No6 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2011 Me too, sold down my gold / silver stocks a few weeks ago and its been sat in cash waiting for an entry point into some good dividend paying stocks, Ive been looking at aviva and Linn Energy. Aviva seemed to be tipped in alot of the year end newspaper financial reviews and has done well since then sadly. I think Aviva may be due a pullback. When I get time I will post a chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2011 For the same reasons as above this is my first post for a very long time. Fortunately I ignored the bears and bought through the crash and beyond. Mainly steel / engineering companies like Sandvik, ABB, SSAB which were hit hard but rebounded back in large part due to exports to developing markets and demand for mining equipment. Many of these were via options which expire in a few months time. I dont think I will give up on equities but rather reduce the risk and buy something boring like an S&P 500 or Euro Stoxx trackers which have reasonable PEs. If there is another crash of ca. 20% I would consider selling the trackers and buying more risky stock. Thanks for posting No.6 !! It has been reasonably safe to buy the upward trend. The bears have been pinning their hopes on a really big move down for some time and all we have seen are minor corrections which can be traded if you like going short, but have never been the big one. Short of defaults or something like the EU/Euro falling apart, which I don't think will happen, I see little change in the markets for the immediate future. The key is to make sure you have a strategy to get out if by chance it does go against you in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2011 A little mixed economic news. German November industrial orders up by 5.2 pct BERLIN (AP) — German industrial orders in November rose by a strong 5.2 percent on the month fueled by brisk foreign demand for capital goods, official data showed Thursday. Domestic industrial orders in November rose by 1.5 percent and demand from abroad was up by 8.2 percent, leading to the "remarkably strong" overall increase of more than 5 percent, Germany's Economy Ministry said. November's uptick followed an increase of 1.6 percent a month earlier. German industrial orders in November were 21.7 percent higher than a year ago, when the financial crisis had plunged the country into its deepest postwar recession, the ministry added. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/g...by-5-2-pct.html UK service sector recovery frozen by December's Arctic blast • Markit/CIPS PMI survey says most firms blame bad weather • Evidence public sector cuts detering customers • Data comes as two more retailers issue profit warnings The recovery in Britain's services sector has been brought to a shuddering halt by the bitterly cold and snowy weather that gripped the UK at the end of 2010. Activity in the services economy fell to a 20-month low in December, with most companies reporting a drop in output during a month when transport networks were disrupted and many people were unable to reach their workplace or local shops and restaurants. Job losses in the sector also increased. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/ja...-frozen-weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ret45 Posted January 7, 2011 Report Share Posted January 7, 2011 Great thread. i have to hold my hands up and admit I have given too much weight to negative news and discounted the impact of QE - right now its seems that the Fed's attitude is that the markets will simply not be allowed to fall. How long this can continue is anybody's guess but probably just a bit longer than I can stay solvent! Good luck in 2011 to bulls and bears alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2011 Great thread. i have to hold my hands up and admit I have given too much weight to negative news and discounted the impact of QE - right now its seems that the Fed's attitude is that the markets will simply not be allowed to fall. How long this can continue is anybody's guess but probably just a bit longer than I can stay solvent! Good luck in 2011 to bulls and bears alike. I came to the conclusion some time ago that extreme bearish views, like extreme bullish ones should be ignored. It isn't that some of their analysis is not correct, it has more to do with the way they see the world. Many bears tend to be in a certain, political/economic camp which disagrees with the way the political/economic world is and I tend to think that this, in some cases subconsciously, distorts their view of the way markets should behave. I've said many times before the market doesn't care what we as individuals think about the way things are and that is why it is often moving in ways that people can't believe when they start to talk about the fundamentals as they see it. I think the best position is to simply accept what the market is doing regardless of personal views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 7, 2011 Report Share Posted January 7, 2011 I came to the conclusion some time ago that extreme bearish views, like extreme bullish ones should be ignored. It isn't that some of their analysis is not correct, it has more to do with the way they see the world. Many bears tend to be in a certain, political/economic camp which disagrees with the way the political/economic world is and I tend to think that this, in some cases subconsciously, distorts their