Carlton

^^ Thanks for those links, Warpig.

We use a 200-day moving average to smooth out the volatility. In the summer of 2008, the 200-day MA of the Gold/Oil ratio was about 8. Its presently at 15 which aside from early 2009, is at a 10-year high. The Gold/Industrial Metals ratio in the summer of 2008 was at 2.0. It’s now at 3.11. In 2007-2008, the ratios were near four-year lows and that was reflected in the weak relative performance of gold stocks. Note that the ratios began rising in summer 2008 and then a few months later, gold stocks rocketed higher in nominal terms and relative to Gold. These ratios have been rising for several months and if it continues, we should expect gold stocks to strengthen against Gold.

Regarding silver specifically Schiff had this to say, “I think anything in the low $30’s represents a pretty good entry point for people to buy...Once we go through $50...I see silver going to $200 an ounce. I own a lot of silver personally because of that outlook.”

From Lorimer Wilson:

3 Analysts See Gold Reaching its Parabolic Peak Sometime in 2011!

 

Bob Kirtley: $10,000;

Patrick Kerr: $5,000 – $10,000;

Taran Marwah: $3,000;

 

10 Analysts See Gold Reaching its Peak By the End of 2012

 

Arnold Bock: $10,000;

Porter Stansberry: $10,000;

Taran Marwah: $6,000+;

Greg McCoach: $5,000+;

Robert McEwen: $5,000;

Mary Anne and Pamela Aden: $3,000 – $5,000;

John Paulson: $2,400 – $4,000;

Ian McAvity: $2,500 – $3,000;

Peter Hambro: $2,500;

Charles Nenner: $2,500

 

These 11 Analysts See Gold Going Parabolic to +$10,000

 

DoctoRX: $20,000 (by 2020);

Mike Maloney: $15,000;

Ben Davies: $10,000 – $15,000;

Howard Katz: $14,000;

Jeffrey Lewis: $7,000 – $14,000;

Jim Sinclair: $12,455;

Goldrunner: $10,000 – $12,000;

Martin Armstrong: $5,000 – $12,000 (by 2015/16);

Robin Griffiths: $3,000 – $12,000 (by 2015);

Jim Rickards: $4,000 – $11,000;

Roland Watson: $10,800;

 

These 46 Analysts See Gold Price Peaking Between $5,001 and $10,000

 

Bob Kirtley: $10,000 (by 2011);

Arnold Bock: $10,000 (by 2012);

Porter Stansberry: $10,000 (by 2012);

Peter George: $10,000 (by 2015);

Tom Fischer: $10,000;

Shayne McGuire: $10,000;

Eric Hommelberg: $10,000;

David Petch: $6,000 – $10,000;

Gerald Celente: $6,000 – $10,000;

Egon von Greyerz: $6,000 – $10,000;

Peter Schiff: $5,000 – $10,000 (in 5 to 10 years);

Patrick Kerr: $5,000 – $10,000 (by 2011);

Peter Millar: $5,000 – $10,000;

Roger Wiegand: $5,000 – $10,000;

Alf Field: $4,250 – $10,000;

Jeff Nielson: $3,000 – $10,000;

Dennis van Ek: $9,000 (by 2015);

Dominic Frisby: $8,000;

Paul Brodsky: $8,000;

James Turk: $8,000 (by 2015);

Joseph Russo: $7,000 – $8,000;

Bob Chapman: $7,700;

Michael Rozeff: $2,865 – $7,151;

Jim Willie: $7,000;

Greg McCoach: $6,500;

Dylan Grice: $6,300;

Chris Mack: $6,241.64 (by 2015);

Chuck DiFalco: $6,214 (by 2018);

Jeff Clark: $6,214;

Aubie Baltin: $6,200 (by 2017);

Murray Sabrin: $6,153;

Adam Hamilton: $6,000+;

Samuel “Bud” Kress: $6,000 (by 2014);

Robert Kientz: $6,000;

Harry Schultz: $6,000;

John Bougearel: $6,000;

David Tice: $5,000 – $6,000;

Laurence Hunt: $5,000 – $6,000 (by 2019);

Taran Marwah: $3,000 – $6,000+ (by Dec. 2011 and Dec.2012, respectively);

