Carlton
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Posts posted by Carlton
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you can't help your self can you! I haven't missed Goldfingers point as he put it so succinctly!
I am not even sure what your point is. Which is my point - if you get my point!
I think this post demonstrates that philosophy is not a ten minute per day hobby.
Philosophy is not "wobbling," it's reasoned argument; it requires a lot of work and a lot of time, which is something Gen-Y may not be well prepared for.
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From FOFOA:
In fact, my position is that silver will rise just fine against a falling dollar. In fact, it may gain a little additional levitation over other commodities due to the lingering monetary sentimentality put forth by Trace and others. But it will also be limited by the economy. Where it will not follow gold is through the change in both market and function that will deliver a real, non-inflation-adjusted massive one-time return. The Freegold reset as the gold market turns physical and the gold function becomes the monetary store of value par excellence. A free market Giant event being front run by the Central Banks and a few small physical gold advocates.Perhaps a worthy first post in the thread.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/12/windmill...aw-men-and.html
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Hamilton produces some more good research.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/hamilton/dec172010.html
Here, he shows that Ag has now caught up with Au's performance and that this, typically, leads to 1 year+ of consolidation/correction. This may be a strong indication that there is no rush to add to positions and that we may have 1 year or so to accumulate before the next major push higher.
Of course, events may unfold differently this time. FWIW, I still wouldn't bet against Sinclair's $1650 Au and what that means for Ag.
(Sorry, present computer won't let me direct link charts.)
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This recent article is of interest on the GSR;
Stephan Bogner | Published 12/7/2010
This channel implies that the ratio is trending higher. Many of us believe, for fundamental reasons, that the ratio is trending lower.
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Perfect bounce exactly back from the line.
Does this plot indicate that a significant period (1yr?) of consolidation/correction is in order?
I'm not suggesting, just asking about how you interpret this plot.
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This is why I'm sitting on gold... getting more conservative in my middle ages....
I'd add that from another angle it may prove to be the safest currency in the end.
Darryl Guppy seems to somewhat agree with you:
The linkage between the U.S. dollar and gold has been weakened. Dollar down, gold up is not longer a simple relationship equation so traders need to trade each of these based on the trend analysis of the individual instruments – gold or the dollar. The only constant is that trend volatility is king so traders must watch this behavior in each market. Do this and it’s a good Christmas present just like the free Christmas hamper we have on offer for all readers of this column.http://www.cnbc.com/id/40561096
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Gold Breakout in Real Terms Means Good Times are Ahead for Gold Bulls
We can see that Gold has already broken out against both Corporate and Treasury Bonds. The breakout against Corporates is very significant as it comes after a 2-year base. Meanwhile, Gold has just broken out against Currencies (ex- US Dollar) and a breakout against Stocks appears imminent. Commodities are the only group holding up against Gold.
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This may be good to see from a gold-holder's perspective, indicating that gold remains a more conservative (and possibly safer) asset than the commodities.
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I'm floored!!!!!!
Sprott:
How high will gold go?I think gold is the reserve currency today. There is not a currency in the world that it hasn’t appreciated against by at least 300 per cent. And it has beaten every stock market. You can’t even rent a safety deposit box in Germany because they are all full of gold and silver … I am pretty convinced that gold will go a lot higher because it is under-owned as only 1 per cent of people’s money is in it. It could go to $2,000 an ounce. I could imagine it at $5,000. I am not giving a time frame on that, but I could certainly see that happening. But the real story now is silver.
Why are you more bullish on that metal?
Gold has traded at a ratio of 16-to-1 to silver in terms of price, but today it trades in the range of 50 to 1. I think the gold-to-silver ratio is going to go back to 16 to 1 given the passage of time, say three to five years. And I bet you that silver overshoots. The gold-to-silver ratio may even get down to 10 to 1. I believe that the price of silver has been suppressed.
Do you like base metal stocks because of China’s growing demand?