view of the way markets should behave. I've said many times before the market doesn't care what we as individuals think about the way things are and that is why it is often moving in ways that people can't believe when they start to talk about the fundamentals as they see it. I think the best position is to simply accept what the market is doing regardless of personal views. A valid point. I think the problem is a collapsing of distance between one's rational/ fundamental view of the market, and present day market behaviour. This is what makes short-term trading so difficult for someone who's too focused on the fundamentals. If a trader, what's required is the ability to hold those fundamentals at arms length while allowing for present market trends to play out.... which is to wear two hats at once... or even better, not to confuse the two hats when you are looking at the market as either a trader or an investor. I also think that those inclined towards fundamentals are best suited to position trading... which involves more the medium term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 7, 2011 Report Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think a lot of us are almost born/nutured bearish or bullish. I was discussing this with my father in law, who was born into a boom, then left school into a boom and was secure during the recessions in a part of the country that was relatively unscathed. I was born into a crisis, left school in a deep recession in the midlands, started my first business just before another recession hit, etc etc. Guess which of us is bullish and which is bearish? Actually, although my bearish tendencies have helped over the years, his bullish stance have been just as successful. Of course, if we had a mix of the two, we'd be rich! I do try to be less bearish, really, but it’s actually very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2011 UK Christmas Shopping Tracker 6: In the four weeks to December 25 Sainsbury's reported a 10.1% increase in sales, compared with the same period in 2009, while Tesco and Morrisons both experienced a 6.9% rise and Asda a 5.8% one. Sainsbury's sales increase lifted its share of the supermarket industry from 14.9% to 15.4% in the 12 weeks to Christmas Day. Over the same period Tesco, the market leader, had a 27.8% share, Asda had 15.8% and Morrisons had 10.8%, according to initial estimates by Nielsen. The robust performance of the big four supermarkets over December will boost confidence in Britain's retail sector after chains such as Mothercare, Next, HMV, Clinton Cards and celebrity jeweller Theo Fennell blamed wintry weather for disappointing trading figures. HMV's share's fell by more than 20% earlier this week after the high street music retailer announced a sharp drop in sales and plans to close 60 of almost 300 stores in the UK and Ireland. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/ja...christmas-sales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 7, 2011 Report Share Posted January 7, 2011 Share watch 2011: I thought I would try a little experiment. I've picked a few bombed out shares to follow for 2011. None of these should be seen as tips or that I have any interest in owning them, I just want to follow what happens to them over a 12 month period and track their performance. I've picked them because they rely on the UK consumer. If the share price of these pick up then maybe we really do have a full on recovery. HMV - 25.50p Dixons Retail - 23.71p Cable & Wireless Communictions - 49.61p Debenhams - 73.80p Punch Taverns - 76.05p Just picking up on this I'm currently a long way the right side of a HMV short, but wondering whether to take my money and the wrong way (mainly down to fee's) so far of a Wolseley short. Might sound dumb to many, as clearly a lot of burst pipe's, but I do wonder whether they are gaining business on good margins, if at all. That said i'm beginning to think WOS is just a market tracker, so unless the market's turn down, I could feel a bit of heat there - it's only a small play though at the minute. HMV didn't inspire me pre-christmas and their update sounded like a dressed up profit's warning; however i'm cautious from now, as it's already been hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just picking up on this I'm currently a long way the right side of a HMV short, but wondering whether to take my money and the wrong way (mainly down to fee's) so far of a Wolseley short. Might sound dumb to many, as clearly a lot of burst pipe's, but I do wonder whether they are gaining business on good margins, if at all. That said i'm beginning to think WOS is just a market tracker, so unless the market's turn down, I could feel a bit of heat there - it's only a small play though at the minute. HMV didn't inspire me pre christmas and there update sounded like a dressed up profit's warning; however i'm cautious from now, as it's already been hammered. I've read that there was a Russian billionaire picking up HMV's shares. The market seems to be writing the company off, but I look at the figures and see that it is still making profits and trying to transform itself away from relying on cd and dvd sales. The results are bad and they did talk of breeching bank covenants on the debt they have, which went up when they bought Mama live music. Debt is around £150million, but looks serviceble to me especially if they can renegotiate the repayments. I've no idea where this one is going, but I