No6's Financial Markets Thread

[jerpy]

A few articles from this week.

 

One more from Bubb's mate Clem, some interesting points too on ADVFN's expansion, American markets, tie up with Continuum and M.D's threatening litigation on B.B's

 

These two answers interested me the most though..

 

When we spoke last, you had a fistful of reasons to be extremely bullish about the market. Could you elaborate?

I am extremely bullish, purely for technical reasons. The market is a bit of a game, or rather most people play it as a casino and while they really should play it like a farmer, nobody does. There's very few people out there who are investors - period. There are a lot of people out there who are speculators. They are basically driven by the market, the market is not driven by them.

 

The market is going through a secular change right now because the players that were winning were the institutions. The banks, brokers, Goldman Sachs and the proprietary trading desks were taking all the money and the market hasn't gone up in 10 years because they've been skimming cash from it. The reason they started doing the proprietary trading was because the old model of promoting companies, floating stocks and doing M&A got regulated out of existence after the dot com crash with all the law changes, suing and so on. They went undercover and started proprietary trading the market to death and nobody stopped them. So we had another disaster 10 years later and now they've been regulated out of doing that. On top of that, the bond markets are going to have a hard time as interest rates are going to go up so they are going to revert to the original model which is IPOs, promoting companies and M&A. Everything is cyclical. So that means they are going to be going around doing a charm offensive for equities. They are going to go and push equity investments to the private investors as there's a lot of money there and the market is going to go up and be strong.......

 

Do you have any advice in there for people that use bulletin boards?

I've broken it out into different areas. If you've got a company which has been discussed on a bulletin board where the people discussing it appear to be complete lunatics, don't go near that stock, in fact you might as well short it.

 

If you are going around and you find XYZ company and you go on the bulletin board and you only see a handful of posts and see that its got a good dividend but nobody seems to bother to discuss it; that's normally a good company.

 

If you've got one with 6,000 posts a day with people punching each other, jumping up and down then don't go near that one. The more crazy speculators are attracted to a stock, the more crazy that stock is. At a certain point risk doesn't equal reward, in game theory terms it's a saddle point. More risk, more return, more risk, more return, more risk, more return, more risk BANG!

 

At a certain point, more risk equals absolute certainty of death, you can normally judge that by the sound of the chaos. Then there's a beautiful sound of silence, that's normally a good sign because everyone is in agreement. When people agree, they stop talking.

 

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/from-...Site%20Features

[littledavesab]

Do you have any advice in there for people that use bulletin boards?

I've broken it out into different areas. If you've got a company which has been discussed on a bulletin board where the people discussing it appear to be complete lunatics, don't go near that stock, in fact you might as well short it.

 

.......Will the Chinese and Indian economies still need commodities and resources going forward? I can only see one answer - yes.

 

I have been browsing other bulletin boards recently - Motley Fool (a bit of a change as I am sure years ago this was mainly value orientated) & AVDFN and it is quite noticable how many are punting on junior oil and mining co's. Some good posters amoungst the lunatics. Quite a few private investors from various walks of life have got to grips with Oil and Mining plays. From a sentiment point of view I find this interesting although no doubt we are a long long way from a top.

 

 

[No6]

 

 

I have been browsing other bulletin boards recently - Motley Fool (a bit of a change as I am sure years ago this was mainly value orientated) & AVDFN and it is quite noticable how many are punting on junior oil and mining co's. Some good posters amoungst the lunatics. Quite a few private investors from various walks of life have got to grips with Oil and Mining plays. From a sentiment point of view I find this interesting although no doubt we are a long long way from a top.

Less volatile, but there are some good mining and oil plays in the FTSE350. You are not likely to get the rush from a 100% up move in a day, but you are also less likely to wake up in the morning and see the company down 50% or in administration.

[No6]

[No6]

Exchanges seem to be looking to merge. First LSE, then Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext, Hong Kong next?

 

(Reuters) - The Hong Kong stock exchange, the world's most valuable market operator, said it will consider international alliances after Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext announced plans to form a global trading powerhouse.

 

Deutsche and NYSE said they are in advanced talks to form a marketplace that would have annual trading volume exceeding $20 trillion, the latest in a flurry of mergers pointing to a shake-up of an industry under intense cost pressure from upstart electronic rivals.

