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What a truely excellent graph showing the seasonal patterns of gold - remarkably consistent and showing the best points to invest!. How did you find the POG in GBP as I've only ever seen historical data in USD?

I was thinking exactly the same thing today - VI's, exactly how it was with housing and people constantly trying to talk the market higher. Anyone who has a very large portion of their wealth in gold or makes their living from trading it is going to be a VI by default - they will only see gold going higher and it will long term but that doesn't mean it can't correct 40% in nominal terms just like it did from December 1974 to August 1976. That 18-month period was under higher inflation than today so in real (inflation adjusted) terms it might have been more like 50%. There's nothing to say the same won't happen again - inflation could be close to zero or negative next year and if stock markets rally like they did from the low of December 1974 then I don't see why gold should go higher. VI's love to talk the price of what they are holding or selling - I bet there's loads of them just waiting to dump their gold at the last peak just before the worst of the recession takes hold next year so they can buy back in again in 18 months time. And before anyone shoots me I am pro-gold - I just don't like vested interests in any market that try and manipulate the price into a frenzy for their own gain.

To be honest with you warpig, the experience I have in the markets has come fairly recently and I've not been trading that long either. My only concern was of the 40% correction (in USD) that happened in the December '74 to August '76 period but having looked at the graph for gold in GBP for the same period then it seems to have been perhaps around half this. Gold in GBP is up some 14% from it's March 2008 high whilst gold in USD is down by some 16% so holders in the UK are clearly doing better and maybe suffer less volatility in price. At the end of the day, most of us are just out to preserve what we have - for many like myself who came from HPC or GHPC then it's the chance to own our own home having been priced out by a fraudulent market. I too will be a happy man if I achieve these aims and maybe having travelled down this path I'm starting to see more opportunities so my play is a little different to others on here in that I'm looking to ride a probable 12/18 month stock market rally first before going totally long gold. I too would like to wish you good luck - I think anyone investing in this gold bull market for the long term will be richly rewarded.

I'm in the UK like yourself and am definitely pro gold although it might not always seem that way, I try and remain detached and unemotional about investments. If POG goes up then that's good but I'm always looking to buy things when they are falling and have nearly bottomed since there's more upside - doesn't really matter what it is to me, if it's oversold and I think it will go higher then I will buy it. If it's already overbought (like gold is now) then I don't buy but wait for a better opportunity. I would hate anyone on here to lose a lot of their money because they bought on a peak - gold is already up 30% on it's October low of £440 in only 2 months so I don't think that rate of increase is sustainable - a correction must come soon. I just happen to think you can do much better by buying the lows and this is where charting is really useful if you use tools like slow stochastics which measures overbought and oversold conditions. I've just bought financial stocks again (shock horror!) because they are oversold and I have a collection of stocks in my ISA which are high yielding FTSE100/250 - also have BlackRock Gold & General and Investec Global Gold as well as Yamana. Will use most of my remaining cash to buy the metal producers/miners on their next low ready for the SM rally early next year. I then plan to switch out of many of the shares and then ride the gold bubble all the way to the top which could be around 2014! Dollar index is now climbing back up again (circa 81) - stochastics show it to be oversold just like it was in early July and towards the end of September. I think gold is going lower (in dollar terms at least) so there may be better buying opportunities ahead. This is just how I see things ATM and there's nothing to say that I will be right - long term anyone buying gold clearly isn't going to lose, but you might do even better just buying the lows and avoiding the highs.

Go easy warpig, that is typical mania language you get just before a peak!. Please remember what happened from December 1974 to August 1976 where gold went down 40% in dollar terms - I feel we are near that same point, ie. SM just crashed and bottomed with gold approaching a new all-time soon after. It's always safer to average in or buy the lows rather than feel your missing the boat and have to go 'all-in' in one go. There was a guy on here who bought a lot of gold on the March 2008 peak and regretted it by selling for a loss (although he would be sitting pretty now!)..... you will feel really sick if this happens If we got up to $1,100 and then fell to $660 then that would be another fall of 40% - my current prediction is for gold to peak 3 weeks after another low in stocks on around January 20, 2009 (with a VIX reading in the 20's from which the SM rallies) which is 2 months from the November 20 low. So I feel gold will peak just before mid-february - this is from analysis I've done from SM bottoms in 1938 and 1974 etc. Ker is also predicting Feb/March as being bad for PM's.... I've read that the spreads along the treasury yield curve are coming down on 10-year notes which apparently signals a prolonged dis/de-inflationary prognosis. Apparently when they start to increase, ie. the curve steepens - then the bond market will be pricing in the return of inflation ahead.... hope someone can verify this is correct as I'm not that clued up on yield curves/spreads yet.

