the 20-city survey showed a decrease in prices in October, led by a 33 percent drop in Phoenix, a 32 percent decline in Las Vegas and a 31 percent drop in San Francisco. Dallas, Charlotte Dallas posted the smallest 12-month decline, at 3 percent, followed by a 4.4 percent drop for Charlotte and a 5.2 percent fall in Denver. New York City posted a 7.5 percent drop. “The bear market continues,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. The declines in Atlanta, Seattle and Portland surpassed 10 percent for the first time, he said. Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s. The 20-city index is down 23 percent from its 2006 peak. Fourteen of the 20 metropolitan areas showed record declines in the year ended in October. Month to Month Home prices decreased 2.2 percent in October from the prior month after declining 1.8 percent in September, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month. Six cities, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Minneapolis, Tampa and Washington, had the largest one- month drop on record. Other housing reports this month have shown property values are deteriorating even faster as foreclosures climb. Home resales, which account for about 90 percent of the market, dropped in November and median-home prices fell 13 percent from a year earlier, the most since records began in 1968, the National Association of Realtors said last week. Foreclosures and so- called short sales, or purchases at less than the value of the outstanding mortgage, accounted for 45 percent of last month’s home purchases, the agents’ group also said. Case, the co-founder of the pricing index, said today the high concentration of foreclosure sales in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona led the drop in the overall price index. ("Stranded Suburban areas !!) “Auction sales are a big deal and they are concentrated, 54 percent, in four states,” said Case in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Wellesley College, in Wellesley, Massachusetts. “They are down a lot. They are driving the aggregate index down.” Delinquencies, Foreclosures The share of mortgages delinquent by 30 days or more and those already in foreclosure rose to all-time highs in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Dec. 5. Declines in home construction have subtracted from economic growth since the first quarter of 2006. Weak housing construction is likely to remain a drag on the economy until sales and prices improve. Lennar Corp., a U.S. home construction company that builds in 14 states, reported its seventh straight quarterly loss on Dec. 18. “Frankly, we’re in the midst of a downward spiral and the momentum is building,” Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said on a conference call with analysts. /see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...efer=realestate

Basically, they are still below the (falling) 12mos/252d.MA's Have a look: CTX : HOV : PHM : TOL There's a reasonable chance they have touched bottom, but I would wait for the breakout above the 252d.MA's Pulte Homes (PHM) ... update vs. CTX, HOV, and TOL PHM is "in the middle" (black line above) and may be the best bellwether. It tried to break out above the 252d.MA in the summer, but could not hold its gains. It now looks like it may have to retest its lows (in 2009 with another selloff in stocks perhaps). If that happens then the trendlines and 252d.MA will work its way lower, and provide the scenario for a nice upwards break by late 2009/ early 2010. That would be a early signal that the physical market may make a bottom. How much of a rally would come after that is a good question. OR: I may be completely wrong about the retest, and it will rally from here. But I would wait for the signal: a convincing break of the 252d.MA by at least three of these stocks.

-- http://img360.imageshack.us/img360/9711/aa4fp8.gif Small button : : : : ... ex.:

I will copy this to the Retail thread. Explains alot! GOM, fight the battle, but dont abandon us, eh?

I mention various stocks in the DrB-Diary. Can we discuss this there? http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5460

Here's a game you might play: + Buy a Feb.GDX Call (in the money) + Sell a Jan.GDX Call (at the money, or out of the money) If the market goes sideways, the Jan.GDX call expires, leaving you a cheaper cost for the Feb.Call. If the market goes up, and the GDX call is exercised, you can exercise the Feb. call If the market goes down, you have limited risk, and more time. If you like the looks of this, some numbers can be put in the above, to see if the structure makes economic sense. I already have position on. I am long Jan.GDX.$25c and short Jan.GDX.$30c. This structure was put together in Oct. and it happened by me first buying the Jan.GDX.$25c, and then after the market bounced a few days later, selling the Jan.$30c for more than I paid for the $25c. So I can only win now. I may exercise the $25call, and sell a higher strike Feb. call, to buyback the Jan.$30call. This type of trading comes natural to some who have options experience. (Should I add this to the Diary, I am wondering.)

Your reasons make sense. I presume you will hold onto some. Gold here (today) is more or less on the 12 months moving average, and so there's a good chance your cost was below this. The 252d.MA also often proves a resistance or support level Meantime, major gold stocks (GDX) are still trading about 20% below the 252d.MA (near $40) GDX ... update Here's CDNX - which has hardly moved as GDX doubled ... update I suppose the weak performance is partly due to tax selling, and partly do to concerns that these companies will be unable to finance themselves (at reasonable prices) and will just burn up cash.

