Catflap

Ta Yep, think your right - now I've seen the relationship between the dollar index and commodities/gold then I've got two options now. To hopefully still make a small profit in the coming weeks and then go short for the next dollar rally or just stay invested where I am and come back in a years time. One question I've been meaning to ask re shortage of bullion gold/silver - if the next pullback/dollar rally takes gold and silver lower still and there isn't the physical available then is simply buying anything made of gold/silver an option? Even if there's no coins or bars there is still physical stuff everywhere just in a different form? (ie jewelry etc). The reason I say this is that I've seen loads of comments about there being a shortage!..... at the end of the day gold is gold in any form surely and the price will go up the same. What's likely to happen in the mania phase?..... will people buy anything that is made of gold? Oh and another question for anyone reading - why are people buying new silver and paying VAT?..... surely 'secondhand' silver is better as there is no VAT?

That would bail me out nicely - I thought I had timed the commodity bottom perfectly and dumped a load of money in after the big drops, but have lost a little these last few days. This rally has to end this week - $ and financials doing better than finite commodities ffs!!. We ARE in a secular commodity bull run with volatilty and pullbacks - the trend is up, just need to hold it together and go against the sheep!

Hopefully the US $ index has peaked.

A great Zeal article from last year which explains the changing relationship between gold and the dollar index from stage 1 (the first few years of the bull run) to stage 2 (where we are now): http://www.zealllc.com/2007/goldusdx.htm

Gold Targetting ABC Trend to $900: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6073.html

Great chart Ker - do you have a source or is it your own work? I've been buying commodities recently since the bottom so this should really help to determine another top. I might have to consider setting up a dollar account when I sell rather than leave it in sterling cash. Any further analysis on Elliot waves for the US dollar index from anyone would be great - still learning this one, so simple explanation needed Here's a good read as well (showing how US Dollar is a mirror image of commodities): http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5911.html

BlackRock Gold & General today put in a higher low

It's worth putting what VedantaTrader recently wrote over on HPC (Northern Ireland section) as he's a top poster - the link to the thread where this quote comes from: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...=83754&st=0 Perhaps someone can talk him into posting a bit here?

Isn't it 'normal' to get a strong pull-back half way through the commodity cycle? http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/adench2-jan15.GIF

I was looking at what happened to gold in the 70's at around '74 because that was 8 years into the bull market in commodities and one year past the peak of house prices in '73 - it does seem like a little bit of history is repeating. Cue 2008 which is also 8 years into the bull run in commodities and one year past the peak of house prices. My own view, FWIW is that it's worth looking at what happened in this period from '74 onwards insofar as the same things are happening - gold might recover to it's previous high before falling like it did to a low in August 1976 or this could be it falling now - who knows. It was from that point in August 1976 that gold rocketed so this same point might well be 2 years away IMO - that's when I will be seriously looking at gold, once the deflation in house prices is largely over in 2010. Me too, but biding my time a little - this commodities bull run is set to last another 10 years and is far from over.

For 1980, mean gross weekly earnings for adult full-time employees in Great Britain were £110.20 which is £5,730 a year - from the ONS data I have.