Catflap

There's far more to this than meets the eye and a lot more things to consider as to simply whether a cloud is bullish or bearish, it's not as easy as that - if only. It also depends if you are looking at a daily or weekly chart as the weeky trend is the one you want to trade, in which case the chart has a bullish cloud from June all the way to early March on the dollar $GOLD chart. As we know, gold should have gone up in August as a safe haven but the paper markets took it down in forced liquidation. I'm going to learn it as it's meant to be a very powerful trading tool. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p50671748480 http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/200805.html I think you need to explore it more to appreciate how powerful it really is. Using $GOLD:XBP then the you would have had a long position confirmed right at the bottom when gold was £450'ish which would have been good for loading up on miners. What I am particularly interested in right now is that gold in sterling terms could keep rising into August (albeit at a slowed rate) even though it might fall again dollar terms. Thinking about it, if the dollar strengthens then gold will fall again but sterling is likely to also fall so this is perhaps the forecasting in the clouds you are seeing. I find it fascinating and it might at least give anyone in the UK a better idea on the future direction of gold. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p50671748480

Sorry they were not links but underscores Thanks - didn't realise you could do that.

Guys - I think I've found something that is very bullish for anyone in the UK at least and would appreciate your thoughts. I use Stockcharts quite a bit now and have just started using something called 'Ichimoku Clouds' as an overlay as it seems to give better indications of a forthcoming bull/bear trend. Using $GOLD:XBP Right now the cloud is green which is bullish and the price is above the cloud with the green cloud extending into the end of March on the daily chart. On the weekly chart the green cloud extends all the way to August although it gets thinner. I'm still trying to understand all the indicators - I don't think you need MA's on the chart as this is meant to tell you everything you need to know about the trend. $GOLD On the daily chart the cloud is still green into the end of March but on the weekly chart it goes red from March into August which is meant to be bearish. I don't know how it all works and how reliable it is, but from what I can tell so far the outlook for gold denominated in sterling looks to remain bullish whilst it will become bearish for gold priced in dollars. So this would possibly mean that: 1) Sterling is going to weaken much further - just read Nadeem Walayat latest article where I think he said pound/dollar would go to 1:1. The pound has always been devaluing faster against the dollar (I think it used to be $4/£1 many many years ago) probably through higher levels of inflation (compare 70's US inflation with the UK) 2) Will gold/silver mining shares still perform well if the POG in dollars goes down but goes up in sterling. Would it be better to have UK listd mining shares or would it not matter? I hope someone else can have a play around and see what they think. More here: http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Invest...moku-clouds.jsp Edit - just to say using this technique on the S&P, Dow and FTSE and it looks bloody awful

The 70's were far worse than now when we still had a large manufacturing base and strong unions. There probably was a credit crunch back then and banks were far more ruthless about getting their money back calling in the loans if they needed the money causing businesses to fail and more people to become unemployed.

Gold is insurance - don't get rid of your insurance completely. Sometimes you need more insurance (with rising inflation, before a currency collapse or before a stockmarket crash) and sometimes you need less when these things have already happened. But you always need insurance of some kind to protect yourself.

This is the ultimate play if you get it right and it plays out like we both think, but the big question is if - there are no guarantees of course. I would simply say don't buy this latest move if you are going to be a long term holder and sell some at the March peak if you bought recently - as ever it will always be those who bought at the peak that will be the short-term losers. I think silver and platinum are better bets right now and gold will be better value later this year and in 2010.

Possibly - ever heard of the secondary banking crisis of 1973–1975? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_ban...73%E2%80%931975 We have been here before.

General stockmarket valuations will be at their very lowest at the end of the commodity boom just like they were in 1982, so this could be around 2017 perhaps. It's a gradual process going from a high valuation peak as in 2000 to low valuation bottom in a few years time - in between this you get a global recession where stocks sell off in a panic as in 1937-38, 1973-74 and today's 2008-09 period. Earnings don't necessarily have to come from somewhere for stocks to rise - stockmarkets have been cut nearly in half but the earnings havn't been cut in half. Low interest rates will ultimately force people back into the stockmarket looking for better yields than holding cash and a wall of money that is currently hiding in US treasury bonds and gold will also come back into equities for a better return - this will all happen once volatility comes back to normal levels. Besides, there are too many commodity stocks at already depressed valuations that makes them worth buying and these will be what lead the main indexes higher in the short term since we are in a secular bull market in commodities.

The reason for Japans deflation are many, not least it's demographics: Japan’s Slow-Motion Demographic Catastrophe Japan repeats its mistakes Yes, the Dow dropped 89% from the autumn of 1929 to the summer of 1932 but unfortunately you are looking at the wrong part of the cycle. 1929 was the peak in p/e valuations and the Dow back then was full of the new technology stocks of the day just in the same way that 2000 was also the peak in p/e valuations and the Nasdaq this time was where most of the new technology stocks were listed, ie. dot.com The Nasdaq fell 73% from the spring of 2000 to the autumn of 2002 - a similar large crash over almost exactly the same time frame as before. Had Alan Greenspan not done what he did then I'm sure the Nasdaq fall would have approached the 89% fall on the Dow. If you look at the long wave of the Dow from 1929 to 1938 (9 years) and compare it with the long wave of the Nasdaq from 2000 to 2009 (9 years) you will see the same patterns - we are in a period that is comparable to 1938 and not the early 1930's. Would you bet against Warren Buffet and Anthony Bolton being wrong?