Martin Hutchinson: $3,100 – $5,700;

Stephen Leeb: $5,500 (by 2015);

Louise Yamada: $5,200;

Jeremy Charlesworth: $5,000+;

Przemyslaw Radomski: $5,000+;

Jason Hamlin: $5,000+;

David McAlvany: $5,000+

 

Cumulative sub-total: 57

 

These 33 Analysts Believe Gold Price Could Go As High As $5,000

 

David Rosenberg: $5,000;

James West: $5,000;

Doug Casey: $5,000;

Peter Cooper: $5,000;

Robert McEwen: $5,000 (by 2012 – 2014);

Peter Krauth: $5,000;

Tim Iacono: $5,000 (by 2017);

Christopher Wyke: $5,000;

Frank Barbera: $5,000;

John Lee: $5,000;

Barry Dawes: $5,000;

Bob Lenzer: $5,000 (by 2015);

Steve Betts: $5,000;

Stewart Thomson: $5,000;

Charles Morris: $5,000 (by 2015);

Marvin Clark: $5,000 (by 2015);

Eric Sprott: $5,000;

Nathan Narusis: $5,000;

Bud Conrad: $4,000 – $5,000;

Paul Mylchreest: $4,000 – $5,000;

Pierre Lassonde: $4,000 – $5,000;

Willem Middelkoop: $4,000 – $5,000;

Mary Anne and Pamela Aden: $3,000 – $5,000 (by February 2012);

James Dines: $3,000 – $5,000;

Bill Murphy: $3,000 – $5,000;

Bill Bonner: $3,000 – $5,000;

Peter Degraaf: $2,500 – $5,000;

Eric Janszen: $2,500 – $5,000;

Larry Jeddeloh: $2,300 – $5,000 (by 2013);

Larry Edelson: $2,300 – $5,000 (by 2015);

Luke Burgess: $2,000 – $5,000;

Marc Faber: $1,500 – $5,000;

Robert Lloyd-George: $5,000 (by 2014)

 

Cumulative sub-total: 90

 

31 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Up to Between $3,000 and $4,999

 

1. David Moenning: $4,525;

 

2. Larry Reaugh: $4,000+;

 

3. Ernest Kepper: $4,000;

 

4. Mike Knowles: $4,000;

 

5. Ian Gordon/Christopher Funston: $4,000;

 

6. Barry Elias: $4,000; (by 2020);

 

7. Jay Taylor: $3,000 – $4,000;

 

8. Christian Barnard: $2,500 – $4,000;

 

9. John Paulson: $2,400 – $4,000 (by 2012);

 

10. Paul Tustain: $3,844;

 

11. Myles Zyblock: $3,800;

 

12. Eric Roseman: $2,500 – $3,500 (by 2015);

 

13. Christopher Wood: $3,360;

 

14. Franklin Sanders: $3,130;

 

15. John Henderson: $3,000+ (by 2015 – 17);

 

16. Michael Berry: $3,000+ (by 2015);

 

17. Hans Goetti: $3,000;

 

18. Michael Yorba: $3,000;

 

19. David Urban; $3,000;

 

20. Mitchell Langbert: $3,000;

 

21. Brett Arends: $3,000;

 

22. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: $3,000;

 

23. John Williams: $3,000;

 

24. Byron King: $3,000;

 

25. Ron Paul: $3,000 (by 2020);

 

26. Chris Weber: $3,000 (by 2020);

 

27. Mark Leibovit: $3,000;

 

28. Mark O’Byrne: $3,000;

 

29. Kevin Kerr: $3,000;

 

30. Frank Holmes: $3,000;

 

31. Shamik Bhose: $3,000 (by 2014)

 

Cumulative sub-total: 121

 

These 12 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go to Between $2,500 and $3,000

 

Ian McAvity: $2,500 – $3,000 (by 2012);

Jeff Nichols: $2,000 – $3,000;

Graham French: $2,000 – $3,000;

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: $2,000 – $3,000;

Joe Foster: $2,000 – $3,000 (by 2019);

David Morgan: $2,900;

Sascha Opel: $2,500+;

Rick Rule: $2,500 (by 2013);

Daniel Brebner: $2,500;

James DiGeorgia: $2,500;

Peter Hambro: $2,500 (by 2012);

Charles Nenner: $2,500 (by 2012 – 13)

 

Grand Total: 133

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1308463740.php

^^ You guys are speaking as if the central banks surrender physical control of the gold. I don't think that's ever been confirmed.