I wouldn’t be a buyer today. If interest rates go up in Europe and you have these policies of contraction, how much can China bear? I don't believe in the growth of the developed countries, and China needs the developed countries to buy goods.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-inves...#articlecontent
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Looks a bit like the NASDAQ in '99 :o
Only an ounce of gold isn't some tech stock with no revenue and no real assets.
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Mumbai: Gold benchmark futures on Wednesday struck a record high of Rs. 20,625 per 10 grams, tracking firm global markets. Analysts expect the rally to continue and breach Rs. 21,000 in coming sessions.
At 10:40am, the contract was at Rs. 20,589, up 0.25% after gaining 1.3% in the previous three sessions. The earlier record of 20,624 was hit on Tuesday.
“Gold is expected to trade positive due to continuing debt problems in Europe, and may witness Rs. 21,000 by end of the week,” said Pranav Mer, senior analyst with Mangal Keshav Commodities.
http://www.livemint.com/2010/12/01101600/G...igh-Rs-210.html
SINGAPORE, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Gold held near its highest in
more than two weeks on Wednesday as growing fears about
Portugal's debt pummeled the euro, sending bullion priced in
the single currency to a record high.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesN...E6N102D20101201
Perhaps USD holders should take advantage of these "low" dollar prices.
...or perhaps not. DYODD.
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Stewart Thomson:
3. The conventional view in the public, and a view held by many institutional money managers, is that lower rates produce higher gold prices (correct), and higher rates produce lower gold prices. Well, sometimes, yes. Sometimes, no. Sometimes higher rates produce an upside gold parabola.
4. On the second situation, higher rates and gold, in a commodity demand-related gold bull market, higher rates are a negative for the price of gold. In such a situation, gold functions as a commodity, and the economy gets higher prices as demand for goods increases. The cost of borrowing increases as the demand for loans increases because business conditions are solid. As the cost of borrowing rises, that hurts demand. Prices (int rates) for money and the price for goods both fall.
9. The history of institutional money flows in a currency and bond panic is a massive flow of liquidity into the stock market. Having said that, what do YOU think happens to the Gold Price Thermometer of global financial health what that occurs, or is thought to be about to occur? I don’t think most in the gold community really understand what just happened to the bond market, and what this event means for gold.
16. That initial shock on gold is going to involve the wrong view by institutional money managers that higher rates are negative for gold. If the scenario plays out, it could cause a big hit on gold of hundreds of dollars to the downside, perhaps as much as $500, a massive handoff of gold, from the fundsters to the banksters. But what actually occurs is going to depend on how the banksters play out their Awakening Game.
17. The theory is that falling bond prices are positive for the US dollar, because a higher rate of interest attracts institutional capital. I want to draw your attention to the 1979 period of time, when the US dollar began to rally, and the floor traders and large speculators began to short gold, thinking they were about to make piles of free money. The banksters were on the other side of that gold trade. Long Gold. What happened? Gold accelerated its rise, while the US dollar itself surged higher. The (leveraged) gold top callers shorted more, sure the top had to be in. Instead, gold surged hundreds of dollars higher, frying Team Shorty Pants to a golden crisp.
18. Today, analysts are thinking that a declining bond market is a positive for the US dollar and a negative for gold. That’s the view the banksters want everyone to have. All is fine, all is A-ok. A-ok or Z-ok, what’s a few letters in the alphabet of difference? For the record, I’m in the things are Z-ok camp, and have been since Dec 1999, when I told my people to get out of the stock market and begin gold items accumulation. Arthur Ziekel, head of Merrill Lynch Asset Mgt at the time, said “it’s 1929 again”. Ironically, millions of Merrill clients said, “No, it’s wieners to the sky forever time”.
19. What you are witnessing here and now with Bill Gross’ investors is an instant replay in the bond market, of the stock market with Arthur Ziekel.
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Gold Stocks now… are likely the greatest market play, in anything, of the past 100 years.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Thomson/nov102010.html
How 'bout them apples?
