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No6's Financial Markets Thread


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See BDEV and the house builders are up massively, perhaps people are reading our "not so bearish" property threads ;)

 

Housebuilders have a seasonal rally for the first few months of the year......apparently. What with movements in the AIM etc could be some inflation trades going on.

-------------------------

+ re Begbies - I vaguely remember one of their head honchos interviewed for CityAM sometime last year. He said that insolvencies often peak/rise after the recession ends as that is when companies re-order and then run into cash flow difficulties. So in some ways a rising involvency rate would not be a major thing on its own. Good that we dont have problems of that nature.

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Think the santa effect is starting early, seeing a good few small caps frothing up today. What's fueling them in many cases is nothing more than herd behaviour or hype. Markets acting irrational again?

 

I think some of these moves are irrational and it is not just the smaller companies, some of the bigger ones are doing their best impression of an AIM mover in the last few days. There is a lot of good news in the price of some. An example is silver miner Hochschild Mining, a company which I tend to miss on the dip. Since 1/12 the price is up from around 528 to 663 and still looks to be going higher. It's up 6.5% today alone!

 

I can see this going to 700? 800? By Christmas?

 

ScreenShot099.gif

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I think some of these moves are irrational and it is not just the smaller companies, some of the bigger ones are doing their best impression of an AIM mover in the last few days. There is a lot of good news in the price of some. An example is silver miner Hochschild Mining, a company which I tend to miss on the dip. Since 1/12 the price is up from around 528 to 663 and still looks to be going higher. It's up 6.5% today alone!

 

I can see this going to 700? 800? By Christmas?

 

ScreenShot099.gif

 

OK, to the regulars on this thread, would you buy the share above? I purely ask to start some debate and not as investment advice, because this is clearly a momentum share. Price is up, looks to be going higher and the Bollinger Band is exploding to the upside sowhat's not to like? The trouble is, this is a classic example of how our counter intuition says don't buy because the price looks too high, wait for a dip. Of course, often the dip never comes and when you look again it is 10% higher. So, would anyone be tempted at this price level? Will try to keep an eye on this on the thread to see what happens next.

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So, how is the one to watch, Cairn Energy doing at the moment? Looks like it is facing its first trend line to get through to start a new trend. So far things look good for a reversal of the trend, but it needs to steady out from here and then make a further surge up to break the recent downward trend. Bollinger band looks to be opening on the upside and even though the market has been down today, CE has gone against the market. Currently 396p.

 

ScreenShot094.gif

 

Remember the one to watch Cairn Energy? Seems to be doing rather well, around 413 and a new uptrend may well be underway.

 

ScreenShot101.gif

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OK, to the regulars on this thread, would you buy the share above? I purely ask to start some debate and not as investment advice, because this is clearly a momentum share. Price is up, looks to be going higher and the Bollinger Band is exploding to the upside sowhat's not to like? The trouble is, this is a classic example of how our counter intuition says don't buy because the price looks too high, wait for a dip. Of course, often the dip never comes and when you look again it is 10% higher. So, would anyone be tempted at this price level? Will try to keep an eye on this on the thread to see what happens next.

 

Well I have to admit the chart would tend to scare me off. I (still) dont really play the short

term game. A definate victim of counter intuition here.

 

Exceptions being if I were to recycle some profits on juniors into something that was possibly

less scary. Possible but as just mentioned on the Avocet thread I would probably go for the

junior miners ETF - maybe even the HUI type ETF

 

Alternatively I might go in with my monthly drip purchase if it were a share or sector I

really wanted - can manipulate this to skip months or to buy weekly if I desire. Havent

checked but suspect the Gold Wheaton / Silver Wheaton share charts have a similar upwards trajectory and I do fancy getting some action in a dividend player in this space. Just my thoughts - not looking for a tip...

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Well I have to admit the chart would tend to scare me off. I (still) dont really play the short

term game. A definate victim of counter intuition here.

