Carlton

Lagging quite badly behind gold.

 

I'm not convinced about a turnaround in PMs until I see a magnified move in Silver confirming the gold action.

Maybe today is a start: Au +0.34% Ag +0.64% as of this post.

Time will tell.

My list of safer miners: ANV, HL, AUQ, AEM, Osisko, Detour, NEM, FNV

and safer juniors: THM, NG, Kirkland, Lakeshore

Slightly less safe, but still probably okay: IAG, AUY, KGC

From the Guardian:

 

Although he only started in buy-to-let in 2000, he has amassed 672 properties...

About 60% of the rent he receives on the properties, which are clustered around Llanelli in south Wales, comes from tenants on housing benefit and income support.

 

(and another)...

 

Virtually all of his rental income comes via welfare benefits. "Rents are stagnant here. We only charge £60-£65 a week for a furnished room with bills included. We never come across tenants who can't afford to pay. If they can't, it's only because they haven't bothered to claim housing benefit.

Sure makes one reconsider the housing privitization, and of course the low interest rates and state benefits.

JP Morgan Silver Manipulation

 

 

(And why you need to know why silver is headed up beyond $500/oz.)

 

Silver Stock Report

 

 

http://www.silverseek.com/article/jp-morgan-silver-manipulation

 

There is a lot to read at the link for the story.

 

But I do find it hard to believe that we could see $500 silver.

Coming from Jason Hommel $500 is a lowball.

To prepare a reasonable estimate of a top we would need to know: how much future monetary inflation, how much future price de/inflation, the future velocity of money, and the size of future defaults.

Ross Clark continues:

 

 

 

“It is key that investors understand these markets experienced similar volatility in the 1970s. For now, if we can hold solidly in this $1,625 area, gold should be explosive for the second half of the year. The mining shares, which have been lagging, should dramatically outperform the price of gold in this next bull leg.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/4/2_Gold_Bull_Market_Set_Up_for_a_Spectacular_Move.html

Bid/Ask 1620.80 - 1621.80

^^ From the same article:

And gold’s biggest fans are deeply attached to it. “Gold is one of those emotional asset classes,” Williams told me. “These folks are fanatics about gold. There’s a class of investors who are into gold because it’s a religion, a cult, a political statement.”

When I hear or read articles or public statements like this, to me it is usually a sign to exit.

Usually. But the mining shares are already in the gutter. Although I still have much more faith in bullion than the miners.

 

 

Close enough to 50, so have bought with the last of my earmarked funds.

 

 

I've now pretty much exposed to precious metals with all my liquid worth, with this trade balanced against core gold. Will be keen to reduce a lot of that exposure on the next silver spike. Target of 600 odd in two years or so.

600 for AGQ? Given how the levered etfs work, you may lose significant value over any timeframe beyond short-term.

In the world of KWN there never is any downside for the PM's.

Seemingly 99% of King's interviewees are permabulls. One important exception is Louise Yamada; I wish she were on there more often.

Here are the

BIG QUESTIONS that interest me...

 

1) If gold is meant to be an effective hedge against inflation, why is it outperforming almost all other measures of Inflation ?

Romans Holiday has explained this quite elegantly: We are fundamentally in a deflationary environment; in a deflation assets fall relative to currencies; gold is the best currency so assets fall the most against it.

Hyper-inflationists such as Faber are going to climb a wall of worry in the gold market. Along with Sinclair he sees gold sponging up liquidity, but he is not so sure as to whether there will be all this excess liquidity sloshing about for gold to be the beneficiary.

 

Much better to view gold itself as a form of liquidity... as an appreciating currency. And then look at the rate of appreciation. A solid 22 odd % year on year. Looking at the log chart, a slide to below 1500 looks unlikely. Looking more likely is a spike above 2000 sometime this year.

 

So why can't Faber see the obvious trend? Because theory determines what you see. And his theory does not perceive gold as a steadily strengthening currency.

 

Faber mainly owns gold as protection against total financial system failure. He's spoken just recently about the computers crashing and us having a reset of global finance. He does indeed view gold as a currency which is why he talks about owning gold as becoming one's own central bank.

But, I agree with your point about gold's steady appreciation vs other currencies.

?? That point makes no sense at all !

I do not know exactly where he was born - so I can hardly be called a liar.

There is increasing evidence that his Birth Certificate is forged, or doctored.

All he needs to do is get Hawaii to send a copy of a genuine certificate to the Electorial boards of 50 states. Instead he spends millions fighting various court cases. Why?

The birthers wanted him to release the "Certificate of Live Birth." He finally did. As was totally predictable, the birthers now say that document was forged - which is why he resisted releasing it in the first place - you can't reason with conspiracy theorists.

No other US president has had their qualifications challenged in this manner. Why?

i dont have your chart reading skills because cannot see how that is obvious at all. silver has run up 40% over last three months, someone must have made some money. if the price plummets from here then these trades will look very savvy.

See here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/2_Whistleblower_Maguire_-_US_Entity_Interferes_in_Gold_Market.html

I would put it very differently.