think the market is betting on it going under, thus I'm inclined to take the opposite view. Can't get away from the fact that it still makes pretty big money. If the Russian is serious he wil make a bid if the share price goes much lower as the market value at today's close is £114million on revenues of £2billion and profits of £50millon approx. Has increased revenues, eps and profits in all of the last 4 years, but the share prices is down about 80%. Short sellers love it, something doesn't sit right with me on the valuation unless the market sees it going under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 7, 2011 Report Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've read that there was a Russian billionaire picking up HMV's shares. The market seems to be writing the company off, but I look at the figures and see that it is still making profits and trying to transform itself away from relying on cd and dvd sales. The results are bad and they did talk of breeching bank covenants on the debt they have, which went up when they bought Mama live music. Debt is around £150million, but looks serviceble to me especially if they can renegotiate the repayments. I've no idea where this one is going, but I think the market is betting on it going under, thus I'm inclined to take the opposite view. Can't get away from the fact that it still makes pretty big money. If the Russian is serious he wil make a bid if the share price goes much lower as the market value at today's close is £114million on revenues of £2billion and profits of £50millon approx. Has increased revenues, eps and profits in all of the last 4 years, but the share prices is down about 80%. Short sellers love it, something doesn't sit right with me on the valuation unless the market sees it going under. Whose interest would it be to see it stay low I wonder Don't think it will go under or that much lower myself, just didn't expect it to have a good story this christmas. Ponder over the weekend whether to hold on for full picture to emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2011 Whose interest would it be to see it stay low I wonder Don't think it will go under or that much lower myself, just didn't expect it to have a good story this christmas. Ponder over the weekend whether to hold on for full picture to emerge. I can see a dead cat bounce (it bounced a bit today), but purely on technicals the trend is clearly down, but how much more can be squeezed out of it? I really don't know. I do think the company is better than what the market is saying, but as I've said before I try not to bet against the market (even when they've turned a company's share price into a bit of a joke). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 Quite a good article from the Motley Fool looking at the ups and downs of stock market investing in the last decade. 10 Big Years, 10 Big Stories The Noughties produced more than a few shocks for investors! Now that 2010 is well and truly over, now is a good time to look back at the decade sometimes nicknamed 'the Noughties'. They were anything but a smooth ride for investors. Indeed, by any measure, they saw some of the greatest shocks to the financial system since the darkest days of the Seventies -- or even the Great Depression of the Thirties. http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/...fwflwlnk0000001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think a lot of us are almost born/nutured bearish or bullish. I was discussing this with my father in law, who was born into a boom, then left school into a boom and was secure during the recessions in a part of the country that was relatively unscathed. I was born into a crisis, left school in a deep recession in the midlands, started my first business just before another recession hit, etc etc. Guess which of us is bullish and which is bearish? Actually, although my bearish tendencies have helped over the years, his bullish stance have been just as successful. Of course, if we had a mix of the two, we'd be rich! I do try to be less bearish, really, but it’s actually very difficult. I'm more or less the same, although I have tried to condition myself to not be in either camp. Does the first experience condition our minds to be pessimistic or optimistic about the future? In other words, if our first adult economic experience is a downturn, do we then become more questioning and a non-believer when the upturn comes? Likewise, if it is the other way around, an upturn, do we then not want to believe that a downturn will last for long and soon things will be back to normal? Alternatively, some might say that the British just like to have a good moan at everything and believe that they have the answer to everything if only someone would listen. I come across a lot of people like this. Nothing to do with trading, but I did watch a couple of interesting documentaries this weekend, a mix of the science of how the brain works and psychology. =============== In a compelling and at times disturbing series, Dr Michael Mosley explores the brutal history of experimental psychology. To begin, Michael traces the sinister ways this science has been used to try to control our minds. He finds that the pursuit of mind control has led to some truly horrific experiments and left many casualties in its wake. Extraordinary archive captures what happened - scientists systematically change the behaviour of children; law abiding citizens give fatal electric shocks; a gay man has electrodes implanted in his head in an attempt to turn his sexuality. Michael takes a hallucinogenic drug as part of a controlled experiment to try to understand how its mind-bending properties can change the brain. This is a scientific journey goes to the very heart of what we hold most dear - our free will, and our ability to control our own destiny. