Catflap

I just love this! http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=T3imSKAvgmY

Very good.

Upcoming Gold Default http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/1030.html

Investec Global Gold fund has just put in a higher low. My thoughts are the dollar index may retrace back to around 80 - no technical analysis here I'm afraid, but just research into the 1974 period and spotting similarities...... it might go even higher still for all I know! http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/...term-june08.gif The Dow looks like it will put in a 3rd lower high and then drop around 15% over the next 2 weeks (again comparing the points and charts from 1974 and 1938) and that may mark the final bottom. This could lauch the final gold rally this decade before deflation really takes hold, so I still expect gold to hit $1000 again and maybe a little more some time in December. I really don't think we are in the December '74 to August '76 period yet where we had a 40% fall - that starts next year when deflation is well under way and the stock market has definitely bottomed IMO.

'Big bull market in Gold is coming soon' http://www.commodityonline.com/ndtv/news/y...ls.php?id=12073 note - article is a week old.

Despite falling gold prices in the short term I still think we will hit a new high by the end of the year the same as we did back in December 1974 - falling share prices are going to panic more investors into gold so this may be a good time to take some profit on the next high as a short deflationary period takes hold before giving way to inflation later on. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...res-965959.html

I just posted this GF http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4715 - thought it was worth discussing in it's own right and something that has been bugging me for a while. Hope others can give their views or shed some light on why gold fell so much as it will help our understanding and maybe remove some of the fear we currently have.

You might enjoy reading these recent articles as well - all on the marketforceanalysis.com website and written by Adrian Douglas: http://marketforceanalysis.com/Publication...%20PHYSICAL.pdf http://marketforceanalysis.com/Publication...20the%20Sun.pdf http://marketforceanalysis.com/Publication...LD%20SHORTS.pdf http://marketforceanalysis.com/Publication...20OI%202008.pdf

20405 contracts are betting gold will be at $850 or lower whilst 194669 contracts are betting it will be $860 or higher - about 10% and 90% respectively. I'm sure some clever person could break this all down further and produce a chart - we definitely need more work in this area as it seems to predict when the mega moves are coming and is highly significant. Check the volume and number of contracts for December - it appears that huge amounts of smart money is being positioned for a big rise towards the end of the year and nowhere else: http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/GC.html This guy has done some work on large build-up of call options that translate into large upward moves in the POG. http://marketforceanalysis.com/Published_A...OPTION%20OI.pdf

December 2008 gold options indicate $1200 as the favourite - time to load up? http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?p...-10-2008_pg5_11 http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/call...2008-10-10.html

Can anyone on here explain to me why gold fell by 40% from December 1974 to August 1976? Oh yeah, I think I know the answer

This might seem like mumbo jumbo to some of you, but I rekon we have to wait for the next full moon on October 14th before the action really starts - last full moon was on September 15th and this was the day before the 'right shoulder' peak on the dollar index which was about the time we had a brief gold rally that was snuffed out by the FED and their $700 Billion bail-out plan. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d1 The left shoulder and head are now in place on the USDX and my feeling is that once again the right shoulder peak may come around the point we have the next full moon - next tuesday. Just like then and now, there was a steady build-up from September 11th to 15th and the day after the full moon gold rocketed - will we see the same happen again?

Gold now cheaper than it was 28 years ago

$850 almost here again.

Same story here - the knowledge I've gained by being priced out and posting on HPC and GEI is far more valuable than any overpriced rabbit hutch I could have bought for 8-10 times my earnings which would have enslaved me for many years.

Crunch Time for Gold Bulls http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6476.html BlackRock Gold & General now showing a lower high

I agree with that but it's wise to be aware that the same thing could happen - nothing worse that buying a peak and then seeing a big drop. This really is a once in a lifetime event but I would say it's more like 1 in 72 years - South Sea bubble 1720, Canal mania 1793, Overend and Gurney bank run 1866, 1929 crash and early 30's depression and where we are today. So did I

Cracking chart Ker - is there a theoretical date for this peak which you can extrapolate?

A Dangerous and Deceptive Gold Market http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6416.html Is this current gold rally the last before a 40%-50% recession induced commodity mid-cycle pullback?

Not forgetting the newer Investec Global Gold fund - I think this might eventually turn out to be a better fund than the BlackRock one if you want to buy at the low and then lock in profits at a key price when it's overbought or the dollar is going to rally. No initial charge with HL and one price instead of the buy/sell differential you get with BlackRock Gold & General - you could buy two or three gold funds and split the money evenly, then monitor which is the best performing fund after all the charges and then switch it all to this one.

Kind of my thoughts and I've stayed in cash waiting for a reversal signal on the dollar index.

Gold already going up and opening trade in the US now shows the dollar index to have peaked and now declining - already down 0.4% - sure sign that commodities/gold are going to rally from here.

Thanks for that GF - reassured somewhat..... tempted to whack the last of my money into a commodities fund on Monday if USDX has peaked. The p/e ratios are just crazy for oil producers and miners ATM.

I better stop using so many exclamation marks as it's making me look like a woman!!!! Don't worry, I'm quite capable of losing my own money without your help

Let's hope so - I don't think there's enough attention paid to the USDX in relation to gold/commodities on here, so it's great to see some analysis such as yours Ker.