 

JS doesn't defend himself against charges of ramping gold, and he SHOULD be made to do so.

 

I read and respond to the many comments here from people, most of which are unfair IMHO.

 

(I would appreciate it greatly, if there are any others reading this, who are also suspicious about the motives of Mr Sinclair, if those others we see that dangers of his ranmping would now give me some support. I am tired of fighting the apparent forces of darkness on my own.)

 

I think I have fought hard to bring light and debate to points and dangers that the liars and exaggerators (like GATA) have done their best to hide. GATA and others paint themselves as "the good guys" in the great gold debate, but I think that is far from true. they will not answer debate points (and strong ones) that I am fight hard to bring to the surface.

 

Here it is in a nutshell:

"Who owns the bulk of the Gold on this planet, and is a gold price soaring ahead of the rate of inflation something that ordinary investors should be supporting or not?"

You need a vacation - seriously. "Forces of darkness?" LMAO.

I will also point out that I could easily call you a liar for suggesting that Obama was not born in Hawaii, which he obviously was.

so it is clear manipulation if the price drops by 5%, but perfectly legitimate that it rose just as promptly only days before?

The nature of the selling in gold and silver was highly irrational, the big seller(s) was obviously not trying to maximize proceeds received. Hence, the seller seems to have been motivated by other considerations.

OK, so what are Jim Sinclair's latest predictions for gold? Does he still think it's going parabolic in the next few years? Or has he settled down to predicting 20 odd % appreciation year on year?

JS refers to Alf Fields' numbers; Fields is currently expecting $4500. I think that is quite possible. And I wouldn't call a 160% increase in a few years parabolic - it depends of course on how it gets there.

Or.... silver had raced up a bit quickly, and now we see the expected consolidation.

I am not given to conspiracy theories, but given the statements of Andrew McGuire and others I am tempted to think that some of these pullbacks in silver are orchestrated by someone.

??

"Please keep in mind that this is not a dress rehearsal but rather the real thing. There is no practical means to handle the problems at hand. We are at the dead end of the road the can has been kicked down.

 

Volatility in gold is going to go wild so just keep your head down and hold your insurance close to your chest."

 

If that's Not Ramping, then I am Bill Murphy!

There's nothing clear-headed and thoughtful in what JS, just bullish nonsense.

 

Look at my chart- it suggested a possible important resistance level for Gold:

 

Do you see that in the writing of JS?

You have to stand on your head to see a $60 drop in what he said.

What a BS artist is Mr JS !

Why can you not see the ramping nonsense clearly for what it is?

You focus on the short term, JS doesn't. This is why he has always advised people to not use leverage of any kind.

Like it or not, JS has been proven right for two decades now, the 1970s and the 2000s. His call for $1650 gold was magnificent. Give credit where credit is due.

I revisited Larry's clip from 2/20; he had said gold would encounter resistance at $1780, right where the rally stopped on Wednesday. He was saying that the next major move is to the downside.

I just watched Larry's latest; he expects the $26 low to be taken out.

Nick Barisheff's book, 'Gold 10,000' is out soon. And he had a couple of podcasts on FS with Jim Puplava.

 

I think a lot of reasonably minded people think official CPI is a load of....

That sort of talk can be worrisome. It reminds me of DOW 36,000 etc. from 2000, or oil $300 from 2008.

That is using the ShadowStats inflation model, I presume.

 

Kindly tell us why it is better than CPI?

 

"Real Gold" by another measure:

 

What percentage of the time was it above the current level?

Under 5%? Under 2%?

I don't believe gold will necessarily return to the SGS inflation adjusted high, but by now you surely realize the difference (and the general superiority and more accuracy) with the SGS inflation numbers. SGS reverts to an older inflation formula that was more reflective of everyday prices for key products.

Hey, guys.

Please don't get the idea that I am Bearish on Gold.

I have been long Gold and Gold shares since 2001. I just adjust my degree of Bullishness,

depending on how I view charts, and whether I think we are in a Buying window, or a Selling Window for Traders.

 

I have not identified a Shorting window, though we have been through some periods where being short would have worked for a few weeks.

The 6 month gold chart suggests we are near the top of a downtrending channel = SELL

The 6 year gold chart suggests we are near the bottom of an uptrending channel = BUY

The producing gold company of the future is the new utility as it dividends a majority of its profits to its shareholders.

This is an intriguing thought that I've seen JS talk about previously. But somehow I doubt that miners will ever have the efficiency, reliability, and stability of conventional utilities. The mining business has risks, surprises, and uncertainties that most utilities don't face. And, of course, the miners are working with non-renewable resources.

Also, there is the miners' performance to date versus the metal, which is rather disappointing. If $4500, or some other much higher number comes, I think we'll be better off in the metal than in most miners. Some miners do have the potential to go "to the moon" at $4500 Au, but we still have the issues of nationalization, onerous taxation, and war and terrorism in some places to worry about.

To get the safest Allocated Gold bullion

This is not difficult.