 

The thing is HM has been in an uptrend for more or less the last 2-3 years, after its low of around 48p when the gloom and doom of the credit crunch was at its height and the market reached its low. The fear of further falls would have stopped people buying back then, but 48p to 660p? Great return for anyone brave enough at the time (not many I suspect - counter intuition again), but can it go further given it is a silver miner and silver is in a bull market? Where are people expecting the price of silver to go? This is not necessarily a short term call as the up trend seems set and if anyone likes silver...As always everyone should DYOR, but as an example of being put off by a rising price this is a good one.

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In or not?

 

You're Foolish If You're Not Invested Right Now

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Monday, December 6, 2010

 

"I'm too worried about the [fill in the blank] to invest."

 

Last night, I gave a speech about investing to 100 or so business leaders.

 

The albatross showed up.

 

"I'm too worried about the government/politicians/debts/deficits/to invest," the attendees said.

 

My response to them: "Get that albatross off your neck!"

 

I'm sorry. But I've heard this stuff for my entire career. My friend, there's ALWAYS a reason NOT to invest. It's incredibly easy NOT to invest.

 

It's much more difficult to puff your chest out, hold your head high, set your fears aside, and put your money to work.

 

It's not just you with an albatross. It seems that half the Wall Street legends end up with an albatross they just can't shake...

 

"The dollar is going to hell..."

 

"An oil crisis is coming..."

 

"The deficit will bury us..."

 

"I'm waiting for the mother of all crashes before I buy..."

 

Wall Street legends have been saying these things for years. Some have been saying them for decades. It's true.

 

But the thing is, these guys missed it...

 

They whined all through the '80s that the deficit would crush us. Their albatross was the deficit. But those guys missed the greatest bull market run in the history of the stock market... from 1982 to 2000.

 

Maybe these legends were just protecting their reputations. They'd made their fortunes, and maybe they were subconsciously finding a reason to protect their fortune.

 

You can always find an albatross... something to hide behind... a reason to not invest. But not investing is foolish right now.

 

Think about this. It's simple. We have a one-way bet right now...

 

We have a set of conditions in the stock market that could cause an extraordinary boom in 2011. First, the Fed has set interest rates at zero and is pumping money into the economy. Second, many sectors of the stock market are cheap.

 

More...

 

http://www.dailywealth.com/1557/You-re-Foo...ested-Right-Now

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See BDEV and the house builders are up massively, perhaps people are reading our "not so bearish" property threads ;)

 

On the same day that Artisan reports not so good news, down 13.21% on the day.

 

LONDON (SHARECAST) - At the company’s AGM, Artisan (UK)’s chairman Michael Stevens said trading conditions are the toughest the residential and commercial property developer has ever faced.

 

This has led to a drop in the Artisan share price of more than 10%.

 

This is making it more difficult to complete sales of new homes. Stevens believes that there is underlying demand in the housing market but buyers need to be more confident about the economy and be able to obtain loans more easily for things to turn up. Four bedroom homes are generating the most interest at the moment.

 

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast...tory_id=3886476

 

Think those easy loans are a thing of the past.

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Has anyone watched the series Million Dollar Traders which was on the BBC a while back? It can still be found on youtube and google video and is worth watching if only to see the city trader mentality.

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68cciZYNqn0

 

Eight ordinary people are given $1million, a fortnight of intensive training and two months to run their own hedge fund. Can they make a killing?

 

The experiment reveals the inner workings of a City trading floor. The money is supplied by hedge fund manager Lex Van Dam: he wants to see if ordinary people can beat the professionals, and he expects a return on his investment too. Yet no-one foresees the financial crisis that lies ahead.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00hc27h

 

Interview with Lex van Dam, Financier of BBC Million Dollar Traders

 

Lex van Dam stumbled on his first City job almost by accident but there's been nothing accidental about his success ever since. By contrast, he thinks millions of people who believe their money is in safe hands are taking a massive gamble. Now the man whose TV show Million Dollar Traders proved he could teach complete beginners to outsmart the City experts talks to Paul Mullen about all aspects of his trading experience and the launch of his new trading academy.