Would anyone like to counter this argument?

 

A break of support would give a measured move to 400-420 area.

 

That 29% decline followed an inverse head-and-shoulders; that is not the current situation. We could see a significant correction, but the technical set up is very different, to my eyes.

I prefer to own gold shares and also have puts on the GDX and/or SPY.

Thats right. The Fed owns NO gold. Zero, zip, ziltch.

Which is the way it should be. The US Treasury (i.e., the public) owns the gold.

...The simple solution is to create a legal and tax climate where people no longer want to buy a house because their needs are met through renting - long term security of tenure with built in ceilings on rental increases and with the balanace of power firmly tipped towards the renter. A tax environment that makes home ownership a very expensive luxury and which will reward investment in small and medium sized businesses. This is exactly the situation that exists in Switzerland - the population there invest their money in thriving Swiss businesses and rent throughout their lives. The government actively discourages home ownership through taxation. The only people I knew who owned their own homes in Switzerland were foreign tax exiles. Its also interesting to note the shift in attitude in Ireland (which has the highest levels or home ownership in the world) - where mortgaged property has gone from being considered an "asset" to rightly being seen as a liability.

 

It would be very easy to change the attitude of the population from pro home ownership to pro renting with a few straightfoward changes to the tax code and pension arrangements. Just think of all the billions currently being "invested" into unproductive property that could be use to finance businesses that actually create and produce things...

I don't think governments need to do anything to make home-ownership unattractive or prohibitively expensive. Making it a very expensive luxury would further entrench the power of corporations. If I had to choose between "mortgage slavery" and "rent slavery," the former is an easy choice to make. Mortgages end; rent doesn't.

Yes, governments have done too much pumping up the housing sector, but we don't need to swing to the other extreme.

This is the property

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32838047.html

You, sir, have excellent taste. That looks like a beautiful property in a beautiful location (it makes me almost cry about the shoeboxes I've considered buying in Chicago.)

Although it looks like the train runs right next to the property. Hopefully the trains are quiet.

RVM and MGN are also worth investigating.

RVM just listed on the AMEX leading many ppl to suggest that their shares were ready to explode upwards. As it happens, silver corrected just as RVM was listing. This may be a very good opp. For this company to be trading with a fully diluted mkt cap of $132 million is something.

You can't tax deflation.

^^ A very important point worth remembering.

U.S. home values fell in the first quarter at the fastest rate since late 2008, real estate data firm Zillow said on Monday, suggesting that a bottom will not be seen until 2012 at the earliest.

 

Zillow said its home value index fell 3 percent in the first three months of the year from the previous quarter, and was down 8.2 percent year-over-year.

 

The number of homeowners under water—or, those who owe more on the mortgage than their house is currently worth—amounted to 28.4 percent of single-family homeowners, representing a peak since Zillow began calculating the data in 2009.

 

That was up from 27 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42955097

"And so the margin hike rumor mill shifts from silver to crude. Pretty soon nobody will dare to invest any capital in commodities (or FX) for fear of an imminent 100% margin spike by the exchanges, causing the S&P to trade at 100x P/E, and letting China buy up every commodity at a 50% off. Another brilliant ploy to preserve the wealth effect while not accounting for any possible side effects of Printocchio's actions."

Maybe some of you guys will find this here as useful as I:

 

While the usual subprime mortgage suspects, like California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada used to rule the foreclosure roost and still have high volumes of distressed properties, the mid-west is seeing a surge in REOs now, thanks to the plain old recession. 40 percent of the Chicago market is foreclosures, 43 percent in Cleveland and 51 percent in Minneapolis. Home prices fell 8.7 percent in the Mid-West during the past three months compared to the previous quarter.

 

While the foreclosure crisis is abating on the front end, with fewer loans going newly delinquent, the pipeline of seriously delinquent loans is enormous. Banks are now ramping up the foreclosure process after the "robo-signing" paperwork scandal, but at their current pace it would take about four years to process all the bad loans through foreclosure and even longer to sell those homes out on the open market.