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00xh...y_Mind_Control/ What Makes Us Clever? A Horizon Guide to Intelligence http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00x7...o_Intelligence/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2011 Me too, sold down my gold / silver stocks a few weeks ago and its been sat in cash waiting for an entry point into some good dividend paying stocks, Ive been looking at aviva and Linn Energy. Aviva seemed to be tipped in alot of the year end newspaper financial reviews and has done well since then sadly. Aviva charts below. The weekly chart (second) looks more promising than the daily where a downward trend may have started. It has been going up since Dec 1 so a pullback looks on the cards. Looks to have support at 380ish and then around 360. I find the 2/10 day ema crossover works quite well on these longer timeframe charts. On the daily chart the 2 day ema has turned down and now hovering just above the 10 day ema. If it breaks through then there should be more price fall to come, probably to that 380 ish support level. Daily Weekly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted January 10, 2011 Report Share Posted January 10, 2011 Aviva charts below. The weekly chart (second) looks more promising than the daily where a downward trend may have started. It has been going up since Dec 1 so a pullback looks on the cards. Looks to have support at 380ish and then around 360. I find the 2/10 day ema crossover works quite well on these longer timeframe charts. On the daily chart the 2 day ema has turned down and now hovering just above the 10 day ema. If it breaks through then there should be more price fall to come, probably to that 380 ish support level. Daily Weekly Thanks for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2011 How about this for a bull call? Apparently this guy called the bottom. He's now talking S&P 2850 by 2013. Forecaster Laszlo Birinyi -- who apparently correctly called the bottom of the American market 22 months ago -- reckons that the S&P 500 could rise to over 2,850 by September 2013, based on the strength of the present advance in relation to previous stockmarket booms. And last night, the index closed at 1274 -- meaning that there could be a further 120% or so gain from here. "Given the length of the advances that began in 1962, 1982, 1990 and 2002, the current rally should continue for another 32 months," Mr Birinyi is quoted as saying. http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/...fwflwlnk0000001 Laszlo Birinyi says the U.S. stocks rally that began in March 2009 may produce bigger gains than the technology boom of the 1990s, if history is a guide. Birinyi, who was one of the first money managers to advise buying American equities as they bottomed almost 22 months ago, said yesterday that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may increase to 2,854 on Sept. 4, 2013, based on the average size of advances. That requires a 322 percent surge from the low of 676.53 in March 2009, beating the 302 percent rally during the bull market of October 1990 to July 1998. Given the length of the advances that began in 1962, 1982, 1990 and 2002, the current rally should continue another 32 months, he said, citing the average duration. Historical precedent shows gains are largest in the first and last quarters of bull markets, according to research conducted by Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc. The final quarter may start in July 2012 and generate gains of 52 percent, Birinyi said in yesterday’s research report. “This market has a long way to go,” Birinyi said in a telephone interview yesterday. “When we were up in the beginning more than 70 percent, that made us very comfortable in suggesting this was a market of duration, and we concluded that this was going to be a long-term secular bull market.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/b...y-is-guide.html 2008 call. 12/08/2008 http://wallstnation.com/market-bottom-birinyi-120808.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 11, 2011 Report Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wonder what he traded on that call and what he is trading now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 11, 2011 Report Share Posted January 11, 2011 I can see a dead cat bounce (it bounced a bit today), but purely on technicals the trend is clearly down, but how much more can be squeezed out of it? I really don't know. I do think the company is better than what the market is saying, but as I've said before I try not to bet against the market (even when they've turned a company's share price into a bit of a joke). 