 

http://www.trade2win.com/section/articles/...-dollar-traders

 

Interview with Anton Kreil of BBC Million Dollar Traders

 

http://www.trade2win.com/section/articles/...-dollar-traders

 

 

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Yes I saw a few episodes.

 

I was suprised to see just what a casino it has become.

I think what stood out for me was not only the short termism of the trading but also the need to have all the money invested, whether long or short. As this was essentially trying to show how a hedge fund operated, the would be traders needed to hedge their positions and that is a difficult art even for good traders to perfect, let alone newcomers who only had 8 weeks when the markets were in meltdown to do anything. Some of them couldn't do it, but I got the impression that they might have been quite good doing swing, position or momentum trading where you actually wait for your opportunity. Having to be in the market, taking a position because money needs to be working can be a recipe for disaster and lead to decisions being taken not because you want to but because you have to. Funny thing is, for the period of the series, the new traders actually outperformed the market and Lex Van Dam.

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I think what stood out for me was not only the short termism of the trading but also the need to have all the money invested, whether long or short. As this was essentially trying to show how a hedge fund operated, the would be traders needed to hedge their positions and that is a difficult art even for good traders to perfect, let alone newcomers who only had 8 weeks when the markets were in meltdown to do anything. Some of them couldn't do it, but I got the impression that they might have been quite good doing swing, position or momentum trading where you actually wait for your opportunity. Having to be in the market, taking a position because money needs to be working can be a recipe for disaster and lead to decisions being taken not because you want to but because you have to. Funny thing is, for the period of the series, the new traders actually outperformed the market and Lex Van Dam.
.

Exactly, and they weren't pulling any punches about what they thought of those who were even a little cautious. A real boiler room mentality.

 

I remember it was right in the middle of some of the most volatile markets ever.

 

I watched the six million dollar man... back when a million was a lot!

 

:lol: It would be the 6 trillion dollar man today :blink:

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No. 6 and co.

 

I was wondering what you all thought might be this years xmas/new-year traders target commodity and price? (i.e. pushing up oil a few years back, then the euro pound parity).

 

Not something I really concentrate on, but I expect the price of oil to stay high. Oil on the weekly chart is in a nice steady uptrend.

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Santa has come early?

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

 

The Dow is consolidating in a narrow rectangle below resistance at 11450, a bullish sign. Breakout would confirm the S&P 500 and signal an advance to 12000*. Rising Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) reflects strong buying pressure. Reversal below 11000 is now unlikely, but would also warn of a primary trend reversal.

 

=============

 

S&P 500

 

The S&P 500 followed through above 1220 to signal a primary advance. Rising Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) indicates strong buying pressure. The target for a primary advance is 1420*. Reversal below 1180 is most unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

 

=============

 

Transport

 

Dow Jones Transport Index and major components, Fedex and UPS, are all advancing strongly. A bullish sign for the economy.

 

=============

 

Technology

 

The Nasdaq 100 is headed for a test of its 2007 high at 2250. Breakout would signal a fresh primary advance. A Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) trough high above zero again indicates strong buying pressure.

 

=============

 

United Kingdom

 

The FTSE 100 is testing resistance at 5900. Rising Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) indicates buying pressure, but this conflicts with a bearish divergence on the shorter 21-day indicator. Breakout above 5900 would signal an advance to the 2007 high at 6750*, while reversal below 5500 would warn of a primary trend reversal.

 

=============

 

Japan

 

The Nikkei 225 rallied Monday, confirming the breakout above 10200. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-day), however, warns of selling pressure. Expect further consolidation above the new support level. Reversal below 9900 would warn of another correction.

 

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdia...-13_markets.php

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This is a little bullish even for me.... but still, depends on which way the wind blows I guess.

 

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2010/...-ftse-8000.aspx

 

Run the numbers, and it's closer than you think.

 

How long before we see the FTSE 100 rise above 8,000?

 

You might think that the question is insane. After all, in March 2009 -- less than two years ago -- the FTSE sank below 3,500. Scary days, in short, with much talk of The Great Depression.

 

Even today, we're hardly out of the woods. Eurozone worries, public spending cuts as the government tries to bring the deficit under control, tax rises -- it's not difficult to find bad news.

