wrongmove

I don't know - I just posted that I am a bit of a TA skeptic, but I certainly find TA, and the opinions of those who use it, of interest.

Well, he's bearish on the short, medium and long term, so I would say he is pretty bearish overall. As for TA, I am still a bit of a skeptic, but less so than I was initially. I posted the article as it chimes with the OP in this thread, and reminds that some people see downside, as well as upside, to the PoG - to broaden the debate. I am interested in what the TA users make of the analysis.

On the technical front, Merv Burak has been pretty accurate so far. He is very bearish on gold for TA reasons, similar to Ker. Technically Precious with Merv "For week ending 17 October 2008 It’s been down hill all week with only Wednesday providing a minor bit of relief. It looks like we might be heading for new lows as early as this coming week. Never a dull moment...... .......From the long term stand point the indicators are not positive. Gold is below its negative sloping long term moving average line while the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is well below its negative trigger line. Long term gold can only be rated as BEARISH........ .......On the intermediate term things are no better. Although gold has been tracking a somewhat lateral path for a few weeks it has now broken decisively to the down side and is once more heading lower. It is below its now negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator has also moved into its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line. As for the volume indicator, well that indicator is still moving sideways (although I do not have the volume data for Friday which might push it lower) and is sitting right on top of its trigger line. The trigger itself is sloping slightly to the down side. All in all there is nothing here to grab on to and seem bullish. Gold, on the intermediate term, can only be rated as BEARISH...... .......Other than Wednesday it was a lousy week for gold. Gold is quickly moving away from its short term negative moving average line and the momentum indicator is moving deeper inside its negative zone. The daily volume action is low and not giving us any specific message at this time. Finally, the very short term moving average line remains below the short term line indicating that the down side prevails. The only rating one can give the short term with these indicators is a BEARISH rating..........." His capitals, not mine, BTW. I would appreciate any comments on his analysis by the TA users.

Article in yesterday's Independent: Spending on gold nears $3bn as investors flee shares To put this into context, global mine production is around 2,500 tons, or $60B, per year.

First, I am sorry to hear the deal did not go through. This must be very stressful for you, and you have my sympathy, and I am sure everyone elses here too. At least you must have some equity cushion, if the deal would have generated a large pot of cash. If you do have any cash atm, I would use it to pay down the mortgage, personally, rather than buy gold (remember to discount any gains on investment against the "losses" incurred by continuing to hold debt, rather than pay it down). Just one thing. The deal falling through is a sign that retail credit is not easily available, even secured credit. Punters do not have access to "unlimited money", even if retail banks do. So maybe you will not need gold as badly as you think. Make sure you are on a fixed rate mortage, and if hyperinflation kicks in, you can pay the mortgage off for the equivalent of one day's rent, and you will have somewhere to live in the aftermath. Not as much fun as making a "killing" on gold, but much, much better than nothing, IMHO. The very best of luck with whatever you decide to do.

Don't ask me! I can pretty well guarentee you will do better by just trying to buy when you see value, and holding on until the value disappears (hopefully because the price has risen, or because things have changed). I bet experienced traders can have a lot of fun in this market, but it doubt it will be fun for a beginner. Is it 10% of spreadbetters that actually make a profit, or is that an urban myth?

You don't have to think like this if you are trading. You bought, then sold on a spike. You banked a profit. You will next buy when you see a good chance of a subsequent rise (or short a fall). It doesn't matter what price you rejoin at, as long as you re-exit with a further profit. I'm not a trader, but I think it is an entirely different mindset.

I like to read both. The views of those on the coal face are always highly valuable IMHO. You can easily filter out the pure VIs. They don't bother to address the downside risks. And there are always downside risks. But I also like to read the take of the "disinterested". It can add objectivity, and some people just don't have the temperament for all-in full-time trading and investment, but have an excellent understanding of how the system works.

Well, the East would rise pretty damn fast if we switch to gold as money at this point!

You really haven't grasped a word I have posted, have you? edit: there really is no answer to your post. I have stated my case as clearly as I am able. It is just a theory, but I believe it is more than adequately backed by the data. I will have to respectfully agree to disagee with you on this one!

So am I.

There are some very wealthy people who enjoy cocaine, too. They don't get the law changed, they just avoid it.

(hot) money drove it up there in the first place. Removing that (hot) money will bring it down. Why all the surprise on the way down, and not a comment on the way up?

I just posted the same on another thread! Big loses for sellers of Lehmans CDS need to be settled (in cash)

This seems a silly thing to say to me, when the physical market in the East is five times a big as the Western investment market.

Was BV designed with this sort of volitility in mind?

There is little evidence I can find for that - most are predicting dropping global demand, and OPEC are starting to talk about supply reduction, but I don't know.

Ker, your posts are among the highlights of GEI for me. I am much less of a TA skeptic than I was say a year ago. I would be very interested on your view of this. Above, you say that oil is technically deeply oversold, and yet in the physical market, inventories are rising, and are above average for the time of year. So oil looks if anything slightly overbought in the physical market. How should I reconcile these facts? In a major, multiyear bear, would things tend to look a bit technically oversold all of the way down?

In fact, an alloy of 8.5% Pt (density 21.45), with 91.5% DU, then gilded with Au, would have exactly the same density as gold, but cost only about 10% of the real thing.

Depleted uranium (19.1) has a very similar density to gold (19.3), so faking bigger bars would be easier and harder to detect today than pre-nuclear industry days. Then you had to use platinum, which rather defeated the object. DU is cheap enough to make bullets out of.

Especially if they set it at 95% as an "emergency measure" with wide support from the gainless population. All in one basket is never a great idea, surely. If you really expect hyperinflation, I would at least put a roof over your head first, if you haven't already.

If ever a situation was made for gold, this is it. Even I can't believe it hasn't taken off. I wish it would. I sometimes think that until we get this last little firework out of the way, people have an excuse for maintaining that "get rich quick" mentality, rather than finally, for the first time in about 80 years, looking reality in the eye again. (Not aimed at any individual here, or elsewhere, just at the late 20th century mindset, which really should have moved on a decade ago, and now finally may)

I don't think that most buyers of gold are that worried about inflation, much more worried about instability. Any tangible asset will hedge inflation to some extent, but most assets are going down rather quickly. So I would expect "good" news for the general economy to lift shares and commodities and dent gold, but only for the 10 minutes it takes to work out that the news isn't really that significant. I have to say, I thought that gold would either rocket or plummit this week. So far it has done neither - it is actually working as a safe haven, and very ironically, a hedge against a strong dollar! Still, you takes your gains when you can get them, I'm sure.

I am not convinced that they much care about the PoG. It is a tiny market, they could sink gold, or send it to the moon, any time they want. But all I see is the usual patterns of trading activity and volitility I see everywhere else, somewhat exagerated by the small size of the market. No-one cares? Because they are a bunch of robbin' b'stards and they haven't even worked it out for themselves yet. So they can cover up the deflation and pretend that their policies are working. I would have said the same about inflation a year ago. But it doesn't work. M3 is all around us. We can see what is going on in large chunks of M3 by just looking out of the window or picking up a paper. I would try to spin the situation out until I retired, and hope the next guy has an idea If they print dollars, they cancel their debt, but also their entire asset base. Foreigners can just move in and clean up. Far worse than deflation in this respect. They would have to shut down trade to prevent this, and because they have no means to pay. It would only look tempting to a complete idiot, so I accept I it may happen, but I consider it very unlikely. The American people are not a bunch of morons, despite what some say, and they are not afraid to act, when the times call for it. It took a big drop on the dow to scare them into the bail-out. To actually print money is a big step up from there.