 

While buyer demand is rising, thanks to a slowly improving jobs picture, mortgage availability is still very difficult for the low to middle-income borrower, and falling prices don't help already weak consumer confidence in the housing market. If prices continue to fall further, which they likely will in the short term, the number of so-called "underwater" borrowers, those with negative equity, will rise even higher, which could in turn result in more loan delinquencies.

 

...46 percent of Massachusetts borrowers are underwater, according to LendingTree.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42904204

I read this as at least two more years of falling prices (depending on local particulars of course).

^^ Ladder in, ladder out.

Alex D. had a couple nice charts, but his reasoning is about real prices. He's totally failing to account for the fact a 2012 USD likely won't buy what a 2011 USD will.

The financial markets are forward-looking and anticipate. Hence, I expect gold and silver to lead and outpace price inflation as people anticipate monetary debasement. The metals will become overvalued at some point. But while the debasement continues (without an end in sight) there is little reason to get out of PMs.

For all the talk of the wonder down under and Australia's almost recession-proof economy, is this country becoming increasingly unaffordable for the people who live here and the migrants who want to make it their home? Anecdotal evidence abounds of Brits who would dearly love to emigrate, but have been put off by the soaring Aussie dollar and seemingly inexorably rising property prices. The oft-heard cry of visitors, that Australia has become ridiculously expensive, often finds an echo from the people who live here - Aussies and ex-pats alike.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/nickbryant/2011/04/australian_affordablity.html

I expect to be buying SLV puts today.

The excellent article below is, in part, guiding my thinking:

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1303393353.php

^^ He is risen!

Nice seeing you, Romans.

Indeed, but what is the next asset class?

I watch the ratios for signs of relative valuations: gold:Dow, gold:S&P, gold:oil, gold:copper, gold:real estate, these will give us some very important clues.

Many people have their eyes on natural gas, uranium, farmland - and all of these could work.

I would now add foreign stock indicies to the mix: gold:Shanghai, gold: India, gold:Brazil.

Well........... As I'm going through a messy divorce and my investment assets will be valued and divided up in June a big drop would suit me well........

 

Then a massive rally would really make my year !

 

Mind you that would make Acton Girl even more grumpy....................

 

I'm not selling anything before I face the 'contempt of court' threat !

You may have had alternatives, depending upon the specific circumstances. I will say no more.

Will Silver Surge Following The Nationalization Of Bolivia's Silver Mines By Embattled President Evo Morales?

 

report from Bolivian daily La-Razon states that Bolivia's president Evo Morales is now planning on expropriating zinc, silver and tin mines sold off by previous governments. Bloomberg reports that "Morales will announce a decree May 1 to “dismantle the privatization model,” said Nicolas Fernandez, a spokesman for state mining company Corp. Minera de Bolivia, known as Comibol. "The government is recovering all the privatized companies,” Fernandez said today in a telephone interview from La Paz. “When the decision is taken, Comibol will be ready to manage these mines.”" Among the contracts to be affected are those with Glencore International AG, Pan American Silver Corp., and most importantly, Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp., which is operator of the San Bartolome mine: the world's largest pure silver mine.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-silver-surge-following-nationalization-bolivias-silver-mines-president-evo-morales

I've been saying for a while, the higher these metal prices go the more political threats there will be to the miners. This is the exact reason why I haven't traded CDE in over a year.

Honestly, and this makes the news? Just shows you how tight the silver market must be that a bet 100,000 puts

(strike $25, 100 contracts each put, value $0.10) makes the news.

 

 

I mean I wonder how many times Exxon or Conoco or Citi has an option bet of $1m. Every day, I'd venture.

Hope the trader loses his shirt!

 

EDIT: I am really having a dig at the amount of leverage (and *paper* leverage, at that); 100,000 *100 = 10,000,000 contracts. That's a LOT of silver. 10,000,000 x 5000 ounces. Geez. Did I get my math wrong?

It could also just be a hedge. For all we know the trader could have $100 million in silver stocks.

I like the way she moves:

Silver 41.75 +0.82