Perishabull Posted March 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Couple of trades so far today; An early short (too early) at 14:37 based on divergence, filled at 2783, stopped out pretty much immediately for a loss of 2 points. Further sell signal at 14:44 again based on divergences, short filled at 2786.75, this was slightly better with the market selling off 6 points, moved stop to breakeven before being stopped out during a rally up to my stop, the market then continued to sell off down to as low as 2771.75, slightly annoying since the stop only got taken out by 0.75 of a point but that's trading. Trade 1 Trade 2 Currency divergence in addition to sell signal for trade 2; Close but no cigar................................ How about the A$ - Do you think it looks like a good short against the USD ? Well this was back on 23rd February, not that I called for a short, I just pointed out the close under the trendline. Australian Dollar futures (Daily); Trendline break You could argue we've just seen a further break of longer term resistance, and a test against it... Australian Dollar Futures; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 The RANsquawk service was pointing out that today from around 16:20 onwards what appeared to be a sell program was was setting off a whole load of stops, apparently it leaves a certain pattern on the chart; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2012 Short at 16:09, filled at 2753.50, market started selling off down to as low as 2741. Moved stop to protect 7.5 points of profit; NASDAQ; Dollar Index; It looked as though the dollar index was in line to rally up and through apparent resistance at 79.52, causing a further sell off in the NADSAQ, but it didn't come (at least not yet), market rallied up taking out my stop for a 7.5 point gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 Long at 15:25, filled at 2751.75, my custom indicator suggested a long; Stopped out for a loss of 2 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 There were three other trades today, none positive, not so good....I'll refrain from posting the gory details. All of them legitimate trades according to my strategy but none with a positive bent. I think probably it's time for a; It's quite disappointing to admit, but my strategy does not appear to be a big winner. At one point I was up double digit percentage points, now it's down to single digits, although I withdrew some to buy stuff. Nevertheless I'm not disappointed about the monetary aspect, it's more the fact that my second strategy, that I thought would be a big winner, is only a slight winner. I'm not doing this because I want to make a few percentage points over the base rate, I'm doing it because I want to prove to myself I can be in that top 1%, not the top 5% or 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 30, 2012 Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 There were three other trades today, none positive, not so good....I'll refrain from posting the gory details. All of them legitimate trades according to my strategy but none with a positive bent. I think probably it's time for a; It's quite disappointing to admit, but my strategy does not appear to be a big winner. At one point I was up double digit percentage points, now it's down to single digits, although I withdrew some to buy stuff. Nevertheless I'm not disappointed about the monetary aspect, it's more the fact that my second strategy, that I thought would be a big winner, is only a slight winner. I'm not doing this because I want to make a few percentage points over the base rate, I'm doing it because I want to prove to myself I can be in that top 1%, not the top 5% or 10%. Tough news to give out and evaluate, but very straight and honest with no if buts and maybe's! This is the attitude I am sure will bring you big rewards as you move forward! To me you seem to want to catch knives in falling markets by going long, and call tops in rising markets by going short on the recent trades, maybe a higher timeframe directional indicator would improve results ? By the way I know nothing and I am rung one on the ladder of learning! But if you could tie-up the directional higher time frame indicator with your entry signal then maybe it would filter out bad signals? Regards ML Thanks again for the honest journal, and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 30, 2012 Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 There were three other trades today, none positive, not so good....I'll refrain from posting the gory details. All of them legitimate trades according to my strategy but none with a positive bent. I think probably it's time for a; It's quite disappointing to admit, but my strategy does not appear to be a big winner. At one point I was up double digit percentage points, now it's down to single digits, although I withdrew some to buy stuff. Nevertheless I'm not disappointed about the monetary aspect, it's more the fact that my second strategy, that I thought would be a big winner, is only a slight winner. I'm not doing this because I want to make a few percentage points over the base rate, I'm doing it because I want to prove to myself I can be in that top 1%, not the top 5% or 10%. Tough news to give out and evaluate, but very straight and honest with no if buts and maybe's! This is the attitude I am sure will bring you big rewards as you move forward! To me you seem to want to catch knives in falling marketsby going long, and call tops in rising markets by going short on the recent trades, maybe a higher timeframe directional indicator would improve results ? By the way I know nothing and I am rung one on the ladder of learning! But if you could tie-up the directional higher time frame indicator with your entry signal then maybe it would filter out bad signals? Regards ML Thanks again for the honest journal, and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 Thanks ML, it's a tough business. I think perhaps it's case of I thought I knew something when perhaps I didn't. I think it's certainly possible I have a peripheral awareness of certain aspects without having a full understanding of them. You point out one of my great strengths which is to be straight with myself no matter how brutal the reality is. Perhaps I'm expecting great success to come too easily... Certainly more work is needed, that I can be sure of. To me you seem to want to catch knives in falling marketsby going long, and call tops in rising markets by going short on the recent trades, Yes, I am very aware of this, and have wondered whether it's down to an excess of arrogance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 30, 2012 Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 Thanks ML, it's a tough business. I think perhaps it's case of I thought I knew something when perhaps I didn't. I think it's certainly possible I have a peripheral awareness of certain aspects without having a full understanding of them. You point out one of my great strengths which is to be straight with myself no matter how brutal the reality is. Perhaps I'm expecting great success to come too easily... Certainly more work is needed, that I can be sure of. Yes, I am very aware of this, and have wondered whether it's down to an excess of arrogance... I DOUBT IT IS EITHER ! More likely trying to call a top or bottom as to enter a risk free position! Ie Buy a low or sell a top ! However maybe a way to look at it is to think of the entire Scottish pack running flat out at you and you picking a spot on the pitch were they will turn if you get it wrong they flatten you? Maybe it would be easier to go with the pack rather than against it, getting in early on a directional trend and going with the flow for a small profit! Far eaiser said than done I would of thought ! Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 Far eaiser said than done I would of thought ! Regards ML I'm glad we can agree on something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 30, 2012 Report Share Posted March 30, 2012 I'm glad we can agree on something! Yep MY spelling is crpa!! Night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 31, 2012 Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 It is easy to lose money when one gets over-confident. You are then less likely to do your research as thoroughly as you should. Maybe you should consider adding a tool to your toolbox. I like using a "family of moving averaging". Have you thought of trying that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2012 It is easy to lose money when one gets over-confident. You are then less likely to do your research as thoroughly as you should. Maybe you should consider adding a tool to your toolbox. I like using a "family of moving averaging". Have you thought of trying that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted April 1, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2012 I'm going to take a break from trading for a number of weeks, it's a good time to take a break for a while I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted April 2, 2012 Report Share Posted April 2, 2012 I'm going to take a break from trading for a number of weeks, it's a good time to take a break for a while I think. Hope you come back refreshed with a new strategy P.D Always read this thread with interest, do sometimes wonder to myself if this technical trading is overly complicated, rather than perhaps as M.L states going with the trend; but maybe that's because I'm ignorant to the finer art. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted April 2, 2012 Report Share Posted April 2, 2012 Ah, the finer things in life. Good taste in music. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted April 6, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2012 Posted to the GDX / Gold share thread, do not comment on this here, thanks Performance of Crude oil futures compared to GDX over 3 years They were reasonably well correlated for a time. A look at the Crude Oil - GDX spread (Crude Futures minus GDX) over 3 years; Could nearing the top of the channel signal an impending low in GDX? Crude Oil - GDX spread with GDX Lows along the channel were good points to sell GDX, highs were good points to buy, with the exception of the end of April last year, but that was an obvious period of excess in the precious metals sector. GLD and GDX performance over 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 9, 2012 Report Share Posted April 9, 2012 I'm going to take a break from trading for a number of weeks, it's a good time to take a break for a while I think. Meaning: You think the markets are going no where? Perhaps I should park this back in the Open Blogs area, until you are ready to trade again. But you may want to comment on other issues here. What's the big issue where you live now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted April 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2012 Just taking a break as my existing strategy was not working as well as I would like. I'm busy looking at different approaches and testing them on past data. I'll still post, just unlikely to be posting trades for a while. Can't think of any major issues right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 9, 2012 Report Share Posted April 9, 2012 Just taking a break as my existing strategy was not working as well as I would like. I'm busy looking at different approaches and testing them on past data. I'll still post, just unlikely to be posting trades for a while. Can't think of any major issues right now. Okay. Thanks for the explanation. Do you want me to transfer the thread (temporarily) to the other section? Any thoughts you may have for the Beyond Gold thread would be appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted April 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2012 Okay. Thanks for the explanation. Do you want me to transfer the thread (temporarily) to the other section? Any thoughts you may have for the Beyond Gold thread would be appreciated I don't mind if you leave it here just now... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted April 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2012 Reached a decent milestone recently; I've tagged the 3K mark with my running, that's since December 2008. Had a look at a couple of charts, the first showing run distances when I started, the second is the most recent chart - showing how I've ratcheted up the distance over time. Looking to do the same thing with my trading, steady development, build it up over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted April 13, 2012 Report Share Posted April 13, 2012 WoW Mate, 3k !!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted April 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2012 I've recently been looking at a couple of different strategies for trading the NASDAQ futures. Each of them are based on different indicators I've come up with. The data used was from 3rd January 2012 to 31st March 2012. The first strategy results (based on a derivative of my PDI indicator); The second strategy results (using a $ Index based indicator); The results from the first one here really are not good, average gain per trade is just one point, completely invalidates that indicator. The results from the second are slightly improved but not by much, suggests there is slightly more merit to the indicator used for that one but again it wouldn't be smart to trade it when you know before you start the average yield per trade is going to be low. Still, this is the point of backtesting. I'll need to come up with something completely new and original. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted May 2, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2012 1st May rally in S&P 500 futures; Curiously the Dollar Index (Green) rallied in unison with the S&P500..what could that signal? European players buying dollars with their Euros before buying stock index futures? Or perhaps someone swapping out 30 year treasury futures for a mix of stock index futures are dollar index futures...? S&P futures with 30 year treasury futures (in purple) The subsequent retracement wasn't met with any measure of buying whatsoever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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