 

"Due to changes in the financial market landscape, HKEx will consider international opportunities for alliances, partnerships and other relationships that present strategically compelling benefits consistent with its focus on markets in China," Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd said on Thursday.

 

It had not identified any opportunities, it added.

 

News Deutsche Boerse could be close to buying NYSE Euronext came shortly after the London Stock Exchange announced a bid for Canada's TMX.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/10/...eedName=topNews

 

 

[No6]

Seems like ages ago that I mentioned this company. Well, today the shares are on a rocket as apparently the company has received an approach from an unnamed company from ouside the sector. Wonder who that could be? Someone from outside the sector looking to buy into a green energy company. Could it be one of the big oil or gas companies?* I suspect that it would need to be one of the bigger companies. I thought at the time it looked cheap.

 

*Edit - the company has said that it is from outside the energy sector. Makes it even more intriguing.

 

Eaga said the company that made the approach is supportive of its plans to install solar photovoltaic panels on social housing buildings “in principle”. The company comes from outside the energy industry, Eaga added.

 

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast...tory_id=4023724

 

Bid for EAGA came in today at 120p a share from Carillion (I actually think this is cheap given EAGA's top position in the green market. It has a P/E of about 7). I think it was around the 60p area when first mentioned on this thread. I think that in an age of austerity it is likely that more of these support companies that bid for Government business are likely to join together in mergers that make sense rather than bidding for a smaller pot of money. Having said that, there are some that believe we will see more outsourcing as a cheaper alternative to the public services doing it themeselves and thus there will be more busines for the support services companies.

 

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Carillion PLC (CLLN.LN) will acquire Eaga PLC (EAGA.LN), a provider of residential energy efficiency solutions in the U.K., for GBP306.5 million in cash, the companies said Friday, as the support services giant seeks to exploit the country's drive toward a low-carbon economy.

 

The deal will create a business with combined support services revenue of about GBP3 billion and gives Carillion a strong presence in the U.K. energy services market.

 

"This will be a huge market in the next few years," Carillion Chief Executive John McDonough told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview, adding that it was about to "explode."

 

=============

 

Eaga, which posted pretax profit of GBP41.5 million on revenue of GBP762.2 million in the fiscal year ended May 31, 2010, had a bid pipeline worth about GBP4 billion, McDonough said. In contrast, Carillion said it expected to report that its order book Dec. 31 stood at some GBP18 billion, of which over GBP11.5 billion relates to support services. It reported pretax profit in 2009 of GBP147.7 million on revenue of GBP5.4 billion.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-703477.html

[No6]

He's done it again!

 

I got 4,000 Eaga (EAGA) at 81.9 - it was heading quickly higher on good volume. Beaten up by government contract cuts but according to the papers other companies are coming in for the kill. Timescale, would hope to keep till some kind of bid is on the table. Target 110 stop 77.

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/index.htm

[No6]

I found the article below on trailing stops quite interesting. What is the ideal stop level at which you should sell, especially a loser? This guy uses a 25% stop, which seemed quite high to me, but apparently using trailing stops at any level between 16% and 34% increased performance according to the study mentioned in the article. I do wonder how many would have the stomach for such a fall? Perhaps even more important, how many have the guts to sell at such a loss? It comes back to that age old question in trading, why is it that so many sell the winners quickly for fear of losing the profit they have, while hanging on to the losers in the hope that eventually it will come back?

 

But here's why I recommend a 25% trailing stop, anyway...

 

First, it's simple to understand. This way, readers can't tell me, "I didn't sell because I didn't understand your exit strategy." If I made it any more complicated, I'm certain readers would look for excuses not to sell something that is down.

 

Second, it works. My publisher, Stansberry & Associates, recently commissioned a study of trailing stops... We asked a statistics firm to test whether or not adding trailing stops to a great stock picker's picks would help his performance. The study tested all this great stock picker's newsletter recommendations from 2002 through 2010. Here's what we found:

 

Using trailing stops of 16% or higher increased performance, almost uniformly, all the way up to a trailing stop level of 34%. That is, using trailing stops at any level between 16% and 34% increased performance.

