Catflap

Oh dear - we've just got a negative MACD crossover on the USD as well. Gold also very close to breaking it's neckline of the very bullish 'inverse head and shoulders' pattern - the dollar is only going one way and it's down.

Nice - how about some Chic?.... love the funky guitar sound! From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHfvfM_N8Ww 2 of my favourite uplifting tunes - enjoy! From: From:

I'm more into early electronic disco and other electronic music from the 70's - another one of my favourites and hard to believe it's from 1977 is Supernature. Produced by French disco master Cerrone with Lene Lovich writting and singing the lyrics. From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=313NaSvGiUY

Can't fault that choice double-agent Love this one with David Gray From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrzcgU-1rYk

From: From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p25SdQEnhHI

From:

This is for one of our mods Two of my favourite tunes. The first is from 1977 and the second from 1982 both produced by electronic disco pioneer Patrick Cowley, who was a big influence on bands like New Order. From: From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKstAXq2hh8

Ah, so that's who New Order based their parody on From: From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyoDbX1EkPQ

28 posts in a single day on a gold thread from one poster including a PM to Catflap and some pointless picture. 2 references to swampy countless baiting of Catflap and Harvipark Lots of emoticons on every post Does grumpy-old-man really need to make 28 posts on the gold thread in a single day when normal people make just a handful - this is blatant trolling and very disruptive to others who like to follow the thread.

Because he's an immature t*sser who's sent me a personal message today so I can take his troll bait - give him some abuse so he can then complian to the moderators that I used bad language and I get banned. Typical troll tactics, but note the use of asterisks - you read what you want to read. Basically it's another round of sh*t stirring by GEI's favourite sh*t stirrer - he does'nt give a damn what it does to your gold thread, he's out to point score, disrupt the forum and drive away quality posters from GEI as you can see. Think of who you havn't seen on GEI for a while and wonder why? Remind yourself what the forum used to be like and why you first came here. If I get a ban from one of the mods then that's the end of my relationship with GEI as far as I am concerned - I'll be moving on rather than staying here trying to help make the site better. Edit: Yes, we all know about you and your hero swampy and how he's influenced your postings on GEI since he was banned.

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ji8VHEjVyVo

LOL From:

Is there another good gold buying opportunity coming up? Looking at the USDX in conjunction with the 18-year housing/business cycle then there is a definite fractal pattern that happens around the time of the primary recession (1974/75, 1991/92 and 2008/09). It also ties in with my assertion that this move in the dollar is not a major change in trend (MACD/Stochastics on the monthly charts still say this) but a counter-trend rally (still a long way from getting near a golden 50/200-day EMA cross on the daily chart) So the current move looks like a 50% retracement (as happened in the other two fractals) before a re-test of the prior lows and I'm expecting this counter trend dollar rally to maybe extend to 81.7 before re-testing the prior lows of April 2008 in the months ahead and breaking through. Louise yamada was talking about 60 for the dollar index and the current P&F chart still has a bearsih price objective of 63: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum= The 50% retracement to 81.7 is very close to 81 which has previously been an important support, so this could now act as resistance IMO. I see 81 as being a layer of ice - the dollar fell under the ice in 2007 and managed to briefly climb back onto the ice in late 2008/early 2009 before falling back in again. Now that it's below the ice again it's a lot weaker and will come up and hit the 81 area (where gold should be it's lowest) before falling even lower. 20-year USD chart at bottom The pound ceased to be the worlds reserve currency in 1944 towards the end of world war II and the last few years of the Kondratieff winter. The UK was heavily in debt and it's empire was crumbling - the US now had the largest gold reserves. A similar point in the current Kondratieff winter will be around 2015 - does it work like this? 'The dollar ceased to be the worlds reserve currency in 2015 towards the end of it's wars in the Middle East and the last few years of the Kondratieff winter. The US was heavily in debt and it's empire was crumbling - China now had the largest gold reserves'

That sounds odd given your deflation stance!. Gold sold off on fears of deflation last year along with equities but real deflation hasn't happened because the banks were saved, base rates were cut to virtually nothing and governments printed money. So gold and equities recovered once the deflation scare passed but I don't think it's gone away - I see the economy bouncing back into the middle of next year taking equities, house prices and possibly gold to higher prices from where the problems begin again. I think equities could be in a bull market until mid-2010 after which they enter a bear market that lasts until spring 2013 - this I feel is when and where we finally get real deflation (at least in the US) with 2011 and 2012 being the worst years. But how is gold going to perform in such a scenario?. If gold is not money (ie, money has no backing with gold) then won't it perform the same way that it did last year and go well below 900 as everyone sells stocks to raise cash which causes the dollar to strengthen?

Watch from 2:55

Excellent, really enjoyed listening to this and will probably listen to it again - you should definitely do more like this (hope it's on Youtube since it would be a shame if more people could not hear this). I like the idea of being idle as it seems to come natural to me anyway ....... but unfortunately I'm still in the system for 2 or 3 more years I think, but fortunately I do now know the way out!. We don't have to be slaves to the system and can be more free - we can barter, use local currencies, credit unions, lets schemes, more ethical or sharia banks, digital gold etc and use our knowledge to build a way of life that is somewhat out of reach of the government, it's unfair tax laws and the workings of a corrupt financial system. Those that choose the debt funded materialistic lifestyle of keeping up with friends and neigbours latest purchases or home improvements are going to be slaves most of their live and will always feel trapped and somewhat unhappy. There's no escaping the fact that debt makes you an economic slave and takes away your freedom to make choices about your future which is probably the reason why there are so many mental health problems these days. I cannot begin to imagine the day-to-day pressure and depression that being in debt must bring to so many people in the UK and it must be at record levels now.