(started on Dec. 28th) "...I am alert to a possible breakout in Gold over $860, an important resistance level. Gold / GLD ... update I am a little concerned that the Gold bulls are getting a bit to complacent. But in their defense, I hasten to add that January is normally a good month for Gold and Gold stocks. If Gold does breakout over $860, it could move $100 rather fast. And this time it seems likely to drag CDNX (and the Juniors) up with it. The tax-oriented selling that we see in the 4th quarter must be over by now. So the move in CDNX could be a sharp one." - above, from Dr.B's Trading Diary: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5460

(New Jan.2009 thread / started on Dec. 28th) "...I am alert to a possible breakout in Gold over $860, an important resistance level. I am a little concerned that the Gold bulls are getting a bit to complacent. But I hasten to add that January is normally a good month for Gold and Gold stocks. If Gold does breakout over $860, it could move $100 rather fast. And this time it seems likely to drag CDNX (and the Juniors) up with it. The tax-oriented selling that we see in the 4th quarter must be over by now. So the move in CDNX could be a sharp one." - above, from Dr.B's Trading Diary: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5460 == Jan. 2009 thread:

Gold Trading and Investment, #11: Jan. 2009 (started on Dec. 28th) "...I am alert to a possible breakout in Gold over $860, an important resistance level. Gold / GLD ... update I am a little concerned that the Gold bulls are getting a bit to complacent. But in their defense, I hasten to add that January is normally a good month for Gold and Gold stocks. If Gold does breakout over $860, it could move $100 rather fast. And this time it seems likely to drag CDNX (and the Juniors) up with it. The tax-oriented selling that we see in the 4th quarter must be over by now. So the move in CDNX could be a sharp one." - above, from Dr.B's Trading Diary: :: : : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5460 == == == Last page of Dec.'08 thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....5226&st=620

That is supposed to be meaningful? What were they predicting 6 months ago? A year ago? My own forecast of 35-50% drop, with a low in 2010-13, I havent changed in 2-3 years. Even 4-5 years ago, I was talking about a 2008-2010 low. The press should be a bit more informative and talk about the track record and consistency of the forecasters. Forecasts from once-bullish clowns should be rubbished for the nonsense they are, as you have done! This was interesting: “Abbey is sending out a clear message that landlords are no longer welcome. By refusing to offer any new or remortgage buy-to-let deals, and implementing draconian rental covenants for those taking out a residential mortgage who have buy-to-lets in the background, it is making itself very unattractive to anyone with buy-to-let property.” BTL investment will be completely despised (and so will the queens of property porn) by the time we see the low.

I think seeing all those empty shops will truly demoralise potential home buyers. Remember, it took years of overspending to create the UK's massive home bubble. (And years of all those absurd property porn shows working on people's psyches.) It will take years of rebuilding savings to repair those excesses. Mr. Brown will have a long, long time "in the wilderness" before he is forgiven his many financial sins. == == "First post. Treat me gently chaps. Is there an initiation ceremony I have to go through or what? I have a note from Mummy Paddles about allergies and a weak chest, if so..." LOL. I think you will find GEI to be a less frenetic and more gentlemanly place than some others

In two pieces: Cafe + Logo .. In one large piece : 629 x 76 In one smaller piece : 567 x 76 Mr.P's alternative #2: - #3: - ================= the Preferred option?: - :: GEI-Links : drB's Diary : RUG thread : WTI : CW Radio : Notable Threads : Advertise on GEI : : :: :

SCHILLER said: In London to promote his new book, The Subprime Solution, Shiller told The Observer that consumers should be wary of the comforting excuses many analysts find for explaining why Britain's housing market will be hit less hard than America's, where prices have already fallen by more than a quarter, and repossessions are rife. 'A lot of people say that in the UK we haven't seen so many defaults on mortgages - but we're just earlier in the cycle,' he said. UNQUOTE == == == = == == == == == == == == He is right. My charts identified a 17 month lag almost two years ago: (Here's my original post from Aug.2007, right at the UK peak - see Link below): I had originally seen the cycle as a 16-year cycle, and so expected the 2004/5 slowdown to mark the top of the UK property market. It looks like 16 years was wrong (it was based on only two prior cycles - not enough data.) I now believe that Fred Harrison will be right, and we are seeing an 18-19 year cycle. If so, the next low is due: About: 1994 + 18 = 2012 or so. These cycles are normally better at forecasting lows than highs, but if we use the same 18 years, then 1989 + 18 = 2007. That fits with a Summer 2007 peak, as per the video. = = Here are some charts, showing how the exact peaks (in both the US and the UK) could have been timed by very careful observation of Long Term interest rates in the respective countries. A crossover of rates (and other MA's) above the 200week MA would have pinpointed the peak in the builders. I certainly believe that we are now some years into an upcycle in long rates in both countries CHARTS, ETC. (from the 18 year cycle thread ) NAILING THE UK PROPERTY CYCLE : 17 months behind the US Real Estate Cycle I just found a source of charts for UK Gilts, which helps me to nail down the UK's position in its 18 year cycle. Basically, Gilt rates have now triggered a turn. We saw it first in the Builders in late 2006, and it will shortly spread into nominal House Price Inflation US 10yr Rates vs. US Builders ... Gilt update : Builder update Gilt rates vs. UK Builders ... Gilt update : Builder update If you look at the above charts closely, you will find some amazing similarities: + The Peak in Builders came as each country's long term rates were making a Higher Low + The "Higher Low" is a very specific one, it is the one from which a new rise in rates was launched, which turned the 200week MA from falling to rising- so that made it eaiser to identify. The Builder Peaks came: + In July 2005 for the US + In Dec. 2006 for the UK = That's a lag of 17 months, with the UK behind the USA.. /source, post#12: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2277