 

Is there something magic about the 25% level? Not really... But I've used it in my newsletters, very successfully, for the 16 years I've been writing.

 

http://www.dailywealth.com/1628/How-I-Alwa...rs-in-the-Money

[DontPanic]

Its an interesting question the level of trailing stops but the article doesnt seem to be based on anything of substance to back up the claims.

 

Personally I dont like the idea of mechanical stops on anything other than frequent trading accounts or spread betting.

If you look back over the last 4 years for many stocks you would have been better buying more if the price fell 25%, and if it falls another 25% then buy yet more.

I dont think you should sell without looking at the reasons for it e.g. lawsuit, economy grinding to a halt, weather etc otherwise could sell at the bottom before a rise.

 

Here are a few examples which spring to mind -

ABB.ST

SAND.ST

 

And you would have to be brave to keep buying as the fell but with BOL.ST and SVE.L you would have made a significant profit since 2006.

 

Guess its a little similar to buffets approach, find good companies and if the price falls buy more.

[No6]

Its an interesting question the level of trailing stops but the article doesnt seem to be based on anything of substance to back up the claims.

 

Personally I dont like the idea of mechanical stops on anything other than frequent trading accounts or spread betting.

If you look back over the last 4 years for many stocks you would have been better buying more if the price fell 25%, and if it falls another 25% then buy yet more.

I dont think you should sell without looking at the reasons for it e.g. lawsuit, economy grinding to a halt, weather etc otherwise could sell at the bottom before a rise.

 

Here are a few examples which spring to mind -

ABB.ST

SAND.ST

 

And you would have to be brave to keep buying as the fell but with BOL.ST and SVE.L you would have made a significant profit since 2006.

 

Guess its a little similar to buffets approach, find good companies and if the price falls buy more.

 

Well, look at EAGA mentioned above. At one stage last year it was around 160p, started to fall on fears of uncertainty over the Government's future commitment to the Warmfront scheme which brought in much of the company's income (but not profits). These fears panned out in the October emergency budget, when Warmfront was cut back more than expected. However, this company had the new Green Deal to look forward to and was moving away from Warmfront and had no debt, it was cash rich. Despite this, the share price was slaughtered and fell to about 50p and a P/E of 4/5, the short sellers got their pound of flesh. At one stage it was looked upon as possibly the next Connaught. However, Carillion thinks it is worth 120p, so clearly the market was totally out of synch with the real value of the company and even at that price the P/E is only 8.3, but how would you have set a stop loss on this one? It fell way in excess of 25%, yet had you bought at a 100p, held all the way down to 50p, prayed for recovery, you would now be sitting on a profit! However, had you bought at 160, you would now be taking a loss despite the proposed buyout.

 

Of course, I suppose most of the time these fallers don't come back and you can be sitting on a dog, if only in terms of share performance for years. The advice usually given is not to buy a flling knife and not to buy when something is falling just to top up as it is cheaper. Thing is, for every HMV, a company still making profits but hated by the market, current P/E around 1.5, you have an EAGA or BP, falling like a knife but then you get a big turnaround. I suppose it depends how confident you are on your analysis of the company concerned and whether ultimately it can overcome the market's irrational tendencies or ignorance to that value?

[No6]

Might be worth doing a weekly round up of some of the popular share tips out there. That's not say that the tips are worth investing in as we should all do our own research, but sometimes they give a good round up of the current state of a company and economy. So here are a few that caught my attention this week.

 

BG powers ahead as oil majors stutter.

 

Share price: 1470p (+30p)

 

There is one group of people for whom rocketing fuel prices are good news: investors in energy companies such as BG. But there was more to like about the company's results than that yesterday when it delivered an impressive "proved" reserve replacement ratio of 223 per cent. In other words, BG is finding much more oil and gas than it is pulling out of the ground. Production is also set to increase at a time when the oil majors are struggling to pull off the feat.

 

Of particular note in yesterday's statement was that BG expects to beat its previous long-term target of production growth of 6 to 8 per cent next year, thanks to higher than expected output in the US, Brazil and Australia. BG raised its forecast of daily production from Brazil by 2020 from 400,000 barrels of oil and gas to more than 550,000 barrels. By 2015, it also expects to produce 190,000 barrels equivalent of US shale gas a day, compared with its previous target of 100,000.