It depends on what stocks your talking about - having gold, silver and platinum miners in my portfolio (about 20% in total) has hedged the risk and overall I'm up. I would rather put money into undervalued stocks near a bottom at this point than into gold which is nearing a mid-cycle top - I think gold is now overvalued compared to silver and oil and will begin it's long correction once it reaches a new record high. It's possible that stocks will fall further but I'm happy to trade this market - at some point it's going to turn up because no matter how bad the news has been everyday, we still havn't got below the November lows which is actually a good sign. 47% down on the Dow is more than the 45% we had in 1938 which was a far worse period for stocks than now - Japan was already at war with China in 1937. A contrarian would say that because all the news is so bad that we are at a bottom - especially when many still fear the market will fall even further. Just remember that gold can perform equally as badly as the stockmarket and over the same agonising length of time. Dow fell 45% from January 1973 to December 1974 Gold fell 43% from December 1974 to August 1976

I'm still bullish on gold in the short term on a week by week basis - I see a top coming soon but not before the March 08 highs have been taken out. The chart pattern looks bullish with the 18 day MA above the 50 day MA with the 100 day MA at the bottom and slow stochastics look like they will lock in above 80 as silver has done.

Anyone see the bit about gold on Friday's Tonight with Martin Lewis?....... had that awful property ramping bitch Rosie Millard on which was quite hilarious as she looks really desperate now. Martin Lewis went to Baird & Co. and spoke to Tony Baird who has talked about golds impressive performance these last few years. Hope the link works ok: http://www.itv.com/ITVPlayer/Video/default...mp;Filter=35336 So there you go - gold is now mainstream and the general public in the UK are now going to pile in at the top and push it even higher

I think comparing our situation today to the Great Depression has been greatly overdone, for starters the overvaluation in the stockmarkets peaked in early 2000 so that year is the equivalent to 1929. Once again the massive fall was in the new technologies but this time the extent of the fall of these shares wasn't shown in the Dow but instead in the Nasdaq which crashed 77% - had it not been for all the money that was pumped out by Greenspan and not being on a gold standard then I'm sure the Nasdaq could easily have gone to 90% as well. So the way I see it, 2000 to 2008 would have been the equivalent period for the stockmarket and we are now past that point - I just think there's every reason to believe that the worst has been priced in and that the US markets see recovery beginning in late 2009. Even though it will take the UK much longer before there is any sign of recovery, the UK stockmarket moves with the Dow so will follow it upwards. We will just have to see what happens but I feel gold having risen so much doesn't have much upside left (coming to a seasonal peak as well) and possibly more downside (low inflation, low interest rates) whereas stocks now have little downside left having fallen around 45% with the possibility of great upside potential. Nothing goes up or down forever and gold will have it's turn again once all this printed money starts flooding into the economies but I just don't see this happening for a little while yet. A healthy debate though - gold bulls need to be careful right now and be psychologically prepared 'if' the price does go down by around 40% again over the next 18 months and not be shaken out at any low but instead go on to accumulate more. That is a challenge but also where the best profits are made if you truely believe in the fundamentals as I do too - I just see a window of opportunity to make some decent money on a possible stockmarket rally in the next 12-18 months but I could easily be wrong. This was a great article and I'm sure Steve might like to read it as he also likes Adam Hamiltons work..... he might not now http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8285.html

No one seems to get this and yet it's staring them right in the face - equities is where the money will go next. Stocks are down a massive 45%, inflation is very low and interest rates are very low - as Adam Hamilton from Zeal says, this wasn't a stockmarket crash it was a panic and the two are different as crashes begin with overvaluation. We didn't have an overvalued stockmarket in in 2007/2008 - panics tend to reverse themselves when the dust settles. So what happened at the end of 1974 when stocks had crashed by around 45% and gold was at a new all time high?. They traded places for the next 18 months - gold fell by 43% and the Dow went up by around 73% in that period up to August 1976.

All signs of a major top coming - I hope no one is buying this final peak as the general public sure will be with all the stories going round. Inflation going lower (deflation) and stockmarkets poised to rally which is a disaster for gold - I think we have another 10 to 14 days left and we will hit an all-time high getting close to $1,100. Time to think about taking some profits ready for much cheaper prices in 2010 before the exciting stage

Why is there a picture of a two dandelion leaves

Yes, good advice G0ldfinger - if you can understand the seasonals then even better.

Thanks - I knew about this already as read it in a book recently, but this is amazing actually seeing word for word what was discussed and I'll probably print it off for reference.

Nice Just coming out of an oversold condition on the daily chart as well so this is a turbo charged rise.

Didn't quite understand that Ker and are you talking £ or $? Ta post a chart if you dare

Gold is now looking expensive as people have less and less money - I really can't see gold doing much next year with inflation falling. Until all the extra money that governments are printing finds it's way into the wider economy and inflation concerns grow once again then I think there is little to propel gold higher over the next 12-18 months. This current rise may be the last - if stocks rally from here then that is where the money will go and not into gold, although I think it will go higher till about early/mid February.

That is crazy - 19 bids as well. Are these not reproduction coins, so dated 1915 but actually struck recently?.

Now try and say that quickly

(quote is from DrBubbs diary - didn't want to disrupt his thread) Bought it this morning after some quick research last night - seems very undervalued for a gold miner in the FTSE 250 which makes a profit each year!. I can only think it's off a lot of peoples radar as I only just discovered it whilst searching for UK listed gold miners.... Randgold in the FTSE 100 has gone completely nuts and is above it's pre-crash peak and yet this share could triple from where it is today and still be lower than it's peak. I think this shows the mentality of some investors who are piling into the obvious gold 'mini-bubble' share as physical gold in sterling terms has risen so much - the reality is that Randgold was lower in mid-July when gold was a lot higher in dollar terms. Hochschild Mining - I don't think the masses realise it's a gold mining share at the moment. Now if it were Hochschild Gold Mining, well perhaps the share price would be a lot higher as the masses would spot it straight away..... just my take on things.