IAG: 5.57 Change: +0.49 Open: 5.08 High: 5.57 Low: 4.97 Volume: 3,286,841 Percent Change: +9.65% == Any manage to buy on that big dip? IAG got below $3

IAMGOLD would acquire, via a plan of arrangement, all of the outstanding common shares of Orezone in a supported, all-share transaction. Total consideration is valued at approximately US$139 million. ======== "This business combination with Orezone is consistent with our strategy and takes IAMGOLD to the next level. This transaction represents excellent value and takes us a large step towards our stated goal of 1.8 million ounces annual gold production by 2012, while lowering our average cash cost by $40 to $50 per ounce. IAMGOLD is uniquely positioned in the current markets with a solid cash position, low debt, record cash flow and the financial capacity to finance the construction of Essakane, a second flagship gold mine for IAMGOLD," said Joseph Conway, President and CEO of IAMGOLD. Highlights of the Combination - IAMGOLD to acquire and finance development of the Essakane project, one of West Africa's largest undeveloped gold reserves - All-stock transaction with value of approximately US$139 million - Orezone exploration assets, including Bombore, to be distributed pro rata to Orezone shareholders to create "New Orezone" - Each Orezone shareholder to receive 0.08 of an IAMGOLD share and a pro rata share of New Orezone for each Orezone share held - Orezone Board of Directors unanimously recommends that Orezone shareholders vote in favour of the transaction - Shareholder voting agreements in place representing approximately 5.1% of the outstanding shares of Orezone - IAMGOLD to provide Orezone an immediate Cdn$20 million equity financing at Cdn$0.28/share, subject to regulatory approvals ========= /more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IAMGOLD-and-...w-13803824.html

Great story, Wanderer. Thanks for posting it. I started a thread about P-tiles in the GEI-Networking section

They are getting stock in return, so this compares apples and oranges

PERFECT BATTERY? Not yet Electric vehicles expected to dominate market by 2030 As 45% of greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation, there will be no solution to climate change without a replacement for the internal combustion. In an interview on the same day, Nissan/Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn said his EV without battery would cost the same as a conventional car. The battery would be leased at a monthly fee, which along with recharging costs would be on par with fuel costs for conventional vehicles. When questioned about the battery’s short range, reported at 100 miles, Ghosn said that will improve with time. "If you wait for the perfect battery, you wait till 2030." Nissan/Renault has an agreement with Better Place, an Israeli based company, to develop a worldwide presence to lease EV batteries and build networks of stations for battery exchange and re-charge to extend the driving range.