 

BG's total reserves and resources increased by 1.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent to 16.2 billion, representing 69 years of production at 2010 levels. Pre-tax profits increased to $6.7bn (£4.3bn) from $5.7bn on revenues of $17.2bn, up from $15.4bn. Revenue growth was slower in the fourth quarter but that is nit-picking, really. The final dividend, of 21.6 cents, was also up by 10 per cent.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...r-2208597.html#

 

Mondi

 

Share price: 526p (+14p)

 

another day, another update from a packaging company. Tuesday was Smurfit Kappa (we said, "Take profits"). Yesterday, it was Mondi's turn. And it was good news indeed from the group dual-listed in London and Johannesburg. Mondi confirmed profits for the year will come in "considerably higher" than the previous year, with basic underlying earnings in the range of 44 to 49 euro cents per share, compared with just 18.7c last time and analyst forecasts in the low 40s.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...r-2211127.html#

 

Vodafone

 

Its third-quarter update was slightly ahead of expectations, with service revenues up 2.1pc to £10.96bn.

 

The group's operations in emerging markets were strong. In Turkey, revenues rose 31.7pc and in India they were up 16.7pc. Both of these figures represent an acceleration from the previous quarter. The UK also managed to turn in a good performance, with revenues up 7pc.

 

=========

 

Investors who bought the shares when they were recommended in September 2009 would have locked in a yield of about 6.5pc, which will continue to grow at 7pc a year. However, new investors are still being offered a very attractive income , with a yield of just over 5pc, rising to 5.4pc next year. This is underpinned by the expected dividend from Verizon.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets...good-call.html#

 

Latest Naked Trader buys

 

OK onto some trades, some made live at the seminar on Friday and some made this week, these came up at seminar screens.

 

After brilliant success with Entertainment One which supplies kids shows, I'm looking for similar success with Character Group (CCT) which does the toys end of it.

 

Character looks really cheap and has all the big names including Peppa Pig and Dr Who. Debt is coming down, profits are up and could be a star of 2011. I bought some on a spreadbet live at the seminar at 192 and also bought some shares yesterday, 3,000 at 192.8. Target 280 stop 140.

 

My plan is unless any question marks appear is to hold Character Group for probably at least to the end of the year and perhaps longer.

 

Now a short-term trade. I noticed ITV has been going well - fundamentally it isn't one for me given the high debt and also its reality formats are looking a bit tired but I've gone for a short-term trade for a different reason, getting 100 a point at 84. ITV looks almost certain to be promoted into the FTSE 100 in a month or so and for that reason it's likely to spike higher. Well, except it's gone down to 83!

 

So the hopeful plan is it will get up to near 100ish just before entry and at that point I hope to sell and take the profit. Will this dastardly plan succeed? Watch this space.

 

Domino Printing (DNO) is a company doing very well. I've bought this before and made a nice sum - it's gone even higher since and bought back, this time a fiver at 676. Target 750 stop 620. A shortist to medium termish idea.

 

I got 4,000 Eaga (EAGA) at 81.9 - it was heading quickly higher on good volume. Beaten up by government contract cuts but according to the papers other companies are coming in for the kill. Timescale, would hope to keep till some kind of bid is on the table. Target 110 stop 77.

 

Laird (LRD) looks an interesting one, currently seems to be buying other companies and it's in a real growth spurt. Got 20 on the spreads at 166. Fundamentals look good with low debt and rising profits. Not sure of timescale here but could turn into a longer-termer. Target 220 stop 147.

 

And you might remember I had a nice success with 888 Group (888) recently. It rocketed on a possible bid from Ladbrokes and has come back, the market reckons it won't happen but that seems pretty much in the price. Given its recent reported figures were quite decent and a bid could still happen looks a worthy gamble on that now at 10,000 at 45.53. Target 60 stop 37.

 

African Minerals (AMI) came up on a screen at the seminar. Looks an interesting one and gives me more exposure to a hot sector. Seems to have plenty of cash and the exploration area looks good. So I got a tenner on the spreads at 533. Targetting 700, stop 470.