 

Equally, it's not difficult to find good news, although that tends to get less exposure in the media. Right now, there are sparkling figures from the UK's manufacturing sector, strong economic growth in many overseas markets (and many FTSE 100 shares have decent overseas earnings, don't forget), and better-than-expected figures in terms of American consumer and corporate finances.

 

And don't forget, either, that before the FTSE's sickening plunge to 3,500, the index had reached 6,700 -- from where a mere 20% rise would have propelled it past the 8,000 mark.

 

So here are three different takes on how long it will be before we see 8,000.

 

1. Compound growth

The last decade hasn't been as good for stocks as most previous decades, that's for sure. The prestigious annual Barclays Equity/ Gilt study, for instance, has called it The Lost Decade.

 

The study has also dampened down expectations of long-term returns from the FTSE: 7% or so per year, versus the long-term trend of around 9%.

 

So let's take that 7%, and strip out the FTSE's current dividend yield of 3%, which gives us a 4% increase in capital values each year. And now let's apply that 4% growth rate to the FTSE's present level of 5,800.

 

The answer? In short, it's going to take around eight and half years to get there -- some time in mid-2019, in other words.

 

2. Rising earnings

That might be excessively gloomy, though. Let's consider all the data pointing to promising corporate earnings growth.

 

The FTSE 100 is currently trading on a forward P/E of around 12, which is hardly demanding. So let's assume no change in investor sentiment -- in other words, the P/E stays the same -- but factor in rising corporate profitability.

 

The answer? From where we are now, an annual increase in earnings of just over 8%, if sustained for four years, would see the FTSE hit 8,000, assuming a constant P/E of 12. Or, if sustained over three years, an 11% annual increase in earnings would deliver the same level of 8,000.

 

Neither earnings increase figure looks ridiculous to me, bearing in mind where we are in the economic cycle. Better still, a lot of heavy hitters in terms of the FTSE's corporate earnings make-up are poised for a recovery -- beaten-down BP (LSE: BP), for instance, as well as the banks, house builders, insurers and so on.

 

So we're talking a FTSE of 8,000 that may be just three and a half years away -- mid-2014, in other words. That's rather better than mid-2019, for sure.

 

3. Rising P/E

Now let's factor in a change in sentiment as well. Corporate earnings grow at 9%, say, over the next two years, while the market's mood places the FTSE 100 on a P/E of 14 -- again, hardly demanding, and well below (say) the FTSE 250's present P/E of 18.

 

That gives us a level of 8,000 that is just two years away, at the end of 2012.

 

And again, I'd stress, the assumptions aren't demanding or ludicrous: a 9% rise in corporate earnings over two years, and a P/E of 14.

 

Even better, one year's earnings growth of 9% and a slightly higher P/E of 15 would see us hit 8,000 at the end of 2011.

 

Doodles

These calculations, I'd stress, are 'mind games' -- back of the envelope scribbles with a pencil and calculator.

 

Nevertheless, the story that they tell is revealing. When people hear the Fool's David Kuo talk of FTSE 8,000, it's tempting to dismiss such talk as mere speculation. Yet the underlying numbers show how very possible it is.

 

 

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This is a little bullish even for me.... but still, depends on which way the wind blows I guess.

 

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2010/...-ftse-8000.aspx

 

Run the numbers, and it's closer than you think.

 

How long before we see the FTSE 100 rise above 8,000?

 

You might think that the question is insane. After all, in March 2009 -- less than two years ago -- the FTSE sank below 3,500. Scary days, in short, with much talk of The Great Depression.

 

Even today, we're hardly out of the woods. Eurozone worries, public spending cuts as the government tries to bring the deficit under control, tax rises -- it's not difficult to find bad news.

 

Equally, it's not difficult to find good news, although that tends to get less exposure in the media. Right now, there are sparkling figures from the UK's manufacturing sector, strong economic growth in many overseas markets (and many FTSE 100 shares have decent overseas earnings, don't forget), and better-than-expected figures in terms of American consumer and corporate finances.