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An interesting link I saw on JSmineset:
Gold's 7 Parabolic C Waves - Projection $1600
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I believe that gold has traded in a repetitive ABCD pattern since the inception of its secular bull market in late 2001. The C wave of the pattern has characteristically concluded with a parabolic, near vertical ascent of price. We are currently in a C wave and I expect that our immediate future will witness a truly exciting and hair raising parabolic advance that will likely take gold to $1,600.
http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2010/11/g...projection.html
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An anomoly in the pattern is seasonally it is the wrong time of year, ie I was expecting the peak in March - April as per previous peaks.
Yes, instead we seem to be on course for a peak in winter/spring 2011. Perhaps the delayed rally was due to the power of the deflationary collapse in 2008. It wouldn't surprise me for the collapse to affect silver more than gold.
Yes, don't touch SLV. Get the real stuff.Well, it may make a nice short if you're long silver miners.
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I'm starting to doubt that the correction in silver (if it ever goes down [uh-oh, am I marking a top??] ) will be very deep. The money buying silver here seems deep and concerted, i.e., "smart money." The smart money is not likely to be buying into a top before a dramatic fall.
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Oh, yes, I want gold down to $950 ASAP!
But what I want and what I predicted happening, warned of happening, and now see happening are different things.
EDIT: The point is, there is always a top caller out there who warns you that gold might go down, and truly enough, it goes down every other tick. But the point is that you have to be in it because it might run away and you'll never get a chance to buy in at these old prices again. I have been in with 100% of my liquid wealth (in fact, with slightly more than 100%, but that is a different story). Now I watch this and my SIPP is not ready to get started yet because it is taking ages.
Meanwhile, I am "earning" a good amount of "money". An illusion, since my gold and silver has stayed the same all through that recent run-up.I also have a bunch of USD in a retirement account and there are no PM investment options available in that account. A withdrawal is difficult to accomplish, although with some lying I may be able to make a withdrawal. Otherwise, I can borrow from my account and do as I wish with the money (buy PMs and PM related assets). I am confident the transaction would be a winner for me but I find the process cumbersome. About 35% of my liquid assets are in this account, so it's a significant piece of change that I can't put into PMs.
However, I've been treating this account as my ultimate cash backstop, in case the stock market crashes again and takes PM stocks with it (unlikely).
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More entertaining than informative:
Zorro says buy silver, silver, silver, you morons!
i'm a happy boy
SILVERCORP METALS INC. 11.73 +16.37%
I got stopped out of that ***** at $2.15 and never bought back. I will always listen to my sig in a market like this one.
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Katz:
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1288619075.phpFor example, from mid-1970 to year-end 1974 gold made a steady advance (from $35/oz. to just under $200/oz.). Instead of silver tracking this move it went sideways until the end of 1973 and then exploded (from $2/oz. to almost $6½/oz.) by early 1974. Silver’s move up was much more rapid and occupied a much shorter period of time.From mid-1976 to January 1980, gold moved up from slightly above $100/oz. to $875/oz., again in a gradual pattern. Silver, however, moved sideways until 1978 when it began its incredible move, known as the Hunt silver bubble, from $5/oz. to over $50/oz. Bunker Hunt tried to corner the world’s supply of silver and wound up virtually broke. He learned the economic lesson that one cannot manipulate a free market.
This gives us a good picture of the character of silver. Silver is the volatile precious metal. It spends much less time going up than gold, but it goes up much more rapidly. As noted above, we have recently spent a 2½ year period during which gold has been up nicely while silver has been essentially flat. Then around Labor Day silver broke out from a giant (almost) ascending triangle and from a smaller (exactly) ascending triangle. I spotted these two technical signals as telling us that silver was ready to move.
It is true that silver can be dangerous, but if you also follow gold and keep in mind that the two goods move in sympathy with each other, this gives you a check and balance. Gold is not dangerous. It moves conservatively and moderately, and it obeys the technical signals very nicely. When a move in silver is confirmed by a technical signal in gold, this gives added confidence.
Ag just hit a new 30-year high. Is it time for a new silver thread yet? Gold gets one every month.
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I'm not really wanting/expecting a silver correction, other than as a buying opportunity, but may I remind you similar feelings were rampant about 2 years ago and silver corrected violently from 21 to 8. I don't see that on the cards but neither did I then...