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/index.htm

 

 

[jerpy]

Personally I dont like the idea of mechanical stops on anything other than frequent trading accounts or spread betting.

If you look back over the last 4 years for many stocks you would have been better buying more if the price fell 25%, and if it falls another 25% then buy yet more.

I dont think you should sell without looking at the reasons for it e.g. lawsuit, economy grinding to a halt, weather etc otherwise could sell at the bottom before a rise.

 

Guess its a little similar to buffets approach, find good companies and if the price falls buy more.

 

With you on this.

 

Had a look at CEY last week, fundamentally nothing changed apart from the stock with based in Egypt Stop losses would have killed you holding this.

 

Consequently it got the sentiment hammer, but then take a look at the intra day of Thursday and it suggested a rapid rise was on the cards, with any clarity to the situation. Sure enough, it saw a significant gain from Friday's low's and it will be interesting to see the price action from here.

[DontPanic]

Just had a quick look at HMV. It SP=23p which is only just above the 2008 EPS of 22.1p.

Every year since 2006 its paid out 7.4p in dividends (but not likely this year).

Inventories are the largest asset category on the BS so not much recoverable value if it does go bankrupt but anyway it does look to be oversold and if your prepared to wait a few years could easily get back up near 100p.

[No6]

Just had a quick look at HMV. It SP=23p which is only just above the 2008 EPS of 22.1p.

Every year since 2006 its paid out 7.4p in dividends (but not likely this year).

Inventories are the largest asset category on the BS so not much recoverable value if it does go bankrupt but anyway it does look to be oversold and if your prepared to wait a few years could easily get back up near 100p.

 

I've been following the HMV story for some time, mainly because if you look at the earnings, dividends and profits it makes you wonder how the share price is justified. However, there are reasons to be careful which I would list as follows.

 

1) The market is betting on this company going bust because the main products that it sells, cds, dvds and books in a physical form are apparently going out of fashion. The market seems to believe that all of these things will be bought on line or in the form of downloads in the future, so why would anyone shop at HMV? I think the market is wrong and that HMV has the ability to adapt and change just as it did when vinyl, casette tapes, betamax and video died out, but who knows? So far, the market does not seem to give any credit to HMV in its ability to adapt and change to new market conditions.

 

2) The company is the most heavily shorted share in the market and has been for several years. The short sellers have had a field day with it and they are good at keeping bad news going when it suits them even if the real news is not that bad.

 

3) The market seems to dislike the company and rarely has anything good to say about it even when it was doing well and increasing profits.

 

On the plus side.

 

1) A Russian billionaire in the entertainment/publishing business has been buying up the share as they fall. He now owns about 6%.

 

2) I've read that the company has a break-up value of 40-50p a share. If true, why is it priced at 23p?

 

3) The company is finally moving into other areas of the entertainment business and providing it can survive its current problems and get continuing support from its creditors, could surprise big time on the upside, especially if the economy picks up.

 

It may well be oversold, but until the market finds some love for it I would steer clear. At the moment it is a trader's share. If you are an investor, the only reason to buy right now is either on the hope of short term private buy-out emerging or long (potentially very long) term recovery story.

[jerpy]

Just a bit to back up CEY

 

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Centamin Egypt Ltd., a gold company operating in the North African nation where weeks of street protests led to the ouster of the country’s president, said production hasn’t been affected by the political turmoil.

 

The company’s shares rose as much as 8.9 percent in London trading after Hosni Mubarak stepped down as Egypt’s president today, after earlier slumping by as much as 8.6 percent.

 

“We can reassure and confirm that production and gold sales continue as normal,” Bobby Morse, a spokesman for Centamin, said by phone before Mubarak quit.

 

Centamin shares rose 9 pence, or 6.4 percent, to 149 pence by the 4:30 p.m. close in London. The volume in the stock was more than five times the six-month daily average.

 

 

Close in Canada was around £1.55p

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-1...hares-soar.html

 

 

Of course it's sentiment driven, who knows how the market will react? But clear looking at the 2010 trend, it had some harsh treatment.