I just can't see the dollar going higher - the fundamentals are absolutely awful, it's very bearish technically and seasonally it's bearish from this point in the post-election cycle: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4lch3Vsfmg http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_usdx4j.html All points to another move higher for stocks and gold IMO

Royal Mint is producing some nice limited edition coins to mark 500 years since Henry VIII ascended to the throne - as usual, very expensive: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8089561.stm

This is always the confusing bit as there are average salaries, average earnings and average incomes - all slightly different. The figures I have used come from the ONS and are full-time mean weekly earnings (employees on adult rates, whose pay was unaffected by absence). They are for men and women and include overtime, bonuses/commission and shift allowance - it doesn't include those who are self-employed and the figures are gross. This is the figure that is most often quoted in relation to house prices I think when talking about the house price to earnings ratio - if you applied for a mortgage you would be stating your total earnings not your salary as that would be less for a lot of people.... this is how I understand it anyway, but the figures I quoted came from the ONS from 1970 to 2006. I've obtained the 2007 and 2008 figures from the ASHE surveys - see page 8 for the 2008 results below: 2008 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings I agree and the price discovery would have been difficult as there was no true history of gold value in relation to other assets outside of a gold standard. Inflation was so high back then as well and investors were switching out of houses/stockmarkets into gold in '73 and then out of gold into the stockmarket in early '75 and then back into gold in late '76 and houses in early '77. Must have been a nightmare for those holding large amounts of cash with raging inflation back then. The only thing that concerns me about the current POG is where it is now in relation to it's inflation adjusted peak in January 1980 - it seems to me it can either go up more slowly to an eventual peak in something like 2014 or 2015 with no serious correction and no parabolic action or it would need to have a good 1 to 1.5 year correction to lower prices from where it would rise more steeply in a parabolic fashion (just like mid-to-late 70's). Should we also expect the same amount of gold at the peak in relation to our earnings?..... is there more gold to go around (real and paper, because of etf's etc) which is why we are getting 50oz a year in 2008 compared to less in 1974 and 1975 despite the worse financial climate now.... or is it really worse with low inflation and banks now backed by governments?

I agree with you and wanted to do a post showing how much gold you could buy for a years average earnings in 1974 (before the big fall) compared with today. In 1974 average earnings were £2,168/year (though that was a time of very high inflation and the average for the year don't forget) In 1974 the average gold price was £67.83oz So, in 1974 you got around 32oz of gold for a years average earnings in the UK ______ In 1975 average earnings were £2,808/year (though that was a time of very high inflation and the average for the year don't forget) In 1975 the average gold price was £72.33oz So, in 1975 you got around 39oz of gold for a years average earnings in the UK ______ In 1976 average earnings were £3,338/year (though that was a time of very high inflation and the average for the year don't forget) In 1976 the average gold price was £69.33oz So, in 1976 you got around 48oz of gold for a years average earnings in the UK ______ In 1977 average earnings were £3,650/year (though that was a time of very high inflation and the average for the year don't forget) In 1977 the average gold price was £84.62oz So, in 1977 you got around 43oz of gold for a years average earnings in the UK ______ In 1978 average earnings were £4,113/year (though that was a time of very high inflation and the average for the year don't forget) In 1978 the average gold price was £100.61oz So, in 1978 you got around 41oz of gold for a years average earnings in the UK ______ In 1979 average earnings were £4,659/year (though that was a time of very high inflation and the average for the year don't forget) In 1979 the average gold price was £143.03oz So, in 1979 you got around 33oz of gold for a years average earnings in the UK ______ In 1980 average earnings were £5,730/year (though that was a time of very high inflation and the average for the year don't forget) In 1980 the average gold price was £263.70oz So, in 1980 you got around 22oz of gold for a years average earnings in the UK Let's also look at January 1980 in more detail where the high occurred - average earnings for January 1980 are likely to be around 1/2 the average of 1979 plus half the average of 1980, so let's assume them to be around £5,195 at this point. The average gold price in January 1980 was £297.73 so at the January peak you could have got around 17.5oz for a years average earnings. Now let's have a look at the situation today where the world population is bigger, more gold has been mined and more paper gold exists plus loads of other factors..... In 2008 average earnings were £29,864/year In 2008 the average gold price was £593.08oz That means in 2008 you got around 50oz of gold for a years average earnings in the UK - incredible! So gold does not look as expensive as it did in 1974 and 1975 - it's worth about the same in relation to peoples earnings as it was in 1976 when it had already had a significant correction. This might make me more bullish on gold going forward from here - I have to do a bit of gold bug bashing to see if the arguments stand up and we won't see a big correction (I consider myself a gold bug as well!). This is obviously a different era to the highly inflationary 70's, so maybe gold will just grind sideways and upwards to an eventual peak gradually getting more expensive but without a severe correction. Catflap

I can't say I've been a fan of Robert Prechter as some of his predictions seem absurd, but I've signed up to Elliot Wave International to read his free 40-page Gold and Silver ebook. I was alerted to it via the Market Oracle newsletters, titled 'Gold and Silver Warning' Details here if any of you want to download it: http://www.elliottwave.com/club/gold-silve...aspx?code=32544

Well, whatever happens to gold in dollars going into June it's not going to go up in sterling that's for sure - 20-day, 50-day and 100-day EMA's are now alligned in a bullish configuration: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=gbpusd%...ource=undefined

I'm hoping we get a decent correction in gold soon - we all know where it's going to eventually, but wouldn't it be nice to have one last chance to get in at a lower price before it goes to the moon.

Here we go - found something that Steve did last year which makes the point better. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4736 Could do with an update though - Dow Jones hit 8.9 on the March low.

That's a pretty scary chart - is it for real? Edit - seems to be doing the rounds on the web and obviously it's taking into account all the huge losses (negative earnings) from the banks and motor companies.