drbubb

HAVING MISSED THE CHANCE to sell Gold and gold shares in July on the somewhat similar move above $900, I wanted to consider what is different about the current move up in Gold In July: + There was a lingering gap up above the market (at about $950) that wanted filling + The rally came on moderate volume and was "weakened" by various gaps on the way up + The Gold price was led higher by strong oil prices (rising to WTI-$146) + Oil peaked just before gold, and fell sharply, triggering a flight from commodities + Deleveraging of commodity funds, meant they "had to sell something", and gold was most liquid Now, from the $734 low: + This rally was kicked off by huge volume + Internal dynamics are strong, with the rally up (wave 1), corrected with a healthy retracement (wave 2) + Gold may be in a strong and powerful upthrust, which would be confirmed by big volume as it vaults resistance + Gold lease rates are high (near xx%) + There is a huge amount of fear in equity markets, and strong demand for physical gold NEGATIVE NOW : Seasonality. many gold highs come in early October ALSO: Some think Gold will slide back when Libor and VIX ease. I believe easing in those will begin before the end of October, and it could be rapid.

Let's hope that it dosnt need to go all the way to the bottom

David Bensimon was interviewed on Bloomberg: He was he predicted a $732 low for gold, and $80 for oil. He now thinks the current bounce will be followed by a retest - ideally in April 2009

Interesting work, Ker. I also think we are at a key inflection point. To me, the high lease rates, make it better than a 50/50 bet that it will be UP. But it is far from 100% guaranteed.

agreed. i woke up at 3am, to buy some gold shares before the ny close yes, those higher libor rates are having an impact, and if they suddenly drop, gold go go below support. hence i bought in-the-money calls

same chart for gold

you could buy a bit cautiously today. but look at the intraday chart, and try to pick a short term reverse head and shoulders with the right volume set-up and be prepared for possible retest of those lows- hopefully on lighter volume

Gold shares (GDX) - has broken down, with gold's fall below $850, and fallen back to OTP point near $xx This is in a bad news background: + Merrill is talking about a fall in oil back to $50 - if we see global recessiom, + Factory orders fell 4% The good news for gold bulls is the low volume on this slide same chart for gold

Gold shares (GDX) - has broken down, with gold's fall below $850, and fallen back to OTP point near $xx This is in a bad news background: + Merrill is talking about a fall in oil back to $50 - if we see global recessiom, + Factory orders fell 4% The good news for gold bulls is the low volume on this slide

WaMu gone. Another casuality- just heard about it. This would have been big headline news only a few weeks ago

I did some small selling of gold & gold shares yesterday, and will continue today

still moving up: Last [Tick] 6.10[ - ] Change 0.14, Change 2.35% Small gold selloff possible from here, so you may see it back below $6.00 ($5.90?)

WOW . Oil. whatta a move! $25 is like $200 on Gold

FIRMING UP ... update IAG: 5.74 Change: +0.22 Open: 5.88 High: 5.90 Low: 5.63 Volume: 677,717 Percent Change: +3.99% I bought Mar.$2.50 calls on Friday Later: Last [Tick] 6.08 Change +0.56; Change 10.14%

Will Time be talking about a Low in Gold now?

Is IAG the cheapest ?? Last : $5.66 + 0.31 Change 5.79% / Volume 662,175 Open 5.2800 / Day High 5.68 / Day Low 5.17 Previous Close 5.35 I see that IAG is trading at a PE ratio of only 8, with a dividend yield just over 1%. Do you know any better than that? Broker Valuation : Our 5%/$1150 peak gold NAVPS for IAMGOLD is US$12.37. "IAMGOLD shares as a BUY and a target of US$10.00 is based on an approximate 0.80 times multiple of our peak gold NAVPS."