 

And don't forget, either, that before the FTSE's sickening plunge to 3,500, the index had reached 6,700 -- from where a mere 20% rise would have propelled it past the 8,000 mark.

 

So here are three different takes on how long it will be before we see 8,000.

 

1. Compound growth

The last decade hasn't been as good for stocks as most previous decades, that's for sure. The prestigious annual Barclays Equity/ Gilt study, for instance, has called it The Lost Decade.

 

The study has also dampened down expectations of long-term returns from the FTSE: 7% or so per year, versus the long-term trend of around 9%.

 

So let's take that 7%, and strip out the FTSE's current dividend yield of 3%, which gives us a 4% increase in capital values each year. And now let's apply that 4% growth rate to the FTSE's present level of 5,800.

 

The answer? In short, it's going to take around eight and half years to get there -- some time in mid-2019, in other words.

 

2. Rising earnings

That might be excessively gloomy, though. Let's consider all the data pointing to promising corporate earnings growth.

 

The FTSE 100 is currently trading on a forward P/E of around 12, which is hardly demanding. So let's assume no change in investor sentiment -- in other words, the P/E stays the same -- but factor in rising corporate profitability.

 

The answer? From where we are now, an annual increase in earnings of just over 8%, if sustained for four years, would see the FTSE hit 8,000, assuming a constant P/E of 12. Or, if sustained over three years, an 11% annual increase in earnings would deliver the same level of 8,000.

 

Neither earnings increase figure looks ridiculous to me, bearing in mind where we are in the economic cycle. Better still, a lot of heavy hitters in terms of the FTSE's corporate earnings make-up are poised for a recovery -- beaten-down BP (LSE: BP), for instance, as well as the banks, house builders, insurers and so on.

 

So we're talking a FTSE of 8,000 that may be just three and a half years away -- mid-2014, in other words. That's rather better than mid-2019, for sure.

 

3. Rising P/E

Now let's factor in a change in sentiment as well. Corporate earnings grow at 9%, say, over the next two years, while the market's mood places the FTSE 100 on a P/E of 14 -- again, hardly demanding, and well below (say) the FTSE 250's present P/E of 18.

 

That gives us a level of 8,000 that is just two years away, at the end of 2012.

 

And again, I'd stress, the assumptions aren't demanding or ludicrous: a 9% rise in corporate earnings over two years, and a P/E of 14.

 

Even better, one year's earnings growth of 9% and a slightly higher P/E of 15 would see us hit 8,000 at the end of 2011.

 

Doodles

These calculations, I'd stress, are 'mind games' -- back of the envelope scribbles with a pencil and calculator.

 

Nevertheless, the story that they tell is revealing. When people hear the Fool's David Kuo talk of FTSE 8,000, it's tempting to dismiss such talk as mere speculation. Yet the underlying numbers show how very possible it is.

 

I did read that yesterday and was going to post it but forgot. I heard on the radio the other day that FTSE100 now gets 65% of its profits from overseas, so it is amazing that there are still people (mainly bears) that try to link the performance of the British economy with the FTSE100 and wonder why it is still going up. Given central banks intention to create inflation across the world, I can see the FTSE going to these sort of levels over time because like other financial markets it will represent a store of value in any reflation. Possible that the world economy could reverse I suppose, but the bears argument is relying increasingly on fear factors, bank default, country default, collapse of euro, etc, in other words a big event. I'm struggling to see it myself, although big debt issues remain, it should be remembered that for the most part this financial world economy likes debt.

 

This from around the time of the Greek fallout in May.

 

Buy global firms, sell domestic ones About 70% of earnings from companies in the FTSE 100 are made overseas, so international events will have more bearing on markets than the hung parliament.

 

Ted Scott at F&C, the fund manager, said: “I don’t believe things will get as bad as they did in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed — Lehman was more widely held than Greek debt. What’s more, the global economy is now recovering and companies are fundamentally strong.”

 

Advisers recommend buying blue-chip firms that will provide a cushion against further falls in markets while also benefiting from a decline in the pound, which makes their overseas earnings worth more in sterling.