Electric vehicles expected to dominate market by 2030 As 45% of greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation, there will be no solution to climate change without a replacement for the internal combustion engine. The Tesla two-seat Roadster is a high performance electric sports-car with a $109,000 price tag. Tesla’s Roadster does 0-60 mph in 3.9 seconds and can go 250 miles on a $2.50 electricity charge. It effectively covers the high-end electric vehicle (EV) market. The last weeks saw several developments indicating that more affordable EVs are near, with market domination expected by 2030. Nissan announced 10 days ago it had signed agreements with the governors of Oregon and Tennessee for a limited release of its EV in 2010. "It's a brand-new, ground-up vehicle, well designed, with all the amenities, crash-tested,” said Oregon Gov. Perry. His state is already building charging stations and Tennessee is the site of Nissan’s US headquarters and one of its two US factories. The first EVs will be for “government and commercial fleets” in those states and will help iron out any problems. Last Tuesday, Nissan/Renault announced it had signed a similar agreement with Portugal, delivery beginning in 2011. In return, Portugal agreed to build 1300 charging stations and target 20% EVs for its government fleet. Nissan/Renault has signed similar contracts with Israel, Denmark and Japan's Kanagawa prefecture. Mass-marketing of the EV will begin in 2012. In an interview on the same day, Nissan/Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn said his EV without battery would cost the same as a conventional car. The battery would be leased at a monthly fee, which along with recharging costs would be on par with fuel costs for conventional vehicles. When questioned about the battery’s short range, reported at 100 miles, Ghosn said that will improve with time. "If you wait for the perfect battery, you wait till 2030." Nissan/Renault has an agreement with Better Place, an Israeli based company, to develop a worldwide presence to lease EV batteries and build networks of stations for battery exchange and re-charge to extend the driving range. Ghosn believes EVs could account for 10% of global motor vehicle demand by 2020 and 50% by 2030. If Nissan/Renault’s EV engineering is as good as this pre-rollout, they will dominate that growing market. BMW unveiled its city EV on 20 November. The two-seat Mini E runs on a lithium-ion battery, gets up to 150 miles per charge and recharges in 4.5 hours. BMW will place 500 EV Minis in California, New York, New Jersey US and Berlin Germany by March. The leasing fees are $850 a month, $500 more than its Mini Cooper S. The high leasing price puts the Mini E in a luxury-car price range as it includes the cost of a fixed battery. If this is the case, Nissan/Renault’s EV with its low entry price and a leased battery could have an advantage, even with a later market entry. San Francisco EV capital of US At a press conference last Thursday, mayors of 3 San Francisco Bay Area cities announced public-private investments to establish the area as the “EV Capital of the U.S.” The mayors are teaming up with Better Place, a Nissan partner, to build an open network to service fixed- and exchange-battery vehicles to enable long-distance trips. Better Place says the EV stations will be installed by 2012. The San Francisco Bay Area is the home of Tesla. Ireland targets 40% EV by 2030 The Irish government announced a target last Wednesday of 10% EV by 2020 and 40 % by 2030. The announcement by Irish Energy Minister Eamon Ryan of the Green Party, said the ultimate target was "to switch our transport system off oil." Ryan said Ireland was well suited to switch because of its size. A charged battery would travel 160 km, enough to get from Dublin on the east coast to Galway on the west coast. Utilities to push EV US power companies are planning to buy several thousand EVs and plug-in hybrids in bulk to maximise night-time revenues. Most of the cars would be used in service fleets, but some could be made available to company employees and even to customers. Top executives at a half-dozen power companies have been informally discussing a collective purchase for the past six months, said Bill Johnson, chief executive for Progress Energy in Raleigh NC. The strategy would allow two of the nation's biggest polluters, the utility sector and auto industry to reduce GHG emissions. The move would chip away at the global energy dynamic by shifting fuel sales from foreign oil nations to local electric utilities.

Question: Ellioit wave worked well in the 80's, now its accuracy is disappointing. NEoWave works great today, but how can we be sure it will work well 20 years from now? Answer: This is one of the most important questions ever asked in this forum and strikes at the core differences between Elliott Wave and NEoWave. Elliott Wave is a concept "locked in time," similar to (but not exactly the same) as curve-fitting a mechanical trading system. By focusing on Fibonacci relationships, with the assumption markets "should" adhere to them, and by using a static, limited group of standardized patterns, the analyst is unable to adapt to the increasingly complex trading world (which probably began with the introduction of computerized analysis and trading systems in the 1990's). On the other hand, the core foundation of NEoWave is LOGIC, not Fibonacci relationships and not the subjective identification of standardized wave patterns. Instead of attempting to force the market to fit a predesigned template, NEoWave is an "after the fact," observational process of logical induction, deduction and logical behavior. For example, if the concept of degree is to have any meaning, it is illogical to have a smaller degree pattern consume more price and more time than a larger degree pattern BUT I see orthodox Elliott Wave analysts constantly break this rule. As a result, their counts must change all the time. As another example, it makes no sense for a correction to stretch upward if the future uptrend is weak (you might need to think about that for a second), BUT I see orthodox Elliott Wave analysts constantly show running corrections followed by advances that are smaller than previous advances. It is also common to see orthodox Elliott Wave analysts produce multiple levels of interlocking 1's and 2's of smaller and smaller degree, with no attention paid to the fact the smaller patterns are subdividing more than the larger patterns. So, how do I know NEoWave will work for the next 20 years and beyond? Because it is not a complete, static theory, but a constantly evolving phenomenon that does not predefine or pre-suppose future reality. It does not "force" a perspective on the markets, but lets the markets (through logical deduction of behavior) define their own future and their own reality.