[No6]

Key level on the FTSE250 is fast approaching. Back in May 2007, 12287 was the high and 250 is now moving up towards a test of it in the next few weeks if things continue in this bull move. Currently 11830, it is getting closer every day. What is interesting about the FTSE 250 is that it supposedly is more a reflection of the UK economy than the FTSE 100, which has more of an international focus. FTSE 250 has, perhaps surprisingly, outperformed it since the low in November 2008.

 

On the other hand there are quite a few good international based companies in the FTSE 250 as below.

 

Wood Group

Hochschild Mining

Mondi

Ferrexpo

 

Top cap companies (value-billion).

 

ITV £3,364.10

John Wood Group £3,035.78

Meggitt £2,818.04

Tate & Lyle £2,766.96

Informa £2,751.90

Mondi £2,714.64

Hargreaves Lansdown £2,703.62

Ferrexpo £2,659.10

 

One or two of these will probably find their way into the FTSE100 soon.

 

[John Doe]

Think you might be right, for a while.

 

Had a nice 150 tick win on the dow drop from 12000, took profits to then see it go another 50, but heh, not complaining.

 

Still looking at the inverse fib line (Dow ~12370, S&P ~1260) for the next short point.

 

Guess the obvious question is why not go long until then? The answer is I am still bearish overall (probably always will be ).

 

Right, Dow 12330 in out of hours, close enough to my target.

 

Now short the Dow, let the falls commence

[No6]

Some of this week's more interesting tips (DYOR of course).

 

Kazakhmys

 

Our view: buy

 

Share price: 1,577p (+19p)

 

last year, when Kazakhmys chairman Vladimir Kim sold part of his stake in the mining group to the Kazakh government, there was some concern about the creeping hand of the central Asian state in the FTSE 100-listed group's affairs. At the time, Mr Kim agreed not to sell any more shares – save for a 4 per cent stake to promote liquidity during a possible secondary listing in Hong Kong – for a year.

 

Last night, the miner said Mr Kim had had a change of heart. That 4 per cent is off the table and he now intends to "retain his current holding [of around 28 per cent] in full". The entire stake will be locked up until October, effectively putting concerns about the prospect of rising state influence to rest, at least until the end of this year. The group also clarified that the possible Hong Kong listing remains on the agenda, though the size of the offering is likely to be smaller than was originally envisaged.

 

All this is positive, in our view. A Hong Kong listing will cement the miner's relationships in China, which is the world's biggest consumer of metals. And the smaller offering is the result of the strength of the Kazakhmys balance sheet. The potential dilative impact of the Hong Kong listing – which will likely require a new equity issuance because Mr Kim's stake is off the table – will be small.

 

But this is only part of the story. As with much of the mining sector, the investment case is underpinned by the recent boom in commodity prices. Copper has made a habit of striking new records week after week, helping drive interest in the likes of Kazakhmys. Results from other miners have cheered investors, with higher metals prices boosting profits. There is nothing to suggest that the same will not be true of Kazakhmys, which trades on undemanding multiples of less than 10 times forward earnings, when it updates next month. Buy.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...s-2215226.html#

 

African Aura

 

Africa's commodity wealth is immense – and largely undeveloped. That's why a plethora of mining companies are exploring the continent and developing its resources.

 

The one thing they have in common is risk. Many of them are loss-making or have no revenues at all. Some of them are exploring areas with significant country risk. That's why these investments should be treated as highly speculative. One such investment is African Aura.

 

====================

 

The company is also listed in Toronto. It also own 22pc of Stellar Diamonds, which is worth about £31m at the current valuation. The company has projects in Guinea and Sierra Leone.

 

Just to be clear, this investment is not one for widows and orphans and should be treated as a highly speculative – but promising – buy.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets...sing-play.html#

 

Ladbrokes remains a solid long-term bet

 

That the Ladbrokes share price fell back after the bookies posted full-year figures may be explained as nothing more than a case of buying on the rumour and selling on the news.

 

The stock had rallied into the results. Thus it would have made sense for some who had bought in on the hope of positive numbers to bank gains on news of healthy rise in annual operating profits (though the news on current trading was unimpressive).