 

Kevin Gardiner at Barclays Wealth said: “We are advising clients to buy FTSE 100 firms — which is the most international of the larger stock markets — and so partially hedged against domestic risk.”

 

Buxton is keen on Footsie-listed miners hit by the Australian government’s plans to introduce a 40% tax on the mining sector in 2012, on the basis that markets have overreacted to the news. He likes Rio Tinto, which fell 6% on the tax announcement, and Xstrata, down 8%.

 

He also favours banks such as the Lloyds Banking Group, down 42% over 12 months, and Royal Bank of Scotland, down 18%, as well as retailers Debenhams, down 31%, and Home Retail Group, up 8%.

 

If you would rather buy a fund than shares, a good play would be Tom Dobell’s M&G Recovery, which is up only 5% this year, but would benefit from sterling weakness, according to Algy Smith-Maxwell, a multi-fund manager at Jupiter.

 

While sterling weakness is good news for larger firms, it could hit smaller ones. Adrian Lowcock of Bestinvest, the adviser, said: “UK smaller companies are more geared towards domestic growth and earnings and therefore will not benefit as much from a devaluation of the currency. They have fewer resources and are not as able to weather the storm as large companies.”

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/inv...icle7120200.ece

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Official UK price inflation up again. Another letter on the way from swervin Mervyn to the Government no doubt justifying 0.5% IRs to be maintained for another year or two. Is it 3 years now (or 4?) that they have been saying they expect lower inflation in a years time?

 

How prices have risen in the past year

 

* Food and drink: 5.5%

* Alcohol and tobacco: 6.5%

* Clothes and footwear: 2.1%

* Furniture and household items: 3.5%

* Transport: 5.1%

 

UK inflation rate rises to 3.3% in November.

 

Christmas shoppers The Bank of England still expects inflation to ease in the medium term

 

The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) annual inflation rate rose to 3.3% in November, up from 3.2% in October.

 

It followed record price rises for the October to November period in food, clothing and furniture.

 

Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation - which includes mortgage interest payments - rose to 4.7% from 4.5%.

 

=================

 

Spending slowdown

 

Some believe that the VAT rise from 17.5% to 20% will provide a screen that will allow retailers to put through more extensive price increases.

 

A report released on Tuesday by KPMG said that 60% of retailers and consumer product manufacturers planned to increase their prices over and above the VAT rise.

 

"There a number of things that are going to hit them, like fuel costs going up," said Martin Scott from KPMG. "So they are going to be under a lot of pressure to increase prices."

 

A British Retail Consortium spokesman, however, said the report was "nonsense".

 

The inflation rate has now remained above the 2% target by one percentage point or more for 12 months, and the Bank of England's governor, Mervyn King, has had to write four letters to the chancellor this year as a result.

 

But with the new government having announced the biggest round of budget cuts since World War II, the Bank still expects the resulting slowdown in spending to bring inflation down over the next two years.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11989353

 

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Approaching the top of the trend ... FTSE-update

001mg.gif

 

Some folks that I rate expect a pop in the SPX to 1210-1220 today, and then the selloff starts.

 

I'm not buying into Ken Fisher's +16%, but the market action today is quite critical.

 

Little over one month on and that 6000 appears again in the sights.

 

Where do you see the technical top out of interest Dr Bubb?

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These small charts fom the IG Index newsletter show a new 20/50 crossover on the FTSE 100 and a continuation after a bounce off the 50ma on the 250. Could be setting up for a further move up as we get to the end of the year.

 

FTSE100

IGIFTSE100.gif

 

FTSE250

IGIFTSE250.gif

 

DAX30

IGIdax.gif

 

The US is certainly looking up.

 

DOW

IGIdow.gif

 

S&P

IGISPX.gif

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Be interesting to see what happens to BP tomorrow.

 

Gulf of Mexico oil leak: US sues BP over oil disaster

 

The Deepwater Horizon before it sank in April The Deepwater Horizon rig explosion led to the worst environmental catastrophe in US history

 

The US is suing BP and eight other firms for allegedly violating federal safety regulations in connection with the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12005240

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