Iamgold (IAG) - at under $6, looks cheap Historic PE of about 8, 1 million oz. Gold production (2008 thread) "10-bagger from $2 Low in 1 year" ======================================== Iamgold (IAG) ... ALL : 10yr: Jan.'15: 5yr: 2-yr : 6-mo : 10d / updated 14-Jan 2022 : Jan.'15: 5yr: 2-yr : 6-mo : 10d / updated 14-Jan 2022 : "We continue to deliver growth in revenues, net earnings and cash flow as reported during the current quarter. Our cash costs and increased production guidance demonstrate our focus on cost improvement and production initiatives," stated Joseph Conway, President & CEO. All amounts are expressed in US dollars, unless otherwise indicated. HIGHLIGHTS Net earnings increased by 169%(1) to $33.3 million or $0.11 per share in the second quarter of 2008 compared to adjusted net earnings of $12.4 million or $0.04 per share in the second quarter of 2007.(2) •Significant increase in the operating cash flow to $44.9 million in the second quarter of 2008, compared to $14.1 million in the second quarter of 2007. •Gold production in the second quarter of 2008 was 255,000 ounces at an average cash cost (2) of $472 per ounce. Production outlook for 2008 increased to 950,000 ounces of gold and at a revised cash cost of $485-$495 per ounce. + Exploration and development expenditures were $17.4 million during the second quarter of 2008. + Cash and gold bullion position of $295.7 million (valuing gold bullion at market) continues to be strong. + Continued growth in operating performance and contribution of the Niobec mine. /see: http://www.iamgold.c...esultsFINAL.pdf = = = IAG-to-Gold ratio - from 2006-08 : Range 0.6% - 1.9% -------------------------------- : Ratio - from 2011-13 : : ============================================================================================= LINKS: IAG Website :: http://www.iamgold.com/ Financials--- :: 2012-AR : 2013-Q1 :

I bought Bullion on the way down at: $850, 800, and then caught the low at $740. Sold some yesterday between $880-900. I wasnt awake when it hit $920, unfortunately. Let's see: $920-740= $180 x .500 = 90, add to $740 : Buypt.#1: $830 x .382 = 69, add to $740 : Buypt.#2: $809

(I posted this on GEI): First, FEARS THAT NOTHING COULD BE DONE ... but everyone was not asleep at the wheel - letting the worst fears unfold. (or should I say un-Fuld) First, A "trial balloon" was floated by Volcker and Brady... Then, as Gold was soaring to $920 and into the stratosphere... The Bazooka-man struck, with his Bigger Bazooka: The report that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is considering the formation of a vehicle like the Resolution Trust Corp. that was set up during the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s left previously solemn investors ebullient. Wall Street hoped a huge federal intervention could help financial institutions jettison bad mortgage debt and stop the drain on capital that has already taken down companies including Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Worries about financial landmines on companies' books have essentially crippled parts of the world's financial markets in recent days and led to the intense volatility in the markets this week. "It's going to take a lot of the bad debt off the balance sheets of these companies," said Scott Fullman, director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York, commenting on the possibilities of an entity akin to the RTC. It could alleviate many of the pressures causing the credit crisis, he said, and reopen moribund credit markets. But Fullman noted, "the devil's in the details." ==== Will this be the ultimate bailout? or will it be another fails. If it fails, what then?? We are interested in your opinions (here and elsewhere)

STR Fund? What's that: S : Surviving T : The R : Recession ??? Not owning your home (with a huge mortgage) is part of the winning formula

Howzat? Get your money's worth? SPX-1,206.51 Change: +50.12 Open: 1,157.08 High: 1,211.14 Low: 1,133.50 Percent Change: +4.33% Actually, the fact that we got a new high in VIX suggests that these lows will be retested or beat later. This could be weeks or months later, even next year. But the beast (or recession) may not be faced with a single visit over Vix-40

VIX: 40.05 Change: +3.83 Open: 36.10 High: 40.05 Low: 34.23 Volume: Percent Change: +10.57% SPX-1132 here we come?

Makes sense. This is even worse than stagflation- because at least in Stagflation, Incomes are rising, albeit in only nominal terms. Presently they are falling in the US, bringing about a drop in absolute wealth

Three Month Money Action Nothing Short of Astonishing Author: Dan Norcini If you look at the chart of 3 month money (see charts in PDF format), you can see that the yield has fallen almost to ZERO! Today, the yield closed at 0.3%.There has been such a wild rush into shorter dated securities that they no longer have any appreciable yield to speak of. I believe this is one of the reasons gold is performing so strongly. Simply put - it is much more attractive as a safe haven play because investors have pushed yields on short term paper to the point of nothingness. With gold you get not only the age old safety and security that comes with a currency that has stood the test of time, you also get the opportunity for tremendous capital gains as well.

Oh Brave New World - that has such price moves in it ! GLD- Gold's etf / update Look at that volume- something was vanquished yesterday ! Apart from the short covering, you have people fleeing Money Funds, some of which have now "broken a buck" - This is Gold's attraction in a deflationary time (at least where there's a "whiff of deflation")- The place of ultimate safety.