 

========================

 

The last time we looked at Ladbrokes we held back from buying as it appeared fairly priced. At current levels it trades on forward earnings multiples of around 10.7 times, supported by a yield of nearly 5 per cent, according to Panmure Gordon. So it continues to command a decent valuation although it is far from pricey. Given the news on trading and the recent rally we might have been tempted to sell. But management's drive gives us confidence. Hold.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...t-2218343.html#

 

 

[jerpy]

Just a bit to back up CEY

 

Of course it's sentiment driven, who knows how the market will react? But clear looking at the 2010 trend, it had some harsh treatment.

 

More trouble for CEY on Friday, Reuters initial reports of 250 striking miners, became 50 low grade workers not having an impact on production according to the company.

 

Could be an interesting open Monday (higher or lower).

[No6]

More trouble for CEY on Friday, Reuters initial reports of 250 striking miners became 50 low grade workers not having an impact on production according to the company.

 

Could be an interesting open Monday (higher or lower).

 

Other than the Egypt problems is this one looking a bargain at some stage? Could the falls be overdone? Wait for things to settle?

 

The shape of things to come, Centamin Egypt datapoint

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/18...gypt-datapoint/

[jerpy]

Quick mention on director deal's. Got to hear there has been a number of sells at ARM of late. On checking seems more than just a "number", some big numbers going through as they saw a huge in increase in profits.

 

Guess it makes sense to take advantage of a favourable Goldman's rating

[No6]

More trouble for CEY on Friday, Reuters initial reports of 250 striking miners, became 50 low grade workers not having an impact on production according to the company.

 

Could be an interesting open Monday (higher or lower).

 

It is up about 6% so far today, which considering what has been going on in Libya as well might surprise some.

 

Quick mention on director deal's. Got to hear there has been a number of sells at ARM of late. On checking seems more than just a "number", some big numbers going through as they saw a huge in increase in profits.

 

Guess it makes sense to take advantage of a favourable Goldman's rating

 

Arm has had a good run and now just over 600p. I recall bears thinking this was a short when it was mid 350's, so it has moved on a long way. I think it behaves like a typical IT growth stock, there is a lot of hope and hype built into the price and on fundamentals it is not cheap, but get in at the right time and you can enjoy the ride. Just be careful to get out before each time it slips up though.

[No6]

The bears no doubt are beginning to lick their lips again at the thought of a big drop, but there is room for quite a sell off type correction here that wouldn't signal any major change at all in market direction. Support level at around 5800 on the FTSE, see what happens if that is broken. I have a sneaking feeling that we may fall close to that level and then consolidate. Civil war in Libya and a potential threat to oil and gas supplies from the middle east would change all this. So far the West and the rest of the world have pontificated against the dictators in places like Egypt, Iran and Libya because to some degree they can afford to do so. It will be interesting what they will say if the likes of Saudi Arabia's dictatorship sees unrest.

[No6]

Now there's a surprise.

 

Public finances see surplus after jump in tax receipts

 

The UK's public accounts were in surplus in January after a strong rise in income tax receipts.

 

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the public sector net borrowing measure had a surplus of £3.735bn, higher than expected and the largest surplus since July 2008.

 

January is traditionally a month in which a surplus is recorded, as a range of income tax bills fall due.

 

However, a deficit of £1.266bn was recorded in January last year.

 

Total public borrowing for the year to date now stands at £113bn, £14.1bn lower than at the same point last year.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12534370

[John Doe]

The bears no doubt are beginning to lick their lips again at the thought of a big drop, but there is room for quite a sell off type correction here that wouldn't signal any major change at all in market direction. Support level at around 5800 on the FTSE, see what happens if that is broken. I have a sneaking feeling that we may fall close to that level and then consolidate. Civil war in Libya and a potential threat to oil and gas supplies from the middle east would change all this. So far the West and the rest of the world have pontificated against the dictators in places like Egypt, Iran and Libya because to some degree they can afford to do so. It will be interesting what they will say if the likes of Saudi Arabia's dictatorship sees unrest.

I think you might be right, but I'm happy with 150 ticks for now.

 

The S&P didn't get to the fib retrace when the dow did, so I'm not going to be greedy until (if) they get there together.