Bad link in there, should be: http://marketforceanalysis.com/

These are not ordinary times which is why it is wise to hold gold but the danger is focussing on just one asset class - my gut instinct tells me that ATM gold is expensive and many shares are cheap. I don't know how it's going to play but feel there's every chance that equities (commodity ones especially) will perform well next year and I think gold goes down if stocks go up and visa versa. How big and long the cyclical bear rally will be is anyones guess - it could be short and low with another leg down in 2010 if this recession does become a depression. I think the stockmarket crash was a credit bubble and stock bubble at the same time which is why it was so devastating whereas this time we had a stock bubble that peaked in December 1999/January 2000 where valuations were extreme to 2008 where valuations were perhaps around fair value but we had the peak a credit bubble/housing bubble. If you remember, on November 23 I said this: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5129 The low (so far) was actually on November 20 which makes it a total of 8 years, 10 months and 7 days from the 2000 peak to the 2008 low, only 10 days more than the 1966-1974 peak/trough. Just keep in mind what happened to gold prices (in dollars) from December 1974 to August 1976 when the SM rallied - I don't think the falls were that bad for people who had bought in £'s though, but I would be very careful about buying at todays prices with the SM already rising. Looking again at the 1970's where the bottom in the SM was December 6 1974 and the top in gold prices was December 30 1974 one should be aware that there was only a small overlap where stockmarkets and gold rose together and it lasted 24 days. If November 20 is the bottom of the SM then we are at 22 days already but who knows, there could be another shock and another test of the SM low. What I would say is that volatility is still very very high which isn't good for SM investors wanting to come back in - it was 54.28 for Friday so maybe gold will keep performing whilst this reading stays high. Maybe we will get a triple top in the VIX as this period is unlike any other in our lifetime. http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/12/dou...ops-in-vix.html

I have - I bought Barclays again today . Stochastics on the USDX are now showing it to be oversold - as the gold is like an inverse USDX then one can say that gold is soon going to be overbought.

Is the same pattern emerging as December 1974?.... stockmarket bottoms and climbs for the next 18 months whilst gold peaks and then loses 40% of it's value (in dollar terms) over the next 18 months. Stockmarket has bottomed there is no doubt - double top on the VIX confirms this but I think volatility is still too high for a sustained rally to happen yet so gold could hold-up/go higher until the VIX comes down to something like 30 (as it did in March/April 2003 where stockmarkets rallied from).

Thank you Steve and for the additional info as well, all really useful.

Anyone know if there is an equivalent UK symbol on Stockcharts.com to the $GOLD one to get the chart in £'s, or if there is one for Yahoo charts. Ta in advance.

From the UK - yes it's doing really well atm @ £537/oz and will probably go higher still but will it really go higher in 2009 especially if the £ strengthens against the $ and stocks are rallying?

Great charts and I think you will be proved right - with the stockmarkets at a bottom as they were in early December 1974 when gold peaked, I think gold is likely to fall further as a new cyclical bull market in stocks begins.

My own view FWIW is that gold could peak Dec/Jan as the world stock markets put in their last bottom and this cyclical bear market in a secular bear market finishes. The deleveraging will be over, the bank failures will be over, the falling stocks prices will be over and inflation will still be falling. At this point stocks are going to be very undervalued with record low p/e ratio's and on top of this central banks will make another big cut - this will set in motion the next cyclical bull market in stocks and gold will likely fall once again. I can't see any reason why gold should perform well next year if stocks are rising, unemployment is rising, the financial crisis is largely over with the bailouts and inflation continues to fall or be very low. However I also see inflation rising once again in 12 to 18 months time as all the stimulus money printing comes through at which point it will be out of stocks once again and back into gold/commodities until the end with one giant bubble

Have you heard the saying 'Never trust a man with a beard' ? This cracked me up http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE&...feature=related

And we all know what the naughty French did in 1971 under de Gaulle.... yes they sent one of their battleships to New York to redeem their US treasury debt for gold - a few days later Nixon announced that the United States would no longer redeem dollars for gold. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JJ02Cb03.html

Exactly, no one really knows with any certainty - you just give it your best shot and try to stack the odds in your favour. The part of the article which I thought was really important was this:

Not really, this guy really knows his stuff and published a book in January 1999 titled "Stock Market Panic! How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market". He's not speculating that we are half way through a secular commodities bull market but is stating a view based on past cycles. Secular commodity bull markets start where secular stock bull markets finish, ie 1929, 1966 and 2000. The halfway point starts when stock markets crash and bottom out and a primary recession begins - this occurs around 8.5 to 9 years after the secular stock market bull run has ended, ie. 1938, 1974 and now. The end of the bull run in commodities will happen when p/e valuations on stockmarkets are at very low levels, even lower than they are today but I think 2023 is pushing it a bit and my guess is that the end of the cycle will happen in around 2018 to 2020 (18-20 years).

This is a great article and a must read: http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/nov142008.html

I think he had a bad day Here's another good read: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Radomski/nov072008.html Don't get me wrong, I can't wait to dump most of my money back into the BlackRock Gold & General fund - I've just seen too many false dawns (and rockets) and lost quite a bit by a strengthening dollar which I didn't understand at the time. I need to know the top is definitely in on the USDX - nothing I am reading says that it is and it could still break either way.

7, 6, 5. Countdown aborted http://www.marketoracle.eu/Article7208.html

Peter Schiff and Comex default (2 minutes in) http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=CxOoMVApIso

Possibly, but I think the analysis is all part of the picture to help understand what is going on. I don't think anyone should trade using Ker's charts who doesn't know what they are doing - the picture with the USDX and gold is very confusing atm. If in doubt, average in on a monthly basis and perhaps try and recognise when the market is overbought and likely to fall significantly and don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Give it a rest cgnao, this is the 3rd swipe at Ker that you've made in as many days. Whilst charting gold may be difficult atm I'm sure Ker's work will get even better and come into it's own when gold is in a bull run. Peace and chill out

So which is it to be - USDX goes even higher and gold goes even lower or the other way around? http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/forex/...ision-79106.cfm Lower highs on the USDX but higher lows at the same time, so it could break out either way.