6% stake now, all being accumulated at conveniantly low prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2011 6% stake now, all being accumulated at conveniantly low prices. You have a 6% stake? Or are you talking about the Russian! If I had that billionaire status and HMV fell to below 10p that would put its market cap at £40million(ish), on revenue of £2billion and profits that match its market cap. I'd snap it up in a second and take it private, get some deal on its debt as I'm sure it still has bags of potential. Reading the article below, the question we should be asking is this; If the stock is worth 77% more as a takeover target at 46p, then why has the company been attacked by the market in the way it has because they think it is going bust? Shows how the market really behaves when they feel there is a chance of making money. HMV Would Rise Most in Europe Retail Deals, Deutsche Bank Says Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- HMV Group Plc offers the greatest potential gain of any European retail stock in the event of a takeover bid, according to Deutsche Bank AG analysts. A private-equity buyer could pay 46 pence per HMV share, 77 percent more than the current share price, to achieve a five- year average return-on-equity of 15 percent, analysts including James G. Collins and Rod Whitehead in London said today in a report on the outlook for global retail-industry deals. The music chain is among the 40 percent of European retailers that “screen very well” as takeover candidates, the analysts said. A share gain of that magnitude depends on Maidenhead, England-based HMV keeping its 2011 profit margin from declining more than Deutsche Bank estimates, the analysts said. Profitability could be “materially lower” than that because of “structural pressures” in music and DVDs, Deutsche Bank said. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-1...-bank-says.html Mamut has built up his stake to 6.1% Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield 29-Apr-06 1,825.90 80.20 17.40p 10.3 n/a -25% 7.40p 4.1% 28-Apr-07 1,684.80 18.70 8.20p 13.8 n/a -53% 7.40p 6.5% 26-Apr-08 1,874.90 52.00 10.10p 12.7 0.6 +23% 7.40p 5.8% 25-Apr-09 1,956.70 61.30 11.10p 13.0 1.3 +10% 7.40p 5.1% 24-Apr-10 2,016.60 68.90 12.70p 6.5 0.5 +14% 7.40p 9.0% Latest F'cast P/E 2.0 3.0 Latest F'cast Div Yield 29.6% 10.8% Share price 25.75p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2011 Remember the one to watch Cairn Energy? Seems to be doing rather well, around 413 and a new uptrend may well be underway. Haven't looked at Cairn Energy for a while on here. It is now 455. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 11, 2011 Report Share Posted January 11, 2011 No. 6 and co. I was wondering what you all thought might be this years xmas/new-year traders target commodity and price? (i.e. pushing up oil a few years back, then the euro pound parity). Oil nearly at $100 FTSE over 6000 (Good call No.6) Dow heading for $12000 Who'd have thought it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 11, 2011 Report Share Posted January 11, 2011 You have a 6% stake? Or are you talking about the Russian! Sorry lack of clarity, like I wish, maybe not though. Just see a concerted shorting effort has been going on and the opposite to WOS sentiment, if you can't beat em, join em. Anyway banked my profit in HMV and took my loss in WOS earlier today on that basis. Trend is my friend, no point being greedy sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 12, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 I thought I would start up a debate on this thread about entry points and when to buy. I'm not suggesting that anyone here should give away their "secrets" re when you buy, but it would be interesting to know the process that we go through when making the decision to buy or not. What is it that you look for? Do you use a mechanical set-up, technical and/or fundamental analysis, or one that mixes intuition and to some degree comes down to a feeling when the set up is right? I find purely mechanical set-ups difficult, in part because I've yet to come across a trading/investment platform that gives me the alerts I need for the set-ups that I have. I therefore have to spend some time monitoring potential watchlists and even then I quite often miss an opportunity. Short of developing my own software for this, and I currently don't have the knowledge or skills to do it, I suspect I will have to carry on as before. I try to keep things simple by looking for a trend that is in place on the longer weekly (sometimes monthly) charts and then concentrate on what is happening on the daily chart. I've largely given up trading off any chart with a timeframe of less than an hour. The main indicators that I tend to use are those that focus on price or support price movement like the Directional Movement trend indicator. I realise that some people like volume, but it isn't something that I've ever been able to use that well, especially with main market stocks. Volume spikes with smaller companies can be a telltale sign of activity that will lead to a much higher price, or fall if it is on the selling side, but with bigger companies I find it not so obvious. It would be good if we can put together ideas from personal experience of what we should be looking for. I'm also looking at getting at some of the psychological aspects of how we feel once the decision has been made to buy and money is committed. Has anyone ever had difficulty with "pulling the trigger" and if so, how did you overcome it? I have, but more on that later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 Just shorted DOW again. 11775 seemed a bit high EDIT that should have said 11750, now it's at 11775, which is where I should have (planned to) shorted it, doh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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