2008 was a once/twice/thrice in a lifetime financial panic; I don't think we'll see that again, and if we do I doubt that the PMs will be affected to the same extent.
There seems to be significant physical demand at or right below the current market prices, that's going to limit the downside.
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Do it!
China should significantly boost gold in reserves –mediaReuters
BEIJING, Oct 27 – China should significantly boost the amount of gold <XAU=> held in state reserves, a newspaper run by China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday, citing a local researcher.
Meng Qingfa, a researcher with China Chamber of International Commerce, was quoted by the International Business Daily as saying that China should eventually boost its gold reserves to a level equal to that held by the United States.
U.S. reserves stood at 8,133 tonnes as of the end of June, significantly higher than China’s current level of 1,054 tonnes.
"Doubtlessly, if the yuan is set to become an international currency like the dollar or the euro, China has to get a huge gold reserve to support it, and a reserve of 1,054 tonnes is far from being enough," Meng said.
http://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/201010...ld-21231dd.html
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I am quite surprised by the action thus far this morning.
+$20 and +$0.45
Is the correction over? I wouldn't conclude too much from one day, gut this looks like strong price action.
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Double top?
If one looks at the gold chart in USD, GBP and many other currencies there have been "double tops" all over this past decade. The "double tops" will continue as gold sets new highs, retraces, goes back to the recent high, and then beyond.
That chart also looks like a cup-and-handle; and the cup-and-handle interpretation is supported by the fundamentals of monetary debasement.
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Many learned folks (but not too many!) seem to be gunning for $20:
Przemyslaw Radomski:
This week’s long-term chart for silver shows that the recent daily price increase has been accompanied by huge volume (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.) Note that in the past, when a spike was seen in daily trading volume above the 20M level, a price decline followed shortly thereafter in five of the six examples seen since the beginning of 2009. Such a volume level has been seen in recent days (marked with red and black arrows) and for this reason, a sharp decline in the coming days will not be very surprising and is, in fact, expected.
Based on past trends for similar length rallies, there is a good chance we will see a sharp decline in silver’s price very soon given volume this big. A likely target level for this decline will be in the $20 to $21 range for the SLV ETF, slightly higher than we have stated last week.
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1287494534.php
Another, Katz, says $20-21:
If we look at the bigger picture in silver, we see another ascending triangle (or almost ascending triangle). Look at the power of the breakout above the March 2008 peak of $21. Two points occur to the experienced chartist. One, silver is about to make a powerful move to the upside. And two, for the short term and in the minds of those people who believe in a fair price silver has gone up too far, too fast. Silver has spent most of the past 2½ years in a small range just under $21. To most traders, $21 silver is the high side of the fair price. If you ask one of these people just what is the fair price for silver, he would say, “Well, I don’t know exactly, but it is certainly not $26. $20 or $21 is more fair.
So if we see silver hit its price objective line and then give a few short term sell signals, this will tell us to expect a short term decline. The larger chart tells us that we have gone too far, too fast and that a pull back to the top line of the triangle is in order. In other words, the last sellers will be those who believe the fallacy of the fair price and think that the fair price is about $20-$21. When these people have done their selling, the way will be clear for the next bull phase.
An interesting situation is developing and can be seen by comparing the 1 year charts of both gold and silver. Normally the two precious metals move together, but starting in late August there is a significant disparity. In its entire bull move since the Abelson low in late July, gold is up about 15%. But despite starting a month later silver is up 35%. This is, particularly in the minds of the short term traders who believe in the fallacy of the fair price, too far and too fast. Silver is too far above its fair price.
you can't help your self can you! 
Meanwhile, I am "earning" a good amount of "money". An illusion, since my gold and silver has stayed the same all through that recent run-up.
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
As has been explained previously on this website any many others, there are particular reasons why gold is the best form of hard money rather than other commodities. It's durable, fungible, divisible, has a convenient form factor, and is not consumed very much (therefore gold is dramatically less subject to transient supply/demand changes and does a better job at stabilizing the price level).